2026 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: This year's George Springer and more Fantasy wildcards
Identifying players who could overperform or disappoint in 2026
By
Chris Towers
•
13 min read
57 days until Opening Day …
"Who will be this year's George Springer?"
Nobody, probably?
This is an exercise we try to do every year, and the truth is, if anyone could have seen George Springer's massive 2025 season coming, it wouldn't have been such a surprise. One of the beautiful things about baseball is that, while we're generally pretty good at predicting a lot of what's about to happen, there are enough totally unknowable variables in play that there will always be huge surprises coming our way. Stuff that there is simply no way to see coming.
And yet, we try. We did a "This year's …" discussion on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast a few weeks ago, and I think it's a useful exercise. Sure, we'll get most of these wrong, but the point is to try to expand your view of what is possible for these players. So many Fantasy analysts focus on single-outcome analysis, but the truth is, every player has a wide range of possible outcomes, and hitting on just a few outliers (or avoiding the wrong ones) can go a long way toward making your team into a contender.
So, that's what we're looking for today. Before we get there, though, we've had a lot of news around MLB recently, so let's get a quick recap of what you might have missed over the past few days:
- Cody Bellinger re-signed with the Yankees. As we all expected. Bellinger's skill set isn't quite as impressive as his actual production last season, but returning to this lineup and ballpark should continue to help cover up for that. He's a top-20 outfielder, at least.
- Freddy Peralta was traded to the Mets. I wrote about this deal a few days ago, and it's just about as good a landing spot as you could hope for when a pitcher is leaving a supporting cast as good as Milwaukee's. On the Brewers side, they acquired Brandon Sproat and Jett Williams, two prospects who could matter in 2025 – though I'm not necessarily a huge fan of either's skill set.
- Mackenzie Gore was traded to the Rangers. I wanted a change of scenery for Gore, and we got it. Will getting away from the Nationals fix his shortcomings? There's certainly no guarantee of that, but when you've got the kind of swing-and-miss stuff Gore does, landing with a solid supporting cast and excellent ballpark like Texas' is enough to get me to buy back in.
- The White Sox signed Seranthony Dominguez to a two-year deal. Dominguez is expected to close for the White Sox, making him a viable target in the middle rounds of drafts coming off a season with a 3.16 ERA (3.47 FIP) and 11.3 K/9. However, he's obviously a candidate to be traded at the deadline to a contender. In fact, that's almost certainly the plan.
- Willi Castro signed a two-year contract with the Rockies. The hope here is Coors Field inflates Castro's batting average enough to get him back to Fantasy relevance. It's another long shot, but as a late-round flier who enters the season with eligibility at second base, third base, and outfield (and could gain shortstop), he's an interesting flier.
- Isaac Paredes will get some spring reps at second base. One of the biggest looming questions heading into Spring Training is how the Astros will split up playing time. Jose Altuve figures to get most of his playing time at second base, but he'll fill in in the outfield, too. I'm hoping Paredes can be something like a super-utility player, who just plays somewhere every day, but there's some real playing time risk here until we get a better sense of their plans. The good news is that's keeping Paredes' price reasonable enough that I'm willing to make the bet on him getting enough playing time when all it costs is a pick outside of the top 150.
And now, let's look for This year's George Springer … and so much more:
This year's ____
This year's George Springer
A veteran bat who finds the fountain of youth
With consecutive sub-.700 OPS seasons, Semien sure looks like he's hit the wall. But when you look under the hood, it's a little less obvious that he's completely lost it. His average exit velocity in 2025 was 88.3 mph, right in line with his 2023 mark and actually ahead of 2022; his 17.4% strikeout rate is a few points higher than 2023 and 2024, but right in line where he was in 2022 and actually below his mark from the previous couple of seasons; and his 23.8% pulled-air rate is right where he's been for years. We care less about defense when talking Fantasy, but he remains an elite defender, too, a sign that his athleticism hasn't collapsed, either; he's also remained above the 80th percentile sprint speed, to back that up.
Which is all to say, while I don't expect Semien to return to being a top-five player in Fantasy or anything, I still think there's room for him to be a very valuable player at a significantly reduced cost. His move to the Mets will coincide with a slide down the lineup, which will hurt his counting stats, though it also comes with a lineup and park upgrade that could be pretty substantial; according to BaseballSavant's Statcast data, Semien would have hit 87 homers over the past three seasons at Citi Field, compared to just 71 at Globe Life Field, his previous home.
