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USATSI

As a broke college kid, I discovered the thrill of potentially turning a small bet into thousands of dollars playing Daily Fantasy Sports. I was in love with both the NFL and NBA, and I heard about DFS in January after the NFL season was already over. Within my first week of playing daily fantasy hoops, I happened to win a contest with roughly 5,000 people in it. It was my first taste of playing Fantasy sports for money, previously my buddies and I had only competed for bragging rights. It's a miracle that I didn't fall down a gambling rabbit hole.

Instead, I fell down an information rabbit hole, becoming obsessed with the process of projecting how playing time and opportunities to touch the ball would be spread among a team full of basketball players. I found tools that enabled me to examine each team's splits when certain players were on or off the court, and this capability truly felt like a superpower coming from a background of mostly guesswork – at that time, advanced NFL analytics tools were tough to come by. This newfound world of hyper-specific data capabilities fascinated me, and returning to an archaic NFL research process the following fall was painful.

Fantasy football has come a long way as an industry since then, advanced analytics are more readily available than ever before. It is with immense gratitude that I can reflect on those days, as the current Fantasy football analysis landscape is bright and beautiful to the point of overstimulation. As someone who has been seeking out the edges of this space for a long time, I feel spoiled by the amount of information available in 2024.

In seconds, I can find out what percentages of A.J. Brown's routes resulted in a target on plays when Jalen Hurts was blitzed. Within that split, I can filter out plays in which Dallas Goedert was on the field. I can filter it further to only include plays in which the Eagles were playing with a lead. The possibilities are endless! There is so much for us to learn, and each offseason I set out to learn as much as I can. I owe it to my broke college self! And in honor of the early 2010s daily Fantasy NBA grind that sparked my curiosity for what on/off splits can teach us, I'm psyched to present the NFL version – I dug into any instances of missed time from the 2023 season with curiosity about what those results might mean for the 2024 season and beyond!

In this space, the focus will be specifically on relevant on/off player splits. How might a full season of Will Levis at QB impact DeAndre Hopkins? How much was Puka Nacua's target share impacted by Cooper Kupp's absence in 2023? What does the trade of Diontae Johnson possibly mean for George Pickens? Those are the types of player-specific questions that we'll explore today. If you are curious about some of the other capabilities of 2024's cutting-edge analytics tools and what I've been learning about this offseason, I invite you to seek out the Fantasy Football Today newsletter. You can have my work delivered directly to your email inbox!

After digging through each team's 2023 season and projecting forward to 2024, there were 12 situations that stood out to me. I'm excited to share them with you in this space!

Three WR sets increasing in Seattle?

New Seahawks offensive coordinator Ryan Grubbs hails from one of the heaviest three wide receiver offenses in college football (with the Washington Huskies).

Seattle's target per route run rate with Jaxon Smith-Njigba off of the field in 2023:

27% – DK Metcalf

24% – Tyler Lockett

Seattle's target per route run rate with Jaxon Smith-Njigba on the field in 2023:

22% – Lockett

20% – Metcalf

20% – Smith-Njigba

The Seahawks used three-receiver sets 62% of the time offensively in 2023. The Washington Huskies posted a 79% rate under Grubb's offensive design. We'll likely see more Smith-Njigba than during his rookie season, and it's possible that will result in fewer targets for Seattle's longtime stud WR duo. Of the two, Metcalf's targets were most notably impacted by Smith-Njigba's presence in 2023.

You can find the other 11 situation, including on/off splits for the Packers receivers with/without Christian Watson, Travis Kelce without Rashee Rice and a lot more over at Sportsline.