It's the start of the Fantasy playoffs, and this is time of year where you have to trust your players. You no longer should focus on starting guys you drafted with high picks just because you feel it's necessary. If a player stinks, bench them for someone who will help you win.
There's no better evidence of that than at quarterback. Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers and Ryan Tannehill have been terrible of late, and you should bench them in favor of Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brian Hoyer. It might seem strange in your lineup, but you will definitely like the result.
At running back, we've been surviving with backups, and your playoff rosters are likely littered with guys like David Johnson, Thomas Rawls and Shaun Draughn. There's a good chance all three could be better than Todd Gurley this week, and they should definitely be better than DeMarco Murray and even Latavius Murray.
If you haven't done so already, it's time to buy in to Doug Baldwin, John Brown and potentially DeVante Parker. Those guys should do better than Randall Cobb, Amari Cooper and even Jeremy Maclin this week.
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Tight end is a mess with injuries to Rob Gronkowski (knee) and Jimmy Graham (knee), but Tyler Eifert (neck) could return this week after sitting out in Week 13. Still, you should look to start someone like Austin Seferian-Jenkins this week over Jordan Reed and Gary Barnidge given their matchups.
Your plan is simple - win and move on to the next round. It doesn't have to be pretty, and you just need one more point than your opponent. And hopefully we'll help you get there, so good luck this week.
Start of the Week: Blake Bortles, QB, Jaguars
Blake Bortles
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NO • QB • #9
vs. IND
Projections
PROJECTION19.2
Speaking of trust, it's surprising more of you haven't bought into using Blake Bortles this season. He's been better more times than not, and he's coming off his best game of the year in Week 13 at Tennessee. We expect him to play well again in this matchup with the Colts at home.
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Bortles should get Allen Hurns (concussion) back this week, and Allen Robinson has been unstoppable. Julius Thomas is also playing well, and they have helped Bortles score at least 20 Fantasy points in seven games this season, including Week 4 at Indianapolis. He had 26 Fantasy points against San Diego in Week 12 and was a monster last week against the Titans with 42 points.
The Colts allow the eighth-most Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks with an average of 21.7 points per game, and seven quarterbacks have scored at least 20 points against Indianapolis this season. The Colts have also allowed multiple passing touchdowns in each of their past five road games, including seven in their past two outings against Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger.
You might not feel confident starting Bortles in the Fantasy playoffs, but he definitely has the talent to help you win a championship this season.
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I'm starting Bortles over: Matthew Stafford (at STL), Drew Brees (at TB), Philip Rivers (at KC), Derek Carr (at DEN) and Matt Ryan (at CAR)
Quarterback
Start 'Em
Tyrod Taylor
NYJ • QB • #2
at PHI
Projections
PROJECTION18.9
There's a lot to like about Taylor this week. He's been playing well of late with 31 Fantasy points at Kansas City in Week 12 and 34 points against Houston last week. He's also scored at least 23 Fantasy points in three of five road games this season. The Eagles have been terrible on defense in their past five games, and every opposing quarterback has scored at least 20 Fantasy points over that span, with four scoring at least 28 points. Philadelphia allowed 19 total touchdowns to those past five quarterbacks with only three interceptions, and Taylor should continue to lean on Sammy Watkins, who has three touchdowns in his past two games and has become an obvious starter in all leagues. This should be another big week for Taylor.
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Ryan Fitzpatrick
WAS • QB • #14
vs. TEN
Projections
PROJECTION21.7
Let's hope Fitzpatrick dominates the Titans this week like he did the last time he faced them, which was Week 13 last year when he was starting for the Texans. He had 358 passing yards and six touchdowns in that game and finished with 51 Fantasy points. That's obviously a stretch to expect that kind of performance, but Fitzpatrick has been an excellent Fantasy starter of late and really all season. He's scored at least 29 Fantasy points in consecutive games against Miami and the Giants, and he has at least 22 points in five of the past seven games he's been able to finish. The Titans are third in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks with an average of 23 points per game, and five of the past six quarterbacks have scored at least 21 points against them. We expect Fitzpatrick to make it six out of seven.
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Brian Hoyer
LV • QB • #7
vs. NE
Projections
PROJECTION16.4
It might seem risky to trust Hoyer in the Fantasy playoffs, but he's been a solid performer most of the season when he's been forced to throw and chase points. And that should be the case this week at home against the Patriots. He had a five-game stretch earlier this season where he scored at least 21 Fantasy points, and he scored 28 points in Week 13 at Buffalo. The Patriots have allowed three of five opposing quarterbacks on the road to score at least 25 Fantasy points, and Hoyer is getting solid contributions from other receivers aside from just DeAndre Hopkins, including Cecil Shorts and Ryan Griffin. Hoyer also is a former backup to Tom Brady, and coach Bill O'Brien used to be the offensive coordinator in New England. Both would love nothing more than pull off an upset this week and keep Houston's playoff chances alive.
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Russell Wilson
PIT • QB • #3
at BAL
Projections
PROJECTION20.9
Wilson is on fire coming into this game, and there's nothing to suggest he'll slow down against the Ravens. He's scored at least 31 Fantasy points in a standard league in three games in a row, and he has 12 total touchdowns to just 20 incompletions over that span. By comparison, Ryan has five touchdowns and 45 incompletions in his past three outings. Baltimore has done a better job in containing opposing quarterbacks of late, but six quarterbacks have scored at least 23 Fantasy points against the Ravens this season. You have to ride the hot hand here with Wilson, who is delivering for Fantasy owners at the right time after a disappointing start to the season. You should also expect a strong performance from Baldwin and Tyler Lockett this week, and both are worth starting in this matchup.
