Remember when the dreaded running back by committee was an exception we could bemoan? Increasingly it's becoming the norm and there were several developments in Week 5 that we need to touch on before we get to the preview.
Damien Williams returned for the Chiefs and took all but two of the running back touches against the Colts. I don't know if LeSean McCoy's ankle flared up or if he got punished for fumbling, but I have a really hard time believing he goes another game without a carry. McCoy is averaging 5.4 yards per carry this season while Williams sits at 1.8. I made an adjustment to my projections but still expect this to be a fairly close split. Darrel Williams looks droppable though.
Melvin Gordon returned for the Chargers and received 12 carries to Austin Ekeler's three. Of course, Ekeler may have just been tired from the 16 targets he saw to Gordon's six. The touches ended up very close to 50-50, which is what we expected. This week I have Gordon projected for 16 touches to Ekeler's 14. You can still start both, with Gordon being the better option in non-PPR and Ekeler being the back to trust in PPR.
Tevin Coleman returned for San Francisco as the 49ers ran wild on Cleveland. Coleman ran 16 times for 97 yards, Matt Breida ran 11 times for 114 yards, and Raheem Mostert pitched in seven carries for 34 yards. A three-headed monster is no good for anyone's upside, but if any offense can support it, it's this one. The 49ers are averaging 200 rushing yards per game. In Week 6 Coleman and Breida are both low-end No. 2 running backs who are better in non-PPR. For what it's worth, Breida was used much more than Coleman in the passing game in Week 5.
For more on Week 6, continue reading for my previews for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end, featuring matchups that matter, DFS plays, streamers, projections, and more.
Week 6 Preview
Gardner Minshew is a heck of a lot of fun. With his mustache and his outfits and his deep shots down the field, it's been impossible not to cheer for him. But it's also time to start taking him seriously.
Five games into the season Minshew is averaging 7.8 yards per attempt and has a passer rating of 105.6. He just threw for 374 yards against a Panthers defense that has been one of the best in the NFL against the pass. He's still yet to face a defense that ranks among the 10 most generous to quarterbacks in Fantasy, yet he ranks as the No. 10 quarterback in Fantasy points.
Is it possible Minshew turns into a pumpkin and Nick Foles gets his job back? It is. But he's not shown us anything to make us think that's a possibility. He's shown mobility with 124 rushing yards. He's shown good judgement with just one interception. He's known for taking shots downfield, but he's also completing 66.7% of his passes.
Through five games Minshew looks like the complete package and D.J. Chark looks like a top-15 wide receiver. Until they prove otherwise I'm going to start treating them like that's exactly what they are.
- 8 - Interceptions for Baker Mayfield. They haven't all been his fault, but things are messy in Cleveland right now. You can't trust him as your starter.
- 222 - Pass attempts for Matt Ryan and Jared Goff, the most in the NFL. They're on pace for more than 700 attempts, and I'm not sure much will change for Ryan.
- 5.8 - Average intended air yards for Luke Falk. Sam Darnold was at 5.6 before he got mono. Let's hope this isn't just an Adam Gase thing, but that's what it looks like.
- 8.4 - Average completed air yards for Dak Prescott, the best mark in the league.
- 206 - Kyler Murray's rush yards on the season. That's how he's a top-12 quarterback with only four passing touchdowns. I expect his touchdown numbers to start normalizing this week.
- 3.3% - Aaron Rodgers' touchdown rate. His career mark is 6.1%. I expect regression starting in Week 6.
