Fantasy Baseball Prospects Report: Noelvi Marte back, whether he's ready or not; Brooks Lee making his case

It was always a stretch to include Noelvi Marte in the Prospects Report. He's a prospect only by technicality, having yet to accumulate 131 at-bats in the majors, and the only reason he was in the minors was so he could hit the ground running when his 80-game PED suspension ended Thursday.

The Reds confirmed as much by having him join the team for its flight to St. Louis even though he had yet to find his stroke at Triple-A Louisville, going 8 for 53 (.151) in 12 games total and 1 for 22 (.046) in his final five games. It's like nothing could have led to him being optioned rather than activated.

"He's doing great. The reports are all positive. Physically, he looks good," manager David Bell said last week, adding that the team is less concerned with Marte's performance than his process. "We get process grades on every at-bat he has. I'm reading those. Everything has been right on track."

Noelvi Marte 3B CIN Cincinnati • #16 • Age: 23 2023 Stats AVG .316 HR 3 SB 6 OPS .822 AB 114 K 25

There was every expectation that Marte would make the major-league club prior to his suspension early in spring training. Since then, the Reds have lost Matt McLain to shoulder surgery and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to wrist surgery, throttling their once enviable infield depth. Their sentiment seems to be that even if Marte has to muddle through the first couple weeks, still working to get his timing down, it's better than seeing more of Santiago Espinal at third base.

Of course, our standards in Fantasy Baseball are a little higher than that, and in a year when so many hitters, particularly young ones, have struggled to keep their head above water, turning to one who has yet to come up for air even is wishful thinking at best. Still, the upside for Marte is alluring enough. During his six-week trial in the majors last year, he hit the ball 91.3 mph on average and as hard as 115.6 mph, putting his max exit velocity in the top 4 percent. He kept his strikeout rate at only 20 percent and was aggressive on the base paths, swiping six bags during that time.

As stashes go, I'd still place him second among "prospects," behind only James Wood. But understand that even with his activation, he's more of a stash than a start until we see his bat come to life.

FIVE ON THE VERGE

(These are the prospects most worth stashing in redraft leagues.)

James Wood, OF, Nationals

2023 minors: .262 BA (473 AB), 26 HR, 18 SB, .873 OPS, 65 BB, 173 K
2024 minors: .352 BA (182 AB), 10 HR, 10 SB, 1.052 OPS, 39 BB, 41 K

All seems right for Wood after his three weeks lost to a hamstring strain. In five games back, he has hit .313 (5 for 16) with a home run and four walks compared to four strikeouts, so if the Nationals were simply waiting to make sure his timing was down before calling him up, that's more or less confirmed. So ... when? Any day now, I would say. Eddie Rosario's performance has cratered in recent weeks, which makes for an easy opening, and whatever Super Two considerations might have been in play are basically moot now

If it hasn't happened by the All-Star break, then the Nationals might be better served holding out until late August, thus leaving his rookie eligibility intact for 2025 (which could open the door to bonus draft picks if things break right). I'm still betting it happens before then, though.

Shane Baz, SP, Rays

Career majors: 4.02 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 40 1/3 IP, 12 BB, 48 K
2024 minors: 4.12 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 39 1/3 IP, 23 BB, 44 K

As I noted a week ago, Baz seems to be nearly all the way back to form after having some command issues in his first few starts back from Tommy John surgery. But I'd be remiss not to point out that in two starts since then, he's allowed 15 baserunners in just eight innings. It's less of a step back than an indication that he's not all the way there yet, and I'll note that his latest outing Wednesday saw him mix in his curveball, upping its usage to 15 percent. He could probably get by with just the fastball and slider right now, but the Rays probably want to see him reestablish that third pitch before bringing him back given that it was such a big part of his success previously. Meanwhile, Aaron Civale may have bought himself a little more time with a 3.94 ERA in his past six starts.