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Jameis Winston
CLE • QB • #5
vs. NO
Projections
PROJECTION22.9
The Buccaneers have a chance to make a playoff push, and Winston is a big reason why. He's been great this season, and he should take advantage of this juicy matchup. The Saints have allowed 10 quarterbacks to score at least 20 Fantasy points this season, including Winston in Week 2 when he passed for 207 yards and one touchdown and ran for 23 yards and a score. His weapons are finally healthy now that Seferian-Jenkins is back, and it will be hard for New Orleans to contain him, Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson. Winston just had 20 Fantasy points against Atlanta in Week 13, and the last time he had a matchup this good was Week 11 at Philadelphia when he scored 39 Fantasy points. He has a very high ceiling this week.
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Sleepers
Blaine Gabbert (at CLE): Five QBs in a row have multiple TDs vs. CLE.
Eli Manning (at MIA): He has 10 TDs in his last three road games.
Matt Hasselbeck (at JAC): He's a good start in 2-QB leagues at JAC.
Sit 'Em
Philip Rivers
IND • QB • #17
at KC
Projections
PROJECTION15.7
It's not fair to blame Rivers for his complete failures of late with his offensive line falling apart all season and now his receiving corps looking like a disaster. Steve Johnson (groin) and Dontrelle Inman (neck) could be out, and Keenan Allen (kidney) isn't coming back this season. The Chiefs are fantastic against tight ends, so Antonio Gates and Ladarius Green could struggle, and Rivers should be in for another long day. He's been held to 17 Fantasy points or less in three of the past four games, including a season-low five points against the Chiefs in Week 11. Kansas City also has allowed just one quarterback to score more than 17 Fantasy points in the past seven games, which was Taylor in Week 12. There appears to be very little upside for Rivers this week, and he's even a risky option in two-quarterback leagues.
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Matt Ryan
IND • QB • #2
at CAR
Projections
PROJECTION14.8
Ryan doesn't have the same excuses like Rivers with the lack of talent around him - he's just playing bad. He could just be a poor fit for Kyle Shanahan's offense, but his production has been awful for most of the season, especially of late. He has one game with more than 18 Fantasy points in his past four outings, and he's passed for six touchdowns and six interceptions over that span. Asking him to go outdoors against this Carolina defense and play well will be a tall task since the Panthers have only allowed three quarterbacks to score at least 20 Fantasy points this season, including one at home, which was Aaron Rodgers in Week 9. Ryan also has scored 20 Fantasy points outdoors just once this year, which was Week 2 at the Giants. Like Rivers, it's tough to trust Ryan even in two-quarterback leagues.
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Derek Carr
NO • QB • #4
at DEN
Projections
PROJECTION15.5
Carr has been great for Fantasy owners this season with seven games of at least 20 Fantasy points, but he's had some duds as well, including 11 points against the Broncos in Week 5. He's also struggled of late with six Fantasy points at Detroit in Week 11 and 17 points against Kansas City last week. We expect him to score fewer than 20 Fantasy points again this week. The Broncos have allowed just two quarterbacks to score more than 17 Fantasy points this year, which were Andrew Luck in Week 9 and Tom Brady in Week 12. Brady is the only quarterback with multiple touchdowns in Denver, and the Broncos, Falcons, Bengals and Panthers are the only defenses not allowing more passing touchdowns than interceptions. Carr's receivers should struggle this week with Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, and he's a risky starting quarterback in the majority of leagues.
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Alex Smith
WAS • QB • #11
vs. SD
Projections
PROJECTION21.9
It wouldn't be a surprise if Smith played well this week. The Chargers are terrible on defense, and five of the past seven opposing quarterbacks have scored at least 21 Fantasy points. Smith is also coming off two excellent games against Buffalo and Oakland where he scored at least 25 Fantasy points. In fact, Smith's last bad game from a statistical standpoint was Week 11 at San Diego when he scored just 13 Fantasy points, and that was because the Chiefs ran for 153 yards and scored three rushing touchdowns, and Kansas City sat on a lead in the fourth quarter for a 33-3 victory. If you're rooting for Smith this week then you need San Diego's offense to score, which would force him to chase points. That's what happened the past two games when Smith threw two touchdowns with the Chiefs trailing the Bills 16-7 in Week 12, and he threw two more with the Chiefs behind the Raiders 20-14 last week. We expect the Chiefs to dominate this game, so Smith will likely post minimal Fantasy production. He should only be started in two-quarterback leagues.
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Drew Brees
QB
at TB
Projections
PROJECTION18.7
Brees is more of a bust alert than a must-sit quarterback this week because the matchup with Tampa Bay is favorable, and Brees could post quality stats. But for that to happen he would have to play well on the road, which hasn't happened in a while. He's been held under 20 Fantasy points in all five road games this year, and the last time he scored at least 20 points on the road was Week 15 last year. He also has a shaky track record at Tampa Bay with three games with just one touchdown and three with multiple interceptions going back to 2010. Over that span, Brees has 10 touchdowns and 10 interceptions despite averaging 325 passing yards a game. The Buccaneers have allowed five quarterbacks to score at least 20 Fantasy points against them this season, but just one has scored more than 17 points in the past five outings, including matchups with Eli Manning and Ryan. And Brees was held to 14 Fantasy points at home against Tampa Bay in Week 2, but that was the game he hurt his shoulder. It's risky to sit Brees this week, but there's enough of a sample size of his performance on the road that you should be concerned.
