When training camp opened we had a minimum of four running backs who were openly unhappy with their contracts and not practicing. Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley came to terms with their current teams and appear to be full go's for the season. J.K. Dobbins likewise gave in and agreed to play under his current contract. Jonathan Taylor did not.
On Tuesday the Indianapolis Colts chose not to trade Taylor and left him on the Physically Unable to Perform list. While we don't know what that means for Taylor's long-term future, we can now be sure he will not be playing Weeks 1-4. There's still a chance he doesn't play for the Colts ever again, and Fantasy managers can't feel good about the chances that he will help their Fantasy team this season.
A trio of Colts running backs were moved up in the rankings, but due to the uncertainty they aren't much more than double-digit rounds dart throws. If Zack Moss is healthy, he will get the first shot, but Evan Hull is the most exciting.
Running back draft strategy
First and foremost, Zero-RB is no longer a novelty. In Best Ball and high-stakes leagues, it has become the norm. Because CBS ADP still shows six running backs going in the first round, and 20 in the first four rounds, I would not expect the strategy to be as popular in drafts that occur here. And that probably makes the strategy more viable, because you can load your roster with top-12 wide receivers and elite players at quarterback and tight end. There's a list of my favorite Zero-RB targets later in this article.
The second most desirable strategy in 2023, and the one I will lean towards most this year, is Hero-RB. That involves landing one elite running back in Round 1 or Round 2 (either from Tier 1 or Tier 2 in the tiers below) and then stockpiling elite starters everywhere else before returning to the position. This is less stressful than Zero-RB because it's easier to fill one starting spot in the late rounds and waiver wire than it is two.
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Finally, if you find yourself in one of those leagues where no one seems to want a running back, I am fine with taking two, or even three, running backs in the first three rounds. This works better in half PPR leagues than it does in full PPR and it's actually desirable in non-PPR. It also probably means waiting on QB and TE because Rounds 4, 5, and 6 are prime WR territory.
Now let's get into the sleepers, breakouts, and busts at the position:
With J.D. McKissic gone, Gibson is primed to take on a majority of the work on passing downs in Eric Bienemy's offense that is expected to heavily feature the screen game. Gibson has at least 42 catches each of the past two seasons and has the upside to top 60 in 2023. That, combined with 10-12 rush attempts per game gives Gibson a chance at borderline RB2 production, which makes his Round 9 price tag a bargain.
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Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker were both banged up in camp, but Charbonnet got back first and both are expected to play in Week 1. Even when both backs are healthy, Charbonnet profiles as the better option on both passing downs and short yardage. If he hits his ceiling, he'll turn Walker into a trap back who is dependent on those home runs to score touchdowns and double-digit Fantasy points.
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Warren has been one of the fastest risers in consensus rankings, but his ADP is still comfortably in the double-digit rounds. His usage and performance in the preseason indicates that he will have a larger role than last year, and if Najee Harris continues to struggle it's possible Warren could pull even in the timeshare. We're comfortable taking Warren as early as Round 9.
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Mattison takes over for Dalvin Cook, who was cut this offseason. Mattison topped 50% of the snaps three times in his first four years in the league. He topped 100 yards from scrimmage and 20 PPR Fantasy points in all three games. That is not a fair expectation in 2023, but he does have top-12 upside and he's a near guarantee as a top-20 back if he doesn't get hurt.
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Like Mattison, White is taking over for a departed veteran. And like Mattison, he has a three-game sample to get you excited. From Week 10-13 last year White averaged 94.4 yards from scrimmage and 16.4 PPR FPPG. With Leonard Fournette gone, White will be the feature back and should benefit if Baker Mayfield wins the job because Mayfield led the NFL in checkdown rate in 2022.
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Cook will be the lead back for the Buffalo Bills and could really benefit from the Bills desire to take some of the rushing wear and tear off of Josh Allen. For one thing, Cooks is an excellent pass catcher and Allen could dump the ball off instead of scrambling when plays go sideways. It's also possible Allen runs less in the red zone, though it's less clear that role would be Cook's. Cook averaged 6.2 yards per touch as a rookie. If he keeps that up, he won't need a huge workload to break out.
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Harris is the rare back-to-back bust pick from me. Well, maybe not that rare, I did it with Kyle Pitts in 2021 and 2022 as well. Harris has been wildly inefficient as both a runner and a pass catcher in his first two seasons in the league, averaging 3.9 yards per carry and just 4.7 yards per target. He lost most of the pass-catching role to Jaylen Warren last year and he may lose carries this year if he doesn't see an efficiency spike. The track record for backs who touch the ball as much as he has and produce as little as he has in their first two years in the league is very concerning.
