jeff-hoffman.jpg

70 days until Opening Day ... 

We've spent the past few weeks working pretty much non-stop on our rankings and now they're out in the wild, there for you all to pick over. But I want you to know, this is an evolving process. In part because players' values will literally change between now and Opening Day, between current free agents signing, trades going down, injuries, and whatever else might go on in the next couple of months.

But our rankings will also change between now and Opening Day because how we feel about players will change. Not every player, of course – not most, even. But there are definitely some players who, despite months of research and discussions, I just haven't quite nailed how I feel about them yet. 

That's what today's FBT Newsletter is all about. We talked about some of the toughest players to rank in Tuesday's episode of Fantasy Baseball Today, and in today's newsletter, I'm going in-depth on the 12 players I've had the hardest time trying to figure out how to value. And we're starting with one of the only big-name players to sign during the coldest days of the Hot Stove season to open the year ...

But first, in case you missed it, catch up with the FBT team's Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts picks, plus Scott White's tiered rankings for every position: 

The toughest players to rank

Jeff Hoffman, RP, Blue Jays -- My Rank: RP11

Usually, I put relievers at the bottom of these lists when I go by position, but with Hoffman signing recently, this is also an opportunity to talk about that transaction. He signed a three-year deal with the Blue Jays with the expectation he'll be their closer, and based on the past two seasons, he could be an elite one – his velocity spiked prior to the 2023 season, and Hoffman has a 2.28 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 33.4% strikeout rate since. And he's closing for a possible playoff team? Sounds like a top-12 closer to me, and that's where I rank him. But it's hard to ignore the reports that concerns about his shoulder during the physical process turned the Orioles and Braves off of signing Hoffman to longer-term deals. Maybe both teams wanted Hoffman to transition to the rotation, and had concerns about how he would hold up to that workload, concerns the Blue Jays seemingly don't share, seeing as they got ink to paper. I'm inclined to give Hoffman the benefit of the doubt here, but it's pretty easy to see how things could go rather catastrophically wrong, too. 

Francisco Alvarez, C, Mets -- My Rank: C11

I want to give Alvarez the benefit of the doubt that his disappointing 2024 campaign was mostly due to the thumb surgery he had in April. It's a reasonable enough excuse, given that his plate discipline metrics mostly held constant in 2024 while the damage he made on that contact collapsed. But we're now two basically full seasons into Alvarez's career, and the skill set just doesn't look nearly as impressive as it was promised to be. In 2023, he hit for solid power (especially for a catcher), but he also sported a .209 expected batting average, a sign that maybe he had to sell out for that power. In 2024, the batting average improved, but not nearly enough to make up for his poor quality of contact metrics. Alvarez is still just 23, so I don't want to give up on him, but my enthusiasm has certainly taken a hit. He's still a top-12 catcher, but at this point, it's more a "by default" ranking than something I'm actually excited about. 

Triston Casas, 1B, Red Sox -- My Rank: 1B10

I think it's pretty reasonable to give Casas a lot of benefit of the doubt for his struggles in 2024, because, like Alvarez, he suffered an injury in April that seemingly derailed his season. But the problem here is, in some ways, ranking Casas a top-12 first baseman involves giving him a lot of the benefit of the doubt from his time as a prospect. He did have that huge closing stretch in 2023, where he had a 1.034 OPS in the second half, so it's not all theoretical. But Casas took a big enough step back in 2024 – especially with his plate discipline – that I think it's fair to have questions about how good he's going to end up being. You can still see a Matt Olson-esque outcome here from Casas, I just wish I felt more confident we were going to get even above-average production from him. 

Marcus Semien, 2B, Rangers -- My Rank: 2B3

I want to believe that everyone is being too pessimistic. I want to believe that Semien's struggles in 2024 weren't just a fairly typical mid-30s collapse. But here's the thing: The margin for error with Semien has always been incredibly small. For instance, when he hit 45 homers in 2021 while ranking in just the 59th percentile in average exit velocity and 52nd percentile in hard-hit rate. You could argue – and I mostly believe – that Semien's lift-and-pull approach to hitting, combined with his still-excellent contact skills, make him a good bet to bounce back in 2025. And he'll be in a lineup I expect to be much better, which should give him huge counting stat potential, as we saw in 2023. But the truth is, nobody outruns Father Time forever, and he may have just caught up with Semien last year. I rank Semien much higher than his ADP, but I don't feel great about it. 

Royce Lewis, 3B, Twins -- My Rank: 3B6

Given how much he's been hurt in his career, I don't really know how much stock to put into Lewis' performance. He struggled in 2024, but maybe that was just the cumulative effect of all those injuries catching up to him. And, when you step back and consider his whole track record, here's what it looks like: A .268 average, 33 homers, 104 RBI, 81 runs, and six steals in 152 games. If we got a full season from Lewis and he gave us that, who could complain? Of course, he's never played a full season, and while his underlying career metrics are good, they aren't quite as good as his actual production. If the ceiling is a 35-homer, 110-RBI slugger who doesn't hurt your batting average, the injury risk is still worth taking on, especially in leagues with IL spots. If what we saw last year is more what we should expect from Lewis – and it is the biggest sample size we've gotten from him – then he's probably just a Fantasy also-ran. 

