2027 NBA Mock Draft: Tyran Stokes, Jordan Smith Jr., Stefan Joksimovic headline top picks before season starts

The ongoing theme of the 2027 NBA Draft is how wide open it will be. Amidst the backdrop of college basketball's NIL market, the upcoming draft, particularly at the top, is more unpredictable than previous years. With eight months still to go, nothing is a sure thing, a drastic shift from what we experienced in last year's cycle.

That includes the draft order itself. The 2027 NBA Draft will mark the first year of the league's lottery reform, or what is called the "3-2-1" lottery system. The new system is designed to discourage tanking. 

There will now be 16 teams in the lottery (up from 14): the 10 teams that miss the postseason entirely, the No. 9 and 10 seeds in both conferences, and the losers of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 Play-In Tournament games. 

There will be a new distribution of lottery balls. The teams with the three worst records would fall into the so-called "relegation" zone. They would receive only two lottery balls each. The seven remaining teams that miss the postseason entirely would receive three balls. The No. 9 and No. 10 seeds would receive two balls, and the loser of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 game would get one ball each. In total, this means there would be 37 lottery balls assigned to 16 teams.

Because that new system makes it much more difficult, if not impossible, to forecast the order, this first mock is reverse-engineered based on Tankathon's predictive win totals and is thus more based on the players than on team needs.

Let's dive in.

Mock Draft

Round 1

Round 1 - Pick 1 Tyran Stokes SF Kansas • Fr • 6'8" / 230 lbs Stokes is the most naturally talented prospect in the draft. He's big and powerful with long arms, magnetic hands, and real playmaking ability. The only knock is the inconsistency of his approach and how that affects his overall impact on winning. If he can answer those questions this year at Kansas, he'll be the number one pick in June.

From Brooklyn Nets Round 1 - Pick 2 Jordan Smith Jr. G Arkansas • Fr • 6'2" / 210 lbs Smith is the polar opposite. He doesn't have the glaring natural talent, but is absolutely loaded with competitive intangibles. He's long, powerful, a standout defender, and an elite perimeter rebounder. He's made steady strides with his skill set, creation, and shooting over the years, but scouts will be watching for continued progress this season.

From Milwaukee Bucks Round 1 - Pick 3 Stefan Joksimovic SF Slovenia • 6'7" / 205 lbs This year is unlike the 2026 draft cycle because we have a true international prospect who opted against playing college basketball. Joksimovic is a Slovenian playing for Baskonia in Spain this season. He's a jumbo creator and initiator who won MVP of the EuroCamp and FIBA European U18 Championship this summer, but still has questions to answer about his shooting and defense.

Round 1 - Pick 4 Caleb Holt SG Arizona • Fr • 6'5" / 215 lbs Holt is long, strong, athletic, and competes with a motor on both ends of the floor. He made steady progress with his guard skills throughout high school, particularly his shooting, and is an impactful defender. The biggest question is how much of his playmaking translates, since he had a tendency to play a lot of bully ball in the high school ranks.

From Los Angeles Clippers Round 1 - Pick 5 Bruce Branch III SF BYU • Fr • 6'8" / 200 lbs Branch has wing size, long arms, and a solid skill set to make threes and pull-ups alike. He's not a dynamic creator, so he may profile as a more likely role player, albeit a potentially high-level one. He should have a major opportunity to thrive in a BYU offense that is expected to prioritize spacing and ball movement all season.

Round 1 - Pick 6 Amari Allen SF Alabama • Soph • 6'6" / 215 lbs Allen would have been a first-round pick a year ago but elected to return to Alabama for his sophomore season. He's likely to have the ball in his hands more this season --- so if he can show he has some creation to add to the overlap of toughness and feel that made him so compelling last year, he could play his way up the board.

From New Orleans Pelicans Round 1 - Pick 7 Motiejus Krivas C Arizona • Sr • 7'2" / 260 lbs Krivas is another one who would have been a first-round pick a year ago. He has tremendous size, even by NBA standards, and was one of the best defenders in all of college basketball last year. Essentially, the role Krivas plays in the Big 12 is completely translatable to the league, and if he shows more offense, then this type of spot in the draft is in play for him,

From Dallas Mavericks Round 1 - Pick 8 Braylon Mullins SG Connecticut • Soph • 6'6" / 198 lbs Mullins has a chance to establish himself as the best shooter in the draft and is expected to be featured in UConn's offense this season. He's grown at least an inch since arriving in college and is a vastly underrated defender. If he adds some secondary playmaking, that's just icing on the cake.

Round 1 - Pick 9 Patrick Ngongba II C Duke • Jr • 6'11" / 250 lbs Ngongba is not quite as big as listed, but he's massively long with broad shoulders. He's a vertical spacer, frontcourt passer, good drop-coverage defender, and a capable rim protector. If he can stay healthy all season long, Ngongba is expected to play a more featured role for Duke and could work his way into the lottery.

Round 1 - Pick 10 Thomas Haugh SF Florida • Sr • 6'9" / 215 lbs Haugh would have been a first-rounder, and maybe even a lottery pick, last year. Instead, he came back to Florida for a major NIL payday. He's a well-rounded athlete who plays multiple positions, has a motor, and doesn't need to be an offensive focal point. Improved three-point shooting would only help his stock.

From Utah Jazz Round 1 - Pick 11 Ivan Kharchenkov SF Arizona • Soph • 6'7" / 230 lbs Kharchenkov was one of college basketball's best defenders last year, but rarely more than the fourth offensive option for Arizona. This year, that is expected to change in a major way.Wwith no questions about his size, strength, defense, or approach, it's just a matter of proving Kharchenkov's offense is gradually catching up.

