If you had a starting pitcher put up a dud in your lineup Wednesday, I've got some good news for you: You weren't alone!
Okay, I recognize that isn't actually good news – especially if you were going against Eduardo Rodriguez, more about whom later – but at least you weren't alone. Among the 30 pitchers who started Wednesday, eight gave up at least four runs, and four were started in at least 48% of CBS Fantasy leagues; two more were started at least 37% of the time, and another was still active in 28%. There were a lot of crooked numbers put up on Fantasy scoreboards last night.
With so many key names struggling, it was tough to whittle down the list to just three names for what I typically call my "Three Down" segment in the FBT Newsletter, so today we're going to have to do things a bit differently. Instead of that segment, we're borrowing the Drop-O-Meter from the FBT Podcast and looking at seven pitchers who struggled to determine how tightly you need to hold onto them heading into the key final month of the season.
All seven are rostered in at least 59% of CBS Fantasy leagues, and at this point in the season, you can't afford to have anyone dragging you down, so let's look at who really needs to stick around right now:
Drop these struggling starters?
Bryan Woo, Mariners (97%) – The first one comes with an "If he's healthy" asterisk. Woo missed his previous start with shoulder soreness, and while his velocity was actually up in this one, seeing six runs on his line coming off an injury is awfully worrisome. After the game, Woo said he "felt great," and I'm not dropping him if he's healthy, despite his disappointing season, though I will grant that it's going to be tough to trust him coming off this start when he faces the Red Sox next week. Drop-O-Meter rating: 3
MacKenzie Gore, Rangers (91%) – I'm actually kind of stunned Gore is as highly rostered as he is. I know he entered this one on a heck of a run; I just figured Fantasy players were done trusting him. I know I am. There will be more good stretches to come, surely, but he's a random number generator, not someone you can ever trust to keep rolling once he gets going. If he wasn't coming up on a two-start week with decent matchups against the A's and Rays, I would be a lot more open to dropping him. Don't be surprised if you regret hanging on to him. Drop-O-Meter rating: 4
Kyle Bradish, Orioles (88%) – I think we're done here. Frankly, we probably should have been done a long time ago. Bradish's 4.03 ERA for the season isn't terrible, but the ceiling is just dramatically lower than we expected coming into the season – did you realize he doesn't have more than five strikeouts in 10 straight starts, dating back to late June? He's shown enough upside in the past that I'm always going to be wary of fully giving up on Bradish, but he just hasn't shown that upside this season, really. Drop-O-Meter rating: 7
Roki Sasaki, Dodgers (78%) – It's mostly been more good than bad for Sasaki lately, but he left Wednesday's game after allowing four earned runs in 3.1 innings with a blister on his right middle finger. That probably won't be a season-ender, but with just over four weeks left, it'll come close; he's eligible to return from the IL Sept. 11, so even if it's a minimum-length stay, you're looking at a max of three starts for Sasaki. With no guarantee he'll be good enough to justify keeping around. Drop-O-Meter rating: 9
J.T. Ginn, Athletics (65%) – Ginn has emerged as a nice mid-rotation starter for the Athletics, and that's a big developmental win for the A's. But he's definitely not the kind of pitcher who needs to be on your roster when things aren't going well. He gave up four runs in six innings Wednesday, and he finishes August with a 4.66 ERA, his second month in a row with an ERA north of 4.50. His groundball rate has dropped to around 40% during his past 10 starts, and with his merely average strikeout rate and control, that isn't good enough to be a must-roster pitcher. That said, he does have two excellent matchups next week against the Rangers and Mariners away from Sacramento, so if you want to keep him around for one more week, I don't have a problem with that. Drop-O-Meter rating: 5
Nick Lodolo, Reds (64%) – Lodolo's stuff has mostly looked fine all season long, and even after having to tweak his breaking ball amid lingering blister issues, that pitcher still looks pretty good. But his feel just hasn't been there all season long, and he gave up two more homers in just four innings against the Giants, who are, to be frank, running a Quad-A lineup out there these days. The talent is still there for Lodolo, but I think we have to just chalk this up as a lost season once and for all. Drop-O-Meter rating: 10
Michael McGreevy, Cardinals (59%) – This one shouldn't be too controversial. McGreevy had an ERA below 3.00 as deep into the season as June 14, but he's been actively harmful enough that he's now up to a 3.86 mark after giving up seven runs Wednesday. He has a 5.09 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 10 starts since the start of July, and it's not like his early-season success ever looked sustainable anyway – he had a 5.75 xERA on June 14. Let him go and don't look back. Drop-O-Meter rating: 10
I should also spend a minute highlighting Sean Burke's terrible start Wednesday. He didn't reach the four-run threshold here, because he was chased after allowing two runs in just three innings against a very beatable Rangers lineup. He walked eight batters in those three innings, and this is now the third straight poor start for Burke, who has allowed 10 runs in 13.1 innings in that span.
