The NBA Draft Lottery was nearly a month ago and draft night itself is almost two weeks away. Yet, still there are more questions than answers about how this year's lottery selections are going to shake out.
Because each pick is quite literally a variable that will impact the next pick, there are numerous potential scenarios that front offices are plotting out as we speak.
Here's my latest mock draft:
Mock Draft
Round 1
Round 1 - Pick 1
 
Alex Sarr
C
France
• 7'0"
/ 205 lbs
I've gone back and forth on whether Atlanta will select Sarr or Risacher in recent weeks, which I believe is an appropriate reflection of some of the indecision happening in Atlanta. Sources also say Clingan not only worked out, but made an impression while doing so, fueling rumors of a potential trade down where they could target the big man and add another draft asset.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
If Atlanta does not take Sarr, the expectation is that Washington will. If not, this pick likely comes down to Clingan and Risacher. Given that Washington selected a developmental wing in last year's lottery, Bilal Coulibaly, saw 23-year-old Deni Avdija make a notable jump last year and have to allocate a significant amount of minutes to Kyle Kuzma – Clingan may make the most sense here.
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From
Brooklyn Nets
Round 1- Pick 3
 
Zaccharie Risacher
SF
France
• 6'8"
/ 200 lbs
Here's where the dominoes matter, because if Sarr and Risacher are both off the board, Clingan is not expected to be the pick. Houston reportedly likes Reed Sheppard, but they're also very open to moving this pick. If Risacher is still on the board, the trade market could heat up and so while Houston already has a collection of young wings – Cam Whitmore, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith, Tari Eason – this pick could be made by someone else.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
Sheppard could very possibly be off the board at No. 3, but like Houston, San Antonio is not considered a fit for Clingan. So Castle could also be in play here. In this scenario, Sheppard gives them a heady, skilled and ultratough combo guard who can surround Wemby with some much-needed shooting.
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Round 1 - Pick 5
 
Matas Buzelis
SF
G League Ignite
• 6'10"
/ 209 lbs
Right now, everybody seems to be projecting Buzelis to the Pistons and while it makes sense given the current complexion of their roster, the reality is that Trajan Langdon may have vastly different ideas than anyone else realizes in his first draft at the helm of the organization.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
If things play out differently, Castle could be off the board here, with San Antonio perceived as a very real landing spot at No. 4. If he's available, he makes a lot of sense in between LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller as a defensive stopper and ultraversatile on-off ball threat.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
It's not impossible Clingan is still on the board here since Houston, San Antonio and Charlotte are not perceived as fits. If he's available, he's expected to be the pick. If not, Knecht gives them one of the most NBA-ready perimeter scorers in the draft and a way to iterate out of a perimeter trio that might not fit as currently constructed. Tidjane Salaun is a sleeper here too.
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From
Toronto Raptors
Round 1 - Pick 8
 
Tidjane Salaun
SF
France
• 6'8"
/ 207 lbs
It's all about building around Wemby. Sheppard gives them shooting and intangibles. Salaun gives them a fellow Frenchman and high motored physical specimen who could grow into just the type of ideal complement up front, especially if his shooting potential hits.
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Round 1 - Pick 9
 
Ron Holland
SF
G League Ignite
• 6'8"
/ 206 lbs
There's a narrative that Holland is falling in this draft…and I'm not sure I buy it. He's hypercompetitive and just the type of big wing that is coveted in the modern NBA. The shooting needs work, but it's trending in the right direction and he's a plus defender.
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Round 1 - Pick 10
Williams is a high-risk/high-reward type prospect and so it may take an executive with a high risk tolerance and plenty of job security to make this pick. Danny Ainge clearly checks both of those boxes and if Williams hits, this could go down as a steal.
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Round 1 - Pick 11
Carter is one of the most naturally competitive prospects in the draft. He is also one of the best overall athletes according to the data from the combine. The Bulls refuse to go into all-out rebuilding mode and Carter is a player who could both help right away and still have untapped long-term upside.
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From
Houston Rockets
Round 1 - Pick 12
 
