Fantasy Football 2024 Draft Prep: Jamey Eisenberg's Busts 4.0 identifies players to pass on at their ADP

Purdy finished last season as the No. 7 quarterback at 22.4 Fantasy points per game, and he was fantastic. But there are two things that concern me about Purdy as we head into Labor Day weekend. For starters, his ADP is the No. 11 quarterback, and I don't want to draft him as a No. 1 Fantasy option. I'd rather have Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jared Goff instead of Purdy, and all of those guys are being drafted later. Purdy got good news that Brandon Aiyuk signed a new deal prior to Week 1, but left tackle Trent Williams remains out while dealing with his contract situation. Williams is the best offensive lineman in the NFL, so hopefully he shows up for Week 1. If Purdy opens the season as your No. 2 quarterback it's great. But don't draft him as a No. 1 option based on his ADP.

I moved Williams down this week from an early second-round pick to a late second, early third-round pick. There were several reasons for this, and his ADP is the No. 13 overall player. The offensive line for the Rams is beat up right now with left tackle Alaric Jackson suspended for the first two games for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy, and left guard Jonah Jackson (shoulder) and right tackle Rob Havenstein (ankle) are injured. When I looked at my rankings, I liked the situations for Isiah Pacheco, Travis Etienne, and Josh Jacobs better, so I moved them ahead of Williams. And while the punt return news isn't concerning, it was something else Sean McVay added about Williams, "You feel comfortable with that because of the confidence in Blake Corum and Ronnie Rivers being able to spell him if need be." The appeal of Williams, who missed four games due to an ankle injury last season, was his workload, and he averaged 21.6 touches per game, third-most in the NFL. I always expected Corum to play, but we don't need three running backs for the Rams to limit Williams' touches. I've drafted Williams several times already in early Round 2, but now I'll let someone else draft him in that spot.

For most of the offseason, I had Henry ranked as a No. 1 running back, but I never really wanted to draft him in Round 2. And his ADP is the No. 15 overall player, which is too soon for him to come off the board. The good news for Henry is last year in six wins for the Titans he averaged 21.4 PPR points per game, and the Ravens have averaged 10 wins per season for 16 years under John Harbaugh. But Henry is 30 now, and most running backs can't escape Father Time. And last year, Henry had his lowest yards per carry (4.2) and yards after contact per attempt (3.32) since taking over as a full-time starter. The Ravens also will have three new starting offensive linemen this season. Now, Henry should have the chance to score double digits in touchdowns, and Gus Edwards had 13 touchdowns for Baltimore in 2023. But Edwards averaged only 11.0 PPR points per game with 990 total yards and 12 receptions. Henry should exceed those totals, but he's not going to be a huge factor in the passing game in this offense (his career high in receptions is 33 in 2022). I'm OK with Henry in Round 3, but you shouldn't draft him in early Round 2.

If I can draft Conner as a flex this season then I'm thrilled about it, but his ADP is 47.8 as the No. 18 running back, which is too rich for me. He's 29, and he's potentially facing significant competition for touches in third-round rookie Trey Benson. Conner also has missed at least three games in five of his past six seasons, which you have to factor in when drafting him. When healthy, he's been great, and he just had the first 1,000-yard season of his career in 2023 (1,040), while also setting a career-high in yards per carry (5.0). But he also saw the fewest targets (33) and catches (27 and 2.1 per game) since he was a barely-used rookie with Pittsburgh in 2017. We hope he's not becoming a Fantasy running back who is reliant on his rushing production alone, and Benson could impact those stats as well. The earliest I would draft Conner is Round 6 in most leagues.

The last time we saw Jones was at the end of an impressive five-game run through the NFL playoffs for the Packers. From Week 16 through the Divisional Round of the playoffs, Jones was on fire, with five games in a row of at least 108 rushing yards, and he scored at least 13 PPR points in each outing. But Jones struggled with injuries for most of the 2023 campaign, and that's hard to forget. He missed the majority of the first five weeks of the season due to a hamstring injury, and then he missed Weeks 12-14 while dealing with a sprained MCL. At 29 (he turns 30 in December), Jones' best production could be behind him. With the Vikings, Jones will share touches with Ty Chandler, and there was a Yahoo report in training camp that indicated the duo will have a 50-50 split. You also have a suspect quarterback in Sam Darnold that could limit the entire offense in Minnesota. Age and durability are reasonable concerns for Jones, and the earliest I would draft him this season is Round 7 in all leagues.

