Alek Manoah and Mike Soroka are two of the most well known and highly rostered minor-leaguers.
They're no longer prospects, of course, having shed that distinction years ago, which perhaps makes the Prospects Report an inappropriate place to talk about them. But it sure is a convenient one, and since they're doing notable things worth commenting on, let's have at it.
First, the good news. Soroka nearly threw a no-hitter in his last start, having it spoiled with two outs in the seventh inning (the final inning of this particular contest). He stayed in to get the final out, turning in this sparkling stat line:
Just as impressive were his 18 swinging strikes, including 11 on the fastball. And those weren't in isolation. An improved swinging-strike rate has defined his return to Triple-A following a brief stint in the majors.
Swinging strikes are of course a good thing, but the increased rate does signal a change in identity for a pitcher looking to recapture his 2019 form. Back then, Soroka worked primarily off a sinker and thrived by generating ground-ball outs. Now, he's working off a four-seamer that, at least against Triple-A bats, seems to be generating whiffs. It may turn out he's all the better for it, but it's such a complete transformation that all preconceptions have to go out the window, making him a total wild card. It's also noteworthy that the Braves are passing him over for Wednesday's game. Many presumed he'd get the call after A.J. Smith-Shawver was sent down.
Next, the bad news. Alek Manoah finally took the mound in a minor-league game Tuesday, and it couldn't have possibly gone worse. Just look at these numbers:
Even worse is that he was pitching at the lowest level of minor-league ball, going against a bunch of teenagers who are used to seeing nothing but fastballs. The appearance followed three weeks of working on his mechanics at the Blue Jays' spring training complex. Clearly, he's not fixed yet, for all of the team's happy talk.
"Obviously saw the line score but heard the things we were talking about in terms of strike throwing, delivery, tempo, velo was all positive," manager John Schneider said. "The rest of the stuff you can kind of take it with a grain of salt."
OK, but the line was really bad, and suffice it to say Manoah isn't on the verge of rejoining the big-league rotation. It's possible he makes an adjustment that clicks everything back into place at some point, but I'm losing hope in him contributing in Fantasy again this year.
Now, for the actual prospects ...
Five on the verge
(These are the prospects most worth stashing in redraft leagues.)
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 3B, Reds
2022 minors: .304 BA (484 AB), 32 HR, 114 RBI, .955 OPS, 40 BB, 137 K
2023 minors: .329 BA (219 AB), 17 HR, 49 RBI, 1.043 OPS, 25 BB, 57 K
If the big-league club can't be moved to call you up when you're batting .360, how's it going to respond to you dipping below .330? A 2-for-21 stretch has put Encarnacion-Strand in this position, and I've got to tell you, I'm concerned. Or not at all because it's nonsense. By now, I'm convinced there's nothing Encarnacion-Strand can do performance-wise to help or hinder his chances. It's just a matter of the Reds committing to him, and at the moment, they appear to be fully stocked, unwilling to free up the DH spot for either him or Joey Votto. They did try Encarnacion-Strand as an outfielder earlier this month, but that experiment appears to have ended. A 40-man roster spot is available. Super 2 is no longer a factor. There are no more excuses other than opportunity. Here's hoping one develops soon.
Colton Cowser, OF, Orioles
2022 minors: .278 BA (510 AB), 19 HR, 18 SB, .874 OPS, 94 BB, 174 K
2023 minors: .323 BA (186 AB), 9 HR, 6 SB, .978 OPS, 43 BB, 56 K
While Jordan Westburg beat Cowser to the majors, the latter is probably the more talented of the two. He is in a 1-for-13 skid, but he was red hot after coming back from a quadriceps injury in early June. And of course, it's the season-long numbers that count for more anyway. The fifth overall pick in the draft two years ago, Cowser excels in every facet of the game, making good swing decisions and high-quality contact. With Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays and Anthony Santander all deserving a place in the Orioles lineup, Cowser's arrival is contingent on the team's willingness to devote its DH spot to the worst defender of the bunch, which is to say Santander. So far, they've preferred to keep it versatile, and Ryan O'Hearn may have first dibs on it anyway given the way he's performed in first baseman Ryan Mountcastle's absence.
Grayson Rodriguez, SP, Orioles
2023 majors: 2-2, 7.35 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 45 1/3 IP, 21 BB, 56 K
2023 minors: 3-0, 2.73 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 26 1/3 IP, 15 BB, 33 K
Rodriguez seemed like he was on the march straight back to the majors, turning in back-to-back double digit-strikeout efforts for Triple-A Norfolk, and then came a bit of a misfire in his latest turn June 21. It wasn't terrible or anything -- he allowed just one earned run and still had 15 swinging strikes -- but he threw 4 1/3 inefficient innings, walking three. One point of emphasis during his return to the minors has been attacking with his fastball. Another has been fixing the shape of his breaking balls, and he threw just four of those (all curveballs) in this one. There may still work to be done, in other words, though it still seems likely Rodriguez will be back sooner than later.
Jonathan Aranda, 2B, Rays
2022 minors: .318 BA (403 AB), 18 HR, .915 OPS, 45 BB, 100 K
2023 minors: .338 BA (225 AB), 12 HR, 1.019 OPS, 44 BB, 60 K
The Rays tend to keep things close to the vest, but it's nonetheless amazing how little speculation we've seen regarding Aranda given the type of run he's been on. His latest feat was homering in both games of a doubleheader Saturday, which you can observe here:
The home runs were his fourth and fifth for the month of June, during which he's batting .463 (38 for 82) to raise his season mark from .266 to .338. It's not possible to be any hotter than that, and it's hard to make the case that Aranda is in need of more development either. He's 25. He got a look in the majors last year. His exit velocity readings are impressive and his plate discipline indicators exceptional. He doesn't have a clear position defensively, but the Rays excel in finding at-bats for those types. Brandon Lowe (back) beginning a rehab assignment presents a roadblock at second base, but even so, Aranda's ascension seems inevitable.
