Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers: Austin Riley's surprising stolen-base buzz boosts his outlook
Spring rankings shift as Austin Riley rises while several pitchers slide down draft boards
We usually don't care much about managing or coaching changes. At best, they tend to have pretty marginal impacts on how a team plays, and it's usually pretty hard to know what those impacts will be and how they will play out. But the Braves' addition of Antoan Richardson probably should have showed up on more Fantasy radars this offseason.
If you don't know the name, Richardson was the first base coach for the Mets and the primary point of credit when it came to Juan Soto's sudden, unexpected emergence as a base stealer. And the hope here is he's going to help the Braves be a more aggressive, successful team on the bases.
That could be big news for Ronald Acuna, of course, though he was already such a prolific base stealer in the past that I would expect him to take a step forward no matter what. And Michael Harris and Ozzie Albies are enthusiastic enough about taking the extra base that getting a few more wouldn't be asking too much.
But Austin Riley? A base stealer? Well, now that would seem to be a Juan Soto-esque miracle if Richardson can coax it out of him. After all, he has just seven in 821 career games. For all intents and purposes, Riley is a total non-zero for steals, putting all of the pressure for his Fantasy profile on his bat. But that could change in 2026, especially if you ask Harris' opinion.
"He's going to get 20," Harris told MLB.com.
Riley isn't as bullish, at least publicly. But new manager Walt Weiss is on the record wanting to be aggressive on the bases to become less reliant on the homer than the Braves have grown, and Riley is actually better situated to take advantage of that than you might think. Because, unlike Soto, Riley is actually a pretty good athlete, ranking in the 72nd percentile in sprint speed; Soto was in the 13th percentile en route to his 38 steals.
That doesn't automatically mean Riley will be a better base stealer than Soto. But it does suggest that it'll become a part of his game for the first time. And for a guy who struggled through a couple of disappointing seasons in a row with the bat, that would be a welcome sight – either to make Riley a potential five-category stud or to give him a little extra margin for error in case the bat doesn't bounce back all the way.
It's too early to say for sure. Riley does have one steal this spring in 11 games, and that might not be nothing – he had never stolen a base during Spring Training in Spring Training seasons before this one. And how would he? It's never been part of his game; why waste energy on it when the games don't even matter?
Unless it's about to become a part of his game. I think it might, and I'm willing to slide him up in the rankings based on that hope. It's just speculation until the games matter, but it's an interesting enough theory to tamp down on some of my skepticism toward Riley. We're not talking about a multi-round jump up the rankings, of course. Not yet, anyway. We might get there by the end of the season.
In the rest of today's newsletter, we're taking a look at a bunch of other players I've moved up in the rankings this spring, a few I've moved down, and a few I haven't quite figured out what to do with yet. And we're running out of time …
Rankings risers and fallers
Spring rankings risers
Yordan Alvarez, DH, Astros
He's playing in the field. He's healthy, and he's playing in the field. Who knows how long either will last, but if you haven't upgraded Alvarez at least a little bit for those two facts, you're falling behind. Sure, he may not stay healthy – in fact, he may be less likely to stay healthy because he's playing in the field – but when other players are actually hurt right now, I'm less inclined to hold the future maybe's against Alvarez. We would like to see him gain eligibility, and if he does that, those third-round picks for Alvarez are going to look a lot better.
(I thought they looked pretty good all along, so this one is more about everyone else meeting me closer to where I already was.)
Matt McLain, 2B, Reds
I want to be careful with this one. As I said, we're looking for tangible changes beyond the surface level numbers in spring, and I'm not actually sure we're seeing that with McLain. He's been phenomenal – .543/.600/1.057 with five homers in 12 games – but I'm not sure "he tweaked his batting stance" and "he's using a quarter-inch longer bat" are enough to back up a huge change in McLain's outlook.
But I'm open to it! I thought McLain was being a bit overlooked earlier in spring, when his ADP was outside of the top 200. The problem is, we might be overdoing it – in 55 drafts over the past five days at the NFBC platform, McLain is up to 150th in ADP. Moving a guy up 50 or more spots in the rankings should require more than just a good 12 games against a bunch of borderline major-leaguers, so I'm not sure I actually want to pay this price. But I can't deny he should be moving up in the rankings, at least.