The Falcons are allowing the third-most Fantasy points to quarterbacks and just surrendered a fifty burger to Deshaun Watson. Every quarterback they've faced besides Kirk Cousins has scored at least 20 Fantasy points, and Cousins only threw 10 passes.
| |||||||||||||||
It gets easier after Week 6, but you can't consider the rookie on a short week against the best defense in Fantasy.
| |||||||||||||||
I wrote most everything I had to say about Minshew in the lede, but this is also an underrated good matchup. The Saints have allowed the fifth-most Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. I'd start Minshew over anyone you feel questionable about this week, including Carson Wentz and Baker Mayfield.
| |
Dalton is my second favorite quarterback who is available in at least 40% of leagues, but I don't love him. His production last week felt pretty lucky and I still feel uncomfortable with the idea that the Ravens are a bad defense. Still, I'd start him over Wentz and Mayfield.
|
I'm going right back to Jackson against the porous Bengals defense. Week 5 was disappointing for Jackson but I'd only give him credit for one of the three turnovers. He'll face a much easier matchup in Week 6 and if there's anything we've seen this year it's that Jackson can feast on bad defenses.
| ||||
After everything I've written above how could anyone resist Minshew at home against the Saints? I'm guessing his ownership will be lower than it should be. If not, I'll update later in the week.
| ||||
Rank | QB | FPTs |
1 | Patrick Mahomes | 34.10 |
2 | Lamar Jackson | 31.73 |
3 | DeShaun Watson | 28.62 |
4 | Tom Brady | 28.59 |
5 | Matt Ryan | 27.24 |
6 | Russell Wilson | 27.14 |
7 | Dak Prescott | 26.06 |
8 | Kyler Murray | 25.77 |
9 | Gardner Minshew | 25.39 |
10 | Aaron Rodgers | 25.00 |
11 | Matthew Stafford | 24.34 |
12 | Philip Rivers | 23.37 |
13 | Jared Goff | 22.10 |
14 | Jameis Winston | 21.99 |
15 | Andy Dalton | 21.93 |
The following players are not being projected to play Week 6 at this time. Here's what it means:
- 27 - Tackles broken by Chris Carson this season. For the time being it looks like he's tightened his grip on the role in Seattle.
- 3 - Receptions for Sony Michel in Week 5. That's a career-high and a game-changer for his Fantasy value if it becomes a regular thing.
- 1.2 - Yards after contact per attempt for Devonta Freeman. No running back with at least 20 carries owns a lower mark.
- 31.3% - Broken-tackle rate for Duke Johnson. Only Alvin Kamara has been better in that regard. His teammate, Carlos Hyde, is at 11%.
- 40.8% - of Derrick Henry's rush attempts have come with eight defenders in the box. That only makes his production that much more impressive.
- 93% - Todd Gurley's Week 5 snap rate. The time share may be over.
It's a terrible week for waivers at running back, but Hilliman should be considered a borderline starter with both Gallman and Barkley ruled out. I'd expect 15-20 touches including several dump-offs in the passing game. Don't break the bank for a one week starter, but if you have an extra roster spot to play around with, this is how you should use it.
| |
Smith has been much more productive than Freeman on a per-carry basis, and this is a good matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. At the very least, Smith has a chance to score a short-yardage touchdown, but I wouldn't be surprised if he starts to see a bigger share of the work in Atlanta. He's averaging 2 more yards per attempt than Freeman.
| |
I know you don't want to do this, but desperate times call for desperate measures. Seven running backs have scored double-digit PPR points against this Miami defense in four games. Peterson is likely to see 12-16 touches, and this defense is allowing 4.8 yards per carry. He's a flex play who is better in non-PPR.
|
I don't have any new justification, but Mattison is going to remain at the top of this list because of his situation. He's the clear handcuff to a back who has yet to play 16 games in a season. He's also on a team that strives to be one of the most run-heavy teams in the league and is averaging 5.6 yards per carry.
| |
Much like Mattison, Pollard is just one injury away from a featured role in a very good situation. I prefer Mattison because of Cook's injury history, but both Pollard and Mattison need to be rostered virtually everywhere.
| |
David Johnson's back flared up in Week 5 and Edmonds responded with a very good performance against the Bengals. We expect Johnson to be fine in Week 6, but it was a good reminder that Edmonds could find himself in a high-volume role very easily. He doesn't need to be as highly owned as Mattison or Pollard, but he should be rostered in far more leagues than he is now.
