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15 days until Opening Day ... 

I have good news for you: No long intro today! We're almost two weeks from Opening Day, and if you're just joining us, you need to get caught up. The Fantasy Baseball Today team has been deep in research since November, but if you haven't quite caught up yet, that's okay.

That's what today's newsletter is all about. It's time to get familiar with the player pool for 2026, and to help out, I've got position previews, strategies, and tiers for every position from Scott White and I. With any luck, with the help of today's newsletter, you'll know every position like the back of your hand in time for your drafts. 

We'll have a whole lot more to make sure you're ready for Opening Day between now and the 25th, too. We're in the home stretch. Let's get to it: 

Catcher Preview and Strategies

"Prepare to be amazed.

You know, catcher, that black sheep of a position that's often as frivolous and frustrating as tight end is in Fantasy Football? What if I told you it's actually good now?

Heard that one before, have you? Gotten burned more than once by some young upstart who ultimately fell victim to attrition, playing-time chicanery, or plain old-fashioned failure? Yes, all three are pretty common at catcher, largely because of the physical demands it places on its participants.

But this time, I mean it. It's not mere wishcasting over some hypothetical somebody. It's not naively whitewashing some deeply flawed data darling. The influx of talent here has been so extensive over the past couple years that the redundancies run deep. And these are all players who, to some degree or another, have already demonstrated what they can do ..." --Scott White

C Tiers

The Elite: Cal Raleigh
The Near-Elite: Hunter Goodman, William Contreras, Ben Rice, Shea Langeliers
The Next-Best Things: Will Smith, Agustin Ramirez, Salvador Perez, Drake Baldwin, Adley Rutschman
The Fallback Options: Samuel Basallo, Yainer Diaz, Carter Jensen, Gabriel Moreno, Kyle Teel, (Ivan Herrera), Francisco Alvarez
The Last Resorts: J.T. Realmuto, Alejandro Kirk, Austin Wells, Dillon Dingler, Logan O'Hoppe
The Leftovers: Carson Kelly, Edgar Quero, Tyler Stephenson, (Moises Ballesteros), Harry Ford, Victor Caratini, Ryan Jeffers, Sean Murphy, Miguel Amaya, Carlos Narvaez, Danny Jansen, Bo Naylor

†: one tier lower in categories/Rotisserie leagues
^: one tier lower in Head-to-Head points leagues
( ): DH-only, but with some hope of becoming eligible here

One sleeper, one breakout, and one bust

Sleeper: Harry Ford, Nationals

Ford has been a top prospect for a pretty long time and hasn't quite developed into the sure-fire difference maker many hoped for. And his profile for Fantasy took an especially big hit in 2025 as he stole just seven bases in 97 games at Triple-A. That puts a lot more pressure on the bat to play up, and things are kind of fringe-y; he makes good swing decisions, but the raw power and contact skills are more average than great, and the hit tool could play down against MLB pitching.

Breakout: Samuel Basallo, Orioles

Rice is everyone's favorite breakout, though I imagine the heat is going to get turned down a bit in drafts after the signing of Paul Goldschmidt as a potential platoon for at least the toughest lefties on the schedule. Rice should still have a playing time edge on most other catchers and might end up being one of the two or three best hitters at the position. 

Bust: Alejandro Kirk, Blue Jays

I guess I just don't get the appeal here? Kirk is coming off a career-best season that saw him hit ... 15 homers with 121 combined runs and RBI? Really, that's all? Sure, he hit .282, but don't you need more than that to be a top-12 option at catcher, especially this year? In theory, Kirk's skill set should at least make him a solid bet for batting average, but even there, he hit just .251 between 2023 and 2024, so you can't even say that. It's reasonable to hope for a useful batting average from Kirk, but he was just 16th in homers, sixth in RBI, and 19th in runs among catchers in 2025. --Chris Towers

First Base Preview and Strategies

"Once a repository for all things slug, first base got stuck in a state of sameness for about a half-decade, recycling the same standouts, with a number of youthful misses along the way.

But then came Nick Kurtz. To say he delivered on the hype would be selling him short. Not only did he homer 36 times in 117 games, giving him a 162-game pace of 50, but he also had arguably the best single-game performance for any hitter in history, homering four times en route to a record 19 total bases. Some players sputter when rushed to the majors. He found another gear.