Jac Caglianone, OF, Royals
With Caglianone, we're also potentially looking at a spring overreaction, though in his case, I don't really care that he hit .400/.550/.733 in six games before joining Team Italy's Cinderella run through the WBC – and I don't really care that he is 4 for 11 with a homer in four World Baseball Classic games. Okay, maybe I care a little bit about the fact that he has nine walks to just six strikeouts in those 10 games, though plate discipline wasn't necessarily my concern with Calgianone, either.
No, what I care about here is the under-the-hood stuff. Caglianone struggled mightily as a rookie, but the case for him was always going to revolve around his mighty raw power starting to show up in games. And, well, early in spring, he became just the eighth player in Statcast history to hit a ball 120 miles per hour or harder. With 12 batted balls in spring, he had a 98.8 mph average, which is pretty awesome, too. It doesn't mean it'll show up once the games count, but it's nice to see it there from a guy who was a comparable prospect to Nick Kurtz this time last year.
Like with McLain, there isn't an obvious change to point to with McLain this spring. He hasn't featured an expanded arsenal or increased fastball velocity this spring. Maybe we're seeing a few more changeups and sliders than we did last season, but nothing drastic has really changed here. He's always had good stuff, and he's just executing at an incredibly high level over an incredibly small sample size.
So skepticism about his rise up the rankings is reasonable, too. But in this case, we're talking about a pitcher who went from an afterthought competing for a rotation spot to someone whose job seems all but assured at this point. We're just assuming here, but with 17 strikeouts to one walk and two earned runs allowed in 13.1 innings, it seems like a safe assumption to make. Especially since Abel's ADP remains outside of the top 300 over the past five days. I'll be thrilled to get him with a reserve round pick, but I'm also not opposed to just drafting Abel with one of your final two or three starting spots if you really like what you see this spring.
Jordan Lawlar, 3B, Diamondbacks
It seems at this point, the Diamondbacks are waiting for Lawlar to force them to believe in him. The former top prospect has been around for a while, but between injuries and a real inability to hit breaking balls, it seems like the Diamondbacks are just waiting for him to give them a reason to give him a chance. Fair or not, they've got him out here this spring learning a near position on the fly while fighting for a roster spot … and he might just be doing enough to win it.
Lawlar is garnering positive reviews for his work in center field, a position he hasn't played since he was a kid, and he's also more than holding his own as a hitter, with a .278/.381/.639 line through 42 plate appearances. That includes a manageable 26% strikeout rate with six walks and four homers, which should be enough to get him on the Opening Day roster. What he does then is up to him, but I still think it's worth betting on the 23-year-old with a near-1.000 OPS at Triple-A and 18 homers and 24 steals in 91 games. If you're looking for some cheap upside and positional flexibility, Lawlar should have third base and outfield after about a week.
I'm not much of a believer in Meyer at this point, but smarter people than me still have some reason to be excited. I don't trust his fastball combo, but his slider and sweeper are potentially elite pitches, and his changeup flashes occasionally, too. Meyer has had a lot of trouble staying healthy over the years, but we've seen flashes at the MLB level too – remember when he had a 3.18 ERA with 47 strikeouts to 11 walks in his first 34 innings last season? Meyer was basically off my radar coming into this spring, but he's looked interesting enough to climb back onto the mixed-league bench range of drafts. That's not nothing.
Edgar Quero, C, White Sox
This isn't really because of anything Quero has done, though he's having a fine spring himself, hitting .351/.385/.486 so far. No, he's moving up because Kyle Teel is likely to miss the first month of the season after suffering a hamstring injury playing for Italy in the World Baseball Classic. Quero was already in line for plenty of playing time between catcher and the DH spot, but now he's really going to get some early run. He didn't do a ton with his first taste of the minors in 2025, mostly because he barely hit for power – if he can get back to being even the 15-homer guy he was in the minors in 2024, he could be a viable No. 2 catcher. In leagues with an IL spot, I like targeting Teel and Quero with two of my last picks and hoping I get one great catcher season out of them.
