The Boston Red Sox are the defending AL East champs. They've got a young and dynamic core, have only Drew Pomeranz and Craig Kimbrel as pending free agents in 2018, and look poised to contend for division crowns for years to come.
The New York Yankees fell just short of the World Series last season. Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Luis Severino comprise one of the most electric groups of homegrown talent in the game, and they just added defending NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton to the mix. They too figure to be dangerous for a while, with a combination of youth, talent and money that's tough to beat.
With those AL East powerhouses wielding more youth, more talent and more money than their AL East rivals, baseball's intelligentsia has started advising the Jays, Orioles and Rays to sell their best high-priced commodities for younger players with upside.
For the record, we agree. The Orioles could make a last-ditch effort to contend next season before Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Zach Britton, Brad Brach and others test free agency ... but a woeful lack of starting pitching makes selling the wiser choice. The Rays hung around the fringes of wild-card contention for much of last season and most of their best players are under 30 ... but they'll also likely lose Alex Cobb and Logan Morrison to free agency this winter, have expressed interest in further curbing payroll and have multiple highly marketable players they could shop. The Jays made back-to-back ALCS appearances in 2015 and 2016, they've led the AL in attendance in each of the past two seasons and they suffered through so many injuries and so much bad luck last year that a natural bounce-back should be expected ... but they also employed the oldest group of position players in the majors last season, a bad sign for a team hoping to make a big leap.
If the O's, Rays and Jays do decide to pursue veterans-for-youth deals, they'll have plenty of suitors for their best available players. Here's a rundown of those players, and the teams most likely to join the bidding for their services, if they become available.
Manny Machado, 3B/SS, Orioles
Suitors: Cardinals, Angels, Phillies
Baltimore's ubertalented 25-year-old star has one year left before he can start fielding free-agent offers that could easily top $300 million. Given the conservative approach that the Angelos family and GM Dan Duquette have deployed in recent years, it's nearly impossible to imagine Machado re-signing with the O's, now or next winter. With few viable pitching options for next season beyond Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy, it's also tough to imagine the Orioles vying for an AL East crown in Machado's last year in town. So the trade rumors now swirling around Machado make tons of sense.
Also making sense: The Cardinals as a highly interested party. St. Louis hung around in contention for much of last season before fading late, and was an aggressive bidder in the Giancarlo Stanton sweepstakes. Machado is a different kind of player than Stanton and plays a different position, but he'd still give the Cards a big boost at either third base or shortstop, with 2017 rookie standout Paul DeJong manning whichever position Machado wouldn't take. Machado slumped badly in the first three months of last season, weighing down his end-of-year results. But he's still a dynamic power source in his own right who'd be an MVP-caliber player if he reverts back to his 2015-2016 form. Baltimore's desperate for young starting pitching and the Cards have more of it than virtually any other team, with Luke Weaver, Alex Reyes, and Jack Flaherty heading the organization's list of exciting arms.
The Angels don't have anywhere near that kind of prospect power, but Andrew Heaney and Tyler Skaggs at least offer talent and multiple years of team control, albeit with less upside and more injury concerns than, say, Weaver. Meanwhile the Phillies would see Machado as more of a long-term play, and would likely try to work out a long-term extension if they were to pursue him; don't bet on Machado giving up his shot at a massive free-agent bidding war, though.
Josh Donaldson, 3B, Blue Jays
Suitors: Yankees, Cardinals, Angels
It wasn't anywhere near as sexy a move as the Stanton score, but GM Brian Cashman foisting Chase Headley and his entire $13 million salary on the Padres was a big coup in its own right, giving the Yankees about $27 million in wiggle room under the luxury tax as they try to fill out their roster. Headley's departure, along with 2017 deadline pickup Todd Frazier hitting the open market, does mean that the Yanks will need to find a third baseman this winter. Re-signing Frazier could be the path of least resistance, given Frazier's combination of power, affordability, and his zeal for playing in New York.