Marcus Mariota
WAS • QB • #18
at NYJ
Projections
PROJECTION15
Mariota was exceptional in Week 13 against the Jaguars with 268 passing yards, three touchdowns and one interception and 112 rushing yards and a touchdown for a season-high 41 Fantasy points. He's now scored at least 24 Fantasy points in three of his past five games, including two games with at least 40 points over that span. He's a must-start option in two-quarterback leagues, but I'd use caution about starting him in standard leagues, especially if Darrelle Revis (concussion) is active. The teams he's had success against were terrible defensively (New Orleans, Oakland and Jacksonville), but the Jets will be a much tougher opponent. The Jets have also allowed just four quarterbacks to score at least 20 Fantasy points this year, and only Bortles and Tannehill did it in New York. Mariota should be good this week, but he might not be great, especially compared to his performance in Week 13.
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Running back
Start 'Em
David Johnson
NO • RB • #31
vs. MIN
Projections
PROJECTION18.2
I wouldn't be surprised if Johnson was the No. 1 running back this week based on his expected workload and his matchup with the injury-riddled Vikings on Thursday night. Minnesota will be without nose tackle Linval Joseph (foot), linebacker Anthony Barr (groin) and safety Harrison Smith (hamstring). All three were banged up against Seattle in Week 13, and Rawls had 19 carries for 101 yards and a touchdown and three catches for 22 yards with a lost fumble. The Vikings have actually struggled in the past three games against Eddie Lacy in Week 11, Tevin Coleman in Week 12 and then Rawls all rushing for at least 100 yards. Johnson was great last week at St. Louis in his first start for Chris Johnson (leg) and Andre Ellington (toe) with 22 carries for 99 yards and two catches for 21 yards and a touchdown for 17 Fantasy points. He should easily top double digits in points this week.
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Shaun Draughn (at CLE)
Projection: 11.6 Fantasy points
Draughn played for the Browns in 2014, so this could be a revenge game of sorts. Most likely, he will just try and play well to earn a job heading into next season. You have to be impressed with Draughn, who has been on eight different teams since 2011. He's stepped up for the injury-riddled 49ers and done a nice job in place of Carlos Hyde (foot) for the past four games. The stats aren't overwhelming - he hasn't rushed for 60 yards in a game yet and has just one touchdown - but he's a safe starter with at least seven Fantasy points in a standard league in each outing, and he scored last week at Chicago to finish with 14 points. He's a must-start option in PPR leagues with at least five catches in three of the past four games and 22 catches over that span, and the matchup is good against the Browns, who have allowed a running back to score double digits in Fantasy points in 10 of 12 games this year, including two in a row.
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Lamar Miller
NO • RB • #36
vs. NYG
Projections
PROJECTION12.2
I was skeptical about Miller last week against Baltimore even with the narrative of Zac Taylor taking over for Bill Lazor as the interim offensive coordinator and the promise to run the ball more. But the Dolphins delivered on their word, and Miller had 20 carries for 113 yards and one catch for 5 yards with a lost fumble. The 20 carries were his most since Week 13 in 2013, and we hope this is a sign of things to come. This is now eight of nine times going back to last year where Miller has scored at least nine Fantasy points when he's had at least 15 carries. He should get another heavy workload this week, and the Giants have allowed a running back to score double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league in 10 of 12 games this season. Miller has been a frustrating running back this season with only three games with double digits in Fantasy points, but he could be a standout Fantasy option to close the year if the Dolphins commit to him. After this week, Miller faces the Chargers and Colts, and those are great matchups for him to exploit.
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T.J. Yeldon
BUF • RB • #22
vs. IND
Projections
PROJECTION11.8
I wasn't high enough on Yeldon last week because of my frustration with him from the week before. He was the Start of the Week in Week 12 against the Chargers, and he scored only seven Fantasy points. But coach Gus Bradley said prior to Week 13 at Tennessee that he wanted to do a better job running the ball, and Yeldon was rewarded with 15 carries for 57 yards and a touchdown and four catches for 79 yards. He's done a nice job catching the ball of late with at least four catches in three of the past four games, and he should do well this week. Yeldon had 22 carries for 105 yards and two catches for 4 yards at Indianapolis in Week 4, and the Colts have allowed a running back to score double digits in Fantasy points 10 times this year, with 12 touchdowns to the position. Yeldon is a solid No. 2 running back in the majority of leagues, and he could easily finish in the Top 10 if he scores another touchdown.
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Eddie Lacy
SEA • RB • #27
vs. DAL
Projections
PROJECTION10
It's risky to trust Lacy, so check your lineup and make sure you feel comfortable starting him after he was benched last week for missing curfew. I just have a feeling he plays well at home against the Cowboys even though this is a tough matchup. Prior to getting benched, Lacy was starting to look like the guy we drafted in the first round with 22 carries for 100 yards against Minnesota in Week 11 and 17 carries for 105 yards and four catches for 34 yards and a touchdown against Chicago in Week 12. He could still share carries with James Starks and even John Crockett, who got five carries last week with Lacy in the doghouse, but coach Mike McCarthy praised Lacy following his punishment. The Cowboys haven't allowed a rushing touchdown since Week 9 or a running back to score double digits in Fantasy points in their past three games, including matchups with Miller and Jonathan Stewart. Still, I expect Lacy to play well if he's back in his usual role as the main running back for the Packers.