Ronny Mauricio, SS, Mets
2022 minors: .259 BA (509 AB), 26 HR, 20 SB, .768 OPS, 24 BB, 125 K
2023 minors: .311 BA (296 AB), 11 HR, 12 SB, .874 OPS, 17 BB, 52 K
This fifth spot comes down to Mauricio and Sal Frelick, and since the latter is in a 3-for-19 funk at a time when he's still out to prove he's fully recovered from thumb surgery (while having a more recent scare with his knee), I'll give the nod to Mauricio this time. He hasn't been blazing hot either, but he continues to see time in left field. Tommy Pham has helped to stabilize that position at the big-league level this month, but the 35-year-old's track record is what it is. He may already be showing signs of slowing down. Mauricio's long limbs have always delivered good exit velocity readings, and he's done a much better job of putting bat to ball this year, giving him a chance to hit for both average and power.
Five on the periphery
(Here are some other prospects doing something of note.)
Coby Mayo, 3B, Orioles
2022 minors: .247 BA (388 AB), 19 HR, 20 2B, .782 OPS, 40 BB, 114 K
2023 minors: .313 BA (243 AB), 14 HR, 26 2B, 1.042 OPS, 44 BB, 72 K
Mayo has been regarded as a sleeping giant among prospect evaluators for a while now, and he seems to have found his footing in a return trip to Double-A. The 21-year-old has dramatically improved both his strikeout and walk rates, which accounts for him batting .313 and reaching base at a .432 clip, and he's been particularly hot here in June, batting .450 (18 for 40) with six home runs in his past 11 games. Standing 6-feet-5, Mayo's power was never in question, but now that he's looking like a more complete hitter, he's suddenly appearing on top-100 lists. The Orioles have thrived at hitter development in recent years, and Mayo may be yet another feather in their cap.
Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF, Twins
2022 minors: .272 BA (136 AB), 9 HR, 11 SB, 1.044 OPS, 57 BB, 52 K
2023 minors: .228 BA (171 AB), 10 HR, 9 SB, .833 OPS, 41 BB, 66 K
Though Rodriguez didn't play a game after June 8 last year because of torn meniscus, he entered 2023 with plenty of helium thanks to a .493 on-base percentage and reports of high-quality contact. He got off to a disastrous start at High-A, batting .178 as recently as (coincidentally enough) June 8, but in 14 games since then, he has hit .340 (18 for 53) with four homers and four steals, drawing 12 walks while striking out 13 times. The impressive skill set remains intact, and his season-long numbers present you with an opportunity to buy low.
Thomas Saggese, 2B, Rangers
2022 minors: .312 BA (401 AB), 15 HR, 12 SB, .868 OPS, 30 BB, 97 K
2023 minors: .312 BA (269 AB), 10 HR, 6 SB, .874 OPS, 26 BB, 67 K
As those who've invested in Justin Foscue are well aware, the Rangers are crowded up the middle with Corey Seager and Marcus Semien locked up forever and Ezequiel Duran emerging this year, but Saggese is yet another middle infield bat coming to fruition in the upper minors. He got off to a slow start at Double-A Frisco but is batting .342 (65 for 190) with 10 homers and a .960 OPS since the start of May and .456 (26 for 57) with five homers and a 1.340 OPS during his current 14-game hitting streak. He's seen time at third base as well as second base and shortstop and may profile best as an offensive-minded utility man. He excels at elevating the ball to his pull side, maximizing his modest raw power, and may have a little Spencer Steer in him.
Shay Whitcomb, SS, Astros
2022 minors: .219 BA (461 AB), 19 HR, 20 SB, .682 OPS, 36 BB, 165 K
2023 minors: .283 BA (247 AB), 20 HR, 10 SB, .924 OPS, 21 BB, 81 K
A 23-homer, 30-steal season in A-ball two years ago earned Whitcomb some looks, but the rankings never showed him much love and he wound up hitting .219 at Double-A last year. He did significantly better in a follow-up stint to begin this year and has only seen his numbers improve with a move up to Triple-A, where he's batting .310 (22 for 71) with eight home runs in just 18 games. The 24-year-old is still flawed in many respects, striking out too much and walking too little, but according to Baseball America, he has made real strides defensively, which gives him a better chance of getting a big-league look if he continues to perform.
Tyler Stuart, SP, Mets
2022 minors: 3 2/3 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 7 K
2023 minors: 2-0, 1.44 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 62 2/3 IP, 20 BB, 78 K
Drafting him in the sixth round last year, the Mets may have gotten a steal in Stuart, who was miscast as a reliever in college despite a massive 6-foot-9, 250-pound frame and what's become a genuine three-pitch arsenal, highlighted by a sinking fastball and sweeping slider. The 23-year-old is clearly too much for hitters in the South Atlantic League, which he leads with a 1.47 ERA following his 11 strikeouts over 7 2/3 innings last time out. It was his second start of seven-plus innings this year, which is unusual for the lower minors, and should earn him a bump up to Double-A soon.