And this was something I was worried about a few weeks ago, when I wrote this: "When a players' breakout seems to come down to improved command and execution, it does make it a bit harder to buy into – let's not forget Burke's teammate Davis Martin putting up a 2.00 ERA and 2.32 FIP in his first 11 starts of the season despite using largely the same arsenal as last season, only to flop so badly over the next two months that his ERA is now over 4.00 for the season."
Of course, I also said, "My skepticism can only go so far," so it's not like I'm claiming some incredible foresight here. Burke's stuff took a big step forward in June, but he couldn't sustain that, and now his command seems to be faltering. Burke has been so good for so much of this season that I'm not going to drop him, but we're starting to see some signs of what I was worried about. I'll probably still start him with two starts coming up in Week 24, but I'd be lying if I said this latest slide isn't giving me doubts.
Pre-game Lineup Card
Here's what you might have missed from CBSSports.com's MLB coverage in recent days:
Bullpen report. Mason Montgomery looks like he has emerged as an elite closer. Scott White takes a look at the other noteworthy bullpen situations around baseball.
Trend watch. Mike Axisa looks at how Fernando Tatis has turned his season around, plus the dearth of great right-handed hitters at the top of the leaderboards.
Cal Raleigh back?. Matt Snyder looks into Raleigh's recent hot stretch and what it might mean for the Mariners' playoff hopes.
NL MVP debate. CBS Sports' MLB team debates the Ohtani vs. PCA race.
Hitting the Wire
The top waiver-wire targets from Wednesday's action:
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 1B, Orioles (19%) – I don't have a ton of faith in Encarnacion-Strand as a long-term option. He still doesn't seem like he can do much against righties, with just a .680 OPS against them, and it's tough to maintain Fantasy relevance with that kind of mark against most pitchers. But as a very short-term add, I think he makes a ton of sense, especially since he's red-hot right now, hitting .294 with 15 RBI over his past 13 games. You'll want to add him for at least next week, when he gets three games at Coors Field and gets to face the Red Sox, who are scheduled to throw lefties in three of four games. If there was ever a chance for Encarnacion-Strand to keep this hot streak up, this is it.
Tristan Peters, OF, White Sox (19%) – Here's another great short-term, hot-hand play. Peters has been a solid contributor for the White Sox all season, but he really hasn't made a big impact for Fantasy until the past week or so. But he homered yet again Wednesday as part of an absolutely scorching stretch that has seen him homer in each of his past five games with 10 hits, seven runs, and nine RBI in that span. You might have already missed the best stretch of Peters' career, but with seven righties on the schedule for next week, you might as well add him and see if he can keep riding this hot streak.
Jordan Lawlar, OF, Diamondbacks (36%) – On the whole, I think Lawlar is probably a bit more interesting than either of the two names ahead of him, both because of his prospect pedigree and his youth. It doesn't hurt that he's finally putting all that talent on display this season (when healthy enough to play), as he homered for the third time in just 20 games Wednesday and is hitting .290 with an .830 OPS and four steals. Staying on the field has been a huge issue for Lawlar, but we've always known he has big upside, and we're finally starting to see it against big-league pitching. He could be a big contributor down the stretch.
Connor Norby, 3B, Rockies (7%) – I thought Norby was a pretty sneaky little pickup for the Rockies at the deadline, as a former prospect with some major-league success under his belt who just needed a change of scenery. He has started 11 of 14 games since joining the Rockies and he's putting up pretty good numbers after he went 2 for 4 with a grand slam as part of a five-RBI game Wednesday. He's hitting .310 with two homers, 18 combined runs and RBI, and a couple of steals. This level of production probably won't last, but with a full slate of games in Coors Field next week, he looks like a pretty good streaming option at one of the three positions (1B, 2B, or 3B) where he is eligible.
