luis-garcia.jpg

Here's the thing about bold predictions: They need to be bold.

You might think that goes without saying, but the "bold" modifier is often used reflexively as if no other sort of prediction exists. And sure, the very act of predicting is in some way bold, but if every prediction is described as bold, then how do we distinguish the ones that are genuinely bold?

What do I mean I mean by genuinely bold? Like, a little crazy. A bold prediction should push the boundaries of what's possible. The odds are against it being literally correct, but hopefully, it'll at least be directionally correct. It's exaggerating to drive home a point, in other words, but with the important caveat that the exaggeration is at least within the realm of possibility.

And hey, some of my bold predictions for 2024, made at this time last year, have actually come true. Here are the ones worth highlighting (you, um, can ignore the rest):

Let's see if these bold predictions for 2025 turn out to be just as accurate.

Wyatt Langford outperforms every rookie hitter

Why compare Langford, who will at that point be in his sophomore season, to members of the 2025 rookie class? Well, he was the most hyped hitter in this year's rookie class and, suffice it to say, disappointed. So now his hype will transfer to some fresh face who'll be expected to hit the ground running in what's become an unforgiving league for rookie hitters. Rather than pay the premium for a much-hyped rookie, I've reached the point where I'd prefer to invest in a post-hype sophomore, especially when, as is true for Langford, so much of the underlying data confirms his high ceiling, from the respectable exit velocities and plate discipline to the optimal spray angle and sprint speed.

Junior Caminero becomes a top-five third baseman

Caminero has just barely used up his rookie eligibility, putting him in the same post-hype sophomore discussion as Wyatt Langford, and as with Langford, I'm expecting him to make a leap now that he's had a chance to get his feet wet. The 21-year-old hit the ball as hard as any minor-leaguer the past couple years, and even for as little time as he's spent in the majors, only 15 players have a better max exit velocity in 2024. Also like Langford, there are no concerns in the strikeout department, so it's only a matter of time before all that hard contact turns into damage. With Gunnar Henderson, Elly De La Cruz, Vladimir Guerrero, and Spencer Steer all losing third base eligibility next year, there are vacancies to be filled at the top of the position.

Luis Garcia finishes as the No. 4 second baseman

Speaking of new vacancies at a position, second base will be without Mookie Betts, Spencer Steer, and Xavier Edwards next year, and with Marcus Semien beginning to fade, there's a need for a fourth wheel behind Ketel Marte, Jose Altuve, and Ozzie Albies. Jordan Westburg belongs in the discussion, and Jackson Holliday clearly has the upside. My bolder side nominates Garcia, though, who's been one of this year's quieter breakouts with newfound speed, continued power growth, and one of the best profiles for batting average, judging by his 91st percentile xBA. My hope is he'll get more opportunities against lefties next year.

Spencer Schwellenbach is better than Spencer Strider

It's not because I think Strider will disappoint. Remember, his season was lost not to ligament damage but to a bone fragment putting pressure on the ligament, which was presented as great news and suggests a straightforward recovery. And truthfully, it's hard to imagine any pitcher being better than a healthy Strider, but how else can I stress to you the upside of Schwellenbach? He stands out most for his strike-throwing, with a 69 percent rate that would rank near the top of the MLB leaderboard, and has learned to optimize his six-pitch arsenal for more swing-and-miss. His second half swinging-strike rate of 16 percent would also rank near the top of the leaderboard. The only other pitchers who rank that high in those two critical metrics are Tarik Skubal and Shota Imanaga.

Lawrence Butler has a higher combined home run and stolen base total than James Wood

Yeah, we've seen Butler hit .326 (71 for 218) with 19 homers, 10 steals, and a 1.043 OPS since the start of July, which perhaps makes this claim not so bold. But it wasn't really on anyone's bingo card, which invites skepticism. Wood, meanwhile, was the much-hyped midseason call-up who's made a strong enough first impression that Fantasy Baseballers are sure to swoon over him on Draft Day -- and perhaps for good reason. To me, though, Wood's inflated ground-ball rate (57 percent) is as big of a risk factor as anything in Butler's profile, at least in terms of maxing out his potential. Butler may have more downside risk, but if he continues to strike out at the 17.8 percent rate he's had since the start of July, that downside is harder to see.

