In the first run of this week's projections, Joe Flacco projects at QB20. I don't know how that sounds to you, but based on what he's done the past two years, it's flat-out disrespectful. 

Flacco has played at least 80% of the offensive snaps in eight games over the past two seasons. In those eight games, he's thrown for 2,332 yards and 20 touchdowns. To put that into context, his 17-game pace if for 4,956 yards and 42 touchdowns. Elite. He's averaged 24.3 FPPG in CBS scoring. Also elite. So why is he projected so low?

It's kind of the reverse of what we talked about last week. Nix was boosted in the projections by a high implied total and an awesome matchup. Flacco's Colts have an implied total of 20.5 this week and they're facing a Vikings defense that has only allowed one QB to top 20 Fantasy points in their building. Brock Purdy, C.J. Stroud, Aaron Rodgers, and Jared Goff averaged 16.75 Fantasy points in Minnesota this season. They had the same number of interceptions as touchdowns (6). 

There's also the fact that a lot of those big numbers from Flacco came in Cleveland last year. He's only averaging 238 passing yards per game for the Colts and just 6.6 yards per pass attempt. He's a must-add in Superflex leagues and I don't mind rostering him in a one-QB league, but there are better options this week. You'll find them in the waivers section below. 

Let's get to the rest of the preview:

No ad available

Week 9 QB Preview

QB Preview
Numbers to know
  • 2 -- Joe Flacco has thrown at least two touchdown passes in each of the last eight games that he played at least 80% of the snaps.
  • 27.3 -- Derek Carr scored 27.3 Fantasy points in Week 1 against the Panthers. He's a start if he's active.
  • 6.0% -- Six percent of Anthony Richardson's passes have been graded as turnover-worthy. Only Will Levis has a higher rate this season.
  • 29% -- Nearly a third of Tua Tagovailoa's passes have gone to running backs, which is evident in the production of both De'Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle.
  • 5.4% -- Jameis Winston has only been sacked on 5.4% of his dropbacks. Deshaun Watson's sack rate was a league-high 13%.
  • 12 -- Bo Nix has 12 red zone rush attempts. Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, and Justin Fields are the only quarterbacks with more.
  • 42.6 -- Geno Smith leads the NFL with 42.6 dropbacks per game. This may be the week the lid blows off his Fantasy production.
QB Preview
Matchups that matter
Matchups that Matter
Projections powered by Sportsline
Derek Carr QB
NO New Orleans • #4
Age: 33 • Experience: 11 year

Weekly Breakdown

@ CAR NO -7 O/U 43.5

OPP VS QB

29th

PROJ PTS

20.6

QB RNK

17th

YTD Stats

PAYDS

989

RUYDS

22

TD

9

INT

4

FPTS/G

17.5
C.J. Stroud QB
HOU Houston • #7
Age: 23 • Experience: 2 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ NYJ NYJ -1.5 O/U 42

OPP VS QB

5th

PROJ PTS

14.5

QB RNK

24th

YTD Stats

PAYDS

1948

RUYDS

84

TD

11

INT

4

FPTS/G

17.7
Tua Tagovailoa QB
MIA Miami • #1
Age: 26 • Experience: 5 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ BUF BUF -6.5 O/U 50

OPP VS QB

6th

PROJ PTS

16.1

QB RNK

21st

YTD Stats

PAYDS

717

RUYDS

41

TD

3

INT

3

FPTS/G

14.9
Bo Nix QB
DEN Denver • #10
Age: 24 • Experience: Rookie

Weekly Breakdown

@ BAL BAL -9.5 O/U 45.5

OPP VS QB

30th

PROJ PTS

17.5

QB RNK

11th

YTD Stats

PAYDS

1530

RUYDS

259

TD

12

INT

5

FPTS/G

18.6
Joe Flacco QB
IND Indianapolis • #15
Age: 39 • Experience: 18 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ MIN MIN -5.5 O/U 46.5

