One message I try to get across every year is that just because we call someone a bust, it does not mean we think they are bad at football. Average draft position plays a huge part in determining who we think will bust. This year, the wide receiver position provides an excellent illustration. There is not a wide receiver in the first six rounds that I have ranked more than a round below their ADP. That does not mean that my wide receiver rankings are chalk, I don't agree at all on the order the wide receivers are going in, but for the most part, they are all going cheaper than I think they should. So, while I did have several wide receiver busts in the first two editions of this column, I can't rightly call any of the receivers a bust this season. That doesn't mean I would advise drafting all of them at cost.
Mike Evans, Justin Jefferson, and A.J. Brown are all receivers that I had in my bust column earlier this year, but they are all within 10 picks of where I would draft them now. In Evans case, I believe that is because he's been dinged up at training camp with a quad injury and a groin injury. You don't need to make any substation jokes, because this is just continuing a trend from the past two years. He has missed 12 games in the past two seasons, he's now 33 years old, and he hasn't been able to practice for two weeks without something feeling tight. Even in Round 6 I don't want to pull the trigger, but the direction Evans' ADP is going he'll be a Round 7 pick by tomorrow. The middle of Round 7 is where I would take him, expecting that when he's healthy he could still be a solid WR2 for my team. Just plan on building depth around him.
ADP is much closer to where my ranking is for Jefferson and Brown as well. When I called Jefferson a bust he had a Round 1 ADP. Right now, on CBS at least, he's in the middle of Round 2, which is fine. I still prefer CeeDee Lamb and Drake London to him, so I don't ever draft him, but he's too talented to call him a bust in Round 2. Most of the movement on Brown has come from me. I was worried about his knee, worried about whether he was still the same guy after a disappointing 2025. The clips against Philadelphia in joint practices convinced me to stop being so scared. Or maybe they convinced me to be scared of calling him a bust. Either way, he's a late Round 2 pick by ADP and an early Round 3 pick in my rankings. Hardly a bust call.
One other quick note, for those of you who look at ADP a lot during drafts. Ignore Josh Jacobs' ADP. He may be the biggest bust. We wouldn't draft him before Round 10.
Six players I do still think are busts at their current ADP:
Josh Allen, QB, Bills
ADP: 20.5
I fully expect Allen to be one of the best quarterbacks in Fantasy this season, but the distribution of QB ADPs make no sense. Allen is being drafted 20 picks before any other QB and 30 picks before QB3. We do not rank him as QB1 because we expect him to outscore ther top QBs by a significant margin. We do it because he is the most likely to finish as a top three QB. There is no justification for drafting him this far ahead of everyone else, even if we all agree he should be drafted first at the position. I wouldn't draft him until mid Round 3 at the earliest.
Cam Skattebo, RB, Giants
ADP: 38.3
Skattebo is unlikely to have the same pass-catching role that he did last year, could lose short yardage work to one of the the veterans, and is coming off of a significant leg injury. His projection is in the same range as backs being drafted in Round 5, and he's going at the three-four turn. Add in questions about the overall quality of the Giants offense and I am not even sure he should be the first back drafted in Round 5. It may sound laughable, but Najee Harris could be a real problem for Skattebo if he is fully recovered from his injury.
Bucky Irving, RB, Buccaneers
ADP: 43.8
Irving is in a very similar range as Skattebo in my projections, which makes him a late Round 5 pick. The concerns are very similar to what happened last year. Kenneth Gainwell will infringe on his pass-game work and Sean Tucker is still a threat in short yardage. In 2025, Tampa Bay did not give Irving a carry inside the five yard line. If Irving gets those carries this year then he has a chance to be a small win in Round 4, but that isn't guaranteed.
David Montgomery, RB, Texans
ADP: 51.9
This is one of the busts that has stuck throughout the summer. Unlike Irving, Montgomery is pretty much guaranteed short touchdowns; I am not sure there will be much else to like, though. Woody Marks will handle at least a third of the team's rush attempts and serve as their primary pass-catching running back. And it is hard to quantify how much worse the Texans' line blocking for Montgomery is than the Lions' line he has run behind over the last few seasons. I would not draft Montgomery until Round 6.
Harold Fannin, TE, Browns
ADP: 71.5
This is one of the craziest ADP's of them all. Ad you know how much I love Fannin. He is up a full round in the last week and is now being drafted before Tucker Kraft, Kyle Pitts, George Kittle, and Isaiah Likely. My biggest problems with this have nothing to do with Fannin's talent. KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston provide much more target competition than what Fannin faced last year and Deshaun Watson winning the quarterback competition was the worst possible outcome as well. Let's hope Fannin gets a better quarterback and a more palatable ADP in 2027.
Caleb Williams, QB, Bears
ADP: 78.9
I indeed prefer Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, Justin Herbert, and Trevor Lawrence over Williams this year. But my biggest problem with his cost is that he's going 20 picks before Purdy and 30 picks before Goff. If you are going to draft from this tier of QBs, just wait for the last one, don't reach for the first one. Williams does have more rushing upside than most of the guys in this tier, but so far he has also been definitively the worst passer. I don't think he has more Fantasy upside than Purdy, who was QB1 per game through Week 17 last year and ranks QB4 per game over the last three seasons.