And with that, the position accustomed to sameness has a new No. 1. Turns out Kurtz wasn't the only one to break through, either. Vinnie Pasquantino finally stayed healthy long enough to deliver on his potential. Tyler Soderstrom made good in his first full season. Michael Busch and Jonathan Aranda had a long road to regular playing time in the majors, but proved deserving of it, delivering numbers much like they did in the minors. Makes you forget all about Triston Casas, doesn't it?" --Scott White

1B Tiers

The Elite: Nick Kurtz, Vladimir Guerrero Jr
The Near-Elite: Pete Alonso, Matt Olson, Bryce Harper, Rafael Devers, Freddie Freeman, Josh Naylor
The Next-Best Things: Ben Rice, Vinnie Pasquantino, Yandy Diaz†, Tyler Soderstrom, Michael Busch
The Fallback Options: Salvador Perez, Spencer Torkelson, Jonathan Aranda
The Last Resorts: Sal Stewart, Munetaka Murakami, Willson Contreras, Alec Burleson, Spencer Steer, Luis Arraez, Kyle Manzardo, Christian Walker, (Bryce Eldridge)
The Leftovers: Andrew Vaughn, Lenyn Sosa, Jake Burger, Miguel Vargas, Nolan Schanuel, Ryan O'Hearn, Coby Mayo, Paul Goldschmidt, Josh Smith, Triston Casas, Romy Gonzalez, Josh Bell

One sleeper, one breakout, and one bust

Sleeper: Munetaka Murakami, White Sox

Murakami was pretty much the best hitter in Japan over the past half-decade, though there were some real ups and downs. He struggled with contact in Japan, striking out around 28-29% of the time over the past three seasons, and it's reasonable to expect that number to be even higher in the majors. So he'll need to be an elite power hitter to overcome that. The good news is he's been the premier power hitter in the second-best professional league in the world and is still very much in his prime. 

Breakout: Kyle Manzardo, Guardians 

We got a near 30-homer season out of Manzardo already, but with a poor batting average and limited counting stats, so I understand the lack of interest in him in drafts. But the Guardians started treating him more like an everyday player down the stretch, as he started seven of their final 10 games against lefty starts, including a must-win playoff game against Tarik Skubal.

Bust: Nick Kurtz, Athletics

He's going to be good. He may even be great. There's even a chance Kurtz is truly a generational talent. And that upside - 45 homers, 100-plus RBI, a good batting average - is worth chasing with a second-round pick. But the likeliest outcome is disappointment. Every rookie with an OPS north of 1.000 except for Ted Williams has regressed the following year, and that's even true for Hall of Fame talents like Aaron Judge, who went four seasons without another 1.000 OPS after his rookie season. --Chris Towers

Second Base Preview and Strategies

"Second base has become increasingly difficult to classify in recent years. Is it deep? Is it shallow? It's all a matter of perspective.

Certainly, it's weak in the sense that few drafters will feel like their second baseman is the crux of their team. The first (Jazz Chisholm) will go off the board late in Round 2, with maybe another (Ketel Marte) in Round 3 and maybe another (Brice Turang) in Round 4. But all three are elevated due to their scarcity and don't bring the same assurances as high-end players at other positions (for instance, first base).

You see the dilemma. Sure, investing big at second base could give you a serious leg up on your competition, but not if it ruins you first ..." --Scott White

2B Tiers

The Elite: Jazz Chisholm, Ketel Marte
The Near-Elite: Brice Turang
The Next-Best Things: Jose Altuve, Nico Hoerner, Luke Keaschall
The Fallback Options: Brandon Lowe, Ozzie Albies, Gleyber Torres†
The Last Resorts: Jorge Polanco, Xavier Edwards, Marcus Semien, Brendan Donovan†, Ceddanne Rafaela, Matt McLain, Bryson Stott, Otto Lopez, Jackson Holliday
The Leftovers: Luis Garcia, Brett Baty, Lenyn Sosa, Colt Keith, Jose Caballero, Brooks Lee, Tommy Edman, Jeff McNeil, Jake Cronenworth, Ernie Clement, Chase Meidroth, Romy Gonzalez, Andres Gimenez, Nolan Gorman, Jonathan India, Willi Castro, Christian Moore, Luisangel Acuna, Sung-Mun Song