Bailey Ober wins the AL Cy Young award

You might ask, wallet in hand if I believe this prediction as firmly as I did for Tarik Skubal at this time last year, and the answer is no. What I'm mostly looking to do here is stress that Bailey Ober has arrived as a Fantasy ace. If you take out the nine-run disaster on Aug. 26, when things obviously went sideways on him, he has a 1.70 ERA and 0.62 WHIP in the second half. If you take out both it and the eight-run disaster way back on March 31, he has a 2.85 ERA and 0.88 WHIP on the year. He's a proven strike-thrower, a master at hit prevention, and a natural workhorse at 6-feet-9. Next year is when he puts it all together.

Garrett Crochet also wins a Cy Young award

You might think I'm hedging my bet since Crochet, like Bailey Ober, is in the AL. But see, I expect the White Sox to trade Crochet in the offseason, and presuming they do, he's slightly more likely to go to an NL team than an AL team since the White Sox obviously can't trade him to themselves. And really, they'd be fools not to trade him. He's regarded as an ace now and only under control for two more years. Any injury during that time could tank his stock, which is why they've kept him in bubble wrap since the All-Star break. With a contender, he could really let loose, and seeing as he leads all starting pitchers in K-BB% and xFIP, the results could be studly indeed.

Oneil Cruz reaches the 40-homer threshold

Cruz is only going to get halfway there in his first full major-league season, which is sure to strike some as a disappointment. But what this season has confirmed is that his ability to impact the baseball is second to no one. He set a Statcast record for hardest-hit ball upon reaching the majors in 2022 and once again leads the league in that category this year. He also ranks in the top six for average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. The next step for the 25-year-old is to optimize how the ball comes off the bat, but that's much more teachable than what Cruz already brings to the table.

Bo Bichette has a bounce-back season ... for the Braves

I'll leave the how to people smarter than me, but this move makes sense on a number of levels. Bichette is entering his walk year for a Blue Jays organization in need of a fresh start. They're flush with young infielders but have other long-term needs to fill. Meanwhile, Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos won't want to risk a repeat of this season's offensive misfortunes, and the one position where the Braves clearly have room to upgrade is shortstop. Anthopoulos is known for acquiring players coming off down seasons, which Bichette certainly is, but 2024 represents the first time the 26-year-old has hit less than .290 across a six-year career. The underlying data is largely unchanged, too, suggesting it was merely a blip.

Manny Machado has the best year of his career

A career year for a possible Hall of Famer like Machado would really be something. The mark to beat is probably his 2018 season -- the one split between the Orioles and Dodgers -- when he hit .297 with 37 homers, 14 steals, 107 RBI, and a .905 OPS, but he's had several seasons that have come close, including 2022 with the Padres. His production has slipped a little the past two years, which you might presume has to do with him being on the wrong side of 30, but in both years, he was plagued by the same elbow injury, playing through it in 2023 before having surgery to correct it prior to 2024. We saw him get comfortable finally at the start of June, and since then, he's hit .301 with 21 homers, six steals, and a .900 OPS. Pace those numbers out and, well ...

Zac Gallen spends most of the year on the IL

Here's one bit of intuition that's served me well over the years: When a pitcher begins to perform erratically, with weird fluctuations in control and velocity and a general feeling of unease surrounding his every start, an injury is likely behind it. That goes double for one whose elbow ligament has been called into question before, as Gallen's was in 2021. Come now, aren't bold predictions supposed to be fun? Hey, if Gallen is healthy next year, he'll likely be tons of fun. But if he isn't, you'll wish I had warned you, won't you?

Max Fried has trouble finding a free-agent deal to his liking

Speaking of erratic performances and a general feeling of unease surrounding his every start ... have you seen how Fried's season is going? He's had stretches where he's looked fairly normal, but particularly since returning from an IL stint in early August, his control hasn't been up to its usual standards. And what was it that put him on the IL? Why, a forearm injury -- something that also cost him time last year. The forearm connects to the UCL, as you may well know, though by all accounts, Fried's is fine. Still, if something shows up on his physical this offseason that makes his free agency a headache for everyone involved, it wouldn't be the most surprising development.

One of Dansby Swanson and Nick Hoerner is traded

Beyond just him being a poor fit for Wrigley Field, part of what made the Cubs' acquisition of Isaac Paredes at the trade deadline so surprising is that he plays the same position as the team's top prospect, Matt Shaw. And it's hard to claim he's just a stopgap measure when he's under team control through 2027. But Shaw has also seen time at second base and shortstop in the minors, opening the door for him to step in at one of those positions (most likely second base) instead. Either Swanson or Hoerner could man shortstop for the next couple years, so the other could be used as trade bait. Or maybe the Cubs will look to flip Paredes and begin anew with Shaw next spring.