Matt McLain, SS, Reds -- My Rank: SS12

McLain is one of those players I just kept raising in my rankings just so I wouldn't be too far behind the consensus on him, but … I have a lot of doubts. Outside of a ridiculous 41-game stretch in Triple-A, his minor-league track record is more good than great – he hit .232/.363/.453 in Double-A, for example – and while he did more than hold his own in 2023 as a rookie in the majors, there are plenty of holes to poke there, too. McLain had an ugly 28.5% strikeout rate with underlying plate discipline metrics that largely backed it up, and his quality-of-contact metrics were, again, more good than great – 50th percentile average exit velocity, 59th percentile hard-hit rate, and with a swing geared more toward all-fields hitting than something like Semien's approach. McLain's athleticism and his home park will help make up for his deficiencies, assuming a totally lost 2024 due to rib and shoulder injuries hasn't deflated his skill set. I can certainly see the appeal, and a 20-20 season isn't that tough to predict. But there also isn't that much separating McLain's skill set from Zack Gelof's a year ago. 

Ronald Acuna, OF, Braves -- My Rank: OF11

I will feel a lot more comfortable ranking Acuna by the time Spring Training rolls around because we should have a better idea of his timetable by then. As things stand, we just don't know when we can expect to see him on the field. Braves GM Alex Anthopolous has already said he doesn't expect to see Acuna (or Spencer Strider) on Opening Day, and one Braves beat reporter has suggested Acuna could miss "most of the first third of the season," which would make Acuna a tough pick to justify inside of the top 50 on Draft Day. On the other hand, he tore his ACL back in 2021 on July 10, and was back on April 28 of the following season; his torn ACL last year was on May 26, so a similar timetable would have him ready sometime in mid-March. I can understand the Braves playing it more safely this time around, but a 2.5-month delay seems extreme. There are reasons to be cautious with Acuna even if he's ready relatively early – remember how he struggled to hit for power in 2024? – but the timetable is the biggest question right now, and one we can't really hope to answer for at least another month. 

James Wood, OF, Nationals -- My Rank: OF16

Wood's first taste of the majors wasn't perfect, but it's hard to complain too much about a 21-year-old hitting .264/.354/.427 with an 18-homer, 28-steal pace. Of course, as good as he was, he wasn't quite worth his current price as a near top-50 pick. Young players get better, and the ways Wood needs to improve are fairly obvious – he needs to elevate the ball more consistently, especially to the pull side of the field. There is probably always going to be a lot of swing and miss in Wood's game, but with the way he impacts it, he can overcome that and be a Fantasy force, but it'll be a lot easier if he gets the ball in the air more consistently. I just worry that might be a lot easier said than done for a guy as big as Wood is. 

Christian Yelich, OF, Brewers -- My Rank: OF24

If it were as simple as "Is Yelich healthy?" he'd be fairly easy to rank. But coming off back surgery in his mid-30s, we just can't know if Yelich is the same guy he was last year. If he is, then Yelich remains an impact player coming off a season where he hit .315/.406/.504 with the underlying skills indicators to back it up – plus a 40-plus steal pace. But he had surgery to repair a disk in his spine, and at this point in his career, we just don't know how he's going to recover from that. It's possible this procedure fixes the back injuries that have largely kept Yelich from performing at an MVP level, but it seems equally likely that 2024 will be the last time we ever see Yelich play at that level. It's rare for a player this far into Yelich's career to have this kind of uncertainty, but there you have it. 

Gerrit Cole, SP, Yankees -- My Rank: SP11

There were some warning signs there for Cole even before he injured his elbow last spring. Despite winning the Cy Young in 2023, his velocity and strikeout rate both dropped pretty precipitously, and the fact that they didn't recover in 2024 is plenty of reason to be concerned for the 34-year-old. Cole still sort of demands a top-12 ranking, given his track record and the potential that he gets back to that – especially when you see the way the likes of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer maintained their dominance into their late 30s and beyond when they looked to be running out of steam. However, with two years in a row of an apparently declining skill set, Cole is a tougher bet than you'd like – and if he comes out in spring sitting in the mid-90s rather than the high-90s, there's a chance I'll just move him down from here. 

Hunter Greene, SP, Reds -- My Rank: SP31

Because I was in on Greene as a breakout last season, I want to believe that his success was for real. But I don't. Not really. Greene's breakout was fueled by a sudden, dramatic improvement in the quality of contact Greene allowed, which is a big deal given the park he pitches in. In 2023, Greene allowed an expected wOBA on contact of .384, a number that would have ranked 81st out of 139 starters if he qualified; in 2024, that number was just .307, the second-lowest among all starters. If that's for real, even Greene's declining strikeout rate wouldn't be cause for concern. But pitcher quality of contact metrics are extremely noisy from one year to the next, and while Greene's new splitter did help suppress hard contact, the biggest improvement came with his fastball, which went from a .345 xwOBA in 2023 to .282 in 2024. Maybe the addition of another north-south pitch like the splitter helped the fastball avoid barrels, but given Greene's injury history, there's enough ways for this to go wrong that I just struggle to buy in. 

Grayson Rodriguez, SP, Orioles -- My Rank: SP35

"Why is Grayson Rodriguez just 'good' and not great?" seems like one of the key questions for the 2025 Fantasy Baseball season, but I'm not ready to answer it. I've been struggling to wrap my head around Rodriguez for a while now. He's good, to be sure, but doesn't it seem like he should be better? He's one of the most hyped pitching prospects of the past half-decade and has a deep and varied arsenal full of swing-and-miss pitches that also limit damage well, and he's backed up by a great supporting cast. And yet, his career ERA sits at 4.11, and his xERA isn't much better. The whole isn't quite as good as the sum of the parts, and I'm just not sure where the next step comes from. I don't want to miss out on what could be one of the more obvious pitching breakouts of the season, but I'm hesitant to buy into what I haven't seen yet.