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Sleepers
Ryan Mathews (vs. BUF): He could be the best PHI RB this week.
Isaiah Crowell (vs. SF): SF has allowed a RB to score in every road game.
Ronnie Hillman (vs. OAK): He's a must-start RB if Anderson is out.
Spencer Ware (vs. SD): He has a good chance to score vs. SD.
Frank Gore (at JAC): He should be great if Paul Posluszny is out
Sit 'Em
DeMarco Murray
TEN • RB • #29
vs. BUF
Projections
PROJECTION9.1
Murray could be great this week if Chip Kelly decides he wants to feature him to try and show up the guy he replaced in LeSean McCoy on the other side of the field, or Murray might not play with Mathews expected back from his concussion. His role is completely up in the air, and you might be better off benching him in the majority of leagues. This saga started last week when Murray took a backseat to Darren Sproles at New England, and then there was a report Murray complained to owner Jeffrey Lurie about his role. Kelly said Murray didn't complain to Lurie, but this situation is a mess. To make matters worse, Murray has been terrible of late with a combined 11 Fantasy points in his past three games, and he's gone four games without a touchdown and two games without a catch. It's a great matchup against the Bills, who have allowed a running back to score double digits in Fantasy points in nine games in a row, so we hope Murray gets an extended workload. But since there's no guarantee that happens you might consider other options for your Fantasy team.
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Danny Woodhead
BAL • RB • #39
at KC
Projections
PROJECTION7.8
Woodhead has been terrible of late, and it's hard to trust any Chargers players right now, especially with a tough matchup against the Chiefs. He's combined for six Fantasy points in a standard league, and he hasn't had more than 47 total yards in any game over that span. One of those games was against Kansas City in Week 11 when he had six carries for 7 yards and one catch for 9 yards. Woodhead also has been bad on the road this season with an average of 5.0 Fantasy points a game in five games, and his best game away from San Diego was nine points at Cincinnati in Week 2. He could get more work after Melvin Gordon fumbled for the fifth time this season in Week 13, but that doesn't mean a better outing in this matchup. Woodhead is only worth using as a flex in PPR leagues.
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LeGarrette Blount
DET • RB • #29
at HOU
Projections
PROJECTION9
You know the risk in benching Blount because he's always a threat to score a touchdown, if not multiple scores. But he's been struggling of late, and the Patriots haven't had much success running the ball. They also haven't been inclined to use Blount at the goal line, and James White finally had a big game last week against the Eagles with 10 catches for 115 yards and a touchdown, which should earn him more playing time. Blount has combined for 12 Fantasy points in his past three games against Buffalo, Denver and Philadelphia, and he hasn't had more than 66 rushing yards in his past four outings. The Texans also haven't allowed a running back to score in the past five games, and only McCoy had double digits in Fantasy points against Houston when he had 112 rushing yards last week. We doubt Blount tops 100 rushing yards in this matchup, so be cautious if you start him this week.
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Latavius Murray
BUF • RB • #28
at DEN
Projections
PROJECTION10.1
It was great to see Murray get back to scoring double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league last week against Kansas City when he had 20 carries for 86 yards and a touchdown and four catches for 11 yards for 15 points. It was the first time he scored double digits in Fantasy points in his past five games, and the Raiders are clearly committed to him with at least 20 carries in consecutive weeks. But I was surprised Murray played well against the Chiefs with center Rodney Hudson (ankle) banged up. In the four games since Hudson got hurt in Week 9, Murray has scored eight Fantasy points or less in each outing. Hudson did not practice again Wednesday, so his status for this week's game at Denver is again in doubt. And it would be a tough matchup for Murray even if Hudson is active since he had 13 carries for 39 yards and three catches for 18 yards against the Broncos at home in Week 5. Denver has allowed just six running backs to score double digits in Fantasy points this season, so Murray still has flex appeal. But he's a low-end starter at best on the road given his recent track record if Hudson is again sidelined.
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C.J. Spiller
KC • RB
at TB
Projections
PROJECTION8.1
The Saints will likely use a committee backfield now that Mark Ingram (shoulder) is out for the season, which means Spiller and Tim Hightower should get plenty of work. It's hard to say how the touches will be divided, but the likely scenario is Hightower handing most rushing duties and Spiller playing on passing downs. It's worth adding one or both where available, depending on the size of your league, to see what happens, and the Saints do have a favorable matchup ahead with Jacksonville at home in Week 16. But neither running back is worth starting this week at Tampa Bay, and the Buccaneers haven't allowed a running back to score on the ground since Week 3. Four running backs have caught touchdowns against Tampa Bay, including players similar to Spiller like Shane Vereen and Sproles. But Spiller has been terrible all season, and even the expected increase in playing time and touches won't make him easier to trust. For now, unless you're stuck, add Spiller and potentially Hightower and just keep both on your bench.