One sleeper, one breakout, and one bust

Sleeper: Matt McLain, Reds

I was right to be out on McLain as a top-100 pick this time last year, but I'm a bit more optimistic about his chances for a bounce back than most seemed to be coming into spring. I think too many Fantasy players discounted the impact that missing an entire year coming off shoulder surgery would have on McLain, who simply didn't make enough contact for his relatively limited raw power. A full year off will do that, and he still has some reason to be optimistic - he doesn't swing and miss as much as you'd think for a 29% strikeout rate guy, and if he can cut that K rate to around 24-25%, I think there's a pretty dynamic skill set here. 

Breakout: Luke Keaschall, Twins

Here's the bullish case for Keaschall: For most of his minor-league career, brief though it was, he was more like a high-.100s ISO guy, including when he hit 15 homers in just 102 games in 2024. If there is actually 20-homer potential here - if his poor results and middling underlying numbers in 2025 were the result of coming back from the forearm fracture - then you're talking about some serious upside. He should make plenty of contact, and he should steal plenty of bases (50-steal pace across all levels in 2025), and if we're talking about actual contributions in homers, well, that's a pretty exciting profile. I'm expecting 10 homers and hoping for 15, but I don't think that's the ceiling here.

Bust: Ceddanne Rafaela, Red Sox

I'm having trouble making sense of Rafaela's price. His final numbers in 2025 would justify his current ADP, but it feels like his skillset kinda demands a lot more of a margin for error than we're getting here. Yeah, you'll take 16 homers and 20 steals for a 10th round pick, but the truth is, Rafaela was really only useful in Fantasy for two months in 2025, from June through July, when he had 11 of his homers and seven of his steals. Outside of those two months, Rafaela was pretty much useless, and his poor plate discipline and middling batted ball skills don't exactly back up the idea that the two good months are more likely to be the norm moving forward. --Chris Towers

Third Base Preview and Strategies

"We may have a problem here.

There are times when third base is loaded. It tends to invite larger gentlemen with stronger arms, after all, and with that comes powerful swings, generally speaking. But in those times when defense is more in vogue, third base will end up losing some of its best bats to other, less premium positions.

That's the state the position is in now, and judging by the third base picture in the minors, it's not improving anytime soon. Surely, some of the current shortstop class will end up migrating, for the same reason some third basemen migrate to first base, but when sizing up the true third basemen in the minors right now, only one stands out: Jacob Reimer. And he's blocked about three times over for the Mets ..." --Scott White

3B Tiers

The First-Rounders: Jose Ramirez
The Elite: Junior Caminero, Jazz Chisholm
The Near-Elite: Manny Machado, Austin Riley, Eugenio Suarez, Maikel Garcia
The Next-Best Things: Alex Bregman†, Max Muncy†
The Fallback Options: Matt Chapman, Kazuma Okamoto, Isaac Paredes
The Last Resorts: Noelvi Marte, Royce Lewis, Alec Bohm, Jordan Westburg^
The Leftovers: Addison Barger, Jordan Lawlar, Carlos Correa, Brett Baty, Josh Jung, Caleb Durbin, Mark Vientos, Matt Shaw, Zach McKinstry, Colt Keith, Miguel Vargas, Jose Caballero, Brooks Lee, Ernie Clement, Josh Smith, Connor Norby, Marcelo Mayer, Ryan McMahon, Nolan Arenado, Nolan Gorman, Jonathan India, Willi Castro

One sleeper, one breakout, and one bust

Sleeper: Jordan Lawlar, Diamondbacks

Lawlar has his flaws, for sure. He's struggled mightily to stay healthy in the upper minors, and he has struggled mightily to hit non-fastballs, which is a pretty big red flag that MLB pitchers are more likely to take advantage of than those in the minors. But at this point, the Diamondbacks need to just give him a chance to sink or swim, because there's nothing left to be learned for a guy with an OPS near 1.000 in his career at Triple-A. It looks like Lawlar is at least going to get a chance to play in the outfield for the Diamondbacks, and if he can hack it out there defensively, I still think he's a guy with 20-20 upside in the majors - though my expectations for his batting average continue to decline in the short and longer term.

