The feedback on my first mock draft following the NBA Draft lottery was largely affirming, as the latest intel verifies that while there may be some dialogue between Washington and Utah, the Wizards are most likely to walk away with AJ Dybantsa at No. 1, and the Jazz will snag Darryn Peterson at No. 2.
After that, the Grizzlies have yet to tip their cap about whether they prefer Cameron Boozer or Caleb Wilson at No. 3, but Memphis' recent draft history shows a clear preference for the type of physicality and productivity that Boozer brings.
The Chicago Bulls take whichever player is left between Boozer or Wilson, likely landing the UNC star.
Then it becomes about the point guards, and specifically the four one-and-done freshmen. While there is genuine skepticism that they could go with four consecutive picks, the only team without a legit positional need is the Clippers, and they may not be able to justify taking anyone else that high.
This mock draft is my first since returning from last week's NBA Draft Combine in Chicago. So it comes with much more intel and perspective, while the first few picks don't change too much and there isn't much movement in the top 10, it's the latter half of the draft that is impacted the most.
Where things shake up in this latest mock draft are the teams selecting in the 20s. That is where some of the feedback from last week's NBA Combine, both in terms of what we saw on the floor and what we heard behind the scenes, weighed heavily on my latest projections.
Round 1 - Pick 1
In many ways, Dybantsa is the prototype player that NBA teams covet. He's a big wing with positional size, length, athleticism, and an elastic build who can score from all three levels and create his own offense almost on demand. There may be cases to be made for taking others at No. 1, but Dybantsa is perceived as the heavy favorite at this point, so it would be quite a risk for Will Dawkins and the Wizards to move in another direction.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
Nothing I saw or heard last week in Chicago dissuaded me from thinking Peterson was a top-two pick. If Dybantsa is off the board, this is a pretty clear decision for Utah. The hope is that the durability issues from last season are now behind him, and he can merge the shot-making we saw at Kansas with the creation we saw in high school. Slot him next to Keyonte George, and the Jazz have their backcourt of the future.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
Boozer has the highest floor in this draft, and probably an underrated ceiling. Not only can no other player in the field match his history of winning or production, but Boozer also has an unmatched overlap of size, physicality, skill, and feel for the game. Plug him in next to Zach Edey and Cedric Coward and Memphis' rebuilding project already has its frontcourt of the future figured out.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
Wilson is a prospect with a legit star-type outcome and potential. He's a high-level athlete with a big-time motor with unusual elasticity (or bend) for a player his size. Wilson exceeded expectations offensively last year, and yet still has immense room for progress, not just with his perimeter skill-set, but even his defensive polish. Those tools should check a lot of boxes for Bulls' new Executive Vice President of Basketball Operations Bryson Graham.
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From
Indiana Pacers
Round 1 - Pick 5
The Clippers are viewed as a potential trade partner for anyone looking to move up, but if they keep the pick and choose between the quarter of freshmen lead guards, Wagler may be the only one who can fit with Darius Garland. The positional size and shooting give him on/off-ball versatility that would be critical in this context, but it's his feel for the game and natural instincts that may be his true superpower.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
Acuff is a multi-level creator with shooting splits that were off the charts last year at Arkansas and the passing metrics to match. Of all the true freshmen point guards in this draft, he is the readiest to play a major role offensively from day one. For a Brooklyn team that is still lacking an alpha creator, Acuff is too good to pass up on, even if there are plenty of defensive questions.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
Flemings is an elite athlete who can get a piece of the paint on demand, rise up explosively at the rim, get to his pull-up at virtually any time, and be solid on the defensive end. His swing skill is his shooting. He exceeded expectations at Houston and shot it well again at the combine. If that proves to be sustainable, Flemings could have star-type outcomes, and Sacramento should have a stage to offer him from day one.
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From
New Orleans Pelicans
Round 1 - Pick 8
There's skepticism that four freshman point guards will go consecutively, but Brown would make sense for Atlanta after moving off Trae Young at the deadline. He's incredibly skilled, has complete control of the ball, is a pinpoint passer, a much better shooter than his numbers showed at Louisville, and as polished with the ball as any lead guard in the draft. The questions are how he will hold up physically and defensively.
