Sound the alarms. Patrick Mahomes only has one touchdown pass in his last two games. He's playing through a high ankle sprain. His top two wide receivers aren't healthy. To answer the headline in the first paragraph; "No, everything is most certainly not okay with Patrick Mahomes."
But he's still our No. 1 quarterback.
As "bad" as things have been for Mahomes the past two weeks, he's thrown for 636 yards and averaged 7.85 yards per attempt. He still hasn't tossed an interception this season. That's outstanding for any other specimen.
Tyreek Hill is moving the right direction, while the rest of his pass catchers have done an adequate job in his stead. Travis Kelce is off to a terrible start in which he's on pace for 89 catches and 1,400 yards.
The ankle is a mild concern, but Mahomes gave no indication he was even close to being removed from Week 5 and has shown steady improvement since.
Is this to say the Chiefs are fine? Not at all. They can't run the ball and they can't stop the run. They have legitimate concerns as it relates to their Super Bowl aspirations. And maybe you could say Mahomes has legitimate concerns when it comes to matching his 2018 production — but no reasonable Fantasy manager expected that.
Mahomes had some negative touchdown luck the past two weeks and his beat up offensive line didn't allow his beat up receiving corps enough time to get open on occasion. It was unfortunate for those of us who were counting on him but it portends no danger in the future.
Week 6 QB Preview
Numbers to know
- 8 - Interceptions for Baker Mayfield. They haven't all been his fault, but things are messy in Cleveland right now. You can't trust him as your starter.
- 222 - Pass attempts for Matt Ryan and Jared Goff, the most in the NFL. They're on pace for more than 700 attempts, and I'm not sure much will change for Ryan.
- 5.8 - Average intended air yards for Luke Falk. Sam Darnold was at 5.6 before he got mono. Let's hope this isn't just an Adam Gase thing, but that's what it looks like.
- 8.4 - Average completed air yards for Dak Prescott, the best mark in the league.
- 206 - Kyler Murray's rush yards on the season. That's how he's a top-12 quarterback with only four passing touchdowns. I expect his touchdown numbers to start normalizing this week.
- 3.3% - Aaron Rodgers' touchdown rate. His career mark is 6.1%. I expect regression starting in Week 6.
Matchups that matter
The Falcons are allowing the third-most Fantasy points to quarterbacks and just surrendered a fifty burger to Deshaun Watson. Every quarterback they've faced besides Kirk Cousins has scored at least 20 Fantasy points, and Cousins only threw 10 passes.
| ||||||||||||||||||
It gets easier after Week 6, but you can't consider the rookie on a short week against the best defense in Fantasy.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Waiver Wire Targets
Minshew is averaging 7.8 yards per attempt, completing t66.7% of his passes and has a passer rating over 100. He's also fifth amongst quarterbacks in rushing yards. The Saints have allowed more Fantasy points to quarterbacks than any defense he's faced so far. He's a top-10 quarterback for me this week.
| |
Dalton is my second favorite quarterback who is available in at least 40% of leagues, but I don't love him. His production last week felt pretty lucky and I still feel uncomfortable with the idea that the Ravens are a bad defense. Still, I'd start him over Wentz and Mayfield.
|
Allen plays the Dolphins in Week 7. There's not much more you need to know.
|
DFS Plays
I'm going right back to Jackson against the porous Bengals defense. Week 5 was disappointing for Jackson but I'd only give him credit for one of the three turnovers. He'll face a much easier matchup in Week 6 and if there's anything we've seen this year it's that Jackson can feast on bad defenses.
| ||||
After everything I've written above how could anyone resist Minshew at home against the Saints? I'm guessing his ownership will be lower than it should be. If not, I'll update later in the week.
| ||||
Heath's projections
Rank | QB | FPTs |
1 | Patrick Mahomes | 34.10 |
2 | Lamar Jackson | 31.73 |
3 | Tom Brady | 27.39 |
4 | Matt Ryan | 27.24 |
5 | Russell Wilson | 27.14 |
6 | DeShaun Watson | 27.12 |
7 | Dak Prescott | 26.06 |
8 | Kyler Murray | 25.77 |
9 | Gardner Minshew | 25.39 |
10 | Aaron Rodgers | 25.00 |
11 | Matthew Stafford | 24.34 |
12 | Philip Rivers | 23.37 |
13 | Jared Goff | 22.10 |
14 | Jameis Winston | 21.99 |
15 | Andy Dalton | 21.93 |
16 | Jimmy Garoppolo | 21.67 |
17 | Kyle Allen | 21.60 |
18 | Kirk Cousins | 21.01 |
19 | Carson Wentz | 20.82 |
20 | Joe Flacco | 20.64 |
21 | Teddy Bridgewater | 20.39 |
22 | Baker Mayfield | 19.81 |
23 | Case Keenum | 19.56 |
24 | Marcus Mariota | 18.62 |
25 | Devlin Hodges | 18.52 |
26 | Daniel Jones | 18.31 |
27 | Josh Rosen | 17.81 |
28 | Sam Darnold | 16.15 |
So who should you sit and start this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 6 Fantasy rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