Breakout: Kazuma Okamoto, Blue Jays

Okamoto combines at least above-average raw power with the skills to put it into play consistently in games. That doesn't mean he'll definitely be a plus major-leaguer, but it's a bet I'm willing to make given his landing spot with the Blue Jays. He ended up signing for four years and $60 million despite turning 30 in June, so the Blue Jays are paying him like they expect him to be an immediate contributor. He'll likely primarily play third base, but could see time at first, second, and the outfield depending on how important it becomes to keep his bat in the lineup. The likeliest outcome for Okamoto is probably something like the post-peak version of Nolan Arenado, and his ADP is still outside of the top-200, making him a very nice target in most leagues.

Bust: Alex Bregman, Cubs

I think Bregman is probably going to be fine. He's less reliant for power on pulling the ball right down the line than Isaac Paredes, and that's the primary reason he was such a bad fit for Wrigley Field. I don't think Bregman is likely to be held back in the same way. But it's been a tough park to hit for power in the past few years, and Bregman doesn't have as much of a margin for error as he used to. If that batting average dips to the .250 range and the homers settle in more in the 20 range in Wrigley, he's going to start looking pretty fringe-y for Fantasy. His price is reasonable enough that I'm not actively avoiding Bregman, but I don't think the ceiling is high enough to make him a big target, either. --Chris Towers

Shortstop Preview and Strategies

"If third base is the position you have to worry about most (and if you've read my third base strategies, you know it is), shortstop is the position you have to worry about least. That comes with a caveat, but it won't apply to 90 percent of you.

Granted, shortstop has had a reputation for being the most star-studded position in Fantasy for darn near a decade now, but it hasn't always been deep to the point that you can't really mess it up. That's how it stacks up now, though. In addition to all the early-round standouts remaining more or less in good standing, Mookie Betts and Geraldo Perdomo have unexpectedly joined the ranks of the elite, Zachary Neto and Jeremy Pena have taken a significant step forward, and Bo Bichette and Trevor Story have shaken off past injuries to regain their place of prominence. By my count, there are 15 shortstops who would be satisfactory starters in any format, along with a handful of others with that same sort of upside.

About that caveat, though: The drop-off thereafter is steep ... " --Scott White

SS Tiers

The First-Rounders: Bobby Witt, Elly De La Cruz^
The Elite: Gunnar Henderson, Trea Turner, Francisco Lindor, Mookie Betts†, Geraldo Perdomo†
The Near-Elite: Zachary Neto, Corey Seager, C.J. Abrams, Bo Bichette
The Next-Best Things: Jeremy Pena, Trevor Story^
The Fallback Options: Willy Adames, Dansby Swanson, Konnor Griffin, Jacob Wilson†
The Last Resorts: Colson Montgomery, Xavier Edwards, JJ Wetherholt, Kevin McGonigle, Xander Bogaerts†, Otto Lopez
The Leftovers: Carlos Correa, Ezequiel Tovar, Masyn Winn, Colt Emerson, Anthony Volpe, Zach McKinstry, Jose Caballero, Brooks Lee, J.P. Crawford, Ernie Clement, Josh Smith, Ha-seong Kim, Jett Williams

One sleeper, one breakout, and one bust

Sleeper: JJ Wetherholt, Cardinals

Wetherholt is likely to be the starting second baseman for the Cardinals, and he's a lot more interesting when he qualifies there. But even if he's only a shortstop, Wetherholt has enough talent to matter even in 12-team leagues. The No. 7 pick in the 2024 draft, Wetherholt hit .306/.421/.510 with 17 homers and 23 steals in 109 games across the high minors, and that included a 91.4 mph average exit velocity at Triple-A - a sign that the power is more than just fringe-y. Wetherholt should hit for a solid batting average, and expecting 15-15 production seems reasonable enough, but with a player this young and talented, that certainly isn't the ceiling. 