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Round 1 - Pick 9
Burries is a strong and aggressive two-way guard who can get downhill with force, provide a formidable three-point shooter, and simultaneously defend his position. He's also more physically ready to make the transition to the NBA game than most of the other one-and-done guards in the draft. Now does he have the untapped upside that new GM Mike Schmitz tends to covet? That's debatable, but his fit alongside Cooper Flagg from day one should be clear.
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Round 1 - Pick 10
Ament is a polarizing prospect with a wide range of outcomes on draft night. A late-blooming 6-foot-10 combo-forward who is fluid, has touch, and skill, he's also inconsistent and needs to get stronger. While his freshman year was up and down, Ament's overall arc has been linear, and there's still glaring potential. That upside makes him a logical choice for a Milwaukee team that has a very uncertain future ahead of them.
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Round 1 - Pick 11
Mara has real momentum in the draft process and could be off the board before this. At 7-foot-3 (without shoes), he's a giant, even by NBA standards, and a tremendous rim protector. He's also got sneaky mobility, good hands, real passing ability, and provides vertical spacing. With Steve Kerr returning next season, the Warriors' style of play will be staying largely the same, and Mara's facilitating ability fits that.
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From
Los Angeles Clippers
Round 1 - Pick 12
It would almost be unfair if Lendeborg slid to the Thunder here. He is one of the more versatile two-way players, and specifically defenders, in the draft. At 6-foot-9 with a 7-foot-3+ wingspan, he often guarded opposing point guards this year, is an excellent passer, and an improved shooter who made 37% of his threes. Like Mara though, he's another one who may not make it this late into the lottery.
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Round 1 - Pick 13
Philon is one of the more gifted shot creators in this draft class. He not only stuffed the stat sheet as the focal point of one of college basketball's fastest offenses, but did it with 50/40/80 shooting splits. He might not have had as much gas in the tank defensively, but there's tape from his freshman year to remind us that he's plenty capable on that end too. On a Miami team that has decisions to make in the backcourt, and would demand his best on both ends, this would be a good fit.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
Johnson was one of the biggest winners of the combine, measuring bigger than expected with massive length, well-rounded athleticism, and simultaneously reaffirming the shooting gains we saw this year. Combine that with his rugged physicality and lateral mobility, and the versatile two-way role he played at Michigan should be extremely translatable to a Hornets team that is looking to solidify its frontline.
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Round 1 - Pick 15
Bryson Graham is known to covet size, length, athleticism, and physicality (or SLAP for short), and no player left on the board checks those boxes better than Quaintance. After playing only four games this year at Kentucky, he helped himself at the combine by looking explosive in his pro day. He's long, powerful, violently athletic at the rim, and a real game-changer on the defensive end of the floor.
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From
Phoenix Suns
Round 1 - Pick 16
Steinbach is a skilled and smart big man who has elite hands and is a high-volume rebounder. He's a bit between a four and a five, but with the NBA trending back towards more size in the frontcourt, he should be capable of playing both positions on most nights, and a Memphis frontcourt featuring Edey, Boozer, and Steinbach would have depth and optionality alike.
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From
Philadelphia 76ers
Round 1 - Pick 17
Lopez is a Mexican native who played with the New Zealand Breakers in the NBL Next Stars program this year and made really nice strides. He's a hard-playing, physical presence who pressures the rim and competes on both ends. He'll get consideration as high as the late-lottery, but checks many of the boxes that OKC has historically prioritized.
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From
Orlando Magic
Round 1 - Pick 18
Stirtz is a highly skilled true point guard with an elite feel for the game. He's not an overwhelming athlete or defender, but he's a big-time shooter, ultra-reliable and always in the right spots. Stirtz has an understanding of the game beyond his years. If Charlotte goes big at 14, they'll likely look for perimeter depth here with Coby White's upcoming free agency.
