For the vast majority of players in Fantasy Football we should still be leaning into their 2024 expectations while slowly factoring in their 2024 production. This process will continue until we get to Week 5 when their production in this current year will finally be more productive than past years and ADP. But with rookies, we don't have any prior production to fall back on, only ADP. So the needle can move quickly in terms of perception. That's made even more interesting by the wild swings we've seen in production.
In Week 1 Marvin Harrison was an enormous disappointment, Malik Nabers was a WR3, Xavier Worthy scored two touchdowns, and Ladd McConkey looked like the Chargers. In Week 2 McConkey was outplayed by Quentin Johnston, Worthy scored 3.7 Fantasy points, while Nabers and Harrison looked like WR1s. This makes their Week 3 rankings all the more difficult, and their production all the more interesting.
My most interesting watch this week will be Nabers. He goes from the easiest matchup in the league to Browns defense that could cause all kinds of problems for Daniel Jones. If Nabers performs in this spot then he may be ranked in the top 12 all season long. This defense held CeeDee Lamb to 61 yards and Christian Kirk to negative-one yard. They're tied for the third-most sacks and rank top-10 in pressure rate and knockdown rate.
As of now it's easy to paint Nabers as a boom/bust rookie who will take advantage of the best matchups. It will be very difficult to make that argument if he succeeds in Cleveland.
As always, you can find my full projections -- position by position -- over at Sportsline.
12.3 -- Brandon Aiyuk is averaging 12.3 yards per target since the start of 2023, best in the NFL. His target volume should explode with Deebo Samuel out.
20.7% -- Britain Covey had a 20.7% target share in Week 2. It does not appear than Jahan Dotson saw one target.
226.5 -- Andy Dalton has averaged 226.5 yards passing per game in his career. That's a huge upgrade for Diontae Johnson, don't drop him yet.
Through two weeks Mooney has a 19% target share and leads the Falcons with 153 targeted air yards. If Kirk Cousins can build on Week 2, Mooney could be a weekly upside WR3. He should at least be rostered in all leagues that are PPR and start three wide receivers. He also has contingent upside if something happens to Drake London.
The Lions have been torched out of the slot the first two weeks of the season. Last week they shut Mike Evans down, but couldn't contain Chris Godwin and we all remember what Cooper Kupp did to them in Week 1. Dortch isn't Godwin or Kupp, but he did lead Arizona wide receivers in targets in Week 1. If Detroit takes away Marvin Harrison and the deep game, Dortch could have a nice PPR day.
This Rams offense could be a complete disaster, but Johnson is at least the number two target in the offense and some weeks he could be number one. He turned seven targets in Week 1 into 12.9 PPR Fantasy points and played 87% of the snaps last week. You could do worse for a desperation flex.
A 23-year-old former first round pick tied to Justin Herbert just scored 22.1 PPR Fantasy points in one game. He needs to be rostered just about everywhere and if you don't need a starter this week he is the top waiver wire add at wide receiver. I just don't want to trust him in my starting lineup against a Steelers defense that has completely dominated opposing passing games so far this season. Through two weeks Johnston leads the team in target share, air yards, and end zone targets.
Rice is priced outside of the top 12 wide receivers this week, but projects as my number six wide receiver on the slate. He's averaging 17.9 FPPG on the year and I expect the Isiah Pacheco injury increases his total targets as the Chiefs use short targets to make up for what they lose in the run game.
Any time you can get an elite wide receiver at a low roster rate, you have to entertain the idea. The reason Evans' roster rate will be so low is because he is facing one of the best corners in the league and he's coming off of a dud. I won't dispute those are valid reasons, and I wouldn't play Evans in cash games, but in GPPs he brings huge upside every week and as a future Hall of Famer he's had plenty of big games against great corners.
WR Preview
Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 3 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 3. Projected stats for all starting wide receivers are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