|
It's a sad week when we don't have Christian McCaffrey on the main slate, but maybe it will give us some ownership diversity. It's very close at the top for me between Kamara and Dalvin Cook, but Kamara edges him out because of the price drop he saw last week. The Jaguars have actually been gashed on the ground this season, and New Orleans generally goes more run-heavy on the road. Kamara has at least 20 touches in every game Teddy Bridgewater has started.
| ||||
We're always guessing when it comes to contrarian plays on a Tuesday, but I feel pretty confident Lindsay's ownership will be low. He's in a time share against a good defense, right? Kind of. Lindsay had 19 touches last week. He had 25 in Week 3 against the Packers. He only has one game this season with fewer that 15. As for the matchup, the Titans are good defensively but they're also allowing 4.6 yards per carry to running backs. I'll take Lindsay's volume and big-play upside at this cost and low ownership.
| ||||
Non-PPR Rank | PPR Rank | RB | FPTs | PPR FPTs |
1 | 1 | Christian McCaffrey | 25.04 | 31.63 |
3 | 2 | Alvin Kamara | 20.46 | 26.55 |
2 | 3 | Dalvin Cook | 20.50 | 24.66 |
4 | 4 | Aaron Jones | 18.57 | 23.74 |
6 | 5 | Leonard Fournette | 16.51 | 20.70 |
7 | 6 | David Johnson | 15.89 | 20.65 |
5 | 7 | Nick Chubb | 17.62 | 20.05 |
10 | 8 | Le'Veon Bell | 14.07 | 19.45 |
16 | 9 | James White | 12.15 | 18.54 |
18 | 10 | James Conner | 11.95 | 17.66 |
8 | 11 | Ezekiel Elliott | 14.65 | 16.97 |
13 | 12 | Phillip Lindsay | 13.63 | 16.80 |
12 | 13 | Chris Carson | 13.78 | 16.60 |
11 | 14 | Todd Gurley | 13.80 | 16.50 |
20 | 15 | Austin Ekeler | 11.69 | 16.37 |
9 | 16 | Mark Ingram | 14.60 | 16.19 |
19 | 17 | Melvin Gordon | 11.92 | 15.13 |
14 | 18 | Derrick Henry | 13.43 | 14.51 |
28 | 19 | Devonta Freeman | 9.80 | 13.97 |
30 | 20 | Chris Thompson | 9.30 | 13.85 |
17 | 21 | Kerryon Johnson | 12.05 | 13.69 |
15 | 22 | Tevin Coleman | 12.38 | 13.45 |
22 | 23 | Matt Breida | 11.26 | 13.18 |
26 | 24 | Joe Mixon | 10.10 | 13.17 |
27 | 25 | Damien Williams | 9.81 | 12.90 |
33 | 26 | Jon Hilliman | 8.97 | 12.89 |
21 | 28 | Sony Michel | 11.67 | 12.46 |
29 | 27 | Royce Freeman | 9 | 12.69 |
32 | 29 | Kenyan Drake | 9.12 | 11.98 |
24 | 30 | Lesean McCoy | 10.13 | 11.96 |
25 | 31 | Jordan Howard | 10.11 | 11.86 |
23 | 32 | Carlos Hyde | 10.29 | 11.03 |
31 | 33 | Ronald Jones | 9.25 | 10.61 |
34 | 34 | Duke Johnson | 7.46 | 9.25 |
36 | 35 | Miles Sanders | 6.93 | 8.38 |
35 | 36 | Peyton Barber | 7.27 | 8.32 |
I wrote Monday about breakouts from D.J. Chark and Will Fuller and how I'm mostly buying Chark as a top-15 receiver. But they've been far from the only breakouts at the position. In fact, receiver has arguably been the least predictable of all through five weeks. The preseason top-10 is riddled with disappointments.
DeAndre Hopkins, Odell Beckham and JuJu Smith-Schuster are all outside the top-20. Mike Evans and Davante Adams have only had one good game. Stefon Diggs can't buy a target. I'm mostly unconcerned with those receivers. Well, except for Smith-Schuster and Diggs. I expect Hopkins and Beckham will be top-10 receivers soon enough and Evans and Adams have several good games to come. I'm more interested in a few other receivers who are legitimately breaking out.
Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin look like top-10 receivers even once they inevitably cool off. They're dominating targets while maintaining very good efficiency in pass-heavy offenses. I've done a complete 180 on Courtland Sutton, who now looks like a legitimate No. 1 receiver for the Broncos and a top-20 option in Fantasy. But his ascension could be bad news for Emmanuel Sanders, who is losing targets. I'd like to say I buy Terry McLaurin as well. At the very least, I buy that he's very good. Hopefully the return of Case Keenum in Week 6 gets him back on track.
With all that's changed in five weeks at receiver, we'll have some very interesting lineup decisions in Week 6.
The following players are not being projected to play Week 6 at this time. Here's what it means:
- 4 - Wide receivers are averaging more than 10 targets per game; Cooper Kupp, Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen and Tyler Boyd.
- 16 - Average targeted air yards for Mike Evans this season. Among receivers with at least 30 targets only Terry McLaurin has a higher mark.
- 395 - Completed air yards for Amari Cooper, the most in the NFL. Michael Gallup is in the top 30 even with his missed time. This offense is going vertical.
- 113 - Yards per game for Gallup. It's hard to believe Cooper and Gallup can both be this good but the sample size is growing and they get the Jets this week.
- 13.1 - Yards per target for D.J. Chark, the most among receivers with at least 30 targets. Chark's breakout looks legit.
- 6.1 - Yards per target for Curtis Samuel this year, which is worse than his career mark. He's getting targets from Kyle Allen but he's not capitalizing.
- 70.8% - On target catch rate for Marquez Valdes-Scantling. That ranks 58th out of 60 players with at least 30 targets.
| |||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||
If you need someone in a pinch, Sanu is your guy. He's averaging better than seven targets per game and has always been a high catch rate guy. That makes him better in PPR but you could consider him in non-PPR as well due to the high-scoring game we expect this week in Atlanta.
| ||
Tate was a little bit disappointing in his first week as a starter but this week's matchup against the Ravens might be even better than what he had last week. He has 22 targets over his past three games and is averaging around seven yards per target so you should consider his floor around nine PPR Fantasy points. That's good enough to be a borderline No. 3 until A.J. Green returns.
| ||
If we knew Sammy Watkins and Tyreek Hill were both out then Pringle would be the clear No. 1 option. He caught six of nine targets for 103 yards and a touchdown in that same situation in Week 5. But he'd just be a one-week add even in that scenario. I also think it's pretty likely one of the Chiefs' stars return. Just keep your ears open.
| ||
Williams has 19 targets in Josh Rosen's two starts and now gets a matchup against a Washington defense surrendering the third-most Fantasy points to wide receivers. If the Dolphins figured a few things out over the bye we could see Williams morph into a rest of season contributor in Week 6.
|
I don't want to start any Jets pass catchers in Darnold's first start back but there is certainly longterm appeal here. In theory an offense with Anderson, Le'Veon Bell and Chris Herndon should be able to move the ball and put up points. Unfortunately, at this point that's still just a theory.
| |
No team has given up more Fantasy points to opposing wide receivers than the Falcons, so if he can't get it going this week I may have to stop making this argument. Fitzgerald is the No. 1 option in this offense, it just hasn't quite clicked the past two weeks. He's still dominating targets, the Cardinals just haven't been able to put the ball in the end zone. I expect that to change this week and at this price there's enormous upside.
| ||||
Boyd has one game this season with fewer than 10 targets. His 37 catches are the fourth most amongst NFL receivers. A lack of touchdowns are the only thing keeping him from being ranked (and priced) like an elite NFL wide receiver. He's scored 22 Fantasy points in a game twice this season without needing a touchdown to help. Boyd has a huge ceiling each week and his volume should give him a better floor than he's shown.
| ||||
We're guessing this early in the week, but I don't expect an underpriced Sutton to be that popular in a low-scoring game against a good Titans defense. Sutton had six more targets than Emmanuel Sanders in Week 5 and has 10 more since Week 3. He looks like the No. 1 receiver in this offense with enormous weekly upside.