Breakout: Elly De La Cruz, Reds

Remember in Toy Story 2 when Woody's arm gets frayed, and Andy very heartlessly tells him, "I don't wanna play with you anymore?" Sure, you've seen the meme! That's Fantasy Baseball players with Elly De La Cruz. For years, you had to talk Fantasy players down from getting too excited about De La Cruz, ranking him as a top-five pick before he ever earned that right. In 2025, he looked like he was finally making that leap, cutting his strikeout rate to 24% in the first half and putting up a .284/.359/.495 line. The speed wasn't where it had been in previous years, but a 30-40 pace with elite run and RBI numbers was more than enough to overcome that. Then he suffered a torn quad in July, never missed a game, collapsed in the second half, and now he's a late-first-rounder who sometimes slips to the second in a Roto league? 

Bust: Trevor Story, Red Sox

Story's production, even during his injury-plagued first few seasons in Boston, was strong enough that it's hard to see the bottom truly falling out. And even when he struggled in 2025 - such as when he put up a .194 xwOBA in May - he promptly bounced back, ending up with a wOBA north of .340 in each of the final four months after a slow start to the season. But man, this profile feels super risky regardless. It comes with some pretty rotten plate discipline (27% strikeout rate, 5% walk rate), and his expected stats (.249 expected batting average, .421 expected slugging percentage) don't leave a ton of margin for error. It would all be easy enough to overlook if we weren't talking about a 32-year-old who went three straight seasons without playing even 95 games before 2025. --Chris Towers

Outfield Preview and Strategies

"More than at any other hitter position, your approach to the outfield will depend on your format. Standard Head-to-Head lineups require only three. Standard Rotisserie lineups require five. Four would be the sweet spot that best accounts for the distribution of talent at the position, but alas, this isn't slow-pitch softball.

Let's tackle three first because it's easier. I don't just mean more straightforward but easier, like a piece of cake. As with catcher and shortstop, you can hardly mess it up when playing on the shallower end of the pool. I count about 40 outfielders that would be satisfactory starters in such a format, along with a few other pure upside plays, so if you just do the math -- 12 teams needing three outfielders each -- you're covered.

Chances are you'll come out of the first round with one of your three outfield spots filled already, given that one-third of the players selected there are outfielders. I'd be reluctant to invest both of those picks in outfielders, but again, I'm speaking for three-outfielder leagues here.

In five-outfielder leagues, there isn't much harm in using your first two picks on outfielders, if that's the way the draft shakes out ..." --Scott White

OF Tiers

The First-Rounders: Aaron Judge, (Shohei Ohtani), Juan Soto, Kyle Tucker, Ronald Acuna Jr., Julio Rodriguez^, (Kyle Schwarber)†
The Elite: Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Chourio, Corbin Carroll, Pete Crow-Armstrong, James Wood, (Yordan Alvarez)
The Near-Elite: Cody Bellinger, Wyatt Langford, Byron Buxton, (Christian Yelich), George Springer, Brent Rooker, Randy Arozarena, Riley Greene, Seiya Suzuki, Jarren Duran, Roman Anthony
The Next-Best Things: Jose Altuve, Michael Harris^, Jackson Merrill, Tyler Soderstrom, Oneil Cruz^
The Fallback Options: Kyle Stowers, Brandon Nimmo, Jo Adell, Luis Robert, Lawrence Butler, Teoscar Hernandez, Jakob Marsee, Taylor Ward, Jurickson Profar, Ian Happ, Mike Trout, Daulton Varsho, Andy Pages, Chandler Simpson^
The Last Resorts: Noelvi Marte, Ramon Laureano, Bryan Reynolds, Ceddanne Rafaela, Brenton Doyle, Steven Kwan, Sal Frelick, Dylan Crews, Alec Burleson, Jac Caglianone, Daylen Lile, Trent Grisham, Wilyer Abreu, Heliot Ramos, Justin Crawford
The Leftovers: Kerry Carpenter, Addison Barger, Giancarlo Stanton, Jasson Dominguez, Adolis Garcia, Joshua Lowe, Carson Benge, Chase DeLauter, Mickey Moniak, Owen Caissie, (Marcell Ozuna), Cedric Mullins, Dominic Canzone, Dylan Beavers, TJ Friedl, Isaac Collins, Zach McKinstry, Colton Cowser, Jose Caballero, Zach Cole, Evan Carter, Jordan Beck, Andrew Benintendi, Jake Mangum, Victor Robles, Nick Castellanos, Jung Hoo Lee, Jorge Soler, Matt Wallner, Austin Hays, Tyler O'Neill, Cam Smith, Jordan Walker, Victor Scott II, Harrison Bader, Lars Nootbaar, Jeff McNeil, Ryan O'Hearn, Trevor Larnach, Tommy Edman, Spencer Jones, Tyler Freeman, Wenceel Perez, Parker Meadows, Jonathan India, Willi Castro, Gavin Lux, Troy Johnston

