99 days until Opening Day …
We had another big trade go down Tuesday, but the Hot Stove has slowed down a bit overall. Cody Bellinger is on his way to the Yankees, and as someone who has been a pretty big Bellinger skeptic the past couple of seasons, I think it's clearly a good move for his Fantasy value in 2025. I went deep on why that is and what I expect from Bellinger this coming season here, but the short version is: It's his best chance of recapturing the 2023 magic again.
Other than that, there hasn't been a ton of notable news in the past few days. We might be entering a fallow period of the offseason, though I sure hope we get at least a few more big moves before people shut things down for the holidays. Arbitrary though they are, the Winter Meetings and the Christmas holiday serve as deadlines of a sort for MLB action in the offseason; once you push into January, teams might be more willing to wait until closer to Spring Training before they feel like they have to push the rest of their chips into the pot.
But just because there isn't much news to talk about right now doesn't mean there's nothing to talk about. Today and Friday, for example, we're talking about draft values for 2025. Today I'm looking at very early Average Draft Position data from the National Fantasy Championship platform to try and identify some early targets and fades for 2025 drafts.
Now, there are a few caveats to note here. For one thing, there's just the simple fact that most people who play Fantasy Baseball aren't even thinking about drafting yet. If you subscribe to this newsletter, you're probably in the 90th percentile of Fantasy Baseball players in terms of your engagement with the game; if you're dutifully reading these words in December, it's probably more like 99th percentile. Which is to say, the people who are drafting right now are not necessarily representative of the Fantasy community as a whole and how they will value players.
And then there's the platform. NFC offers plenty of game options, but there are some peculiarities that lead to some different draft outcomes than other platforms. For one, there aren't IL spots in these leagues, so people tend to play a bit more cautious with injury risks; that is even more true right now, where many of the leagues drafting are of the Draft-And-Hold variety, where the team you pick right now is the one you play with the rest of the way. Without access to the waiver wire, injury risks are even harder to justify for many players.
But the thing is, these drafts that are happening now will help define how a lot of future drafts go. Your favorite Fantasy analyst might not be drafting right now, but he's probably citing this data because, well, it's pretty much the only ADP data we have. So, while plenty will change between when these high-stakes sharks are drafting right now and when your home league drafts in March, this data will color a lot about how we talk about player values over the next three-plus months.
So, let's dive into it. Today, I'm looking at my favorite hitter values based on December ADP, and Friday, I'll have some pitching targets and fades for you to consider. But, as of mid-December, here's where things stand:
Early ADP Review
Favorite early values
Yordan Alvarez, OF, Astros
ADP: 17.6
At some point this offseason, I'm going to sit down and make the case for why four-category superstars like Alvarez, who help everywhere but in stolen bases, might be undervalued in Fantasy these days. Alvarez's price is down a few spots from last year despite playing a career-high 147 games, and that's at least in part because he had a weird down year in terms of run production – despite being nearly as productive as he was a year ago overall, he had just 174 combined runs and RBI, the same number he had in 33 fewer games in 2023.
Despite the loss of Kyle Tucker, I think the Astros are still going to have a solid enough lineup, and I really don't have any concerns about Alvarez being a premium run producer. He was slightly better with the bases empty than with runners in scoring position, something that hasn't really been true in his career, so I think you should expect 100 runs and RBI each from Alvarez if he stays as healthy as he did in 2025. And, though obviously, he's basically a zero in steals – his six in 2024 tripled his previous career total – I think the strength Alvarez brings in both power and average are harder to find in drafts these days than steals. I'll rank Alvarez behind the likes of Corbin Carroll, Julio Rodriguez, and Francisco Lindor, but given the shape of the player pool and how easy speed is to find, I do wonder if we won't look back at the end of the season and think Alvarez was the better pick.
Adley Rutschman, C, Orioles
ADP: 63.5
The actual pick here is more or less fine – I have Rutschman as my No. 61 player in Roto, so this isn't a huge discount. What I want to highlight here is that Rutschman is actually going off the board as the No. 3 catcher right now, behind Yainer Diaz, whose ADP is 58.2. And that I just cannot abide.
Sure, Diaz was the better player in 2024, finishing as a $24.5 player in FanGraphs' Auction Calculator tool, compared to $13.7 for Rutschman. But that's mostly because Rutschman was just awful over the final three months of the season, I think in large part due to a hand injury; on June 27 (when he injured his hand), he had an .830 OPS, compared to a .713 mark from Diaz. Diaz would end up turning things around and posting a .766 mark for the season, which is solid but not near what Rutschman is capable of. Diaz is probably capable of more – he certainly hit for more power as a rookie – but Rutschman is clearly the better hitter of the two, and his power should play up a bit more in 2025 with the Orioles moving their fences up in left field.