At a weak second base position, Semien still ranks just 19th in ADP in NFBC drafts. Even if all you get is a return to 2024 levels of production, that's a huge win, as he finished as the No. 5 2B that season. I don't think that's asking too much.
This year's Bryan Woo/Cristopher Sanchez
A non-rookie pitcher going in the 100-200 range who takes a big step forward
I made the case for Pepiot in my Breakouts 1.0 column, and it basically comes down to this: Pepiot is already a very good pitcher, so the step forward I'm expecting mostly comes from a change in his circumstances. The Rays are moving back to Tropicana Field after a season spent in the very hitter-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field. Tropicana Field is a much more pitcher-friendly venue, and it is pitcher-friendly in a way that seems likely to help a fastball-reliant pitcher like Pepiot more than most. His strikeout rate for his career at Tropicana is 28%, and his fastball whiff rate was significantly higher in 2024 than 2025. If all he does is get back to that level while consolidating the other gains he made in 2025, we could be looking at a low-3.00s ERA and 200-plus strikeouts for the first time in his career.
This year's Byron Buxton
An injury-prone veteran hitter who stays healthy and provides excess value
I think Alvarez is pretty obviously one of the best values in drafts right now, for one very specific reason: When the only argument against a player is "they can't stay healthy," well, you just need one thing to go right. We saw it with Buxton, who went seven straight seasons without playing more than 102 games before he got through 126 last season. Even missing a quarter of the season made Buxton a huge value in 2025 drafts, and Alvarez is well situated to do the same thing in 2026.
Let's say you only get 126 games out of Alvarez in 2026 (nevermind that he topped that mark in three out of four seasons from 2021 through 2024, a much better track record than Buxton's). What could that look like? Well, for his career, here's Alvarez's 126-game pace:
- .297 average, 80 runs, 32 homers, 91 RBI, 2 SB
Wouldn't that be worth a pick at Alvarez's current price, which sits at 40.8 in early NFBC drafts? And that's not even accounting for two facts that people often forget when talking about players who "can't stay healthy":
- You don't just take a zero in your lineup when he's out.
- He might just, you know, play 145 games and totally smash his price.
This is a first-round caliber hitter with one flaw. Maybe that flaw will prove fatal to his Fantasy value. But I take heart in knowing that Alvarez has mostly avoided knee issues the past few seasons. His absence in 2025 was mostly due to a misdiagnosed fractured hand, and that just isn't the kind of thing I expect to be an issue moving forward. Don't be surprised if we're drafting Alvarez with a top-20 pick next season.
This year's Emilio Pagan
A reliever who takes over an ambiguous bullpen and has a huge season
Take your pick from Tampa's bullpen, really – it could very well be Griffin Jax, another elite arm. I'm willing to give the crown to Uceta, just because I get the feeling Jax might be viewed as a more flexible weapon out of the pen, thanks to his history as a starter. Uceta stumbled early last season as he dropped his arm slot and saw diminished effectiveness across his entire arsenal, but from June 1 on, he posted a 3.23 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 38% strikeout rate. The Rays might just opt for a return to their bullpen-by-committee approach, but if you're not planning to pay up for saves early in your draft, I think both Uceta and Jax should be a big part of your plans in any league.
This year's Jarren Duran
Someone whose career year proved unsustainable
I hate this one. Schwarber is awesome and has been for a long time. But 2025 was almost certainly the best we'll ever see from him as he enters his age-33 season. There would be nothing wrong with a return to his 2024 levels, when he hit .248 with 38 homers and 214 combined runs and RBI, but … well, there's a reason his ADP was 69.1 coming off that season.
And then there's this: Schwarber is DH only, and seems pretty unlikely to gain eligibility anywhere else any time soon. I suppose a Bryce Harper injury could force him into action at first base, but the Phillies haven't actually played him there in four seasons with the team. He did eventually play eight games in left field last season, so in a CBS league, he did gain outfield eligibility, but not until mid-June. Schwarber's current price has him as a second-round pick, and while I think that's mostly reasonable, it's not a pick I relish making because of the way he narrows your path through the draft. Not only are you locking up your DH spot with one of your most valuable picks, but you're doing so with a player who, in a best-case scenario, won't help you in batting average and very well may be an active detriment. You'll have to be cognizant of your batting average the rest of the way without the luxury of positional flexibility the rest of the way. It's a tough path to walk, even if it isn't impossible to make it work.