I don't mind his ADP at No. 29 overall in Round 3, but he's still the No. 11 wide receiver, which is too soon. He's the No. 16 receiver in my rankings, and I have only drafted Adams once so far this season. I had Adams as a bust last season, and he averaged 15.6 PPR points per game, which was his lowest total since 2017. I was nervous about him turning 30, his quarterback situation, and some unrealistic expectations for Fantasy managers, who were still drafting Adams in Round 1. I have a lot of those same concerns this season, especially since he's 31 and potentially on the decline. Since 2014, there have been 63 wide receivers aged 31 or older to start at least 10 games in a season. Only eight of them have finished in the top 12 in PPR and only 15 have finished in the top 25. That doesn't bode well for Adams' upside this year. Gardner Minshew will start for the Raiders this season, and he was great for Michael Pittman Jr. last year in Indianapolis with 156 targets for 109 catches, 1,152 yards, and four touchdowns. But Adams has earned at least 175 targets in each of his two seasons with the Raiders and scored 22 touchdowns. If those numbers come down then Adams' Fantasy production could crater. It could be a long year for Adams in 2024.

Moore's ADP is actually OK at No. 46 overall, and he should be considered a No. 2 Fantasy receiver. He's just not someone I'm drafting this season because I expect a downturn in his production from last year. In 2023, Moore averaged a career-best 16.9 PPR points per game, but he was the clear focal point of the passing game with 136 targets. This season, the Bears added Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, and both will command plenty of targets, which should impact Moore. We also have to see how Moore adjusts to a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams, and hopefully, he'll be as good for Moore as Justin Fields was in 2023, which sounds strange but could be true. Moore should still be productive but don't be surprised if he's below 15 PPR points per game this season with the new additions to Chicago's receiving corps. He should definitely be drafted as a starter in the majority of leagues, but don't reach for him on Draft Day based on how he performed in 2023.

Pittman was No. 9 in targets in 2023 with 156. He was No. 4 among receivers in receptions with 109. And he added 1,152 yards and four touchdowns last season in a breakout campaign when he averaged 15.6 PPR points per game. In his past three seasons, with a variety of quarterbacks, Pittman has averaged at least 13.5 PPR points per game, so he has a safe floor. But I'm only drafting him in Round 5, and yet he's the No. 47 player off the board. I'm concerned about his target volume with Anthony Richardson at quarterback, and the Colts added another talented receiver in rookie Adonai Mitchell to go with Josh Downs (ankle), who will hopefully be healthy early in the season. Pittman can still be a No. 2 Fantasy receiver in the majority of leagues, but you shouldn't reach for him in Round 4.

Diggs turned 30 last November. His decline in Buffalo started right around that time. Maybe it's not a coincidence. Last year, in his final season in Buffalo, Diggs averaged 16.1 PPR points per game, which was his lowest total since joining the team in 2020. The last time Diggs reached 100 receiving yards was Week 6, and he scored fewer than nine PPR points in six of his final eight games in the regular season -- right around his birthday. Now, I still think Diggs has plenty to offer with the Texans and will prove to be a valuable weapon for C.J. Stroud. But he's also now part of a crowded receiving corps with Nico Collins and Tank Dell, and don't forget about Dalton Schultz and Joe Mixon as well. Diggs had gone four seasons in a row with at least 154 targets with Buffalo, and it's hard to expect that level of attention with Houston. I like Collins and Dell better than Diggs, and the earliest I would draft him is Round 6. But his current ADP is No. 50 overall, and that's too soon, especially with guys like Malik Nabers, George Pickens, Tee Higgins, and even Dell going after Diggs. I would pass on Diggs for any of those receivers this year.

Kelce, despite his struggles last year, was still the No. 1 Fantasy tight end at 14.63 PPR points per game (just slightly ahead of T.J. Hockenson at 14.60). Kelce did that despite falling below 1,000 yards (984) for the first time since 2015 and catching just five touchdowns, which matched his worst total since 2017. He'll be 35 in October, and the Chiefs will likely limit his snaps again (he played 77 percent of the snaps last year, which was his lowest total since 2014). I still believe he's capable of around 15 PPR points per game, which is why he's No. 2 in my rankings, but he's being drafted in a bad spot. His ADP is in Round 2 at No. 23 overall. More importantly, he's being drafted 13 spots ahead of Sam LaPorta (No. 36 overall), 21 spots ahead of Mark Andrews (No. 44), and 28 spots ahead of Trey McBride (No. 51). I would rather pass on Kelce and target any of those other three tight ends, especially McBride at that price. Kelce also could have a target crunch with the Chiefs, who should have Rashee Rice for a full season and added Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy. For the first time in a long time, I'm out on Kelce if you have to draft him in Round 2.