The Western Conference has been the NBA's superior half for a while, but that might be shifting. The West has two elite teams at the top who are among the favorites to challenge for a championship, but after that, there's a grab bag of playoff and play-in teams that could shake out in any number of ways.
On Thursday, we revealed our preseason Eastern Conference tiers. And with the season set to begin next week, here's our first installment of Western Conference tiers.
(Odds via FanDuel)
Tier 1 -- Heavyweights
Oklahoma City Thunder (+130 to win West)
This is how it figures to shape up for at least the next half-decade. Maybe Oklahoma City isn't scared, but having to battle the Spurs and Victor Wembanyama until further notice just to get out of the West can't be what anyone was hoping for. After the Thunder won the title two years ago, the Spurs skipped the line and defeated the Thunder in last year's Western Conference Finals, sending the then-defending champs home. Jalen Williams was unavailable for much of the regular and postseason, but he's ostensibly healthy now. Chet Holmgren didn't acquit himself well against Wembanyama in the postseason (then again, few did), but he still made All-NBA and finished second in the Defensive Player of the Year race. And Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the reigning two-time MVP. The top-tier talent in OKC is significant, and it's bolstered by the NBA's deepest supporting cast. Three useful rotation pieces in Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins are gone, and no one in OKC will blink. Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell and Jared McCain, last season's trade deadline reclamation project, are more than capable of filling those gaps. As always, coach Mark Daigneault is spoiled for options. The Thunder can match up with any team in the league and beat you in more ways.
San Antonio Spurs (+155)
The Spurs are way ahead of schedule after reaching the NBA Finals for the first time in nine years. Coughing up several massive leads, including a 29-point meltdown in Game 4, on their way to losing in five games to the Knicks is probably not how they wanted it to go. And yet the present and future are bright in San Antonio. At 20, Dylan Harper is already one of the most impressive two-way guards in the league, and, on the merits, he ought to be in the starting lineup. Just ask him. (In fairness, he tried to walk that back this preseason.)
Harper outplayed De'Aaron Fox in the Finals, but Fox's new four-year, $221 million deal likely keeps him among the starting five. Either way, Harper should get plenty of minutes from coach Mitch Johnson. Stephon Castle, 21, was an All-Defensive caliber player last season and upped his shooting efficiency from deep and at the line in the playoffs. The Spurs also signed Tobias Harris in free agency, which might move Julian Champagnie back to the bench. Either way, the reserves figure to be deeper this season. But ultimately, everything revolves around Wembanyama, who, at 23 years old, is already arguably the best player in the world. Wembanyama became the youngest person in history to be named first-team All-NBA and reach the NBA Finals. For good measure, he was also the first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year in league history. All of that should terrify the rest of the league.
In the West, it's the Spurs and Thunder, a big gap, and then everyone else.
Tier 2 -- Punchers' chance
Denver Nuggets (+1400)
Nikola Jokic raises the Nuggets' level significantly. The three-time MVP has shown time and time again that he makes everyone around him better. And he's finally playing alongside someone who's earned serious accolades after Jamal Murray made his first All-Star and All-NBA teams, becoming Joker's first teammate to be named to the latter. Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson and Aaron Gordon all missed significant time last season due to injury. Having them back and healthy will go a long way toward buoying Denver's chances. (The Nuggets starters had a robust plus-13.5 net rating last season.) The problems arise for the Nuggets once David Adelman is forced to go to a bench that once again looks thin (with apologies to newly added DeMar DeRozan). The Nuggets are also the only team in the second apron, which has a lot to do with why Peyton Watson, coming off a breakout season, was shipped to Cleveland. Denver will miss him at both ends of the floor.
Houston Rockets (+1400)
Everything went sideways for the Rockets at various points last season. They lost Fred VanVleet to an ACL injury and decided to empower Amen Thompson as the fill-in point guard. It didn't always go great. Thompson is a heady passer and an otherworldly athlete and defender, but running the show was outside of his comfort zone. Not having an outside shot (or any shot) didn't help him on that front. The Rockets tried to go ultra big, which worked for a while until Steven Adams got hurt. In the end, especially in the disappointing first-round exit to an undermanned Lakers squad, Houston's offense looked completely lost. Alperen Sengun is only 24, but his shooting inefficiency has so far prevented him from leveling up from a good big man to great. Too often, the Rockets relied on Kevin Durant to bail them out and take on added responsibility, particularly in crunch time. KD is one of the great players in NBA history, but there's only so much he can do. A fully healthy Rockets roster should provide more options for coach Ime Udoka, but the questions about what this offense can actually achieve linger.
Minnesota Timberwolves (+1400)
The Wolves decided to roll the dice in the offseason. Tim Connelly, one of the best front office execs in the NBA, evidently made the calculation that last year's roster wasn't good enough to get out of the West. That's a fair assessment. The Wolves added Ayo Dosunmu at the deadline, then scrambled in the postseason when they were hit by injuries, including Donte DiVincenzo popping his Achilles. Not great. In response, the Wolves dumped Julius Randle on the Nets and then moved former Sixth Man of the Year and fan favorite Naz Reid, an unprotected first-round pick, pick swaps and a handful of second-rounders to Charlotte for LaMelo Ball. As the spin goes, it will be the first time Anthony Edwards has played with a passer of Ball's caliber, and the Wolves are taking a chance on a talented but flawed player who might just figure out how to play team basketball in Minnesota. That was the thinking. I hate it. But even with Ball's maddening me-first freelancing, the Wolves should still be comfortably in the playoffs. How long they stick around is another matter.