Christian Scott, SP, Mets

2023 minors: 2.57 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 87 2/3 IP, 12 BB, 107 K
2024 minors: 2.76 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 42 1/3 IP, 12 BB, 55 K
2024 majors: 3.90 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 27 2/3 IP, 6 BB, 25 K

Friday marks the start of a 17-day stretch without a day off for the Mets, which likely signals a return to a six-man rotation and, with it, Scott.

You'll notice in the clip above that one reporter raises the possibility of the Mets going with Jose Butto instead, which manager Carlos Mendoza doesn't shoot down, but the last time both were in the rotation, Scott got the chance to stay longer and continued to pitch well. Since returning to Triple-A, the 25-year-old has put together a 2.12 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 10.1 K/9 across four starts while continuing to throw strikes at an elite rate (69 percent). The starts have been on the shorter side, presumably in the name of workload management, which is a pretty good sign that the Mets have him in their rotation plans for later in the year. While his first major-league stint wasn't as dominant as it could have been, he pitched well enough to be scooped up in all Fantasy leagues whenever he's recalled. Better to beat the rush now.

Max Meyer, SP, Marlins

2024 minors: 6.00 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 39 IP, 18 BB, 46 K
2024 majors: 2.12 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 17 IP, 3 BB, 14 K

Three weeks after manager Skip Schumaker said Meyer would be back "soon," the Marlins rotation is in dire straits, having recently lost Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and Ryan Weathers to injury. But rather than turning to Scott, the Marlins have filled out their rotation with no-names like Kyle Tyler, Roddery Munoz, Yonny Chirinos and Valente Bellozo. Perhaps "soon" doesn't mean what we think it means. 

You might say Meyer's 6.00 ERA at Triple-A Jacksonville has something to do with the snub -- and I can't say for sure that it doesn't -- but I'll note that it's partly due to the Marlins having him work on pitches other than his slider, which he threw nearly 50 percent of the time in his major-league stint earlier this year. Though he's still not setting the world on fire, his performance has steadied a bit in recent weeks, and he's beginning to build up the pitch count as well, with his 76 Wednesday representing a new high for his time in the minors. We're pinning an awful lot to those three major-league stats he made in April, but I'm guessing he'll finally get his follow-up within the next week or two.

Coby Mayo, 3B, Orioles

2023 minors: .290 BA (504 AB), 29 HR, 45 2B, .973 OPS, 93 BB, 148 K
2024 minors: .315 BA (213 AB), 19 HR, 16 2B, 1.061 OPS, 22 BB, 61 K

Mayo has only improved his already impressive stat line at Triple-A Norfolk since coming back from a fractured rib two weeks ago. Even leaving out his rehab assignment at High-A, where he thoroughly dominated, he has hit .393 (11 for 28) with three homers and just three strikeouts in seven games. The timing couldn't be better, too, with the Orioles looking to overtake the Yankees in the AL East and clearly having some dissatisfaction with their infield.

For a while, Jorge Mateo was holding his own, but he's slipped enough that the Orioles have begun mixing in more of Ramon Urias ... who's batting .228 with a .649 OPS. Jackson Holliday, who of course beat Mayo to the majors, is back from an elbow injury but will be limited to DH for the next few weeks, which takes him out of the running. That leaves Mayo as the Orioles' best bet for an upgrade on the infield, with Jordan Westburg shifting over to second base full time, and he could be a massive run producer in that lineup.

FIVE ON THE PERIPHERY

(Here are some other prospects doing something of note.)

Brooks Lee, SS, Twins

2023 minors: .275 BA (501 AB), 16 HR, 39 2B, .808 OPS, 56 BB, 91 K
2024 minors: .358 BA (106 AB), 6 HR, 7 2B, 1.018 OPS, 12 BB, 15 K

My Five on the Periphery is intended to be its own unique category and not simply overflow for my Five on the Verge, but sometimes there's a sixth prospect worth highlighting for stashing purposes. The fact is that there's even more smoke for a Brooks Lee promotion than a Coby Mayo promotion right now. The 23-year-old, who was drafted eighth overall just two years ago, has been a complete animal over the past two weeks, batting .370 (20 for 54) with six homers. He also made his first appearance at second base a few days ago, which is notable since it's the position he'd most likely play in the majors, with Willi Castro shifting back to left field.