Nikola Topic
PG
Serbia
• 6'6"
/ 200 lbs
Once projected as a potential top-three pick, Topic's partially torn ACL and the potential for surgery, is expected to hurt the 18-year-old's draft stock. OKC makes sense because it can afford to take a shot given its surplus of future draft picks, don't need an immediate impact player here and have an affinity for big guards who can touch the paint at will.
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Round 1 - Pick 13
Dillingham could certainly be off the board at this point, but if he's available, he makes sense for Sacramento. Malik Monk is a free agent and finding a potential replacement in the draft could be a priority. Carter could be an option if he's available, as too could Jared McCain.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
Filipowski could give them a skilled frontcourt piece who could potentially play either the four of the five, a vast contrast to both DeAndre Ayton and Robert Williams. In tandem, the Knecht/Filipowski duo would give them two immediate impact, high floor prospects after high upside picks like Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson have yet to hit quite as hoped.
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Round 1 - Pick 15
McCain has a real chance of being a lottery pick, but if not, Miami could be a logical destination. The Heat put a premium on shooting and culture, two things that McCain should have a positive net effect on. If Carter is still on the board though, don't be surprised to hear his name called here.
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Round 1 - Pick 16
Collier is a big and physical lead guard who creates tempo, sees the floor and can thrive in pick-and-roll. The shooting remains a question mark and while he underachieved defensively this year, he has the tools to be effective on that end. On a Philadelphia team that lacks a long-term prospect at the point, he makes sense.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
Da Silva is a quality plug-and-play option at this point in the draft, meaning his versatility allows him to plug a variety of different holes in the lineup without disrupting the flow of the team. The Lakers are attempting to bridge the gap between winning now and finding some long-term building blocks. Da Silva can serve both.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
Carrington is a high-upside big guard who has been picking up steam in the pre-draft process, even though he may require some patience. Orlando has drafted plenty of guards in recent years, but maybe only Jalen Suggs is a clear part of their long-term future, so developing Carrington is a logical step.
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From
Indiana Pacers
Round 1 - Pick 19
With some questions in Toronto's backcourt, the Raptors could use an infusion of perimeter depth and scoring to solidify their perimeter rotation. Walter gives them that as well as a prospect with some three-and-D potential.
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Round 1 - Pick 20
If Cleveland ever elects to break up their twin towers of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, this would give them a rim-running, shot-blocking, lob threat waiting in the wings to develop.
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From
Milwaukee Bucks
Round 1 - Pick 21
Jonas Valančiūnas is a free agent and center is the one position that the Pelicans haven't invested any recent draft picks. Edey, who was as dominant a college center as we've seen in a long time, is the best one on the board, but DaRon Holmes could be another option.
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Round 1 - Pick 22
This pick could very well be on the market, but if not, the Suns need someone capable of playing immediate rotation minutes. This may seem early for Scheierman, but he's the best plug-and-play option on the board.
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From
New Orleans Pelicans
Round 1 - Pick 23
The Bucks have plenty of young wings to try to develop in the coming season, but lack similar assets up front. Holmes provides that with an athlete who showed growth with his shooting potential this past season.
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From
Dallas Mavericks
Round 1 - Pick 24
I know…this is the most un-Thibbs pick ever. But if Ware ever buys into Thibbs style and the Knicks culture, he could turn into a steal. They also may have a need up front if Isaiah Hartenstein leaves in free agency.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
If Kolek is healthy, he could be one of the most NBA-ready guards in the field. His toughness and competitiveness certainly fit from a culture standpoint and he helps them shore-up their perimeter depth.
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From
Los Angeles Clippers
Round 1 - Pick 26
 
Tyler Smith
PF
G League Ignite
• 6'9"
/ 224 lbs
Smith is a legitimate floor-spacing southpaw big and an underrated athlete on top of that. With Clingan and Smith, Washington walks away with two quality long-term assets up front.
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Round 1 - Pick 27
It's very possible Furphy is already off the board by now, but if not, he provides a young shooter who can add to the floor-spacing around Anthony Edwards for years to come.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
Calvin Booth is always looking for value on the margins and Shead could be able to provide that with his toughness and defense…especially if he becomes a reasonably reliable spot-up shooting threat.
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Round 1 - Pick 29
The Jazz have drafted at least one young player at every position in recent years, so there's bound to be redundancy here. Dunn is a big-time athlete and defender. If he learns to shoot, he'll go down as a steal.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
A big and versatile wing who knows how to play and can make shots would seem to make sense as Brad Stevens looks for some young players to help solidify his team's depth.
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