| ||||
Non-PPR Rank | PPR Rank | WR | Non-PPR FPTs | PPR FPTs |
1 | 1 | Michael Thomas | 15.21 | 23.31 |
2 | 2 | Amari Cooper | 15.15 | 21.65 |
5 | 3 | Tyler Boyd | 13.36 | 21.21 |
4 | 4 | Cooper Kupp | 13.64 | 21.03 |
3 | 5 | Chris Godwin | 13.67 | 19.88 |
7 | 6 | Julian Edelman | 12.81 | 19.21 |
8 | 7 | Larry Fitzgerald | 12.79 | 19.02 |
9 | 8 | Keenan Allen | 12.48 | 18.71 |
6 | 9 | D.J. Chark | 12.82 | 18.17 |
10 | 10 | Julio Jones | 12.31 | 17.98 |
15 | 11 | DeAndre Hopkins | 11.44 | 17.64 |
12 | 12 | Michael Gallup | 12.18 | 17.51 |
14 | 13 | Tyler Lockett | 11.63 | 17.37 |
11 | 14 | Courtland Sutton | 12.22 | 17.36 |
21 | 15 | Robert Woods | 10.54 | 16.65 |
13 | 16 | Josh Gordon | 11.80 | 16.32 |
16 | 17 | Will Fuller | 11.31 | 16.06 |
17 | 18 | Odell Beckham | 11.29 | 15.85 |
22 | 19 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | 10.42 | 15.50 |
18 | 20 | Adam Thielen | 11.01 | 15.23 |
20 | 21 | Marquise Brown | 10.79 | 14.96 |
25 | 22 | Kenny Golladay | 10.09 | 14.93 |
19 | 23 | Terry McLaurin | 10.82 | 14.90 |
38 | 24 | Golden Tate | 8.28 | 14.58 |
28 | 25 | Calvin Ridley | 9.70 | 14.57 |
26 | 26 | Jarvis Landry | 9.97 | 14.51 |
23 | 27 | Mike Evans | 10.25 | 14.39 |
24 | 28 | Marvin Jones | 10.16 | 14.28 |
34 | 29 | Alshon Jeffery | 8.65 | 14.26 |
33 | 30 | Emmanuel Sanders | 9.28 | 13.96 |
29 | 31 | Demarcus Robinson | 9.69 | 13.89 |
27 | 32 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 9.72 | 13.83 |
30 | 33 | Byron Pringle | 9.57 | 13.68 |
39 | 34 | Darius Slayton | 8.05 | 13.44 |
42 | 35 | Mohamed Sanu | 7.73 | 13.42 |
31 | 36 | Mike Williams | 9.43 | 13.33 |
32 | 37 | Stefon Diggs | 9.42 | 13.10 |
36 | 38 | Auden Tate | 8.60 | 12.88 |
35 | 39 | D.J. Moore | 8.62 | 12.87 |
37 | 40 | Curtis Samuel | 8.35 | 12.42 |
43 | 41 | Dede Westbrook | 7.54 | 12.27 |
46 | 42 | Diontae Johnson | 7.08 | 11.54 |
40 | 43 | Preston Williams | 7.92 | 11.37 |
45 | 44 | Geronimo Allison | 7.11 | 11.06 |
41 | 45 | Mecole Hardman | 7.83 | 10.64 |
52 | 46 | KeeSean Johnson | 6.11 | 10.25 |
44 | 47 | D.K. Metcalf | 7.27 | 9.86 |
53 | 48 | Ted Ginn | 6.03 | 9.78 |
Remember a few weeks ago when I said tight end wasn't looking so bad? Yeah, you can forget I said that. Hunter Henry got hurt, O.J. Howard disappeared, and Delanie Walker and Greg Olsen remembered how old they are. Even Darren Waller has fallen off pace (and still hasn't reached the end zone). All of that was bad enough. Then we got news that Evan Engram sprained his MCL and has been ruled out for Thursday night against the Patriots.
