While everyone wants to start the season 1-0, one of the most important parts of Week 1 is the information we gather and what we do with it. While there will be plenty of nonsense to sort through, the most actionable information we'll gather is how the most ambiguous running back rooms sort each other out. Specifically, I'm talking about the Lions, Dolphins, Bengals, Cowboys, Commanders, Chargers, and Titans.

That seems like a lot, right? Well, they aren't exactly created equally. In Detroit and Miami we're looking to see if Jahmyr Gibbs and De'Von Achane have their roles increased enough to be league-winning running backs without an injury. In Dallas, Cincinnati, and Los Angeles there's a decent chance no one is a starter even after we figure things out. I certainly don't want to start any of them in Week 1.

In Tennessee and Washington, I have more hope, but Tony Pollard is the only back I'm ranking as a Week 1 starter. I am optimistic that one of Brian Robinson or Austin Ekeler could join Pollard in the top 24, but I legitimately have no idea how many carries Ekeler is going to get. if it's 50% of the rush attempts, then Ekeler should see enough targets to make him a starter in full PPR. Of course, if either back gets hurt the other would leap into the top 24.

These seven teams all have at least two running backs I want to roster but several of them don't have any running backs I want to start in Week 1. Let's hope that Week 1 usage changes that. If I had my preference, we'd see Achane, Gibbs, Rico Dowdle, Chase Brown, Brian Robinson, J.K. Dobbins, and Tony Pollard as starters with more than 15 touches per game. Let's hope the coaches agree.

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Now let's get to the rest of the Week 1 RB Preview:

Week 1 RB Preview

Who's Out
Numbers to Know
Matchups That Matter
Waiver Wire Targets
DFS Plays
Projections
RB Preview
Who's Out

The following players are not being projected to play Week 1 at this time. Here's what it means:

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Nick Chubb RB
CLE Cleveland • #24
Age: 28 • Experience: 7 yrs.
Jerome Ford is an RB2 until Chubb returns, which could be midseason.
Jonathon Brooks RB
CAR Carolina • #24
Age: 21 • Experience: Rookie
With Brooks on the PUP list, Chuba Hubbard will serve as the Panthers' starting running back.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB
KC Kansas City • #25
Age: 25 • Experience: 5 yrs.
New addition Samaje Perine could serve as the Chiefs' third down back while Carson Steele could get some short-yardage reps. Isiah Pacheco is the only back in KC we want to start.
RB Preview
Numbers to know
  • 13.5 -- Jerome Ford averaged 13.5 PPR FPPG from Week 2-17 last year. He's a solid RB2 until Nick Chubb returns.
  • 280 -- Derrick Henry led the NFL with 280 rush attempts last year. I would be surprised if he gets 90% of that in Baltimore.
  • 5.6 -- Saquon Barkley averaged 5.6 yards per touch in the first two seasons of his career. He's averaged 4.7 over the past four seasons.
  • 20.1 -- James Cook averaged 20.1 touches per game with Joe Brady calling plays.
  • 32.4% -- Broncos running backs had a 32% target share last year, the highest mark in the league.
  • 13.9 -- The Detroit Lions allowed 13.9 half-PPR FPPG to running backs last year, the lowest mark in the league. The Rams were the only other team below 15. They play each other in Week 1.
RB Preview
Matchups that matter
Matchups that Matter
Projections powered by Sportsline
David Montgomery RB
DET Detroit • #5
Age: 27 • Experience: 6 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

vs LAR DET -3.5 O/U 51

OPP VS RB

18th

PROJ PTS

12.1

RB RNK

23rd

2023 Stats

RUYDS

1015

REC

16

REYDS

117

TD

13

FPTS/G

14.8
James Conner RB
ARI Arizona • #6
Age: 29 • Experience: 8 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ BUF BUF -6 O/U 48

OPP VS RB

5th

PROJ PTS

12.5

RB RNK

21st

2023 Stats

RUYDS

1040

REC

27

REYDS

165

TD

9

FPTS/G

15.5
Brian Robinson Jr. RB
WAS Washington • #8
Age: 25 • Experience: 3 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ TB TB -3 O/U 43.5

OPP VS RB

17th

PROJ PTS

9.8

RB RNK

30th

2023 Stats

RUYDS

733

REC

36

REYDS

368

TD

9

FPTS/G

13.2
Ezekiel Elliott RB
DAL Dallas • #15
Age: 29 • Experience: 9 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ CLE CLE -2.5 O/U 41.5

OPP VS RB

19th

PROJ PTS

6.8

RB RNK

39th

2023 Stats

RUYDS

642

REC

51

REYDS

313

TD

5

FPTS/G

10.3
RB Preview
Waiver Wire Targets
Week 1 Adds (RB Preview)
Jaleel McLaughlin RB
DEN Denver • #38
Age: 24 • Experience: 2 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ SEA SEA -6 O/U 42

OPP VS RB

3rd

RB RNK

41st

ROSTERED

62%

2023 Stats

RUYDS

410

REC

31

REYDS

160

TD

3

FPTS/G

6.3
McLaughlin is still available in almost 40% of leagues, which makes him my clear top choice if you need a Week 1 fill-in. I project McLaughlin for eight to 12 touches on a weekly basis and last year he averaged 5.3 yards per touch. We still don't know exactly what Sean Payton's rotation is going to look like, but we do know his Broncos will throw the ball to their running back a ton. McLaughlin should see his fair share of those targets.
Justice Hill RB
BAL Baltimore • #43
Age: 26 • Experience: 6 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ KC KC -3 O/U 46