Tier 3 -- Playoffs by default
Los Angeles Lakers (+2000)
That makes five teams. Six make the playoffs proper. That probably leaves the Lakers by default. After bidding farewell to LeBron James, the Lakers signed Austin Reaves to a four-year deal worth $184 million. Then they overhauled a huge chunk of their roster. The Lakers acquired Walker Kessler from Utah for two unprotected first-rounders and two pick swaps, then signed him to a four-year, $140 million deal. In theory, Kessler, an excellent rebounder and a top-notch rim protector, should slot in perfectly as the center the Lakers have longed to put alongside Luka Doncic. Provided Kessler is available. He played just five games last season. It's a monster bet by the Lakers in every way. They also brought in Quentin Grimes, Sandro Mamukelashvili and Collin Sexton. Add them to Jarred Vanderbilt, Jake LaRavia, Kevon Looney, Bronny James, Matisse Thybulle and first-round pick Cameron Carr, and coach JJ Redick suddenly feels like he has pieces that fit for the first time in his three-year tenure. That might be optimistic, but hey, it's still October.
"Probably the first time in my 3 years here that I feel like the pieces actually fit together.”
— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) September 24, 2026
— JJ Redick
(h/t @ohnohedidnt24)
pic.twitter.com/m0XlBfRqLB
Tier 4 -- Desperate to be in the mix
All four of these teams would probably like to make the playoffs proper, but wishing doesn't make it a reality. As it stands, two of them won't make it out of the play-in. And the two that do are likely headed straight into the Spurs-Thunder wood chipper.
Portland Trail Blazers (+3500)
The Blazers were plucky last season and even took a game off the Spurs in the first round. Since then, owner Tom Dundon has invited an avalanche of negative press, including going to war with the city of Portland over arena demands. The Blazers hired Micah Nori as the new coach on a cut-rate deal. And they traded for Ja Morant, who the Grizzlies couldn't give away at the deadline and were happy to have Portland take off their hands. For his part, Nori seems to understand the obvious: Morant and Damian Lillard should not start together. That's different from making sure the team still runs through Deni Avdija, but you have to start somewhere.
Golden State Warriors (+3500)
The Warriors were thrilled to ink Steph Curry to a discount deal worth $115 million over two years, thereby keeping him in Golden State through his age-41 season. Whether general manager Mike Dunleavy can use those savings to boost an aging and injured roster and make the Warriors contenders again (or something more closely resembling it) seems harder to pull off. Curry played just 43 games last year. Jimmy Butler is still recovering from an ACL injury. Moses Moody is on the shelf to start the season as well. Kristaps Porzingis has suffered a rash of injuries and his health concerns once again have everyone wondering about his status going forward. Al Horford is 40. Draymond Green is 36 and signed a new one-year deal. That last bit is what passes for some of the better non-Curry-related news in Golden State these days.
Utah Jazz (+5500)
The Jazz took a big swing at the trade deadline and acquired Jaren Jackson Jr. from the Grizzlies. Even with Utah trading Kessler to Los Angeles, the front court of Jackson, Lauri Markkanen and Jusuf Nurkic (assuming they're all healthy) should be among the better units in the league. Keyonte George took a big leap a year ago. He'll be joined in the backcourt by No. 2 pick Darryn Peterson, whose potential has Jazz fans salivating. After years of tanking and waiting, Utah is ready to win now. Or at least try. At a minimum, they should be League Pass appointment viewing.
Phoenix Suns (+6500)
Two seasons ago, the Suns won 36 games with Kevin Durant and missed the play-in. Last season, they won 45 games without KD after moving him to Houston, worked their way out of the play-in as the No. 8 seed and got throttled by the Thunder in a first-round sweep. That represents … progress? Yeah, we'll go with that. Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Miles Bridges and another season with a giant question mark at center probably doesn't get the Suns very far. The upside in Phoenix is limited as long as Mat Ishbia is the owner and the mandate is to trade every draft asset not nailed down.
Tier 5 -- Best of a bad bunch
Dallas Mavericks (+15000)
This is where the West falls off a Roadrunner and Coyote-sized cliff. Cooper Flagg had no backcourt to save him and was thrown into the deep end to start last season, only to do swimmingly and emerge as the Rookie of the Year. He looks as good (if not better) than promised and is already a two-way force that Dallas will happily build around. Kyrie Irving is back after missing all of last season with an ACL injury. The Mavs selected Morez Johnson Jr. from Michigan in the first round and hired his college coach, Dusty May, to replace Jason Kidd after new president of business basketball operations Masai Ujiri decided to chart a new course for a franchise in desperate need of it. With Flagg, the future is encouraging, but for the Mavs as a team, that's still a long way off.
Memphis Grizzlies (+30000)
The Grizzlies had been barrelling toward a hard reset since trading Desmond Bane to the Magic for four first-round picks last offseason. Then they shipped Jaren Jackson Jr. to Utah and got the Blazers to take Morant off their hands. Now Cameron Boozer, the No. 3 pick, instantly becomes the face of the franchise as a rookie. Ty Jerome, an estimated plus-minus darling whose health has limited the number of minutes and games he's been available to play, should love having Boozer around, as well as big man Zach Edey, who returns after missing much of last season. It's one slow step at a time in Memphis.
Tier 6 -- Rest of a bad bunch
- New Orleans Pelicans (+30000)
- Los Angeles Clippers (+60000)
- Sacramento Kings (+80000)
Joe Dumars seemed confused about the changes he made to the Pelicans front office. The Clippers were hit with the harshest penalty in league history following the investigation into the Kawhi Leonard no-show cap circumvention scandal. And the Kings are still the Kings. At least Sacramento has Darius Acuff Jr and Ben Simmons' new shot to look forward to.