Didier Fuentes/ JR Ritchie, SP, Braves
Even if Spencer Schwellenbach, Hurston Waldrep, and Joey Wentz all didn't have surgery this spring, Ritchie and Fuentes would be pitching their ways onto our radars. Fuentes got rushed up for his MLB debut and looked overwhelmed in four starts, but he's been outstanding in a couple of brief outings this spring, showing top-shelf stuff en route to nine strikeouts in five innings of work, and Ritchie hasn't been so bad himself, striking out 14 to five walks in 12 innings of work. Even with the injuries, the Braves probably won't have room for either of them to start the season, but it's a rotation literally full of question marks, either of the performance variety (Bryce Elder) or the health variety (everyone else). Ritchie and Fuentes are going to get their chances, and it'll probably be sooner rather than later. You probably don't need to draft either of them outside of some deep NL-only formats, but you should know both of these Braves' pitching prospects' names.
It's been a weird spring for Mayo, but the arrow is definitely pointing up. Mostly because Jordan Westburg is likely to miss at least the first month of the season with a partially torn UCL. But it's also because Mayo is having a pretty good spring in his own right, hitting .500 with just one strikeout in 28 trips to the plate, a promising sign for a guy who has struggled to make enough contact in the majors. He isn't hitting for a ton of power, but his average exit velocity is up to 90.3 mph, a 3-mph improvement over last season. None of that means he's going to survive, let alone thrive, against major-league pitching for the first time. But given his pedigree and the opportunity laid out in front of him, it's the best chance he's ever had to matter for Fantasy. Make sure he's on your late-round radar.
Spring rankings fallers
Chase Burns, SP, Reds
I don't know if it's a motivational tactic or what, but the Reds have made a point of emphasizing that Burns still has to compete for his rotation spot. It has never seemed all that likely he wouldn't be in the rotation, and that seems even less likely with Hunter Greene having elbow surgery, but it does seem notable that Burns' own team is holding him at arm's length a bit more than the Fantasy community. I also don't think his short outing in his most recent start (he threw just two innings as planned) is anything too serious to worry about, but it's enough to make me a bit wary of going all in on Burns as a No. 2 SP for Fantasy. The ceiling is sky high, but between the limited track record of success and the flexor strain that landed him on the IL last season, it just feels like there are more ways things can go wrong for Burns than some might think. And "some" included me just a few weeks ago. I'm definitely not out on him, but he's slid a little.
Blake Snell, SP, Dodgers
Of course, Snell is sliding. He likely won't pitch in the majors until late April or May after being held back in Spring Training after feeling some discomfort in his shoulder early on. But we might be going too far. In my Tout Wars draft, I got Snell for $1 – in a H2H points league with unlimited IL spots! I've never been as high on Snell as many Fantasy analysts, but they're literally giving him away at this point, and in any league with IL spots, you should be happy to take the flier on him if and when he slips to the 200 range in your draft.
On that note: In leagues with IL spots to play with, I quite like drafting guys who will open the year on the IL, especially if they aren't currently hurt, as is the case with Snell. Worst case scenario, I spent $1 that won't help me this season. But I'll get a free look at the first waiver-wire run of the season, and I might just have a super impactful SP2 for the final four months or so of the season.
Zack Wheeler, SP, Phillies
Nothing has changed with Wheeler, but that's kind of the point. Coming back from an injury (Thoracic Outlet surgery) that doesn't have a long track record of success, I at least wanted to see Wheeler get on a mound this spring before I was willing to invest much of anything in him. I get the allure: This was a guy who was mentioned in the same breath as Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, and Garrett Crochet when healthy last season, and if there's any path to that kind of upside again, it's hard to argue with a pick outside of the top 100.
But without seeing him on a mound, it's basically impossible to know if that upside actually exists. He has faced batters once in a live batting practice session, but obviously, we don't have Statcast data for that to see what his stuff looks like. Am I passing up on significant upside by not taking Wheeler at his 120-ish ADP? Possibly! But he might never be the same guy again. In fact, that seems like the more likely outcome, at least until we have evidence to the contrary.
Sean Manaea, SP, Mets
Manaea has never cost much in drafts, but I was at least interested in him as a possible late-round sleeper coming into the spring. But Manaea has been tinkering with his arm slot and has seen his velocity collapse in recent starts, topping out at 90.4 mph in his most recent outing Thursday – he averaged 92.2 during his successful 2024 campaign. The Mets and Manaea insist he is healthy, but this was a guy who needed to give us some reason to be optimistic after he flopped last season (while pitching through loose bodies in his elbow that were never cleaned up), and he certainly hasn't done that yet. There are more interesting pitchers out there these days.