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Hall is off the PUP and his ADP has fallen to the four/five turn, and I'm still not buying him there. The Jets gave significant money to Dalvin Cook, and I expect a full-blown committee, because that is what Nathaniel Hackett has done for most of his career. In fact, I expect Cook to lead that committee for the first half of the year at least. I wouldn't draft Hall before Round 6.
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Walker has battled a groin injury all preseason. We expect him to be ready Week 1, but we're not sure he'll be the same guy he was last year. We're also not sure how touches will be divided between Walker and rookie Zach Charbonnet. The rookie profiles as a better pass catcher and a better short yardage runner, two of the most valuable attributes for a running back in Fantasy Football. If Walker loses one of those roles he may have trouble meeting ADP. If he loses both he has no chance.
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Numbers to know
5 -- Bijan Robinson is the fifth running back since 2010 to be drafted in the top 10 of the NFL Draft. The first four all finished top 10 in Fantasy as a rookie, Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott were both top-two.
231 -- Elliott left behind 231 carries in Dallas. If Tony Pollard receives even half of those, he has RB1 overall upside.
45 -- Jamaal Williams had 45 carries inside the 5-yard line last year. There should be some regression, but David Montgomery is in an excellent position to score double-digit touchdowns for the second time in his career.
546 -- Lions' running backs totaled 546 opportunities (carries plus targets) in 2022. That's plenty of room for both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs to be top 25 running backs.
12.1% -- Only 12% of Jalen Hurts' passes went to running backs last year, the lowest mark in the league. That will have to change in a big way for any pass-catching running back in Philadelphia to matter.
11.7 -- Kareem Hunt has averaged 11.7 touches per game the past four seasons. Either Nick Chubb is about to see a big boost or Jerome Ford is going to have flex appeal.
70 -- Miles Sanders averaged 70 targets per 17 games in his two seasons with Duce Staley. He's reunited with Staley in Carolina and may be a three-down back again.
2 -- Aaron Jones has finished no worse than second in targets on the Packers each of the past four seasons.
4.8 -- Alvin Kamara has averaged 4.8 yards per touch the past two seasons. He was at 6.2 the first four years of his career. The suspension may not be his only problem.
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Zero-RB targets
I'll update this list as ADP solidifies, but for now, there is no shortage of running backs available if you want to focus on quarterback and pass catchers in the first five-plus rounds. I tried to include a good mix of floor and upside guys because I would like to have some pass-catching backs to start while I wait for the backups to gain jobs. For this version, I'm using CBS Sports PPR ADP. For the most part, the suggested round is a round earlier than the player is actually being drafted. You can't be too cute getting your guys at running back if you punt on the early rounds.
Round 6 - Rachaad White, Javonte Williams, James Cook, Alvin Kamara
Round 7 - A.J. Dillon, Brian Robinson
Round 8 - Antonio Gibson, Samaje Perine, Zach Charbonnet
Round 9 - Jaylen Warren
Round 10 -Devon Achane, Roschon Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott
Round 11 - Tank Bigsby, Jeff Wilson, Kenneth Gainwell
Round 12 or later - Ty Chandler, Tyjae Spears, Keaontay Ingram, Kendre Miller, Zamir White, Devin Singletary, Deuce Vaughn, Zack Moss, Evan Hull, Deon Jackson
Handcuff rankings
Below are the top 10 PPR handcuffs to draft on Draft Day. Obviously, A.J. Dillon is much more than a handcuff, but the reason he's on this list, and someone like Kenneth Gainwell is not, is the fact that Dillon could be a league-winner in the event Aaron Jones gets hurt. Gainwell's role wouldn't likely change with one injury. So, while Dillon can be a flex in a PPR league even without an injury, he's also one of the best handcuffs. I don't traditionally draft handcuffs to my starters, but I don't mind taking someone else's.
1. Samaje Perine
2. A.J. Dillon
3. Zach Charbonnet
4. Jaylen Warren
5. Ezekiel Elliott
6. Elijah Mitchell
7. Jamaal Williams
8. Tank Bigsby
9. Roschon Johnson
10. Tyjae Spears
Tiers
Projections
Which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade, and which QB shocks the NFL with a top-10 performance? Visit SportsLine now to get cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that simulates every game 10,000 times and nailed Deebo Samuel as a bust last year, and find out.
