While everyone wants to start the season 1-0, one of the most important parts of Week 1 is the information we gather and what we do with it. While there will be plenty of nonsense to sort through, the most actionable information we'll gather is how the most ambiguous running back rooms sort each other out. Specifically, I'm talking about the Lions, Dolphins, Bengals, Cowboys, Commanders, Chargers, and Titans.
That seems like a lot, right? Well, they aren't exactly created equally. In Detroit and Miami we're looking to see if Jahmyr Gibbs and De'Von Achane have their roles increased enough to be league-winning running backs without an injury. In Dallas, Cincinnati, and Los Angeles there's a decent chance no one is a starter even after we figure things out. I certainly don't want to start any of them in Week 1.
In Tennessee and Washington, I have more hope, but Tony Pollard is the only back I'm ranking as a Week 1 starter. I am optimistic that one of Brian Robinson or Austin Ekeler could join Pollard in the top 24, but I legitimately have no idea how many carries Ekeler is going to get. if it's 50% of the rush attempts, then Ekeler should see enough targets to make him a starter in full PPR. Of course, if either back gets hurt the other would leap into the top 24.
These seven teams all have at least two running backs I want to roster but several of them don't have any running backs I want to start in Week 1. Let's hope that Week 1 usage changes that. If I had my preference, we'd see Achane, Gibbs, Rico Dowdle, Chase Brown, Brian Robinson, J.K. Dobbins, and Tony Pollard as starters with more than 15 touches per game. Let's hope the coaches agree.
Now let's get to the rest of the Week 1 RB Preview:
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Week 1 RB Preview
Who's Out
The following players are not being projected to play Week 1 at this time. Here's what it means:
Jerome Ford is an RB2 until Chubb returns, which could be midseason.
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With Brooks on the PUP list, Chuba Hubbard will serve as the Panthers' starting running back.
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New addition Samaje Perine could serve as the Chiefs' third down back while Carson Steele could get some short-yardage reps. Isiah Pacheco is the only back in KC we want to start.
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Numbers to know
- 13.5 -- Jerome Ford averaged 13.5 PPR FPPG from Week 2-17 last year. He's a solid RB2 until Nick Chubb returns.
- 280 -- Derrick Henry led the NFL with 280 rush attempts last year. I would be surprised if he gets 90% of that in Baltimore.
- 5.6 -- Saquon Barkley averaged 5.6 yards per touch in the first two seasons of his career. He's averaged 4.7 over the past four seasons.
- 20.1 -- James Cook averaged 20.1 touches per game with Joe Brady calling plays.
- 32.4% -- Broncos running backs had a 32% target share last year, the highest mark in the league.
- 13.9 -- The Detroit Lions allowed 13.9 half-PPR FPPG to running backs last year, the lowest mark in the league. The Rams were the only other team below 15. They play each other in Week 1.
Matchups that matter
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Waiver Wire Targets
McLaughlin is still available in almost 40% of leagues, which makes him my clear top choice if you need a Week 1 fill-in. I project McLaughlin for eight to 12 touches on a weekly basis and last year he averaged 5.3 yards per touch. We still don't know exactly what Sean Payton's rotation is going to look like, but we do know his Broncos will throw the ball to their running back a ton. McLaughlin should see his fair share of those targets.
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No one wants to believe Hill will be involved despite the fact that the Ravens keep telling us he will be. I expect he's more involved in the games the Ravens are playing from behind and they are three-point underdogs in Week 1 against the Chiefs. There won't be many more weeks where they're underdogs. Hill is a deep league flex only, but he does have contingent upside if Henry misses time.
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After a preseason ankle injury scare, we are now projecting Tracy to play Week 1 and be the Giants' primary back on passing downs. This is a team that figures to be playing from behind a lot and Brian Flores' defense gave up five catches per game to running backs in 2023. While Tracy has a ways to go before he's a good start, we do think there's at least a small chance he takes touches away from Devin Singletary later in the year without an injury.
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There are a lot more stash candidates than potential starting candidates on the waiver wire in Week 1. As it should be. To make sure I hit them all, I'm breaking it down by roster rate. Bucky Irving, Zach Charbonnet, Jaylen Wright, and Marshawn Lloyd are all excellent bench stashes who are rostered in between 50 and 67 percent of leagues. Irving is my favorite. He looked very good in preseason action and Rachaad White has been an inefficient rusher.
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Stash candidates rostered in between 25 and 50 percent of leagues include Mason, Ray Davis, Braelon Allen, and Khalil Herbert. Mason is now the clear handcuff to Christian McCaffrey, who is 28 years old and has been nursing a calf injury this preseason. If McCaffrey misses a week, we would rank Mason as a top-12 back, like we would most backs in the San Francisco system.
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My favorite stashes rostered in fewer than 25% of leagues are Bigsby, Audric Estime, and Kimani Vidal. Bigsby struggled as a rookie, but he's had a good offseason and looks primed to play the RB2 role they envisioned for him when they drafted him. He has good pedigree and I expect Jacksonville to be an above-average offense. We'd view him as a top-20 back if Travis Etienne misses time.
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DFS Plays
Christian McCaffrey and Breece Hall are facing each other in primetime. Josh Jacobs, Jahmy Gibbs, and Kyren Williams are all off the main slate as well. That means Bijan Robinson has a three-point edge on any other back in my Week 1 FanDuel projections. I'll find value somewhere else and pay up for the biggest edge at any position in Week 1.
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Chuba Hubbard and Jerome Ford were the two biggest movers up when transitioning from full-season projections to Week 1 projections. They both project as top-15 backs for me this week, but Hubbard is $600 less than Ford, so he is my favorite cheap play at the position. He averaged 13.3 half PPR FPPG in his final seven games last year and played at least 64% of the offensive snaps in all of those games.
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Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 1 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You'll find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 1. Projected stats for all starting running backs are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
