We only have two teams on a bye in Week 7: the Cowboys and the Bears. So you might think the running backs will look a little bit more normal. They may at most positions, but not at running back. At least not early in the week. That's because Jordan Mason and Travis Etienne left Week 6 early, and we still aren't expecting Rachaad White, Jonathan Taylor, Devin Singletary, Brian Robinson, Aaron Jones, or Rhamondre Stevenson back yet. One way we could get back is Nick Chubb, which is great because the Browns just lost Jerome Ford.
I won't project Chubb for his normal workload in Week 7, but I would expect a 50% rush share and a 10% receiving share, which will make him a starting running back as long as he's really 100% healthy. A matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, one of the best matchups in Fantasy, certainly doesn't hurt.
Here's what else will be changing for Week 7:
Welcome back, Evan Engram and David Njoku
Two veteran tight ends returned in Week 6 and had a big impact on their team's target share. Both Engram and Njoku led their teams in targets in their returns, with Engram catching all 10 of his targets and scoring 20 PPR Fantasy points. This led to the worst game of the season for Brian Thomas, who scored just 5.7 PPR Fantasy points on six targets. I'm still likely starting Thomas in Week 7 against New England, but he won't project as a top-20 option. Christian Kirk was downgraded as well and is a bigger concern because he is more reliant on volume. View him as a PPR flex.
In Cleveland, the situation is more bleak because the offense is so bad. Deshaun Watson is averaging 170 passing yards per game, so even a 33% target share wouldn't look all that great. This has all happened despite the fact that the Browns have faced the Jaguars, Raiders, Commanders, and Eagles. Njoku will project close to a top-12 option, but you should be actively avoiding everyone else in this pass game.
You're benching Trey Sermon even if Jonathan Taylor remains out
Sermon was ranked as a borderline RB2 this week despite the fact that he's had very little success as a rusher. In Week 6, he was even worse, turning 18 rush attempts into 29 yards. While the Titans do present a very difficult matchup, Sermon's teammate Tyler Goodson rushed eight times for 51 yards. Rushing efficiency can bounce all over the place, so I don't want to make too much of it. The bigger problem is that Goodson saw five targets while Sermon saw zero. If Sermon isn't even guaranteed passing downs work, neither he nor Goodson is more than a middling flex. Hopefully, Taylor feels better.
Josh Downs is the clear WR1 for the Colts
Downs led the team with a 25% target share in this game. He leads the team with a 27.5% target share since Week 4. In those three games, Downs has 24 catches and has scored at least 15.9 PPR Fantasy points in all three games. All of the Colts pass catchers may take a hit when the team goes back to Anthony Richardson, but Downs should be the best option of the bunch. View Downs as a number two wide receiver if Flacco is the starter and a WR3 if it's Richardson.
Tank Dell looks like a starter without Nico Collins
There was plenty of talk coming into the week about what Dell has looked like as a route runner this season and whether he was even a starter with Collins on IR. Dell answered those questions in Week 6 with 18.7 PPR Fantasy points and a team-high nine targets. I've boosted his target share up to 20% in Week 7, and there's room to grow from there as he saw a 29% target share this week. The other big winner in terms of volume was Dalton Schultz, his eight targets were the second-most. Schultz didn't do as well turning those targets into production, and that's been a problem all year. Schultz is a fine streamer, but it's hard to view him as anything more.
Patriots pass offense shows life
Let's get this out of the way: the Patriots lost by 20 points. Drake Maye was sacked four times and threw two picks. It certainly wasn't perfect. But Maye did throw for 75 more yards than Jacoby Brissett had in any game all season. Maye threw three touchdown passes in this game, and Brissett had two on the season through five weeks. In other words, progress. This is especially true, considering that Maye faced an excellent pass defense in his debut. The big winner was Demario Douglas, who led the team with a 29% target share. Douglas is a priority add and may even be a start next week against Jacksonville.
Sean Tucker has entered the conversation
Remember when Tampa Bay couldn't run the ball? That may have just been a Rachaad White problem. In Week 6 against the Saints, the team ran for 277 yards on 35 attempts. One hundred thirty-six of those yards came from Tucker, who also caught three passes for 56 yards. A chunk of Tucker's production came on the team's final drive, and Bucky Irving led the team in rush attempts before that, but we suddenly have a lot of uncertainty when it comes to running back touches in Tampa Bay. If White is out again in Week 7, I'm projecting Irving for a 45% rush share and 8% target share, while Tucker gets a 39% rush share and 9% target share. They'll both be ranked between RB20 and RB30. If White returns, we'll have a three-headed mess.
J.K. Dobbins is a workhorse
While the Buccaneers' situation may be more complicated, things are very simple in Los Angeles: J.K. Dobbins is the man. Dobbins had a career-high 27 touches in Week 6 and produced 102 yards and 18.2 PPR Fantasy points in a bad matchup against the Denver Broncos. Coming into this game, Dobbins had a 48% rush share for the year, but Gus Edwards is on Injured Reserve, and it appears Dobbins won't be sharing like he was early in the season. For Week 7, he'll project at a 58% share, and he'll likely rank as a top-12 running back. One other note: go add Kimani Vidal, he looks like he's next if Dobbins misses time.
Chase Brown has taken over
The youth movement at running back and tight end appears to be moving full speed ahead in Cincinnati. Brown out-touched Moss 12-to-seven in Week 6 and now has a 51.2% rush share and 9.7% target share over the Bengals' last two games. That's where his projection will sit in Week 7, which will likely make him a top-20 running back. You should still hold on to Moss as one of the top backups in Fantasy Football, but he looks like no more than a desperation flex until something changes in Cincinnati.
