The Indianapolis Colts insist there is no quarterback controversy. When healthy, Anthony Richardson is their starter. Fantasy managers who are rostering Josh Downs and Michael Pittman may wish that was not the case. Joe Flacco played 80% of the snaps in Week 4 and all last week, and the difference was stark.
Flacco attempted 70 passes in those two games for 527 yards and five touchdowns. In three-plus games, Richardson attempted 77 passes for 654 yards and three scores. He does not have a game with more than 212 yards passing. The pie is much larger when Flacco is the quarterback.
At least part of the volume difference is the fact that Flacco's intended air yards per pass attempt is 8.7 while Richardson's is 12.7. That creates more PPR potential for the receivers and a higher completion percentage. It also benefits Pittman's style more; he's never had an aDOT above 10.
This qualifier is needed because we're opening the week with Flacco projected as the starter. In the projections, that means both Pittman and Downs are going to show up in the top 20. I lowered them a bit in the rankings on the risk that Richardson is cleared. They're number three wide receivers if their starting quarterback is healthy.
11.72 -- Marvin Harrison's average route depth of 11.7 is the highest in league amongst players with at least 25 targets. That profile is going to make him a boom-or-bust option.
34.5% -- Dontayvion Wicks has a 34.5% catch rate, barely half of his 2023 rate.
Robinson was my top WR add last week, but he's still available in more than a third of leagues. He has at least eight targets in four of his five outings and at least 13 PPR Fantasy points in each of his last three games. He's a must-start top-20 guy if Malik Nabers remains sidelined and a borderline WR2 if Nabers is back.
We'll like Downs more if Flacco is the starter, but he's our favorite Colts wide receiver regardless. He has seen a team-high 28.6% target share since he debuted in Week 3, and he leads the Colts pass catchers with 14.4 PPR FPPG. He's a must-start with Flacco and a good number-three receiver with Richardson.
Tolbert scored 21.7 PPR Fantasy points in his first game without Brandin Cooks, the second time this season he's seen at least nine targets. We're expecting a shootout with the Lions in Week 6, and it's much easier to pass against that defense than run. It should be a high-volume game for Dak Prescott, which makes Tolbert a high-upside WR3.
Smith-Schuster and the Chiefs are on bye in Week 6, so he's not immediate help, but he may be the best available wide receiver for the rest of the season. He earned a 23.5% target share in the team's first game-planned game without Rashee Rice and turned that opportunity into 20 PPR Fantasy points. Rice is out for the season, and I would expect Smith-Schuster to be a WR3 at worst for as long as he can stay healthy.
Reed has a great matchup in Week 6, and his price is still being held down by the Malik Willis games. He's a top-12 wide receiver every week and the rest of the season, with the ability to score from anywhere on the football field and a small role in the running game.
Meyers gets another difficult matchup in the Steelers and Joey Porter Jr., but he just scored 13.2 PPR Fantasy points in a more difficult matchup against Patrick Surtain and the Broncos. He has 28 targets over the past three weeks. His QBs don't seem to care who is covering him, Meyers is getting peppered with targets and way too cheap for his role.
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Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 6 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 6. Projected stats for all starting wide receivers are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