Hector Rodriguez, OF, Reds(10%) – Wednesday was the 14th game Rodriguez has started out of 22 since he was called up, but it's fair to wonder if he didn't earn a more consistent role with his performance in the win over the Giants. The Reds actually moved him into the leadoff spot for this one, the first time he has hit higher than sixth, and he responded by going 3 for 6 with two homers. His overall line is pretty middling and Rodriguez had shown little power in the majors before Wednesday, but the 22-year-old had 27 homers in 104 games in Triple-A before his promotion, and with little else to play for down the stretch, the Reds might as well give him the rest of the season to see what he can do.
Three Up, Three Down
Three big performances that have players trending up, and three that have the arrow pointing in the opposite direction.
Three Up
Eduardo Rodriguez legitimately dominated the Cubs
Starts like Wednesday's actually make Rodriguez's success this season even more frustrating, because he is apparently capable of actually missing bats and dominating. He had the fastball/changeup combo working about as well as he ever has, peppering the top of the strike zone with four-seamers and cutters and keeping the changeup away to righties or down below the zone where they couldn't do anything with them, leading to 17 of his 18 swinging strikes between the four-seamer and changeup. And he did it against a Cubs team that has been one of the best lineups in baseball this season, less than a month after he had nine strikeouts against the Dodgers of all teams. Outside of those two starts, Rodriguez hasn't had more than strikeouts in a start since May, and yet he has a 2.63 ERA since June 1 and a 2.50 ERA overall. The peripherals certainly don't back it up (4.59 xERA entering the start, 3.70 FIP overall), and at some point this is all going to end. But there's no way you can justify sitting him at this point, even if you're as skeptical of all this as I am.
Rafael Devers has turned things all the way around
Maybe the move with Devers is to just ignore him in drafts and trade for him at the end of April, because this is two years in a row where he has gotten off to a miserable start to the season only to look like his old self from May 1 on. He homered for the third straight game Wednesday against the Reds and is now hitting .259/.347/.549 since May 1, with 27 homers in 102 games. That's eerily similar to what he did from May 1 on last season, when he hit .259/.376/.491 with 30 homers. There are real red flags in Devers' profile that we shouldn't ignore, especially with his plate discipline, and that's pretty scary as he gets set to enter his 30s. But he's going to finish with 30-plus homers and could get to 90 runs and RBI with a batting average that won't help but won't hurt you, and that's good enough to be your starting first baseman. Just maybe consider getting some early-season insurance for him, just in case.
Freddy Peralta finally showed us something
We haven't seen a huge change in either Peralta's approach or the results since he joined the Rays, but we did get our first really positive sign from him in months Wednesday. He shut the Tigers out over six innings, holding them to just two hits and no walks while striking out four. It wasn't a dominant start, nor was it vintage Peralta, but it's still worth noting how well he pitched, given how rare that has become. The changeup was the star here, as he generated eight of his 10 whiffs with the pitch while throwing it 32% of the time (up from a 23% average for the season), but the rest of the arsenal was mostly just okay – he located the four-seamer and curveball well for weak contact, at least. All in all, we're still a long way from Peralta looking like a pitcher you can trust, but if you have the stomach for it, it could be worth starting him against the Rangers and Mets next week to see if he can build off this.
Extra Innings
Joey Cantillo was … effectively wild
Cantillo ended up with a quality start against the Angels despite walking seven and striking out just one over his six innings of work, and that's just as weird as you think it is. The last pitcher to have a quality start while walking at least seven with no more than one strikeout? It was Nate Robertson back in 2005 for the Tigers, who was one of just three pitchers to do it since the start of the 2000 season. This kind of line just doesn't happen anymore, not in this era of pitchers being protected from high pitch counts while chasing strikeouts. As you might expect, Cantillo generated a ton of weak contact to dance his way out of contact, with an 80.4 mph average exit velocity on 16 batted balls. This is not a sustainable way to make a living, and Cantillo now has 16 walks to 21 strikeouts in 22.2 innings over his past five starts. The results have been fine, but the red flags are pretty glaring, so my expectations certainly aren't high the rest of the way.