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Javorius Allen
NYG • RB • #37
vs. SEA
Projections
PROJECTION10.8
I'm stuck starting Allen in one league this week, and I'm expecting a letdown performance, especially since he's been so good in place of the injured Justin Forsett (arm). It's a PPR league, and I like Allen's outlook better in that format, but he will definitely regress from his performance the past three games when he's scored 10, 13 and 22 Fantasy points in a standard league against St. Louis, Cleveland and Miami, respectively. The Seahawks are dominant against opposing running backs and just held Adrian Peterson to eight carries for 18 yards and four catches for 6 yards. Now, five running backs have scored double digits in Fantasy points against Seattle, and five running backs have at least five catches against the Seahawks, including Draughn (eight catches for 40 yards) and DeAngelo Williams (seven catches for 88 yards) in two of the past three games. That will help Allen, who has 21 catches in his past three games. He's still worth using as a No. 2 running back in PPR leagues, but he's just a flex option in standard formats. It would be a surprise to see him score a touchdown, and he should be around seven of eight Fantasy points at best in this matchup.
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Wide receiver
Start 'Em
Jarvis Landry
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NO • WR • #80
vs. NYG
Projections
PROJECTION10.2
DeVante Parker
PHI • WR • #1
vs. NYG
Projections
PROJECTION7.3
Landry wasn't happy with his lack of involvement in Week 13 against Baltimore, and neither were we. He had five targets and finished with just two catches for 5 yards. Coach Dan Campbell said he liked that Landry was upset, and there should be a heavy dose of targets coming his way Monday night against the Giants, especially in a showdown with former college teammate Odell Beckham. Parker is coming off two solid games with at least 12 Fantasy points in a standard league, and he has 15 targets over that span against the Jets and Ravens. Parker should be considered a high-end No. 3 Fantasy receiver this week, and the Giants have allowed seven touchdowns to receivers in the past five games.
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John Brown
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BUF • WR • #89
vs. MIN
Projections
PROJECTION9.6
Michael Floyd
BAL • WR • #13
vs. MIN
Projections
PROJECTION7.6
All three Cardinals receivers are worth starting this week with Brown, Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald. I would rank them in that order for standard leagues, but put Fitzgerald first in PPR formats. Brown is starting to heat up now that his hamstring woes appear mostly behind him. He's scored at least nine Fantasy points in three games in a row, and he has 11 catches for 212 yards on 15 targets in his past two outings against San Francisco and St. Louis. Floyd got back on track after his hamstring issue with seven catches for 104 yards on 12 targets against the Rams. He's now scored at least 10 Fantasy points in a standard league in five of his past six games. Minnesota is a mess defensively, but the Vikings still have good cornerbacks in Xavier Rhodes and Terence Newman. But the Vikings have allowed five receivers to score or gain 90 yards in the past three games, and this secondary will struggle to stop all three of Brown, Floyd and Fitzgerald, especially with Harrison Smith out. It should be a big game Thursday night for the Cardinals passing attack.
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Doug Baldwin
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SEA • WR • #89
at BAL
Projections
PROJECTION8.5
Tyler Lockett
SEA • WR • #16
at BAL
Projections
PROJECTION4.9
It might seem obvious to start Baldwin this week after his performance over the past four games, but Fantasy owners still seem somewhat reluctant since his start percentage as of Wednesday is just 66 percent on CBS Sports. I like him as a Top 15 Fantasy receiver this week, and I would start him over Julio Jones, Fitzgerald and Dez Bryant, to name a few of your typical standout options. Baldwin has at least 19 Fantasy points in a standard league in three of his past four games, with six touchdowns over that span. He's on fire right now, and Wilson is leaning on him with great success. Lockett has scored at least nine Fantasy points in two of his past three games, and he just had his best outing of the year in terms of targets (seven), catches (seven) and receiving yards (90). He should be able to build on that performance this week, especially since the Ravens struggle with big-play receivers. Baltimore also has allowed nine receivers to score double digits in Fantasy points in the past seven games, and the Ravens have allowed 19 touchdowns to opposing receivers this season. I'm excited for Baldwin and Lockett this week.
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Danny Amendola
HOU • WR • #86
at HOU
Projections
PROJECTION8.4
Amendola is one of the few reliable weapons for Brady right now, and he picked up where he left off prior to missing Week 12 with a knee injury. He had seven catches for 62 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets against the Eagles in Week 13, and this is now three games in a row with at least 11 targets and seven catches. He should continue to be a valuable commodity until Julian Edelman (foot) is back, and he is a must-start option in all leagues this week. The Texans have only allowed two receivers to score double digits in Fantasy points in their past five games, but Brady will be hard to stop, which means Amendola, White and Scott Chandler should be heavily involved. He's a high-end No. 2 receiver in standard leagues and a potential Top 10 option in PPR formats.
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Vincent Jackson
TB • WR • #83
vs. NO
Projections
PROJECTION8.3
Everyone knows to start Evans if you own him, and Seferian-Jenkins should also be in line for a big game this week against the Saints. But Jackson is also worth starting this week based on the matchup. New Orleans and Philadelphia are tied for the most touchdowns to opposing receivers with 20, and the Saints have allowed 17 receivers to score at least eight Fantasy points in a standard league, with nine scoring double digits in points. Last week, New Orleans allowed three Carolina receivers to combine for four touchdowns, and Jackson had three catches for 54 yards and a touchdown against the Saints in Week 2. He's scored at least seven Fantasy points in three games in a row, but Jackson should have the chance for a big game given the matchup. I would start him as at least a No. 3 Fantasy receiver in all formats this week.
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Sleepers
Marvin Jones (vs. PIT): He'll play a key role in this shootout with PIT.
Brian Hartline (vs. SF): He has at least six catches in three straight games.
Cecil Shorts (vs. NE): He has at least nine Fantasy points in three straight.
Anquan Boldin (at CLE): Eight receivers have scored vs. CLE since Week 8.