Xavier Edwards has a season that rivals Luis Castillo's (no, the other one) best with the Marlins

You know Luis Castillo as a starting pitcher for the Mariners, but your grandpappy knows him as a second baseman for the Marlins. That Luis Castillo did some special things, too, regularly hitting over .300 while competing for the league lead in steals -- and doing so with virtually zero pop. His most exemplary season was probably 2000, when he hit .334 with two homers and 62 steals. That's not a combination of numbers we're accustomed to seeing in the modern game, but another Marlins middle infielder, Xavier Edwards, is attempting to bring it back. After hitting .347 at Triple-A the past two years, he's now batting .328 in 54 major-league games with a 162-game pace of 75 stolen bases.

Heston Kjerstad is the second-best hitter for the Orioles

The Orioles are so flush with offensive talent that up-and-comers like Kjerstad have been put on ice. But with Anthony Santander and Eloy Jimenez entering free agency this offseason, the thaw is coming. Kjerstad has hit .303 with a .934 at Triple-A Norfolk over the past two years and has looked more comfortable in his big-league chances this year than he did last year. Clearly, the potential is there, and presuming Santander and Jimenez walk, the path will be clear finally for the second overall pick in the 2020 draft. He'll be 26, too, which sort of ramps up the urgency.

A.J. Puk becomes the Diamondbacks closer

Justin Martinez seemed like the logical choice to step into the closer role when Paul Sewald proved no longer up to the task, but it hasn't gone well. Between Martinez's shaky control and his ground-ball tendencies, the amount of base activity has likely given manager Torey Lovullo an ulcer or two. Meanwhile, left-hander A.J. Puk, who spent some time in the closer role for the Marlins last year, has emerged as an ace reliever since coming over at the trade deadline, putting together a 0.47 ERA, 0.58 WHIP and 14.7 K/9 across 21 appearances. A switcheroo seems inevitable, perhaps even coming before the end of this season.

The Red Sox have an infield shakeup that ends with Kristian Campbell playing ... somewhere

A no-name coming into the year, Campbell has become one of my favorite prospects, having slashed .329/.439/.558 with 20 homers and 24 steals across three levels. The next level is the final one, and the 22-year-old has proven deserving of that challenge. Unfortunately, it'll take moving Ceddanne Rafaela back to the outfield now that Trevor Story is squarely in the mix at shortstop, and other second base options like Marcelo Mayer, Vaughn Grissom, and Chase Meidroth will likely have a say as well. The Red Sox have so much up-and-coming talent up the middle that they may need a trade to sort it all out, but Campbell is the one to watch for next year.

Jackson Jobe, Quinn Mathews, and Bubba Chandler all make the Opening Day roster

This past spring saw a trio of high-end hitting prospects -- Wyatt Langford, Jackson Chourio, and Jackson Merrill -- force their way onto the big-league roster, and I think we could see the same for these pitching prospects next spring. All three have mastered Double-A already and at least gotten their feet wet at Triple-A. All three have the sort of overpowering arsenals that are sure to attract attention during the otherwise humdrum exhibition season. Putting a rookie pitcher on the Opening Day roster is harder to justify because of the workload concerns it's likely to raise (an organization can ramp him up slower if he starts out in the minors), but we saw the Pirates do it with Jared Jones this year.

Andrew Painter takes more of the Paul Skenes route

That slower ramp-up is almost certainly the path the Phillies will take with Painter, who you may remember was poised to make their starting rotation as a 19-year-old in 2023. Tommy John surgery ended that dream, but by the time spring training begins in 2025, he'll have had nearly two full years to recover. He'll also likely have strict workload restrictions, which is why I could see the Phillies sending him to Triple-A in April, having him use that month as sort of his own spring training, before bringing him into the fold in May. It's similar to the way the Pirates introduced Paul Skenes this year, and Painter has a chance to be just as impactful. In his last minor-league season, remember, he had a 1.56 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 13.5 K/9 across 22 starts.

Jonathan Aranda is traded somewhere to be the everyday first baseman -- and thrives

You may be over Aranda, but I won't give in until he's gotten an honest chance in the majors, meaning more than just occasional starts as an injury fill-in or late-season call-up. He looked like he'd get that chance coming out of spring training, but a broken finger put him on the sidelines and sent him down a wayward path of increased strikeouts and reduced exit velocities. It was only after a second IL stint for an oblique strain that he got back to looking like the player who slashed .339/.449/.613 with 25 homers in 95 games at Triple-A Durham last year, but by that point, it was nearly September and he was back to having a sparse role with the big club. At 26, it's time to see what he can do, and maybe a team like the Astros can give him that chance, as the Cubs have done with Michael Busch (formerly of the Dodgers) this season.