Fantasy Baseball Weekend Stockwatch: Jeffrey Springs finds his changeup; Spencer Arrighetti dominates again

This start on its own would be enough to earn an up-and-comer like Spencer Arrighetti a spot on this list, but what elevates it to dumbfounding territory is that his it's second straight with double-digit strikeouts. Clearly, missing bats is a legitimate part of his skill set and one that has seemingly gone into overdrive in his past six starts, during which he has put together a 3.25 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 12.3 K/9. He explains his success this way: "Just mixing really well. If you look at it, my four-seam gets hit. That's one of the reasons I've tried to change the pitch mix a little bit in terms of usage percentages." And that's true to some degree. Three of his five pitches are particularly good at getting whiffs. But he actually upped his fastball usage to 47 percent in this one, and it was responsible for nine of his 21 whiffs. It's like he's just toying with hitters now, and we should all be salivating at the thought of his next start against ... the White Sox.

The last time Gerrit Cole got as many as 10 strikeouts in a start was nearly a year ago. The last time he got as many as 26 swinging strikes was nearly four years ago. It would be easy, then, for me to classify Saturday's start as the long-awaited return to form, and perhaps it was. Most encouraging was that his slider, long his best pitch, actually looked like a weapon for the first time since returning from this year's elbow issue, generating seven whiffs on 16 throws. My one hesitation is that his start just before the All-Star break and his start just after were both good enough for me to declare him "back" in this very space only to have to recant immediately thereafter. Of course, he leaned more on his newfound cutter in those starts rather than the slider.

If Jeffrey Springs' first two starts made us wonder why we devoted an IL spot to him during his long recovery from Tommy John surgery, his third start was a welcome reminder. The left-hander flat-out dominated a dangerous Orioles lineup, and that's with his fastball still trailing last year's by an average of 1.4 mph. But doesn't he need that velocity? Maybe not if his changeup plays like it did Sunday, generating 10 whiffs on 15 swings. It was always the best pitch in a fairly limited arsenal, and according to MLB.com, opponents had gone 7 for 14 against it in Springs' first two starts. "It's improving. I feel like each bullpen, each day, getting back to moving how I need to move down the mound, the stuff's starting to catch up," Springs said. My suspicion is that Springs regains more of his lost velocity down the stretch and is a big contributor for Fantasy now that his best pitch is back.

Jorge Soler hit 48 home runs for the Royals in 2019. He didn't do much for them in 2020 and was terrible to begin 2021, but then he went to the Braves and hit .269 with 14 homers and an .882 in 55 games to close out that season. He then signed a two-year deal with the Marlins and did nothing the first year only to turn around and hit 36 home runs the second year -- i.e., 2023. So while his time with the Giants to begin 2024 was underwhelming, we've seen him turn on a dime a couple times already in his career. Could a return to the Braves trigger it again? Well, he already has four home runs through 10 games. Granted, all four came at Coors Field this weekend, but they had an average exit velocity of 104.1 mph. You should make sure he's rostered just in case he's about to take off.

Considered a mid-round value by some coming into the year (I'm sheepishly raising my hand), Jake Burger was essentially useless for his first 71 games, batting .215 with nine homers and a .605 OPS. In 25 games since then, he's been indispensable, batting .354 (34 for 96) with 13 home runs, including one in each of his three games this weekend. He's been so hot that his season batting average (.251) is actually a point higher than last year, which is the performance that got so many of us excited to begin with. He still has poor plate discipline and an even worse supporting cast, so I wouldn't say my enthusiasm is entirely restored. Clearly, though, he's too hot to be anywhere other than your starting lineup right now.

Zach Dezenzo has started all five games since coming up to the majors, seemingly taking over at first base for Jonathan Singleton (who has gotten more run there than he deserves, frankly), and so far, he's looked good. His 5-for-21 performance amounts to only a .238 batting average, but he has struck out at an 18 percent rate and hit a 437-foot home run completely out of Fenway Park Saturday. There are no red flags in his minor-league data, really, with the exit velocities, launch angle, and plate discipline all rating as solid. Baseball Prospectus actually had Dezenzo as the No. 40 prospect coming into the year, though he fell off because of an early wrist injury. Clearly, he's healthy now and could have a significant impact for Fantasy as a regular in a deep lineup.

For all the attention Deyvison De Los Santos was getting before being traded to the Marlins, it was actually Adrian Del Castillo putting up the better numbers at Triple-A Reno -- and without the obvious plate discipline concerns. Granted, Reno a hitter's paradise, but his 90.7 mph average exit velocity and 111.0 mph max exit velocity both suggested he wasn't just a product of his environment. And now, three games into his big-league career, Del Castillo is already 7 for 13 with two doubles and a walk-off home run hit 105.9 mph and 416 feet off Jeff Hoffman. Defensive concerns may render Del Castillo less than an everyday player even with Gabriel Moreno sidelined by a groin injury, but the upside is sufficient for two-catcher leagues.

I've been holding out hope that Garrett Crochet will give us a few more starts of conventional length seeing as both he and the White Sox have talked about stretching him out again. But going the five innings required for a win (however unlikely the White Sox are to give him one) depends on him pitching well, and for three starts in a row now, he hasn't been able to do that. Friday's start represented a new low and elevated his season ERA to 3.65, which for me raises the question of what exactly the White Sox are looking to accomplish here. Crochet will be a free agent before they're competitive again. His value to them is as a trade asset, which means their top goal for the remainder of this season is to preserve his trade value. Frankly, they should shut him down. Because they haven't yet, I'm reluctant to drop him in deeper leagues, but in 12-teamers, his chances of helping are fleeting.

Cristopher Sanchez's latest start was his worst yet, but it was also the third time in seven starts that he allowed six earned runs or more, giving him a 6.63 ERA during that stretch. Maybe if that was the only issue -- just a few too many runs scored for a month and a half -- I'd be willing to overlook it, but his strikeouts have dried up during that time as well. He has 5.9 K/9 in those seven starts, with three of the "good" ones yielding just two strikeouts each. Factor in the on-again, off-again control problems, and it just feels like there's too much that could go wrong for Sanchez in any given start. I like the ground-ball rate and the supporting cast, but he's someone I'd absolutely be wiling to drop for Arrighetti.

Speaking of pitchers I'd be willing to drop for Arrighetti, Hayden Birdsong is an even easier choice. It took two starts for my interest to materialize (two earned runs, 20 strikeouts), and it's taken two starts for it to dissipate (12 earned runs, six strikeouts). The good starts came against the Rockies, I should probably point out, but the matchups for his two bad starts (Nationals and Tigers) weren't an order of magnitude better. Control has been an issue all along, but in his latest start Sunday, he got a combined two whiffs on his curveball, changeup, and slider. If he's going to succeed, it'll be on the strength of his secondary arsenal, which still seems like too much of a work in progress for standard 12-team-league use.