Brent Rooker, UT, Athletics
ADP: 76.1
Between Rooker, Shohei Ohtani, Marcell Ozuna, and Kyle Schwarber, at least one-third of every 12-team league is going to be starting a UT-only player in their UT spot, and Giancarlo Stanton and Kyle Manzardo should be worth starting to open the season, too. If half the league might be starting a UT-only player, does it really make sense to discount the UT-only guys the way we typically do?
I'd argue no. Sure, the lack of flexibility makes it moderately harder to build your full roster, and locking in someone like Rooker early can be especially frustrating if you reach a point in the draft where the obvious best hitter left is either another UT-only player or a guy at a position you have already filled. But the thing to keep in mind is it's only a temporary inconvenience. The team you draft won't be the team you have all season, and in Rooker's case, it seems highly likely he'll play more outfield in 2025 after he was largely limited to DH duties last season by a forearm injury. He managed to be a top-12 hitter in Fantasy despite that, and in a way that his underlying numbers largely back up. Add in a better home park in 2025 with the A's move to Sacramento, and I think you can justify taking Rooker up to 25 picks earlier than this ADP in any format.
Marcus Semien, 2B, Rangers
ADP: 91.06
Semien is another one I would be willing to take well ahead of his ADP. I know he wasn't very good in 2025, but it's worth keeping in mind that a "not very good" season from Semien (and the Rangers lineup as a whole) still saw him finish with 101 runs and 23 homers. His quality of contact was largely unchanged from 2023 to 2024, and both his defense and sprint speed were basically identical, a sign that there wasn't exactly a sudden collapse here. Semien has run significantly less in two seasons with Bruce Bochy as Rangers manager, so that does make his margin for error slimmer than it used to be. But we've seen him struggle through whole season-long slumps only to get back to being an impact bat, and I don't buy the idea that he has totally lost it.
Anthony Santander, OF, FA
ADP: 97.1
Something that happens fairly regularly in Fantasy is un-signed free agents tend to have their prices depressed in drafts. And it makes sense to a certain extent because where a player ends up can dramatically change how they are valued. But it seems unlikely that a non-contender is going to sign a 30-year-old Santander, and his power should pretty much play anywhere. Is he likely to repeat last year's 44-homer output? No, I don't think so, but he's now averaging nearly 33 homers per season in his three full-time seasons, and I expect he'll still be batting third or fourth wherever he ends up signing. I'll take the discount as long as Santander remains unsigned.
Bo Bichette, SS Blue Jays
ADP: 146.97
This one is, frankly, absurd. I know how bad Bichette was last season – believe me, I had him on enough teams to know intimately. But it was 81 games, many of which he was clearly at less than 100% health for. Compare that to a five-year, 528-game stretch where Bichette hit .299/.340/.487 while averaging 102 runs, 27 homers, 96 RBI, and 16 steals per 163 games. I'm not sure the steals are likely to come all the way back – Bichette has just 10 over the past two seasons – but I still think 10 is a reasonable expectation, along with 20-plus homers, a great batting average, and hopefully strong run production numbers. Bichette is going off the board behind Anthony Volpe, Ezequeil Tovar, and Matt McLain, and I'd take him over any of them; I might take him ahead of Willy Adames, too, given his negative park shift in San Francisco.
Eugenio Suarez, 3B, Diamondbacks
ADP: 181.8
One thing I want to highlight before I get to Suarez: Isaac Paredes is the obvious choice if we go buy his 259.54 ADP in December. As I wrote in Monday's newsletter, the move to Houston is just about a best-case scenario for Paredes' value and moves him closer to 150 in my rankings as the No. 13 third baseman. There have only been four drafts completed since the trade, but Paredes has gone as high as 167 and now later than 196, and I really don't have any complaints about that. We'll see where he settles in, but it's clear his value has rightly increased since the trade.
So, we'll go with Suarez, who seems to be treated with an awful lot of skepticism for how hot he was to finish last season. I don't expect him to sustain anything like his .943 second-half OPS, but at this price, he doesn't have to – if he comes anywhere close to repeating his full-season line of .256/.319/.469 in Arizona, he's going to be a steal. I understand the skepticism, but let's not forget that, before a down 2023, he had 30-plus homers in five straight seasons (he only had 15 in 2020, but that was in 57 games, so I'm gonna give it to him). It's a lot easier to chalk his 2023 struggles up to playing in a rotten offensive environment in Seattle, especially since his underlying stats last season were right in line with what he actually produced. There's a chance the Diamondbacks trade him, which would change the calculus – he needs the counting stats and run production that offense will provide – but I think he'll be well worth this price if he stays.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 1B, Reds
ADP: 240.5
Encarnacion was really bad in 2024, but here's another one where it's worth keeping in mind the tiny sample size – he played just 29 games while dealing with ligament damage in his wrist. He got healthy enough to play in the Arizona Fall League and should be fine for the start of Spring Training, where he still projects to be the Reds first baseman on Opening Day. He hit 13 homers in 63 games in 2023 and still has the upside to be at least a 25-homer threat – and that is underselling the upside in that home park. He can't be your Plan A at first base, but at a position that gets shallow pretty quickly, he's one of the best late-round targets.
