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USATSI

We strive for accuracy here. Our goal is to give you our best predictions about what is most likely to happen in the forthcoming NFL season.

But winning in Fantasy Football isn't just about identifying the most likely outcome for every player. You need to identify outliers to beat the competition and take home the trophy at the end of the season. You need to identify those early-round landmines and let them sink other players' Fantasy seasons, while you find the breakout stars and surprise starters who will put your team over the top. 

That's what this piece is about, specifically. Not about the likeliest outcome, but our best guesses about the players or teams that are going to have an outsized influence on the outcome of the Fantasy Football season. These won't all come true -- we might be lucky to bat .500 here. But, if these predictions do come true, they could be the difference between winning a championship and being an also-ran. That's what we're here for, after all.

Adam Aizer

Jahmyr Gibbs will be a top-five running back

Quite simply, Gibbs will be a better, more efficient and more explosive player than David Montgomery. In fact, Gibbs will be the most explosive player on the team (at least until Jameson Williams returns from suspension). Look for the Lions to get Gibbs involved in the passing game, and look for his talent to lead to more and more work as the season progresses. Alvin Kamara was a top-five RB as a rookie with 120 carries and 81 catches. Gibbs will have more carries and similar Fantasy production. 

Jerry Jeudy will be a top-five wide receiver

Jeudy had a quiet breakout in 2022, which is hidden by the three games he left early with injuries (he caught just five passes in those three games). In his 12 healthy games, Jeudy averaged nearly 16 PPR points per game. That's better than what Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith averaged! He also got better late in the season as Russell Wilson went away from Courtland Sutton and focused on Jeudy. Oh, and the Broncos scored the fewest points in the NFL. New coach, better offense, breakout season for Jeudy.

Marquise Brown will be a top-10 wide receiver

He already did this in 2022! Well, sorta. In the first six games of the season, Brown was a top-10 WR while Kyler Murray was healthy and DeAndre Hopkins was suspended. This season he won't have Hopkins to contend with, and there is an encouraging track record of quarterbacks recovering quickly from ACL tears. Murray could be back sooner than we expect. I don't see a reason why Brown won't be a target hog for the Cardinals. Top 10 might be lofty, but I feel great about him outperforming his average draft position.

Heath Cummings

Tua Tagovailoa plays 17 games and throws for 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns

We are never as certain about injury risk as we think we are. Tagovailoa is not a running quarterback, and the Dolphins have made an effort to upgrade their offensive line. That group will protect him, and he will have a monster year. Last year he led the NFL in yards per pass attempt, touchdown rate, and quarterback rating. He has arguably the best WR duo in the league in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. In the 12 games he played at least 70% of the offensive snaps, Tagovailoa was on pace for 4,813 yards and 35 TDs, and that was his first year in Mike McDaniel's system.

Pat Freiermuth finishes the year as TE3 with 900 yards receiving and seven TDs

When looking for a breakout tight end, you should look for a guy who could be first or second on his team in targets. Freiermuth was second last year, with 14 more targets than George Pickens in one fewer game. Freiermuth's breakout in 2022 was masked by the fact that Kenny Pickett had a 1.8% touchdown rate. Rookie QBs are notorious for low touchdown rates, but this is an extreme outlier. Even if you think Pickett is one of the worst QBs in the league, you would expect a near doubling of his TD rate, and Freiermuth, with his 30 career red-zone targets, will benefit. Last year's volume with seven TDs puts Freiermuth in the TE3 conversation, so imagine if he gets better.

Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are the first duo since AB & JuJu to both top 100 catches and 1,000 yards

Last year the Vikings threw 672 passes despite winning 13 games. Nearly everyone expects them to be worse this year, which gives them the potential to lead the NFL in pass attempts. That's what Ben Roethlisberger did the year Brown and Smith-Schuster hit this mark. Jefferson's end of this bargain is easy enough, but don't sleep on Addison. He profiles as a high-volume target earner (he caught 100 passes at Pitt in just 14 games in 2021) who could thrive on those short-area targets like Smith-Schuster did and take a few to the house in the process. 

Jamey Eisenberg

Anthony Richardson will become the second quarterback all-time to pass for at least 3,000 yards and rush for at least 1,000 yards

While three quarterbacks in history have rushed for 1,000 yards (Michael Vick, Lamar Jackson twice and Justin Fields), only Jackson in 2019 topped 3,000 yards passing. But I expect Richardson to join Jackson in the 3,000-1,000 club. In 12 games at Florida in 2022, Richardson was on a 17-game pace of 3,611 passing yards and 927 rushing yards. You can't expect the exact same production in the NFL, but you can see the potential Richardson provides. Colts coach Shane Steichen was just the offensive coordinator in Philadelphia, where Jalen Hurts proved to be one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the NFL, so the system should favor Richardson. He has the chance to be historic in his rookie campaign.

Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk will be the best wide receiver duo in the NFL

It won't be easy to top the likes of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. But there is a path for Ridley and Kirk to be the NFL's top duo. During Trevor Lawrence's best five games in 2022 (Weeks 10-15), Kirk averaged 15.8 PPR points per game, and Zay Jones, who was Jacksonville's No. 2 receiver last season, averaged 19.8. Ridley is an upgrade over Jones if he returns to form following last year's suspension, and I'm expecting Lawrence and the Jaguars offense to take off in 2023. Those five games from 2022 should be a taste of what's to come this year.

Rhamondre Stevenson will have the best PPR season for a running back in Patriots history

Stevenson's performance in 2022 stands as the No. 6 all-time PPR season in New England history at 249.1 points. Curtis Martin (1996) is No. 1 at 292.5 points, but Stevenson should top that this season. The key will be if Stevenson remains featured in the passing game since he caught 69 of 88 targets last year. With Damien Harris now in Buffalo, Stevenson should see a bump from his 210 carries in 2022, and hopefully he tops 300 total touches. The Patriots offense will hopefully improve with new offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien, and Stevenson should be the team's best player. I love drafting Stevenson in Round 2 in all leagues.