This year's Lawrence Butler
A player who does not live up to the hype machine
This one hurts. I think Ben Rice is an awesome hitter, and I don't think his top-10 ranking in expected wOBA last year is an unreasonable ceiling expectation for him if everything comes together. But, while stats like xwOBA do have a high degree of correlation from one year to the next, it's never perfect, and you can't assume he'll pull off a repeat. And that's without even getting into the fact that Rice has underperformed his xwOBA in both MLB seasons to date, which isn't proof he'll keep doing it forever, but is a sign that there might be something limiting his upside that we aren't accounting for. He figures to face left-handed pitching more often in 2026, which should give him a higher ceiling for counting stats, but which could also adversely impact his rate stats.
But this one mostly just comes down to price: In 52 drafts so far in January, Rice's ADP is up to 47.1, making him the No. 2 catcher and No. 29 hitter overall. As much as I like Rice, are we really ready to say he's a better player than William Contreras, who is one year removed from being one of the 10 most valuable hitters in Fantasy (and who also out-earned Rice in 2025, a down season).
There's always a player who becomes everyone's "one-up" guy – the player who always gets pushed up one spot in every draft until their price becomes totally unreasonable. I think we're already there with Rice.
This year's Aaron Nola
A veteran pitcher who falls off a cliff
Bieber returned from Tommy John surgery at the end of 2025 and generally looked pretty good – including the playoffs, he had 55 strikeouts to 13 walks in 59 innings of work while putting up a 3.66 ERA. It wasn't unreasonable to assume he'd be even better with a healthy offseason, but that was before we learned that this might actually not be a healthy offseason. Bieber dealt with forearm fatigue at the end of the season, and while he's expected to be ready for Spring Training, general manager Ross Atkins acknowledged in December that they will likely have to limit Bieber's workload during the spring.
And suddenly, Bieber's decision to exercise his $16 million option rather than hitting free agency makes a lot more sense.
If Bieber is healthy, there's a lot to like about him. But he hasn't had a fully healthy season since 2022 at this point, and the fact that he couldn't even make it through 60 innings in his return from elbow surgery without a scare doesn't bode well for his chances of getting through 2026 unscathed. He's already on the wrong side of 30 and has always had a fairly narrow margin for error thanks to his proclivity for giving up hard contact. Bieber's price has slid enough in recent drafts (185.4 ADP) to make him worth the risk, but he definitely is a risk.
This year's Geraldo Perdomo
A hitter going outside the top 400 in ADP who returns top-50 value
Yeah, this one is likely to be wrong. I acknowledge that. Nobody saw Perdomo's breakout coming, after all. Lawlar remains a very young, very skilled player who has proven all he can in the minors, so now it's time for the Diamondbacks to finally give him the chance to sink or swim in the majors. It's not clear where that is going to happen after the trade for Nolan Arenado, though he is expected to compete for a job in the outfield this spring. The Diamondbacks' seeming lack of faith in Lawlar is a red flag, but I'll take a late-round flier on a guy who has averaged 27 homers and 44 steals per-150 games in Double-A and Triple-A every day of the week.
This year's Trevor Rogers
A potential league-winning pitcher who nobody sees coming
Is this one cheating? White has never pitched in the majors, which seems to go against the spirit of the Trevor Rogers part of the question. But his ADP in January is just 472.6, despite the path to an Opening Day job becoming a lot more clear after the trades of Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers in recent weeks. Regarding his chances of making the rotation out of spring, I'd say this: White is probably on the outside looking in at this point, but his fate is probably in his own hands, too. If he dominates this spring, White could force the issue, in other words.
And he might just dominate. He's coming off a season where he reached Triple-A as a 20-year-old and put up a 2.31 ERA and a massive 39% strikeout rate in 89.2 innings of work. The walk rate (14%) needs to improve, obviously, but that's surely going to be the developmental focus for White this offseason. If the command takes a leap, the big lefty could pitch is way into the Marlins plans a lot sooner than you might expect, so this is definitely one to watch this spring.
(If you do consider this one to be against the spirit of the exercise, I'll also throw Reid Detmers out there. He pitched well out of the bullpen for the Angels in 2025, still has very good stuff, and should be given a chance to return to the rotation this spring. If the velocity jump from last season sticks, he's going to be a popular late-round flier in drafts this spring).
