I'm going to start this busts column by offering an apology to Chris Carson. This also extends to any Fantasy managers who wanted to draft him prior to the past couple of weeks but avoided him because of me.
I was wrong to call Carson a bust. I hope he will forgive me.
I've written several versions of busts already this offseason on our site and in our Fantasy Football magazines. In most of those columns, I suggested Carson was a bust candidate and would struggle in 2019.
With Rashaad Penny expected to get more work, which should happen, as well as Carson having a minor procedure on his knee this offseason (he's fine), I expected him to get drafted too soon. I also thought he would struggle to replicate his performance from 2018 when he was the No. 15 PPR running back with 247 carries for 1,151 yards (4.7 yards per carry) and nine touchdowns, as well as 20 catches for 163 yards.
Carson should remain the lead back in Seattle, and he should get a bigger role in the passing game with Mike Davis gone. Penny's impact could be significant, but not enough to scare you from drafting Carson at his current Average Draft Position in Round 4.
In non-PPR leagues, I can even support Carson being drafted in Round 3. I was wrong to doubt Carson, and he's no longer someone to consider as a bust.
As for the rest of the players listed here, these are players who you might want to avoid, especially at their current cost on Draft Day. ADP is always the best guide to determine a bust candidate, and I'm concerned about these 12 players in 2019.
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QB Busts
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We all know Brees is a Hall of Famer, and he's in the discussion for greatest quarterbacks of all time. But that doesn't mean you have to draft him as a starting Fantasy option in 2019. And right now, he's being selected as the No. 7 quarterback off the board based on the CBS Sports ADP. That's too soon. He was the No. 8 quarterback in 2018, but he significantly faded down the stretch last year when he averaged 12.5 Fantasy points per game in his final four outings, with a high of 19 points against Pittsburgh at home in Week 16. Now, three of those games were on the road, and we know he's always been better in New Orleans. But there are other reasons to be worried about Brees, including passing for fewer than 4,000 yards for the first time as a member of the Saints. He also attempted just 489 passes, the fewest for him since coming to New Orleans. Remember, in 2017 he only had 23 passing touchdowns, and he was the No. 11 Fantasy quarterback that year. I expect him to finish closer to that than in the top five, and he's someone you might want to avoid this year, especially at his ADP.
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RB Busts
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Bell is the No. 7 player off the board based on the CBS Sports ADP, and he's being drafted as the No. 5 running back behind Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey and Ezekiel Elliott. I understand the hope that Bell will be the same running back with the Jets that he was with the Steelers, and it would be great if that becomes a reality. But you have to factor in so many differences in the two situations, which all appear to be downgrades for Bell now. Quarterback, offensive line and receiving corps are all worse for Bell with the Jets, and we'll see how Adam Gase plans to use Bell, especially with the recent talk of Ty Montgomery having a bigger role than previously expected. I'm fine taking a chance on Bell in Round 2, but I can't sign off on him as the No. 5 running back at No. 7 overall. We also don't know how he'll perform after taking a full season off, and now we're not going to see him in the preseason. I'd rather have Nick Chubb, James Conner and Joe Mixon over Bell this year.
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There will come a point in every draft where it makes sense to take a chance on Gordon. That could be Round 3, which is where his ADP is now on CBS, and he's the No. 15 running back off the board. For me, it's more like Round 5 because I expect him to miss significant time with his contract holdout. I hope that I'm wrong about that because it would be great if Gordon is playing in Week 1. But all indications are Gordon is going to drag this out to get the money he wants in a new deal -- if he gets that at all. The Chargers seem content to go with Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson, and I like both a lot as Fantasy options. Neither one will produce like Gordon, but they have one ability right now that Gordon doesn't -- availability. If Gordon's not playing, he's not helping your Fantasy team, so I would avoid drafting him in Round 3 of most formats.
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One reason to avoid Henry, who is the No. 22 running back off the board on the CBS Sports ADP, is the calf injury that kept him out for the start of training camp and the first two preseason games. He appears to be fine now, but hopefully there's no setback during the season. Along with that, you also have to consider which Henry you're going to get in 2019. He was awesome last season to close the year with 87 carries for 585 yards (6.7 yards per carry) and seven touchdowns in his final four games. But prior to Week 14, Henry was a bust with 128 carries for 474 yards (3.7 yards per carry) and five touchdowns over the first 12 games. Are you willing to invest a fourth-round pick in that kind of production? Plus, Henry doesn't catch the ball with 39 catches in 47 career games. The Titans are going to give Dion Lewis touches, and he's looked good so far in the preseason with Henry out. It's risky to trust Henry at his current price tag, and I'm likely never going to draft him this season, especially in PPR, unless he's there in Round 6 or later.
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Lindsay had an amazing story last season when he went from an undrafted rookie free agent to making the Pro Bowl, and he's a local kid in Denver playing for the Broncos. He lived with his parents, and he told me at the Pro Bowl his goal was to just make the team and hopefully play on special teams. Instead, he was the No. 13 PPR running back, but I don't expect him to repeat that performance. Royce Freeman should have a bigger role than his disappointing rookie campaign, and eventually Theo Riddick (shoulder) should make an impact in the passing game. I still expect Lindsay to be good, and he should be better than Freeman. But Lindsday is the No. 24 running back off the board, and he's being drafted in Round 4. That's too soon for me, and I'd rather just wait for Freeman in Round 10 if you want a piece of this Denver backfield.