The Bombers could think bigger, though. And with Peter Angelos reportedly blanching at any trade scenario that sends Machado to the Bronx, Donaldson could be a hell of a backup plan. The 32-year-old former MVP missed 49 games last season, but still posted his usual monstrous offensive numbers. He's no longer a Gold Glove-quality third baseman, but still profiles as a plus defender who would also make New York's lineup even more terrifying. The Cardinals have been interested in Donaldson for a while and could renew their efforts to land him this winter. The Jays' tenuous position -- a veteran-laden team just a year removed from a playoff run, with a rabid but context-sensitive fan base that might not be as willing to click the turnstiles and buy giant foam fingers if Donaldson and others get shipped out of town -- complicates matters considerably.
Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays
Suitors: Yankees, Cardinals, Angels, Giants, Braves
Once an MVP contender in his own right, Longoria's clearly in the decline phase of his career at age 32. On the other hand, $86 million over the next five years for a player of his skill level isn't too onerous, especially if Longoria's near-term future looks more likely his 2016 (.273/.318/.521) than his 2017 performance (.261/.313/.424). Longoria rated as a top-five defender at his position in 2017 and could see his numbers perk up considerably away from Tropicana Field, a ballpark that absolutely squashes right-handed power hitters.
All of those factors make him an intriguing trade candidate for any number of teams -- obvious suitors like the Yankees and Cards, but also talent-starved clubs like the Giants and Braves that have black holes at third base, and money to spend. New Atlanta GM Alex Anthopoulos has never been shy about making splashy moves too. The bigger question is whether the Rays will trade the best player in franchise history just a year into what the team might have hoped would be the deal that could carry Longoria all the way into retirement. That Tampa Bay could flirt with wild-card contention with a little luck and a couple of well-placed moves makes a Longoria blockbuster even more dubious.
Others who could be in play if their teams dive into sell mode:
Chris Archer, SP, Rays
Alex Colome, RP, Rays
Adam Jones, OF, Orioles
Zach Britton, RP, Orioles
Brad Brach, RP, Orioles
J.A. Happ, SP, Jays
Roberto Osuna, SP, Jays
There's plenty out there for relief-hungry teams to shop for this winter, with Wade Davis and Greg Holland heading a class that remains deep even with quality arms like Mike Minor and Brandon Morrow already securing new gigs. Teams looking for relief help without the burden of a multi-year deal for big bucks could pursue the trade route, though, with Britton and Brach as potentially cheaper one-year rentals, and Colome coming off a league-leading 47 saves, albeit with an oddly diminished strikeout rate. The Astros, Dodgers, Rockies, Twins and Diamondbacks are all 2017 playoff clubs actively looking for quality relievers, though veteran right-hander Pat Neshek signing with the last-place Phillies this week reminds us that any and every team could be in play. The Jays have been reluctant to dangle Roberto Osuna in the past and may have missed their ideal trade window anyway, if Osuna's summer of '17 woes carry over into next season.
Archer landing with the Cubs almost makes too much sense. He was the linchpin of a multiplayer deal back in 2011, one that saw Archer and several other talented young players go to the Rays, with Matt Garza shipped to the North Side; Cubs manager Joe Maddon obviously knows Archer well too. The four years and $34 million Archer has left on his long-term deal make him one of the best bargains in all of baseball, though of course that only incentivizes the Rays to keep him, unless a bidder makes a gigantic offer. Happ could be a solid backup plan for the Cubs, and he'd also make sense for the Astros (Lance McCullers and Charlie Morton are injury risks), Yankees (it gets awfully thin after Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, and Sonny Gray), Red Sox (David Price insurance), Mariners, Brewers and Twins. Jones wasn't anything special last year at .285/.322/.466 with sub-par defense in center field, but he could be an interesting get for an outfield-needy team like Cleveland, given Michael Brantley's ongoing injury concerns.