The reasons I'm giving Mayo the slight edge are, one, that the Twins don't really need Lee right now (not unless they're giving up on Trevor Larnach, whose underlying numbers suggest they shouldn't) and, two, that I don't think he'd be as impactful as Mayo. Though Lee has generated power during his time at Triple-A, it's his hit tool that stands out more, between the low strikeout rate and high line-drive rate, and the way hit tools translate to the majors is harder to gauge. In fact, I have serious doubts about his power credentials given that his average exit velocity at Triple-A is only 86.9 mph and his max is only 104.9. Those readings are comparable to Jeff McNeil and would rank near the bottom of the majors.

Shay Whitcomb, SS, Astros

2023 minors: .240 BA (538 AB), 35 HR, 20 SB, .771 OPS, 42 BB, 178 K
2024 minors: .315 BA (267 AB), 17 HR, 14 SB, .972 OPS, 35 BB, 67 K

Last week, I wrote about Brice Matthews. This week, Shay Whitcomb. Seeing as they play the same position in the same organization with names of a similar length and assortment of consonants, you'd be forgiven for thinking they're the same person. But while Matthews is a recent first-round pick who's quickly made his way to Double-A, Whitcomb is a lower-pedigree player still biding his time at Triple-A at age 25. What Whitcomb has done there this year, though, might be enough to elevate him to full-fledged prospect. While the power and speed have always been there, the plate discipline is markedly improved, leading to fewer wasted at-bats and a sparkling .315/.395/.577 slash line. Surely, the big club will take notice soon.

Charles McAdoo, 3B, Pirates

2023 minors: .302 BA (96 AB), 5 HR, 5 SB, .922 OPS, 17 BB, 22 K
2024 minors: .338 BA (240 AB), 11 HR, 15 SB, .996 OPS, 30 BB, 58 K

Little was expected of McAdoo when the Pirates took him in the 13th round of last year's draft, but he's been turning heads as a hitter, combining a disciplined approach with an optimal launch angle for average and power. Already, his move up to Double-A doesn't look to be any more of a challenge. He's so far gone 6 for 17 (.353) with two doubles, two homers and more walks (three) than strikeouts (two). The bat may be outpacing the glove, which has yet to settle in at any of third base, second base or right field, but it's more a matter of finding the right fit than not being able to find one.

Josue De Paula, OF, Dodgers

2023 minors: .284 BA (282 AB), 2 HR, 14 SB, .768 OPS, 46 BB, 61 K
2024 minors: .271 BA (214 AB), 6 HR, 14 SB, .819 OPS, 36 BB, 58 K

De Paula remains a projection-over-production sort of prospect, but we're beginning to see signs of life from the 19-year-old. He ended his time at Low-A Rancho Cucamonga by batting .324 (36 for 111) with six homers, 10 steals, a .982 OPS and nearly as many walks (24) as strikeouts (27) over a 31-game span. He's still filling out his 6-foot-3 frame and likely has more power in store as he gets older, but the groundwork he's laying now points to a high ceiling that you can trust the Dodgers to maximize.

Ian Seymour, SP, Rays

2023 minors: 1.50 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 42 IP, 16 BB, 46 K
2024 minors: 1.97 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 77 2/3 IP, 17 BB, 86 K

Seymour is the strange sort of pitching prospect that only the Rays could come up with, delivering diabolical ratios at Double-A despite a fastball that barely scrapes 90. He first started gaining attention in 2021 for doing much the same thing, but his profile seemed so gimmicky that his subsequent Tommy John surgery was thought to be a death knell.

Instead, he's come back just as dominant, only with superb control now as well. He's under-leveled at age 25 and may not prove as deceptive at higher levels, but the profile (apart from the left-handedness) is reminiscent of a young Joe Ryan, another strange sort of pitching prospect developed by the Rays.