OPP VS RB

15th

RB RNK

NR

ROSTERED

18%

2023 Stats

RUYDS

387

REC

28

REYDS

206

TD

4

FPTS/G

6.8
No one wants to believe Hill will be involved despite the fact that the Ravens keep telling us he will be. I expect he's more involved in the games the Ravens are playing from behind and they are three-point underdogs in Week 1 against the Chiefs. There won't be many more weeks where they're underdogs. Hill is a deep league flex only, but he does have contingent upside if Henry misses time.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB
NYG N.Y. Giants • #29
Age: 24 • Experience: Rookie

Weekly Breakdown

vs MIN MIN -1.5 O/U 41.5

OPP VS RB

18th

RB RNK

46th

ROSTERED

37%

2023 Stats

RUYDS

0

REC

0

REYDS

0

TD

0

FPTS/G

0
After a preseason ankle injury scare, we are now projecting Tracy to play Week 1 and be the Giants' primary back on passing downs. This is a team that figures to be playing from behind a lot and Brian Flores' defense gave up five catches per game to running backs in 2023. While Tracy has a ways to go before he's a good start, we do think there's at least a small chance he takes touches away from Devin Singletary later in the year without an injury.
Stashes (RB Preview)
Bucky Irving RB
TB Tampa Bay • #7
Age: 22 • Experience: Rookie

Weekly Breakdown

vs WAS TB -3 O/U 43.5

OPP VS RB

12th

RB RNK

45th

ROSTERED

50%
There are a lot more stash candidates than potential starting candidates on the waiver wire in Week 1. As it should be. To make sure I hit them all, I'm breaking it down by roster rate. Bucky Irving, Zach Charbonnet, Jaylen Wright, and Marshawn Lloyd are all excellent bench stashes who are rostered in between 50 and 67 percent of leagues. Irving is my favorite. He looked very good in preseason action and Rachaad White has been an inefficient rusher.
Jordan Mason RB
SF San Francisco • #24
Age: 25 • Experience: 3 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

vs NYJ SF -3.5 O/U 42.5

OPP VS RB

16th

RB RNK

NR

ROSTERED

48%

2023 Stats

RUYDS

206

REC

3

REYDS

31

TD

3

FPTS/G

2.6
Stash candidates rostered in between 25 and 50 percent of leagues include Mason, Ray Davis, Braelon Allen, and Khalil Herbert. Mason is now the clear handcuff to Christian McCaffrey, who is 28 years old and has been nursing a calf injury this preseason. If McCaffrey misses a week, we would rank Mason as a top-12 back, like we would most backs in the San Francisco system.
Tank Bigsby RB
JAC Jacksonville • #4
Age: 22 • Experience: 2 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ MIA MIA -3 O/U 49.5

OPP VS RB

3rd

RB RNK

NR

ROSTERED

21%

2023 Stats

RUYDS

132

REC

1

REYDS

6

TD

2

FPTS/G

1.4
My favorite stashes rostered in fewer than 25% of leagues are Bigsby, Audric Estime, and Kimani Vidal. Bigsby struggled as a rookie, but he's had a good offseason and looks primed to play the RB2 role they envisioned for him when they drafted him. He has good pedigree and I expect Jacksonville to be an above-average offense. We'd view him as a top-20 back if Travis Etienne misses time.
RB Preview
DFS Plays
Top DFS Play
Projections powered by Sportsline
Bijan Robinson RB
ATL Atlanta • #7
Age: 22 • Experience: 2 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

vs PIT ATL -3 O/U 42

OPP VS RB

12th

PROJ PTS

18.2

RB RNK

2nd

2023 Stats

RUYDS

976

REC

58

REYDS

487

TD

8

FPTS/G

14.5
Christian McCaffrey and Breece Hall are facing each other in primetime. Josh Jacobs, Jahmy Gibbs, and Kyren Williams are all off the main slate as well. That means Bijan Robinson has a three-point edge on any other back in my Week 1 FanDuel projections. I'll find value somewhere else and pay up for the biggest edge at any position in Week 1.
Contrarian DFS Play
Projections powered by Sportsline
Chuba Hubbard RB
CAR Carolina • #30
Age: 25 • Experience: 4 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ NO NO -4 O/U 41.5

OPP VS RB

22nd

PROJ PTS

8.6

RB RNK

22nd

2023 Stats

RUYDS

902

REC

39

REYDS

233

TD

5

FPTS/G

10.7
Chuba Hubbard and Jerome Ford were the two biggest movers up when transitioning from full-season projections to Week 1 projections. They both project as top-15 backs for me this week, but Hubbard is $600 less than Ford, so he is my favorite cheap play at the position. He averaged 13.3 half PPR FPPG in his final seven games last year and played at least 64% of the offensive snaps in all of those games.
RB Preview
Heath's Projections

My full set of Week 1 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You'll find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 1. Projected stats for all starting running backs are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.