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Round 1 - Pick 19
Anderson is a highly skilled lead guard who is both a big-time shooter and a pick-and-roll maestro. There are questions about how he'll adapt physically and defensively, but his offense is worth betting on, especially for a Toronto team that currently lacks those traits at the point guard position.
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From
Atlanta Hawks
Round 1 - Pick 20
Carr followed up on his breakout season at Baylor with a terrific showing at the combine. He's one of the few perimeter prospects in this draft who can combine length, athleticism, and shot-making. He still has some maturing to do, but he's a high upside proposition for a San Antonio organization that is well-suited to support his continued growth.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
This is a big bump up for Okorie, based in large part on intel that has come out in recent days and weeks about the amount of due diligence Detroit is doing on the Stanford star. Okorie lacks overwhelming size, but he has terrific speed, can get a piece of the paint on demand, and his shooting continued to tick up as the season went on last year.
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From
Houston Rockets
Round 1 - Pick 22
Peat is higher than this on the CBS Big Board, but his glaring lack of shooting is going to require a specific fit. The post-Darryl Morey Sixers could be intrigued by his strength, physicality, intangibles, winning pedigree, and ability to get downhill. They lack a long-term solution at the four, and Embiid's face-up skill-set could allow them to co-exist without sacrificing the team's spacing.
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From
Cleveland Cavaliers
Round 1 - Pick 23
Cenac has size, length, athleticism, mobility to slide laterally, and some developing face-up skill and shooting potential. He answered a lot of questions about his motor this year and asserted himself as a rebounder, but still has times where the potential exceeds the production. Given the number of free agents Atlanta has up front this offseason, this could solidify their frontcourt depth.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
With Mitchell Robinson going into free agency this year, it makes sense for the Knicks to go big here. Reed was as good as any big man in the NCAA Tournament and followed that up with a strong combine performance, which makes him the best available five-man at this point. He's long, powerful, has interior skill, underrated face-up ability, and sneaky defensive switch-ability.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
The Lakers are another team that is likely to look for a big man here, and while they may prefer a more defensive-oriented one, Veesaar's combination of size and skill could be too much to pass up on. A stretch-five who shoots it with ease out to the three-point line, Veesaar can play out of dribble hand-offs, pass, and still space the floor vertically, but has to be more consistent defensively and on the glass.
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Round 1 - Pick 26
Swain is a polarizing prospect. At 6-foot-7, he can play off the bounce, create for himself and others, and has real defensive tools. The shooting is a major swing skill for Swain, and while it improved last season at Texas, his showing at the combine only illustrated that there's a long way to go before it becomes consistent. With Peyton Watson entering restricted free agency and Bruce Brown expiring, he would make sense in Denver.
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Round 1 - Pick 27
Allen is a versatile wing who has both skill and toughness. He can handle, pass, and is a better shooter than his numbers indicate. Allen is a high-volume wing rebounder who is the type of competitor who should mesh well with Joe Mazzulla and ultimately realize his defensive potential. There is, however, still a possibility that he returns to school.
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From
Detroit Pistons
Round 1 - Pick 28
Evans looks like the type of shooter you can run plays for in the NBA after proving he could make quick-released movement threes his year at Duke. He's made gradual strides diversifying his game, but physicality, defense, and rim pressure are all swing variables. The bottom line, though, is that what he does best can be fully utilized to create space around Anthony Edwards.
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From
San Antonio Spurs
Round 1 - Pick 29
Graves is an analytic darling who has elite BPM metrics and a rare overlap of defensive playmaking, passing, ball-security, and offensive rebounding. In addition to his combination of physicality and feel, Graves also has great hands and touch to stretch the floor. There is also a chance he could return to college, but would likely stay if he knew he would land in the first round.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
There's real speculation that Moreno could have first-round interest, and while he may not be league-ready at this point, Schmitz is an executive who has shown he's not only willing to be patient but also values size and feel, two things that Moreno has plenty of. I think this is a stretch, but if you believe Moreno's first-round buzz is real, then Dallas could be a likely suitor.
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