Allen Hurns (vs. IND): He's back, and No. 2 receivers own the Colts.
Sit 'Em
Amari Cooper
BUF • WR • #2
at DEN
Projections
PROJECTION7.3
Cooper and Crabtree are worth sitting this week with the matchup against the Broncos. We've already seen one game with Denver where Cooper was held to four catches for 47 yards on four targets, and Crabtree had four catches for 54 yards on five targets. The Broncos have allowed just three receivers to score double digits in Fantasy points, and Mike Wallace of all players is the only one to score a touchdown, which happened in Week 4. Cooper has the potential to be an elite Fantasy option, but he's also a rookie and has scored seven points or less in three of his past four games. This matchup should be tough for him and Crabtree, and they should be considered No. 3 receivers at best this week.
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Brandon LaFell
LV • WR • #19
at HOU
Projections
PROJECTION8.3
This will probably be the week LaFell goes off for a big game based on this wacky NFL season, but it's too hard to trust him now after he failed to deliver in a great matchup against the Eagles in Week 13. He's now gone three games in a row with at least eight targets, which shows Brady continues to lean on him, but he's scored six Fantasy points or less in a standard league in each outing, including just two points against Philadelphia on four catches for 27 yards. He has yet to score a touchdown this year, and the Texans have only allowed three touchdowns to opposing receivers in their past five games. I have plenty of faith in Amendola to come through in this matchup, but I have little hope for LaFell. There's no way you should feel comfortable starting him in the majority of leagues for the start of the Fantasy playoffs.
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Kamar Aiken
PHI • WR • #81
vs. SEA
Projections
PROJECTION6.6
Aiken has been a quality Fantasy option over the past month, and he's helped the Ravens replace the injured Steve Smith (Achilles) as a reliable receiver. He's scored at least seven Fantasy points in a standard league in three of his past four games, with two touchdowns over that span. And in PPR leagues, Aiken has 14 points in three of his past four outings, but it will be hard to trust him this week based on the matchup. Seattle has allowed just four touchdowns to opposing receivers and only five have scored double digits in Fantasy points. We'll see if Richard Sherman follows Aiken around the field, which would make sense since he's the only consistent receiver left for Baltimore. But even if Aiken avoids Sherman he will likely have minimal production and should not be started as anything more than a low-end No. 3 receiver in the majority of leagues.
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James Jones
LAC • WR • #89
vs. DAL
Projections
PROJECTION9.7
Jones is the type of Hail Mary play that could make or break your Fantasy team this week if you elect to start him. He's one of the most touchdown dependent players, and you have a good sample size of what his production is when he fails to score. In his past six games, he has one outing with more than five Fantasy points, which was Week 11 at Minnesota. That's the only time he scored a touchdown over that span, and he's combined for one Fantasy point the past two weeks against Chicago and Detroit. The Cowboys have allowed just three touchdowns to opposing receivers in their past seven games, so keep that in mind when looking at Randall Cobb and Davante Adams. Cobb is worth starting as at least a No. 3 Fantasy receiver, but you should bench Jones and Adams in most formats this week.
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Jeremy Maclin
BAL • WR • #18
vs. KC
Projections
PROJECTION10.9
Maclin, much like his quarterback, could suffer this week from game flow, and he's more of a bust alert than a must-sit player. Putting him here has nothing to do with the matchup or talent, but it could just be a failure to perform given the expectations of what he's done the past two weeks when he's scored at least 19 Fantasy points in a standard league against Buffalo and Oakland. We've seen it all year from Maclin that when the Chiefs are chasing points he comes up big. He has five games this season with double digits in targets, and he's scored at least 14 Fantasy points in a standard league in four of those outings. In the six games where Maclin has nine targets or less, he's scored one touchdown and has failed to score double digits in Fantasy points, including Week 11 at San Diego when he had three catches for 29 yards on six targets. If the Chiefs need to throw in this game then Maclin could have a huge outing, so keep that in mind. But I'm expecting Maclin to get single digits in targets this week, which should mean single digits in Fantasy points. He should only be used as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver in most leagues.
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Dez Bryant
BAL • WR • #88
at GB
Projections
PROJECTION7.2
I hope the plan for the Cowboys is to tell Matt Cassel to just throw Bryant the ball as often as possible. I don't care if it's a triple team in a snow storm -- just give Bryant a chance to make plays. He's got single digits in targets in five of the six games he's played since coming back from his foot injury in Week 8, and last week was terrible against Washington with three catches for 62 yards on seven targets. There's no way Bryant should be used as a decoy, but that's the way it looks based on his usage. Cassel might be afraid of throwing interceptions, but Bryant won't be a reliable Fantasy option if this continues. The Packers have allowed eight touchdowns to opposing receivers and six have scored double digits in Fantasy points. We'd love to see Bryant have a dominant game this week, but he's better off as just a No. 3 Fantasy receiver in the majority of leagues instead of a must-start option given his lack of targets over the past few weeks.
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Tight end
Start 'Em
Scott Chandler
NE • TE • #88
at HOU
Projections
PROJECTION7.8
Chandler did exactly what he was supposed to do last week against the Eagles with four catches for 61 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. He filled in for Gronkowski, who averages just over eight targets a game, and we would expect at least seven targets again this week. The Texans are tough against tight ends with only four touchdowns allowed to the position, including Charles Clay in Week 13. There have been seven tight ends to get at least six targets against Houston and four have scored at least seven Fantasy points in a standard league. Chandler has a good chance to score at least seven Fantasy points based on his role in this offense with Brady. We're still confident in Chandler even in a tough matchup.