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Cohen was awesome last season as the No. 11 PPR running back, but I'm concerned about him repeating that performance. He had 170 total touches in a shared situation with Jordan Howard, but the Bears replaced Howard with a standout rookie in David Montgomery and a capable veteran in Mike Davis. Both are better suited to work in the passing game than Howard, which could hurt Cohen's role. I don't have a problem with Cohen as a No. 3 running back in PPR, but I've seen some places where he's ranked as a starting option. That's risky, especially if Montgomery ends up as a workhorse running back in his rookie campaign. I'd rather have Montgomery than Cohen in any format, and the earliest I would draft Cohen is Round 6, even in PPR.
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WR Busts
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I'm writing this the day after Raiders general manager Mike Mayock said it's time for Brown "to be all in or all out" with the team for this season. Well, I'm all out on Brown as a Fantasy receiver if I have to draft him in the early part of Round 3. From the weird injury with his feet in the cryotherapy chamber to his helmet saga, this just feels like someone headed for a disastrous season. And I want no part of it. He was already trending in the wrong direction going from the Steelers to the Raiders, especially with the quarterback downgrade from Ben Roethlisberger to Derek Carr. But you also should question if he's really dedicated to playing given his approach to training camp with his new team. It could all be a story just to create drama for no reason at all, but I'm avoiding it. The earliest I would draft Brown is late Round 3 in PPR and Round 4 in non-PPR leagues.
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If you expect to draft Jeffery as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver, that's the right spot for him. But I've seen him ranked as a No. 2 option, which is a mistake. He's still the No. 1 receiver for the Eagles, but there are so many mouths to feed in this offense with DeSean Jackson and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside now on the roster with Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert and Nelson Agholor, as well as the running backs out of the backfield. Last year, Jeffery had nine games with eight targets or less. In those nine games, he averaged 10.0 PPR points per game, with only three games with more than eight PPR points. For the season, he averaged 14.2 PPR points per game, so he needs volume to be successful. I'm not sure he's going to get it on a consistent level, and I'm likely not going to have many shares of Jeffery this year. The earliest I would draft him is Round 7, and his ADP has him going in Round 6 in most formats.
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I'm surprised to see Landry's ADP as the No. 25 receiver off the board, especially in non-PPR leagues. There's no way I'm drafting him in that spot, even in PPR. Landry had a respectable season in 2018, his first with the Browns, and he was the No. 18 receiver in PPR. But in Fantasy points per game, he was the No. 27 PPR receiver at 13.5 points. And in the eight games with Freddie Kitchens calling plays, Landry's average points per game declined to 12.1. Again, that's still solid, but he did that without Odell Beckham on the field. It's hard to envision Landry staying near the 150-target mark. And he's never been a consistent touchdown producer with only four receiving scores in three of his past four years. Landry is a fine No. 3 Fantasy receiver in any format, but don't draft him as a potential starter this season.
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I was fine with Kirk as a sleeper when I first wrote about him in February, but his ADP has climbed to a point where now I consider him a bust. He's being drafted as the No. 29 receiver off the board in Round 6, and that's just too soon. The Cardinals offense will be better than it's shown through the first two preseason games, but you have to be slightly concerned that this team could struggle with a rookie quarterback in Kyler Murray. And Kliff Kingsbury is going to spread the ball around to multiple receivers, especially if rookies Andy Isabella and KeeSean Johnson make a significant impact this year as expected. Also, don't forget about Larry Fitzgerald, who could still be the best receiver in Arizona this season. I'm fine taking a chance on Kirk in Round 7 or later, but he's not someone I'm chasing at his current ADP.
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Pettis has been one of the biggest fallers this preseason, and it's hard to even justify drafting him as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver this year. This was after he was in the mix as a potential starter prior to training camp. With Marquise Goodwin back and the additions of Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd, Pettis isn't guaranteed to dominate targets, especially when you factor in George Kittle and the running backs out of the backfield. Pettis was great at the end of last season with at least 13 PPR points in four of his final five games, but it's a small sample size to say he deserves to be a top 100 overall pick in any format. And Jimmy Garoppolo also has to prove he's back at a high level from last year's torn ACL, which could take some time. I'm hesitant to draft Pettis after what we've seen so far in training camp and the first two preseason games. Instead, I might just wait for Goodwin in Round 14 based on his ADP.
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TE Busts
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I can't wait to see how the Colts offense looks when everyone is healthy, and hopefully that's the case with Andrew Luck by the time we get to Week 1. He's trending in the right direction with his ankle/calf injury, but if he suffers a setback then it's potential bad news for all the Indianapolis skill players, including Ebron. He will get a boost if Luck is ready as expected, but then you have to factor in all the mouths to feed in this offense with Jack Doyle back and newcomers in Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell, as well as T.Y. Hilton and the running backs. Ebron won't score 14 total touchdowns as he did last season, and it's fair to wonder if he scores even half that many. He's being drafted as the No. 7 tight end off the board in Round 6, and I'm not touching him at that value. The earliest I would consider Ebron is Round 10.
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So which Fantasy Football busts should you avoid in your draft? And which superstar QB isn't a trustworthy QB1 option? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy Football cheat sheets from the model that called Allen Robinson's disappointing season, and find out.
