We all love targeting sleepers on Draft Day in our Fantasy leagues. These are players you can draft with a mid-round pick, or someone you pick with one of your last selections. And the latter is something that can be the most gratifying when that player succeeds. It's why you clicked on this story.
For this week, as the calendar turns from June to July, I'm going to look at players you can draft at pick No. 150 overall and later. I'll use the Average Draft Position data on FantasyPros now, and we'll revisit this topic again in August using our ADP on CBS Sports.
You can call these players deep sleepers. And some of these guys are being selected after kickers, which is amazing, because several of these players will be league-winners in 2020.
At tight end, we have a great example of a player drafted in this range last year who became a weekly starter with Austin Hooper. His ADP in 2019 was in Round 13 at No. 161 overall, and he finished as the No. 6 tight end -- as well as No. 3 in PPR points per game (14.7).
Our goal is to find the next Hooper, or several of those guys, for 2020. These are tight ends you should be targeting at the end of your draft.
Editor's note: Players are listed in order of Jamey Eisenberg's rankings.
I'm surprised Smith is in this range, and I expect his ADP to rise as we get closer to the season. He's a breakout candidate in 2020, and I have him ranked as a top-12 option. Over his final nine games in the regular season in 2019, with Delanie Walker out with an ankle injury, Smith scored at least 11 PPR points in four of those outings. He also had at least five targets in four of those games, and the Titans gave him three carries over that span. And Smith scored a touchdown in the divisional-round upset against Baltimore. Smith might not become a top five Fantasy tight end this year, but he could be a top-10 option. He's the perfect tight end to wait for on Draft Day, and you should be thrilled if he ends up on your Fantasy roster.
Doyle should benefit in a big way with Philip Rivers joining the Colts. Rivers has a great history of throwing to his tight ends, including future Hall of Famer Antonio Gates and standout Hunter Henry during his time with the Chargers. Doyle isn't on their level as a playmaker, but he did have a productive season in 2017 with 11.3 PPR points per game on 80 catches, 690 yards and four touchdowns on 108 targets. That's a realistic expectation this season for Doyle, who should be among the top four pass catchers for the Colts with T.Y. Hilton, Michael Pittman Jr. and Nyheim Hines. Doyle should be considered a low-end starter in most leagues.
The Cowboys are loaded with weapons after adding CeeDee Lamb to a roster that already includes Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, Ezekiel Elliott and Jarwin. But they also have a lot of production to replace with Randall Cobb and Jason Witten gone, and that duo accounted for 118 catches for 1,357 yards and seven touchdowns on 166 targets. While Lamb should help fill most of that void, so will Jarwin if things stay the same for Dak Prescott and this passing attack. Jarwin might not have the highest ceiling with all those mouths to feed in Dallas, but he could turn out to be a low-end starter in all Fantasy leagues as he replaces Witten this year..
We know the Packers didn't do much to help their receiving corps this offseason, with Devin Funchess the only addition of note. Sternberger should be the starting tight end with Jimmy Graham gone, but he could also be the second-best receiving option for the Packers behind Davante Adams. Graham didn't do much in 2019 with 38 catches for 447 yards and three touchdowns on 60 targets, but hopefully Sternberger has a higher ceiling based on youth as he enters his second year in the NFL. Sternberger had no catches in his rookie campaign, but the Packers plan to give him the opportunity to succeed. Sternberger is one of the top No. 2 tight ends you should target on Draft Day in all leagues.
Thomas is now the main tight end for Carolina with Greg Olsen gone, and that's been a good thing for his Fantasy outlook over the past two seasons. In the last six games that Olsen has missed over the past two years due to injury, Thomas has scored at least 14 PPR points in four of them. Teddy Bridgewater should find Thomas to be a valuable weapon, even in a crowded receiving corps with D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, Robby Anderson and Christian McCaffrey. Thomas has the chance to be a No. 1 Fantasy tight end in all leagues, and he's worth drafting with a late-round pick.
Herndon only appeared in one game in 2019 because of a four-game suspension and a rib injury, but he's expected to return this season at 100 percent and play a prominent role. Ryan Griffin was the Jets' top tight end last year, and he scored five touchdowns in the nine games he played with Sam Darnold in 2019. And Herndon is a much better talent than Griffin. There could be a lot of competition for targets with Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims, Breshard Perriman and Le'Veon Bell. But Herndon could prove to be a valuable weapon for Darnold. You're not going to draft Herndon as a No. 1 Fantasy tight end, but he is someone to gamble on with a late-round pick as a No. 2 option with upside.
I don't like Ebron's ADP ahead of most of these guys listed here, but I understand the appeal now that he's with the Steelers. And an investment in Ebron is an investment in 2018. That year, Ebron was a star with the Colts, catching 66 passes for 750 yards and 13 touchdowns on 110 targets. And the Steelers had a healthy Ben Roethlisberger, who led all quarterbacks in pass attempts with 675. Now, the top tight ends for Pittsburgh that season -- Vance McDonald and Jesse James -- combined for 80 catches, 1,033 yards and six touchdowns on 111 targets. Ebron won't come close to the receptions or yards, but he should have the chance for around six touchdowns if healthy, even with McDonald still on the roster. And this offense could be electric again with Roethlisberger back. It wouldn't be a surprise if Ebron rebounds and plays at a high level again this year.
Olsen should be the No. 3 option in the passing game for Seattle behind Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, but there's an injury to monitor here. Will Dissly is coming back from last year's ruptured Achilles, and he could be a problem for Olsen's targets if healthy. Dissly has played just 10 games in two seasons, but he has six touchdowns over that span. Russell Wilson will use Olsen if he's the main tight end for the Seahawks, and he could be productive for Fantasy managers. But if Dissly returns and cuts into Olsen's targets, it could be a problem. And Olsen has missed 18 games over the past three seasons due to injury as well. There's a reason he's ranked in this range despite a good opportunity with Seattle.
If you want to take a flier on a young tight end who could have a breakout season, Smith might be your guy. Even though he's technically behind Kyle Rudolph on the depth chart, he could have a bigger receiving role than Rudolph. Or at least he should. And Smith could help rookie receiver Justin Jefferson fill the void left by Stefon Diggs, who had 63 catches for 1,130 yards and six touchdowns on 94 targets. It's doubtful we see Smith reach his ceiling if Rudolph is healthy and playing in a run-first offense in Minnesota. But for a minimal investment, it might be worth it to see what Smith does early in the season as a potential breakout option.
Howard was a Fantasy bust in 2019, and the addition of Rob Gronkowski won't help Howard improve this season. But I do like the reports of Howard staying on the field with Gronkowski, and that's a good sign for him staying involved. We know Tom Brady will spread the ball around to Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Gronkowski and Howard, and Howard could still have some value in deeper leagues. Gronkowski also has a hard time staying healthy in his career. Bruce Arians doesn't have a strong history of using tight ends, but Brady does. And that could help Howard still retain some Fantasy value in deeper formats this season.
So what Fantasy football sleepers should you snatch in your draft? And which WR1 candidate can you wait on until late? Visit SportsLine now to get cheat sheets from the model that was all over Derrick Henry's huge season, and find out.