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Austin Seferian-Jenkins
NE • TE • #88
vs. NO
Projections
PROJECTION7.2
It feels like Seferian-Jenkins owes us one. He was great in Week 1 against the Titans with five catches for 110 yards and two touchdowns, and then he hurt his shoulder in Week 2 at New Orleans. Every week it seemed like he was coming back, but he sat out until Week 13 against Atlanta, and he was rusty in his return with just three catches for 31 yards on six targets. And now he's due for a big game, or so we hope. But the matchup suggests Seferian-Jenkins should play well. The Saints have allowed six touchdowns to tight ends in the past four games, and five tight ends have scored at least nine Fantasy points in a standard league over that span. This could be a solid two-game stretch for Seferian-Jenkins since he plays at St. Louis in Week 15, and the Rams have struggled with tight ends as well. First, however, he has to deliver against the Saints, and we're expecting him to come through.
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Julius Thomas
MIA • TE • #89
vs. IND
Projections
PROJECTION7
I was skeptical of Thomas this season with the Jaguars, and he struggled with injuries are poor play for the first 10 weeks of the year. But he's been hot the past three games, and he's helping Fantasy owners at the right time. He's scored in each of his past three games, and hopefully he can make it four in a row against the Colts. He's only reached double digits in Fantasy points once over that span, but any tight end scoring seven points these days is basically a Top 10 option. Indianapolis has allowed a tight end to score in three of the past four games, with Greg Olsen, Owen Daniels and Cameron Brate all scoring double digits in Fantasy points. And when the Jaguars played the Colts in Week 4 when Thomas was out, Marcedes Lewis and Clay Harbor combined for nine catches for 71 yards on 14 targets. Thomas has two games this season with double digits in targets, and he scored at least 13 Fantasy points in both outings.
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Sleepers
Will Tye (at MIA): He has at least 70 yards in each of his past two games.
Coby Fleener (at JAC): JAC is No. 2 in Fantasy points allowed vs. TEs.
Zach Miller (vs. WAS): He gets a huge boost with Martellus Bennett out.
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Sit 'Em
Antonio Gates
LAC • TE • #85
at KC
Projections
PROJECTION7.1
Eric Berry's return from last year's cancer diagnosis has been amazing to watch, and he's been a key cog in the Chiefs defense, especially in defending tight ends. Kansas City allows the fewest Fantasy points to opposing tight ends, and none have scored double digits in Fantasy points against the Chiefs despite three touchdowns allowed. Gates faced Kansas City in Week 11 and was held to one catch for 6 yards on five targets. With San Diego being limited at receiver due to injury, the Chiefs will likely key in on stopping Gates, with Berry leading the way. It's hard to sit him in the majority of leagues, but this should be another tough outing for him at Kansas City.
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Charles Clay
ARI • TE • #85
at PHI
Projections
PROJECTION5.6
Clay was able to find the end zone in Week 13 against the Texans on a blown coverage by the defense, and he finished with four catches for 66 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. Don't get fooled by the stat line because the touchdown went for 40 yards, so he otherwise would have caught three passes for 26 yards. That's closer to his production in his past seven games prior to facing Houston, and he combined for 17 Fantasy points in a standard league over that span. The Eagles have allowed a tight end to score in two of the past three games with Brate in Week 11 and Chandler last week, but those are the only two tight ends to score double digits in Fantasy points against Philadelphia. Clay is only worth a look in the deepest of leagues, and you should be able to find a better starting option off waivers like Tamme or Fleener.
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Kyle Rudolph
TB • TE • #8
at ARI
Projections
PROJECTION4.3
Rudolph gave us a brief glimmer of hope prior to Week 13 against Seattle when he had 18 targets in consecutive games against Green Bay and Atlanta for 13 catches, 158 yards and a touchdown. He then reverted back to the player we've seen for most of the season against the Seahawks with three catches for 13 yards on four targets. Granted, the entire team was terrible against Seattle, but it should be tough for the Vikings again in Week 14. The Cardinals have done a nice job against tight ends for most of the season with only Barnidge, Eifert and Vance McDonald scoring touchdowns and reaching double digits in Fantasy points. Rudolph has scored four touchdowns this year, but he scored double digits in Fantasy points just once, which was against the Packers in Week 11. He's scored five Fantasy points or less eight times, and that's likely what he'll do Thursday night at Arizona.
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Richard Rodgers
LAC • TE • #82
vs. DAL
Projections
PROJECTION7.3
Rodgers was one of the biggest stars in Week 13 with his performance at Detroit on Thursday night. He had eight catches for 146 yards and a touchdown against the Lions, which was highlighted by a 61-yard Hail Mary to win the game. He was playing well before the touchdown with seven catches for 85 yards, and he took advantage of a great matchup against Detroit. The Cowboys will be a tougher opponent, and only one tight end has scored double digits in Fantasy points against Dallas, which was Luke Willson in Week 8. Otherwise we've seen Dallas hold Graham, Gronkowski, Olsen and Jordan Reed to seven Fantasy points or less, and Rodgers has only scored seven points five times this season. I hope he plays well this week because I plan to start him in several leagues (if I advance in the Fantasy playoffs) in Week 15 at Oakland, but this could be a rough game for him given how well the Cowboys have defended tight ends this year.