Carlos Estevez, RP, Royals
At least during Spring Training, it's reasonable to take velocity readings with a grain of salt, especially from a veteran like Estevez with nothing to prove. But Estevez has pitched in some games that matter, and guess what: His velocity is still completely absent. Pitching for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic, Estevez averaged just 90.7 mph on his four-seamer, right in line with where he was with the Royals this spring but down 5.2 mph from where he was in 2025. Estevez isn't going to lose his job because his velocity is down this spring, but he had a pretty mediocre 3.69 xERA last season to go with his 2.45 ERA, so the margin for error here was already pretty low. If he's throwing in the low-90s on top of that? Well, let's just say, you need to know the names Lucas Erceg and Matt Strahm already.
Spring rankings … somewhere-in-between-ers
Konnor Griffin, SS, Pirates
You don't know if Griffin is going to make the Pirates. Neither do I, of course, but I've made a point of expressing how uncertain I think this situation is all along. He hasn't been so bad this spring that you think he definitely won't make the team, but he also hasn't been so good that he's forcing the Pirates' hand yet – his .200/.273/.533 line comes with a paltry .158 BABIP, but also eight strikeouts to zero walks. The power has been there, and the fact that Griffin has tapped into it without an exorbitant strikeout rate would seem to be a pretty good sign if you're looking for a reason to be optimistic.
But the truth is, none of us knows what the Pirates are looking for from Griffin right now. He's barely played above A-ball, but he's also the kind of precocious young talent who might just be major-league ready as a 19-year-old. If it were my decision, we'd be throwing caution to the wind and naming him the Opening Day shortstop already. But I don't know what the Pirates are looking for exactly, so I don't know how likely that actually is.
He remains in a holding pattern for Fantasy, as a result, though I still think he's probably worth drafting around 150 if he falls there. It probably won't be more than a month or so before we see him either way. Coming off a 20-homer, 65-steal season, he should be well worth the wait.
Shane McClanahan, SP, Rays
I made the following joke Sunday afternoon: "We switched Shane McClanahan out for Matthew Boyd. Let's see if anyone notices."
This is unfair in both directions. For McClanahan, it's unfair because he's still averaging 95-ish mph with his four-seamer, nearly 2 mph north of where Boyd was last season. That's still an additional 2 mph south of where McClanahan was in 2023, but it's still pretty impressive for a left-handed starter.
But it's also unfair to Boyd, who is a legitimately good MLB pitcher. It shouldn't be an insult to compare McClanahan to him – Boyd was an All-Star last season and finished with a 3.21 ERA! If McClanahan truly is just Matthew Boyd right now, we'd take that!
You're hoping for better than that, of course. And that's not unreasonable. McClanahan's higher velocity does probably give him a higher ceiling than Boyd's, and the secondary pitches still look excellent – especially the changeup, which generated a bunch of really ugly whiffs in Sunday's start. But the fastball doesn't have the same kind of late bite it used to, and coming in 2 mph lower than it did is only going to make it even more hittable. It's probably not a bad fastball, but the best version of McClanahan dominated with one of the best fastballs in baseball, and he probably doesn't have that anymore. He could still be good, but he probably can't be dominant anymore.
Others are moving him up in their rankings this spring, but I'm keeping McClanahan outside of the top 200. Hey, that's not far from where Boyd is, too!
Ivan Herrera, DH, Cardinals
By this point, I had hoped we would be well on our way to Herrera emerging as a regular catching option for the Cardinals. But after a delayed start to spring, Herrera has been dealing with knee soreness, which has put a halt to his behind-the-plate plans. He should still be ready for Opening Day, but it might just be as a DH. Herrera is good enough to thrive as an everyday DH, and he would probably still matter for Fantasy even if he wasn't eligible at any other position. But it's also unquestionably true that he would be a lot more interesting if he weren't DH/Util-only. For the time being, however, it looks like he will be, which has put a pause on his rise up the draft boards.