Dave Richard

Aaron Jones will not finish as a top-20 Fantasy running back

New Packers QB Jordan Love threw to his running backs 14.2% of the time in college and 15% of the time in the pros. That tendency is bad for Jones, who might be a longshot to catch 50 passes again. Love's arrival also means more RPO runs, which Jones hasn't been as efficient running over the past two years as A.J. Dillon has been. And in 2022, Dillon played 13 more snaps and had five more touches inside the 5-yard line than Jones with four touchdowns to Jones' one receiving score. The soon-to-be 29-year-old has an uphill battle for Fantasy dominance.

Calvin Ridley will be a top-five Fantasy wide receiver

During June OTAs, Jaguars beat reporters claimed Ridley "looked like the ultimate weapon" and noted his "freakish athleticism." Given Ridley's history, I'd expect these reports to continue through training camp, making Ridley an incredible breakout (or maybe re-breakout?) candidate. Jacksonville already has been trending toward being a pass-first offense with Trevor Lawrence. With Marvin Jones gone and the other pass catchers, including Christian Kirk, expected to see a target decline, Ridley has a takeover opportunity for as many as 150 targets this season. Before his suspension, Ridley had a career average of one touchdown every 13.6 targets. Do the math.

The only New York Giant worth a top-150 pick is Saquon Barkley

Be it because of injuries or by choice, last year's Giants offense seemed focused on spreading targets around. No wide receiver or tight end had more than 71 on the season, and even during the best stretches for some pass-catchers, none averaged seven targets per game. Newcomer Darren Waller still has some juice to go with his size, but he's missed six-plus games in each of the past two seasons and shouldn't be counted on to hog targets like he once did. None of the Giants' other acquisitions or holdovers figure to command a consistent target share from Daniel Jones.

Dan Schneier

Calvin Ridley finishes as a top-12 WR

The Jaguars were missing one key component to take their offense and Trevor Lawrence's elite arm to the next level, and they weren't going to find it via the 2023 NFL Draft or free agency. That component was an outside receiver who can consistently beat press coverage on the vertical plane. When we last saw Ridley play a full season in 2021, he was exactly that. With all reports from OTAs suggesting Ridley is in excellent shape and playing with extra motivation, he can bounce back to WR1 status with big plays mixed into the deep passing game in addition to route wins at all three levels with his elite route running.

Deshaun Watson finishes as a top-seven QB

This one requires a leap of faith and you'll have to ignore what you saw on game film and statistically in Watson's debut with the Browns in 2022. Watson hadn't played football in two years. Now with a full offseason and season to build a rapport with his supporting cast and get re-accustomed to the speed of the game, Watson could thrive with a supporting cast that has a lot to like. Amari Cooper and David Njoku return, plus the Browns traded for talented slot receiver Eli Moore and drafted prototypical outside WR Cedric Tillman to offer size, vertical route-running and an above-the-rim element to the pass game. The offensive philosophy appears set to move pass first, and Watson will benefit most.

Darren Waller finishes as the TE2 overall

Although it might not seem that way on paper, Waller joined arguably the best situation he could have when traded to the Giants this offseason. Daniel Jones finished in the top five in first-down rate, completion percentage and QBR when targeting tight ends last season. Coach Brian Daboll and OC Mike Kafka have a history of maximizing tight ends (Daboll in New England, Kafka in Kansas City), and they were often the first read in the red zone last season in New York. Waller should immediately become the No. 1 target for Jones in the red zone and he was also likely brought in to help expand the Giants' vertical passing game. That's a recipe for Fantasy success.

Chris Towers

Cooper Kupp is the No. 1 WR again

This one probably shouldn't actually be a bold prediction seeing as he led the position in per-game scoring last season, but Kupp is probably going to be the third or fourth WR taken in most leagues, so I'll count it. The last time Kupp went consecutive weeks without scoring 20-plus PPR points was Weeks 4 and 5 of the 2021 season, and he's averaging 24.7 points per game over his past two seasons. Kupp is in the wrong part of the aging curve and has serious questions about the quality of offense around him, but Matthew Stafford is also healthier than he was at this time last year, by all accounts. Kupp has been so much better than the field the past few seasons, and I think his upside is, if anything, being slept on. 

Kyle Pitts finishes as the No. 1 TE in Fantasy

The 2023 rookie tight end class is considered to be one of the best to enter the NFL in a long time, so I think it's a fun point of comparison to note that Pitts is still younger than three of the six guys drafted in the first two rounds this year. That's despite being drafted two years earlier than them and already having a 1,000-yard season under his belt in the NFL. Last season was a disaster, but Pitts was still one of just eight players over the past five seasons with a target share over 28% and an average depth of target over 10 yards -- the rest of the list features names like Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Julio Jones, Mark Andrews and A.J. Brown. More competent QB play might be all he needs to emerge as the elite option we've been waiting for. 

Isiah Pacheco isn't a top-36 RB in Fantasy

I know he's the presumptive starting running back on an elite offense, but I don't think that's enough to make Pacheco a viable starter for Fantasy. Remember, he started the final 14 games last season, including the playoffs, and had just two games with more than 15 PPR points -- and none with 17-plus. For reference, Clyde Edwards-Helaire had two of 20-plus points in the first four games. I think Pacheco will remain the starter ahead of CEH, but he just won't get high-value touches often enough to matter for Fantasy. 

This article appears in the CBS Sports/Beckett Sports 2023 Fantasy Football Magazine. Pick up your copy at newsstands in mid-August.