I don't imagine anyone drafted Aaron Rodgers or Carson Wentz envisioning a difficult start/sit decision in Week 4. The fact that the game is in prime time only makes it more agonizing, even if that fact should have not impact on your lineup decision. What should have an impact? Let's dig into it.
We'll start with Rodgers, who was drafted as top-five quarterback despite performing as the No. 12 quarterback last year on a per-game basis. Truth be told, there have been warning signs for a while. He's averaged 7.0 yards per attempt this year, the same as his average since the start of 2015. In that time frame, 39 quarterbacks have thrown at least 600 passes, Rodgers' average ranks 21st. We were hoping Matt Lafleur would fix what ailed Rodgers, but so far he's just thrown the ball less.
Rodgers ranking among quarterbacks this season? Twenty first. Some of that can be explained away by an extremely difficult schedule. The schedule gets much easier in Week 4 with an Eagles defense allowing 293.7 passing yards per game. For that reason, I'm giving Rodgers one more week in my starting lineup ... in most instances. You'll see below my projections have Case Keenum and Daniel Jones ahead of Rodgers. Keenum has a foot injury and Jones has played just one game, so I'd stick with Rodgers despite the projections. But I also have Matthew Stafford ahead of Rodgers, and if both of them were on my roster I would start Stafford ... and then sweat through Thursday night.
I'm less optimistic about Wentz. He's been better than Rodgers (this year and the past two years) but he doesn't have DeSean Jackson, we don't know how healthy Alshon Jeffery is, and his matchup is far more difficult. This Packers defense hasn't really been tested yet, but it has been dominant in the matchups it has faced. I'd start Stafford and Jones over Wentz. Andy Dalton too. As for Keenum, you probably need to roll with Wentz because we don't know the severity of Keenum's foot injury.
Week 4 QB Preview
Numbers to know
- 398 - Patrick Mahomes passing yards per game. We could do an entire section on wild Mahomes numbers.
- 21 - Kirk Cousins pass attempts in Week 3 and his average number of attempts this season. If that doesn't improve, he won't even be a starter in two-quarterback leagues.
- 9.8 - Dak Prescott's average yards per attempt. Only Mahomes has posted a better number this year.
- 139 - Pass attempts for Kyler Murray, the most in the NFL.
- 7 - Total touchdowns for Kyle Allen in two career starts.
- 8.3 - Averaged completed air yards for Jameis Winston and Kyle Allen this season, the highest mark in the league.
- 3.03 - Average time in seconds Baker Mayfield is holding the ball before throwing. Only Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers are holding the ball longer. That has not worked great with Mayfield's offensive line.
- 74 - Rush yards for Gardner Minshew the past two weeks. Only Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott have more.
- 16.2 - Aaron Rodgers' Fantasy points per game this season. That places him outside of the top 20. He's faced a terribly difficult schedule, but if things don't turn around in Week 4, I'll understand if people start giving up on him.
Matchups that matter
I've been hot and cold on Rivers this year, but we'll start just about anyone against the Dolphins. They've allowed 34.3 Fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks in the first three weeks of the season. No team has allowed more.
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The Cardinals just gave up four touchdowns to Kyle Allen and now they get to try to contain Wilson. It's not going to be pretty. Hopefully their offense can score enough to keep Wilson throwing.
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The Patriots have allowed an average of three Fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Part of that is the competition, but they did a number on Ben Roethlisberger in Week 1 as well. I don't really want to start either quarterback in this game.
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The Giants are allowing 10.5 yards per attempt and a a touchdown rate over eight percent. Keenum is must-start in two-quarterback leagues and not a bad streamer in leagues that only start one.
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Waiver Wire Targets
I won't generally list quarterbacks rostered in more than 70% of leagues, but Stafford is an exception because he's a top-10 option this week at home against the Kansas City Chiefs. Stafford and this Lions offense will be chasing the score, and he has plenty of weapons to do it. With Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, T.J. Hockenson and even Danny Amendola, Stafford has posted a 7.8 Y/A in the first three weeks. The only game he threw more than 32 passes he had a very good Fantasy day (Week 1 vs. Arizona). Volume should not be a concern in Week 4.
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Keenum is averaging 41 pass attempts and more than 300 passing yards per game over the first three weeks. Now he gets a Giants defense that has allowed more passing yards than any quarterback not named Patrick Mahomes this season. He won't even be the most popular streamer in this game, but he should be. Just make sure you check the injury report on Friday because Keenum missed practice on Wednesday with a foot injury.
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Dalton ranks as a top 12 Fantasy quarterback and is second in the league in passing yards. But he's still getting no respect from the Fantasy community. With the maturation of John Ross and Tyler Boyd, Dalton has a solid receiving corps even without A.J. Green, and he has a coach in Zac Tayor who knows how to get them open. It also doesn't hurt anything that his team cannot run the ball and its defense can't stop anyone. Worried about the matchup? The Steelers have allowed 9.1 yards per attempt to opposing passers. That's tied for the fourth-highest mark in the league with the Bengals.
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There's a chance Minshew is someone we're starting against most matchups, and he's exactly the type of second quarterback I want in leagues where people are holding two. At the very least we'll be starting him Week 7 and Week 8 against the Bengals and Jets.
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DFS Plays
It's an outstanding matchup against Arizona, and hopefully we can put aside our volume concerns for another week as well. Wilson has thrown the ball 85 times in the past two weeks. Unsurprisingly, he's been awesome, throwing for 706 yards and five touchdowns. He has also run for 73 yards and a score. Wilson is one of the best quarterbacks in the league whenever Brian Schottenheimer lets got of the reins.
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If anything, Keenum's place on the injury report makes him a better contrarian play because it will keep people from considering him throughout the week. There's been big line movement on this game pushing the over/under up close to 50. That's going to make people even more interested in Jones but I prefer Keenum as long as he practices Friday.
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Heath's projections
1 | Patrick Mahomes | 32.28 |
2 | 28.54 | |
3 | 27.71 | |
4 | Lamar Jackson | 27.64 |
5 | 26.02 | |
6 | Dak Prescott | 25.38 |
7 | 25.30 | |
8 | Kyler Murray | 25.05 |
9 | 24.94 | |
10 | Matthew Stafford | 24.63 |
11 | Case Keenum | 24.28 |
12 | Daniel Jones | 23.50 |
13 | Aaron Rodgers | 22.85 |
14 | Andy Dalton | 22.49 |
15 | 22.42 | |
16 | Carson Wentz | 22.22 |
So who should you sit and start this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 4 Fantasy football rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
