I want to say I don't know what to expect from Jacob deGrom. When he makes his season debut Friday, he'll do so as a 36-year-old coming back from his second Tommy John surgery, and that carries a lot of inherent uncertainty with it. Just ask Walker Buehler, who has been an outright disaster in his comeback from his own second Tommy John surgery.
But let's be real. We know exactly what to expect from Jacob deGrom: Utter dominance.
Is that an absolute certainty? Would I bet my life on it? Well, I guess I wouldn't go that far, but … Yeah, I'm expecting deGrom to go out there and pitch like one of the best pitchers in baseball. That's what he's been for the better part of a decade, and I saw no reason to doubt he can still be that during his minor-league rehab assignment, where he struck out 15 over 10.2 innings where he more or less looked like himself.
We have Statcast data for deGrom's rehab assignment when he was at Triple-A, and he was averaging 98.2 mph with his four-seamer and had a 43% whiff rate on his slider and a 50% whiff rate on his changeup – all in small samples, of course, as he threw just 67 pitches total. But still, it was enough to convince me that deGrom is still deGrom.
Now, the next question is, "How excited should we be for Fantasy?" And, I'll grant, that's one I have less certainty of. deGrom maxed out at four innings and 49 pitches in his rehab assignment, and with the Rangers more or less playing for 2025 at this point, I do expect them to be pretty cautious with him. I'd be pretty shocked if we saw six innings from deGrom in his first start back in the majors in 17 months. And that makes it pretty tough to trust him for Fantasy purposes.
But, what's that you say? He's facing the Mariners? The Mariners, who still have the highest strikeout rate of any non-COVID-shortened season team in MLB history? Well, okay then, yeah, I'm probably starting deGrom in his first start back. Maybe not in all H2H points leagues – getting a win and a quality start is a lot more important in that format – but in Roto? Yeah, I'd expect him to be very helpful in the ratio stats and strikeouts, so I'll throw him out there.
Maybe it won't work out. There are no certainties in this life. But there aren't many more certainties in Fantasy Baseball, especially with starting pitching, and especially in September. So, yeah, I'll roll the dice with the greatest pitcher of the past decade in his first start back. Let's do it.
Wednesday's waiver targets
Keider Montero, SP, Tigers (12%) – I always feel weird about situations where a player accomplishes something genuinely noteworthy and impressive, and my reaction for Fantasy is … to shrug. Montero tossed a complete game shutout Tuesday, making him just the 16th player to do so this season, which ain't nothing. But when you look at the list of names, you see some real superstars, but you've also got some complete nonfactors like Tyler Phillips, Joey Estes, and Braxton Garrett, plus some decent, but not dominant guys like Gavin Stone, Luis Severino, and Kevin Gausman. Which is all to say, yes, this was an impressive performance from Montero, but I'm not sure it should radically alter your view of him. He's not entirely without merit – his slider and curveball both seem like pretty decent pitches, and both generated a bunch of swings and misses and weak contact in this one. But if you're asking if I think Montero put himself in the "must-add" conversation for the stretch run with this one, no, I don't.
Parker Meadows, OF, Tigers (28%) – Now, here's a player on the Tigers I do think is a difference-maker for the stretch run. Meadows has been one since coming off the IL in early August, hitting .308 with four homers, 21 runs, 20 RBI, and five steals in 30 games. And, for those of you worried about him not playing every day, he has started 29 of 34 games in that stretch, so I'm not actually sure that's an issue anymore. The Tigers are giving him a chance to play every day, and he's taking advantage of it, to the point where I think he might actually be a viable option even in H2H points leagues right now.
Albert Suarez, SP, Orioles (32%) – I'm not sure where this came from for Suarez, who has been decent at times this season, but rarely as a bat-misser. He generated 21 whiffs on 101 pitches against a tough Red Sox lineup, en route to an eight-strikeout quality start. He threw his curveball and changeup about twice as often as usual, and maybe that was just enough to let everything else in his arsenal play up. Suarez now has a 2.43 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over his past seven starts, albeit with much less than a strikeout per inning, so I'm not totally buying in. On the other hand, he might be a two-start pitcher in Week 27, with matchups on the way against the Giants and Tigers, which should make him a viable streamer.
Rhett Lowder, SP, Reds (42%) – The book on Lowder when he came up from the minors was that, while he was a recent first-round pick and pretty highly touted prospect, it was more in a "high-floor, low-ceiling" kind of way. Pitchers are always tough to classify in that manner because we're never as good at projecting either floor or ceiling as we think we are, but in Lowder's case, it looks bang on. He has a 0.59 ERA over his first three career starts, however with just a 1.24 WHIP and 7.0 K/9, which is pretty uninspiring. He does get a decent matchup against the Pirates next week, so I'm fine starting him for that one in deeper leagues, at least.
Matt Wallner, OF, Twins () – I don't know if it's because people were burned by him earlier in the year, but Wallner's low roster rate just doesn't make much sense to me. Sure, his limitations are obvious, but the thing is, they haven't been holding him back lately; Wallner is hitting .290 with an OPS north of 1.000 over his past 50 games despite a 34% strikeout rate. He probably can't keep that up forever, but his quality of contact numbers are massive (94.6 mph average exit velocity, 21% barrel rate), which indicates that it isn't just a fluke. Wallner will sit against some lefties, but he has started 45 of 55 games since coming back from Triple-A, so even that isn't that big of an impediment. If it wasn't for Meadows, I'd say Wallner might be the most under-rostered player in Fantasy right now.