One sleeper, one breakout, and one bust

Sleeper: Daylen Lile, Nationals

Lile's breakout came out of nowhere, which is why he's being met with such skepticism. But he was also just 22 last year, so I think some are underestimating the possibility of the breakout just being legitimate. He has real plus contact skills and athleticism, and enough raw power that he probably isn't just a slap hitter. It's probably asking too much to expect him to be a .300 hitter forever, but his xBA was actually the best among all qualifying hitters in 2025, so it's certainly not impossible. If you expect something like a .280 average with double-digit homers and 20-plus steals, you'll be happy with Lile, and I don't think that's the ceiling here.

Breakout: Roman Anthony, Red Sox

The case kind of makes itself: Anthony was the top prospect in baseball a year ago, he dominated the minors, and then he came up to the majors as a 21-year-old and more than held his own while showing plus-plus raw power. He probably won't steal many bases, and his home park might make hitting his high-end outcomes for power harder. But Anthony has the skills to be the rare early-round hitter who doesn't steal many bases. I could see some Bryce Harper-esque outcomes here on the high end.

Bust: Oneil Cruz, Pirates

The physical tools are ridiculous. So are the shortcomings. He can't hit lefties. He doesn't elevate the ball consistently. He strikes out more than anyone in baseball. He's not even an especially good defensive player, which doesn't matter directly for Fantasy, but would at least insulate him from some playing time risk. If he fixes some of those flaws, yeah, Cruz could be an absolutely dominant Fantasy option. But he's also 27, so at some point, we probably just need to take him for what he is. The ceiling is high, but there's also a real chance we get a repeat of last season, where he was a big contributor in steals and a below-average one everywhere else. Except, with the Pirates actually seemingly trying to win games this season, the playing time against lefties might be at risk. --Chris Towers

Starting Pitcher Preview and Strategies

"While starting pitcher is only one position, it's basically half the game, so your approach there requires greater care than everywhere else.

And yet ... I couldn't be less stressed about it this year.

That's not my default setting. Longtime followers will remember my early-round insistence in 2020 and 2021 and fixation with The Glob in 2024. Yes, my approach at starting pitcher, while adapting to the latest trends, is usually crystal clear.

But this year, I'm having a hard time caring. It feels like yet another position where there are more than enough similar options to satisfy me. It's deep at the top. It's deep in the middle. It's deep at the bottom. And when I say deep, I don't just mean similar. The middle ranks, especially, are so packed with upside that the draft is likely to end before my enthusiasm does. Even as someone who prefers not to invest heavily at the position, I can't tell you how many times in a Rotisserie draft I've found myself saying, "I wish I still had a spot for that guy" ..." --Scott White