Evan Carter, OF, Rangers
ADP: 280.4
Carter was a borderline top-100 pick last year and then proceeded to play mostly forgettable ball before a back injury ultimately ended his season. Carter still carries some questions about his ultimate power upside and hasn't been an enthusiastic enough base stealer so far in the majors to assume he has that to fall back on despite having plenty of athleticism for it. But the upside is here for 15 homers and 25 steals with very good plate discipline, and the Rangers lineup is another one I expect much better things from in 2025. The back is a bit of a long-term concern, but he's currently healthy, and that's enough for me to rank him more than 80 picks ahead of this ADP.
Biggest fades
Elly De La Cruz, SS, Reds
ADP: 4.4
Okay, so we're doing this again. Look, you're either an Elly De La Cruz person, or you aren't, and I'm just not one. Not as the No. 4 player off the board, at least. The steals are awesome, but he's kind of a two-category player at this point – he was a negative contribution in batting average and RBI last season, and his 25 homers are more "useful for a stolen base source" than especially great. There's certainly still room for him to grow into more of a power threat – and De La Cruz certainly has the raw power to grow into a legitimate 30-homer guy – but he showed no growth in terms of his ability to hit for batting average in 2024. De La Cruz is an awesome player, but relative to other first-rounders, he leaves you at a clear deficit in batting average, homers, and RBI; in an era where steals are easy to find at basically every point in the draft, are his contributions in that category worth taking the hit everywhere else?
It absolutely could be, but it locks you into a very specific team-building philosophy. And every draft I've done so far, I've encountered way more situations where the best player left on my board was a stolen base source. That makes me lean toward De La Cruz just not being worth the premium.
James Wood, Nationals
ADP: 53.2
For a 21-year-old, Wood more than held his own as a rookie, hitting .264 with basically a 20-homer, 30-steal pace for a full season. The case for him feels pretty obvious, actually. He's a supremely talented player, and though he's far from a finished product, we already have a test case for how his profile can work at the MLB level.
But I don't think this price is properly accounting for the downside here. He looks the part of a future superstar, and clearly, many are betting on him getting there relatively quickly. That certainly might happen, but there are also plenty of outcomes for Wood in 2025, where he flounders. He was a less aggressive swinger than you might think for someone who struck out as often as Wood did, which led to decent walk totals and a surprisingly low chase rate; it also means that his strikeouts came from both getting himself into too many pitcher's counts (his in-zone swing rate was just 55.3%, well below average) and from simply swinging and missing too often.
Pitchers challenged him in the strike zone more than your average hitter because his swing is not yet geared to generate much power. What happens if they react to his bordering-on-passive approach with a steady diet of breaking balls out of the zone? Does Wood have the discerning eye to avoid even more strikeouts? Does he figure out how to tune his swing to generate more in-game power? The high-end outcomes here are incredibly high, but Wood has some 2024 Randy Arozarena-esque floor outcomes, too.
Jake Burger, 1B, Rangers
ADP: 125.1
So, here's a weird one: Burger's price has actually increased in nine drafts finished since the trade to Texas. It's a moderate park upgrade and a significant lineup upgrade … if he's in the lineup, that is. I don't think the Rangers traded for Burger with the intention of making him a bench player, but his is not an especially safe profile, given his significant real-life limitations. He can fake it at third base, but he's probably a true DH, and he provides no base running value; oh, and he has a career-high OBP of just .309. If Burger is mashing 30 homers, the Rangers are probably going to keep him in the lineup somewhere. But they have enough depth and options that, if they want to prioritize defense or athleticism in the lineup, benching Burger would be fairly easy. It's not that hard to see Burger spending a significant amount of time on the bench in 2025.
Lane Thomas, OF, Guardians
ADP: 163.1
This is not the kind of in-depth analysis I know you usually expect from me, but honestly … I just don't really think Thomas is very good. He hit .237 with 15 homers last season, but the main draw here remains the speed, as he swiped 32 bases last season. That's nice, but it just doesn't matter as much as it did even two years ago, and I'm not sure the Fantasy world has really adjusted to that reality yet. Twenty-four different players had at least 30 steals last season, after all, and Thomas was no higher than 11th in any of the other four roto categories among that group. Does he really deserve to go 60 spots ahead of Cedric Mullins? I don't really see the case for it.