Round 1 - Pick 12 Alijah Arenas SG USC • Soph • 6'7" / 199 lbs Arenas is a wildcard in this year's draft and a fairly polarizing prospect. He has great perimeter size, length, and some natural offensive tools. With a full off-season under his belt, he's expected to take a major step forward for USC this year, but will simultaneously need to prove the more tertiary parts of his game are translatable.

From Atlanta Hawks Round 1 - Pick 13 Dame Sarr SF Duke • Soph • 6'8" / 200 lbs Sarr is a defensive standout with good wing size and athleticism. He made only 32% of his threes and 53% of his free throws as a freshman at Duke. Still, there is optimism that he could be a reliable standstill floor-spacer in time and thus fit a coveted 3-and-D archetype.

Round 1 - Pick 14 Arafan Diane C Houston • Fr • 7'0" / 280 lbs Diane was the most naturally talented big man in high school basketball last year, but not in good enough shape to maximize his tools. If Kelvin Sampson rectifies that as expected, Diane's size, length, soft hands, inside-out skill, and raw power will intrigue NBA decision-makers.

From Phoenix Suns Round 1 - Pick 15 Quentin Coleman SG Illinois • Fr • 6'4" / 180 lbs Coleman is skilled with shooting, feel for the game, and a nose for the ball. At Illinois, that's drawing early comparisons to Keaton Wagler, which probably isn't fair since he's smaller and less of a point guard. Nonetheless, he already has scouts' attention and could play his way into a one-and-done outcome.

Round 1 - Pick 16 Luigi Suigo C Villanova • 7'3" / 289 lbs The Italian giant had real intrigue in last year's draft before pulling out and committing to Villanova. He's an undeniable project, but has a super intriguing combination of size, skill, and relative mobility.

Round 1 - Pick 17 Cameron Williams PF Duke • Fr • 7'0" / 215 lbs A top five prospect in last year's high school class, Williams may not make as much of an immediate impact as hoped at Duke, but is still a fringe 7-footer who can run, jump, and stretch the floor.

From Miami Heat Round 1 - Pick 18 Davis Fogle SG Gonzaga • Soph • 6'7" / 200 lbs Davis will have an opportunity to be one of college basketball's breakout players this year, and maybe even a jumbo initiator at Gonzaga. If he can sustain his shooting and defense, he could play his way into the first round.

From Los Angeles Lakers Round 1 - Pick 19 David Mirkovic PF Illinois • Soph • 6'9" / 250 lbs Mirkovic will be one of college basketball's best players this year. He's skilled and cerebral, but has heavy feet, so the questions are on the defensive end at the next level.

Round 1 - Pick 20 Jason Crowe Jr. PG Missouri • Fr • 6'4" / 190 lbs The No. 5-ranked prospect in last year's recruiting class, Crowe is the leading scorer in California high school history. He'll have to adapt his style at Mizzou, and doesn't have glaring NBA measurables, but he still possesses a ton of game with the ball.

From Houston Rockets Round 1 - Pick 21 Billy Richmond III SF Arkansas • Jr • 6'7" / 205 lbs Richmond is an explosive athlete, true competitor, and a defensive standout. He'll have a chance to play a bigger role offensively this year at Arkansas and could really help himself with improved shooting.

From Cleveland Cavaliers Round 1 - Pick 22 Malachi Moreno C Kentucky • Soph • 7'0" / 250 lbs Moreno publicly flirted with staying in the draft last year, but opted to return to Kentucky, where he is expected to take a significant step forward. He combines real size with good hands and high basketball acumen.

From Minnesota Timberwolves Round 1 - Pick 23 Anthony Thompson SF Ohio State • Fr • 6'9" / 215 lbs The lefty is long, bouncy, ambidextrous around the rim, and a tough shot-maker. The problem is that the motor is inconsistent, but he'll have every opportunity to figure it out this year at Ohio State.

Round 1 - Pick 24 Matt Able SG North Carolina • Soph • 6'5" / 200 lbs Able didn't fully live up to the hype as a freshman at NC State, but captivated scouts at last year's combine. He ended up at UNC via the portal and now has an opportunity to be a key offensive piece for Mike Malone.

From Denver Nuggets Round 1 - Pick 25 Dash Daniels SF Australia • 6'5" / 198 lbs Daniels, the younger brother of Hawks' Dyson Daniels, has been on the draft radar as a similarly impactful defensive prospect for a few years now. The offense has been the big question, but there is renewed optimism after some encouraging signs early this season in Australia.

Round 1 - Pick 26 Neo Avdalas SF North Carolina • Soph • 6'9" / 220 lbs Avdalas is an advanced passer who could operate as a jumbo initiator for North Carolina. The key is going to be proving that his shooting and defense aren't liabilities.

Round 1 - Pick 27 JJ Andrews SF Arkansas • Fr • 6'6" / 235 lbs Andrews is a power wing with a distinct downhill style and winning pedigree. If the whispers about his improved shooting prove to be accurate and sustainable, then one-and-done is a real possibility.

From New York Knicks Round 1 - Pick 28 Matas Vokietaitis C Texas • Jr • 7'0" / 255 lbs A 7-footer with good hands and feet who can put it on the floor and crash the offensive glass, if Vokietaitis adds more rim protection or floor-spacing, his stock will really surge.

From San Antonio Spurs Round 1 - Pick 29 Rueben Chinyelu C Florida • Sr • 6'10" / 265 lbs Chinyelu is chiseled, with a massive 7-foot-7-plus wingspan, and one of college basketball's best defenders. There's been incremental offensive progress with each passing year, but that's still the key.

From Oklahoma City Thunder Round 1 - Pick 30 Tounde Yessoufou SF St. John's • Soph • 6'5" / 220 lbs The power wing is looking to expand his skill set and improve his feel at St. John's after putting up nearly 18 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 steals per game as a freshman at Baylor.