So let's just be clear here: You're not replacing Engram. There aren't 12 consistently good tight ends with Engram active. You just have to decide if you're aiming for upside or floor, and you need to have realistic expectations. If you get eight PPR points out of whoever you choose, you've done well. If they score a touchdown, even better.
This week there is just one tight end available in close to 50% of leagues who I have projected for at least eight Fantasy points: Gerald Everett. I don't feel confident in him, but confidence is not something you get at tight end anymore.
The following players are not being projected to play Week 6 at this time. Here's what it means:
- 0 - Touchdowns (still) for Darren Waller. The fact that he still ranks in the top eight at the position is a very good sign.
- 14 - Targets for O.J. Howard this season. He caught one pass in Week 5. I'd really like to bet on his talent but we've been given nothing the past two weeks to suggest he's about to bust out of his slump.
- 8 - Targets for Foster Moreau the past two weeks. This is the other side of the coin for Waller. Moreau has been cutting into his volume.
- 10.9 - Average targeted air yards for T.J. Hockenson this year. You may want to consider stashing him even if he misses Week 6.
- 5 - Receiving yards for Greg Olsen the past two games. If it wasn't for a great matchup against Tampa Bay, I'd be considering dropping Olsen.
- 10.5 - Yards per target for Will Dissly in nine career games. Russell Wilson makes everyone efficient, and he may just make Dissly a star.
Everett has 19 targets in the past two games and has turned them into 12 catches for 180 yards and a touchdown. Those numbers are inflated, but Jared Goff's 117 attempts but his 16% target share is still solid for a tight end. I'll like Everett a lot more if Brandin Cooks is out this week.
| |
Every week that passes, Henry gets closer to returning and his ownership gets lower. I get it, and now that the byes are starting, it should only go lower. I'm still very interested in stashing him if I'm streaming weekly because if Henry comes back as what we expected, I still expect him to be a top-six option.
| ||
I've had to move Herndon to the stash section because of the hamstring injury he suffered this week, which is putting his potential return in doubt. He had a good connection with Darnold in 2018 and has more upside than anyone else who is widely available. I expect Herndon to reclaim his job immediately when healthy, but that may not come in Week 6 at this point. I like Herndon considerably more than Everett over the rest of the season once he is active.
|
It's been a disappointing start to the season for Kelce, but after the embarrassment on national TV in Week 5 I expect a bounceback. He's still on pace for almost 90 catches and more than 1,400 yards, but he's just had rotten touchdown luck. He has at least 11 Fantasy points in every game this year and has two-touchdown upside every week.
| ||||
The Bengals don't defend anything particularly well, and Andrews is Lamar Jackson's favorite target. He has at least seven targets in every game this season and ranks second at the position with three touchdowns. This should be a high-scoring game and Andrews should benefit.
| ||||
Non-PPR Rank | PPR Rank | TE | NON-PPR | PPR |
1 | 1 | Travis Kelce | 13.89 | 20.45 |
2 | 2 | George Kittle | 10.50 | 16.97 |
3 | 3 | Austin Hooper | 9.99 | 16.25 |
4 | 4 | Zach Ertz | 9.97 | 16.16 |
5 | 5 | Mark Andrews | 9.52 | 14.62 |
6 | 6 | Will Dissly | 8.26 | 12.61 |
7 | 7 | Greg Olsen | 7.10 | 11.29 |
8 | 8 | Gerald Everett | 5.77 | 9.10 |
10 | 9 | Delanie Walker | 5.13 | 8.78 |
9 | 10 | Jimmy Graham | 5.55 | 8.42 |
11 | 11 | Rhett Ellison | 4.48 | 7.76 |
12 | 12 | Jason Witten | 4.43 | 7.30 |
16 | 13 | Tyler Eifert | 4.07 | 7.09 |
17 | 14 | Vance McDonald | 3.96 | 7.06 |
13 | 15 | Noah Fant | 4.33 | 6.83 |
15 | 16 | O.J. Howard | 4.11 | 6.44 |
18 | 17 | Jared Cook | 3.70 | 6.26 |
14 | 18 | Jordan Akins | 4.12 | 5.83 |