OPP VS QB

23rd

PROJ PTS

15.9

QB RNK

NR

YTD Stats

PAYDS

716

RUYDS

26

TD

7

INT

1

FPTS/G

17.3
Baker Mayfield QB
TB Tampa Bay • #6
Age: 29 • Experience: 7 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ KC KC -8.5 O/U 45.5

OPP VS QB

15th

PROJ PTS

16.7

QB RNK

18th

YTD Stats

PAYDS

2189

RUYDS

169

TD

23

INT

9

FPTS/G

28.3
QB Preview
Waiver Wire Targets
Adds/Streamers (QB Preview)
Derek Carr QB
NO New Orleans • #4
Age: 33 • Experience: 11 year

Weekly Breakdown

@ CAR NO -7 O/U 43.5

OPP VS QB

29th

QB RNK

17th

ROSTERED

31%

YTD Stats

PAYDS

989

RUYDS

22

TD

9

INT

4

FPTS/G

17.5
So I'm on an island with Carr this week, but assuming he plays he's not just an add but he's also a top 12 QB for me. And yes, this has a lot to do with the matchup. Six of eight QBs have scored at least 20 Fantasy points against Carolina and three of the last four have scored at least 27. Carr is averaging a modest 17.6 this season but he has multiple touchdowns in three of five games and he's averaging a very good 7.7 yards per pass attempt.
Bo Nix QB
DEN Denver • #10
Age: 24 • Experience: Rookie

Weekly Breakdown

@ BAL BAL -9.5 O/U 45.5

OPP VS QB

30th

QB RNK

11th

ROSTERED

63%

YTD Stats

PAYDS

1530

RUYDS

259

TD

12

INT

5

FPTS/G

18.6
I don't actually like Nix as much as I did last week. The Ravens are a good matchup, but they aren't as inept as the Panthers. And Vegas doesn't like the Broncos offense near as much, their implied total is eight points lower. Still, the Ravens have given up the third most Fantasy points per game to opposing QBs and Nix is averaging 21.6 FPPG since Week 3.
One To Stash (QB Preview)
Jameis Winston QB
CLE Cleveland • #5
Age: 30 • Experience: 10 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

vs LAC LAC -2 O/U 42.5

OPP VS QB

7th

QB RNK

20th

ROSTERED

14%

YTD Stats

PAYDS

417

RUYDS

4

TD

4

INT

0

FPTS/G

6.9
It looks like a bad matchup this week for Winston and the Browns, but if he looks competent again we may start viewing him as a high-end QB2.
Joe Flacco QB
IND Indianapolis • #15
Age: 39 • Experience: 18 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

@ MIN MIN -5.5 O/U 46.5

OPP VS QB

23rd

QB RNK

NR

ROSTERED

8%

YTD Stats

PAYDS

716

RUYDS

26

TD

7

INT

1

FPTS/G

17.3
The Colts schedule is kind of brutal for the next month but Flacco has been so good it will be hard to care if he succeeds in Minnesota.
QB Preview
DFS Plays
Top DFS Play
Projections powered by Sportsline
Lamar Jackson QB
BAL Baltimore • #8
Age: 27 • Experience: 7 yrs.

Weekly Breakdown

vs DEN BAL -9.5 O/U 45.5

OPP VS QB

4th

PROJ PTS

26.8

QB RNK

3rd

YTD Stats

PAYDS

2099

RUYDS

501

TD

19

INT

2

FPTS/G

29.5
If this game really as simple as just play the best quarterback every week? It seems like it. Jackson is the third-highest Qb by cost but I have him projected for three more Fantasy points than any other QB this week.
Contrarian DFS Play
Projections powered by Sportsline
Derek Carr QB
NO New Orleans • #4
Age: 33 • Experience: 11 year
Carr is your budget option at QB but he comes with big upside thanks to his opponent. He should also come with a low roster rate thanks to the questionable tag that should linger on his profile throughout the week.
QB Preview
Heath's projections

My full set of Week 9 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You'll find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 9. Projected stats for all starting running backs are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.