SP Tiers

The First-Rounders: Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Paul Skenes
The Elite: Chris Sale, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Logan Gilbert, Cristopher Sanchez, Bryan Woo, Max Fried, Hunter Brown, Cole Ragans, Hunter Greene, Jacob deGrom^, Logan Webb†, Framber Valdez†
The Near-Elite: Jesus Luzardo, Freddy Peralta, George Kirby, Kyle Bradish, Joe Ryan, Shohei Ohtani^, Tyler Glasnow^, Eury Perez, Dylan Cease, Nick Pivetta
The Next-Best Things: Brandon Woodruff, Trevor Rogers, Spencer Strider, Chase Burns, Blake Snell, Kevin Gausman, Nick Lodolo, Gavin Williams, Nolan McLean, Trey Yesavage, Cameron Schlittler
The Fallback Options: Nathan Eovaldi, Bubba Chandler, Jacob Misiorowski, Emmet Sheehan, Tatsuya Imai, Robbie Ray, Michael King, Ranger Suarez, Kris Bubic, Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, Sandy Alcantara, Joe Musgrove, Cade Horton, Shota Imanaga, Zack Wheeler, Carlos Rodon, Drew Rasmussen^, Tanner Bibee, Ryan Pepiot
The Last Resorts: Edward Cabrera, Andrew Abbott, Matthew Boyd, Gerrit Cole, Shane Bieber, MacKenzie Gore, Grayson Rodriguez, Roki Sasaki, Shane McClanahan, Aaron Nola, Zac Gallen, Andrew Painter, Merrill Kelly, Ryne Nelson*, Quinn Priester, Shane Baz, Shane Smith, Noah Cameron, Jacob Lopez, Sean Manaea, Michael Burrows, Jack Leiter, Ryan Weathers
The Leftovers: Connelly Early, Parker Messick, Bryce Miller, Jack Flaherty, Kodai Senga, Zebby Matthews, Jared Jones, Reid Detmers*, Tyler Mahle, Bailey Ober, Reynaldo Lopez, Grant Holmes, Robby Snelling, Cody Ponce*, Braxton Ashcraft*, Joey Cantillo*, Logan Henderson, Jameson Taillon, Lucas Giolito, Brayan Bello, Seth Lugo, Casey Mize, Brady Singer, David Peterson, Michael Wacha, Jose Soriano, Mitch Keller, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, Luis Morales, Taj Bradley, Luis Gil, Justin Steele, Zack Littell, Jonah Tong, Steven Matz*, Ian Seymour*, Tyler Wells, Justin Verlander, Max Meyer, Corbin Burnes, Brandon Sproat, Joe Boyle, Cade Cavalli, Clay Holmes, Zach Eflin, Cristian Javier, German Marquez

One sleeper, one breakout, and one bust

Sleeper: Kris Bubic, Royals

That Bubic is coming back from a rotator cuff strain that ended his breakout season early is likely what is keeping his price down, and that's a pretty big red flag ... if he costs much at all to draft. However, with his price sitting outside of the top 200, much of the downside risk here is mitigated, and what we're left with is a pitcher who showed legitimate front-of-rotation upside last season. Bubic threw 116.1 innings with a 2.55 ERA, and while the peripherals don't quite back it up, they don't suggest it was some fluke either - you'd still take his 3.16 expected ERA, wouldn't you? 

Breakout: Chase Burns, Reds

It's a 70-grade fastball and a 70-grade slider. The changeup is a work in progress, the command can be an issue, and there are real questions about his ability to stay healthy given how hard he throws (and last year's IL stint with a Grade 1 flexor tendon strain). It's not hard to see how things go wrong, and Burns isn't even guaranteed a spot in the rotation as of now, though it seems extremely unlikely he won't be in the end! But it's a 70-grade fastball and a 70-grade slider. At the risk of oversimplifying, players with this kind of stuff usually work out. It's a limited arsenal (he's working on the changeup and has a curveball, but neither is likely to be much more than show-me pitches), but it's the kind of limited arsenal that has made stars out of Hunter Greene and Spencer Strider. Turns out, when you can throw like those dudes, nuance matters a lot less.

Bust: Spencer Strider, Braves

I'm at the point where I need to see a real reason to get excited about Strider, and the last time I saw that was roughly in September of 2023. His fastball went from an exemplary weapon to an outright liability in 2025 after his return from the Internal Brace procedure on his right elbow, and nothing we've seen so far this spring makes me think he's solved that issue. Yes, he's not focusing on velocity this spring, but I can't give him credit for being the 2023 version of himself without seeing signs of it, and right now, he's maxing out around the same velocity he used to average. The slider is still a special pitch, but right now, it doesn't look like he has anything to go with it. Maybe I'll end up wrong. I hope so - I'm rooting against myself on this one! But Strider looks like someone you can roll the dice on around the 45th-50th pitcher off the board, not a top-30 one. --Chris Towers