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Defense/Special teams
Start 'Em
Chiefs (vs. SD): We hope Justin Houston (knee) is able to play this week against the Chargers, but even if he's out the Chiefs DST is a must-start Fantasy option in the majority of leagues. They were great without Houston in Week 13 at Oakland with 20 Fantasy points in a standard league for the third time in the past four games. Kansas City had four sacks, three interceptions and a defensive touchdown. The Chiefs DST was also dominant against the Chargers in Week 11 with 25 Fantasy points behind three sacks, one interception, one fumble recovery and a defensive touchdown while holding San Diego to just three points. A similar performance could happen in the rematch.
Sleepers
Lions (at STL): STL has scored 10 points in the past two games.
49ers (vs. TB): Johnny Manziel has been sacked 11 times in three starts.
Packers (vs. DAL): DAL has scored 20 points or less in 3 of the past 4 games.
Sit 'Em
Bengals (vs. PIT): The high for Fantasy points for an opposing DST against the Steelers this season is 15, which was done twice by the Rams in Week 3 and the Bengals in Week 8. The Rams game was when Roethlisberger first hurt his knee and left, and the Bengals game was his first one back following a four-game absence. When Roethlisberger is healthy, the Steelers offense is hard to stop, and they have scored at least 30 points in four consecutive games. Pittsburgh has allowed four sacks over that span, and no team has a DST touchdown against the Steelers this season. The Bengals DST has scored at least 13 Fantasy points in a standard league in five of the past six games, but they should be considered a risky option in this matchup.
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Kicker
Start 'Em
Connor Barth (vs. NO): Barth is due for a big game this week since he's been held to single digits in Fantasy points in four games in a row after scoring at least 11 points in his first four outings with Tampa Bay. Six kickers have made multiple field goals against the Saints this year, including Kyle Brindza, who opened the season as the kicker for Tampa Bay and made 4-of-5 field goals and two extra points at New Orleans in Week 2. We'd love to see Barth have a similar outing, and he's worth using as a starter this week at home.
Sleepers
Matt Prater (at STL): Nine kickers have multiple field goals vs. STL.
Adam Vinatieri (at JAC): He's 15-of-15 on FGs in his past five vs. JAC.
Phil Dawson (at CLE): CLE has allowed eight FGs in the past three games.
Sit 'Em
Mike Nugent (vs. PIT): The Bengals have an elite offense, and that tends to impact Nugent in a negative way with a lack of field goal attempts. He's attempted more than two field goals just twice this season, which were last week at Cleveland and Week 8 at Pittsburgh. Those two games and Week 6 at Buffalo are the only times he's scored double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league. This game should be high scoring, so we would anticipate more extra points than field goal attempts again for Nugent. The Steelers have also allowed just three kickers to score double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league, and Nugent was the last kicker to attempt multiple field goals against them. In the past four games, opposing kickers have two field goals combined against the Steelers.
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Full Disclosure from Week 13
It's too bad C.J. Anderson hurt his ankle in the first half last week against the Chargers because it seemed like he was headed for a big game. He had seven carries for 42 yards and one catch for 12 yards before going down, and if you double that then he scores double digits in Fantasy points for a standard league. Ronnie Hillman, however, was bad with 19 carries for 56 yards, so it was a disappointing game overall for our Starts of the Week.
Aside from Anderson and Hillman, there were plenty of positive start suggestions. Including sleepers, we had four Top 10 quarterbacks in Ben Roethlisberger, Marcus Mariota, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Alex Smith. We had three Top 5 running backs in Javorius Allen, David Johnson and Matt Forte, and Shaun Draughn and Antonio Andrews also played well. At receiver, Martavis Bryant, Danny Amendola, DeVante Parker and John Brown all played well. And we had the Top 3 tight ends with Richard Rodgers, Delanie Walker and Scott Chandler, which I don't think has ever happened before.
As always, there is a downside when you make predictions, and I suggested starting guys like Jay Cutler, LeGarrette Blount and Jarvis Landry, who let us down. I also said to sit guys like Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin and Latavius Murray, and they were awesome. But, to leave you on a positive note, of the several sit suggestions we got right, DeMarco Murray was the best call since he was terrible in Week 13.| | ||||
| | ||||
| Player | Sportsline projected Pts. | Actual Fantasy Pts. | Start % | Pos. rank |
| Ronnie Hillman, RB, Denver | 9.2 | 5 | 45 | 31 |
| C.J. Anderson, RB, Denver | 9.1 | 5 | 64 | 32 |
| | ||||
| Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers | 21.1 | 41 | 76 | 3 |
| Javorius Allen, RB, Ravens | 10.8 | 22 | 69 | 1 |
| Richard Rodgers, TE, Packers | 4.7 | 20 | 25 | 1 |
| | ||||
| Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers | 17.3 | 6 | 32 | 29 |
| DeMarco Murray, RB, Eagles | 9.8 | 2 | 71 | 59 |
| James Jones, WR, Packers | 8.8 | 1 | 44 | 77 |
| | ||||
| Jay Cutler, QB, Bears | 20.2 | 7 | 40 | 27 |
| LeGarrette Blount, RB, Patriots | 9.6 | 5 | 63 | 33 |
| Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins | 11.1 | 0 | 90 | 85 |
| | ||||
| Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks | 18.9 | 39 | 53 | 5 |
| Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks | 8.6 | 21 | 55 | 3 |
| Latavius Murray, RB, Raiders | 10.9 | 15 | 64 | 11 |