NBA contender tiers: At midway mark, 10 teams look like serious title threats

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We're now halfway through the NBA season. It's time for our second Contender Tiers installment. There's been some movement since the first edition, with the Pistons, Spurs and Wolves climbing, the surprising Suns and Celtics continuing to impress, and the bottom falling out on the Bucks.

As a reminder, this is not a power ranking of the entire league. Only teams that have a chance to make a postseason run appear here, though your mileage may vary on who qualifies.

Tier 1: Still the Champs

Oklahoma City Thunder

Things got a little shaky there for a second. After starting the season 24-1, the Thunder hit a rough patch and went 6-6. They lost to the Spurs three times in less than three weeks. That put a quick end to speculation about whether the Thunder could reach 74 wins and set an NBA record. Instead, the pearl clutching began in earnest about OKC being vulnerable.

The concern trolling ended about as quickly as it began. The Thunder rattled off a five-game winning streak that included victories over the Rockets and Spurs. They remain first in defensive rating by a significant margin and they're fifth in offense. Their 13.1 point differential would be the best in NBA history, breaking the record they set just last year. With Nikola Jokić missing time, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the heavy betting favorite to win a second straight MVP. And because of the arbitrary 65-game threshold someone not named Victor Wembanyma might be the Defensive Player of the Year. At present, the odds favor that someone being Chet Holmgren (-135 at FanDuel).

If there was any momentary doubt, rest assured the Thunder are still really good. To paraphrase Ric Flair, to be the champs you gotta beat the champs.

Tier 2: Biggest Challengers

Detroit Pistons
San Antonio Spurs
Denver Nuggets
Minnesota Timberwolves

The Pistons have the second-best record in the NBA. They've made light work of the Eastern Conference, where they're 21-6. That includes recently throttling the Knicks by 31, a team that has puffed out its chest about being a conference contender. Detroit is second in defensive rating and nearly top-10 in offense. Cade Cunningham is a lock to make All-NBA for the second straight season and is currently third in the MVP odds behind only SGA and Luka Dončić. (I have him second in that department, for the record.) Jalen Duren has taken a massive leap, and they're getting contributions up and down the roster from everyone from Ausar Thompson to Duncan Robinson to Caris LeVert. J.B. Bickerstaff for Coach of the Year.

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Brad Botkin

When the Spurs beat OKC three times in roughly two weeks, they put the league on notice that they're not just set up for the future, but that they're here right now. The wild part about that was Wembanyama didn't have a bunch of outrageous outings, at least not by his standards. And after returning from a calf strain the Spurs brought him along slowly and had him coming off the bench. He only recently returned to the starting lineup. That's the scary part for the opposition. San Antonio is top 10 in both offense and defense this season and they haven't had a fully healthy, fully functional Wemby for a good chunk of games. Imagine what they can do when everyone is operational.

After Jokić went down the thought was the Nuggets would fall off, too. In addition to Joker, Denver has had some bad luck with injuries this season, with four of the five starters missing serious time at various points, as well as backup big Jonas Valanciunas. And yet the Nuggets keep fighting. A lot of that has to do with Jamal Murray keeping them afloat while Joker is on the mend. Murray is having a career season and is in line to make the All-Star team for the first time. The Nuggets' top-ranked offense has more than made up for the deficiencies on defense (where Denver is just 23rd). Peyton Watson has blossomed into a legitimate two-way player, while Tim Hardaway Jr and Bruce Brown have been key contributors to the vastly improved bench. When the Nuggets are healthy, watch out. Don't forget that a much worse version of the Nuggets took OKC to Game 7 last postseason. In our most recent playoff predictions, I was one of several staffers who picked the Nuggets to come out of the loaded West.

The Wolves got off to a slow start but have since steadied themselves and are up to fourth in the West. They're sixth in offensive rating and ninth in defense, and they have the third-best point differential in the conference. And no surprise, but Anthony Edwards is balling right now (though the Wolves just wasted a 55-point banger from him in a loss at San Antonio over the weekend). Don't be surprised if he climbs into the top five of the MVP race. Maybe the Wolves tinker at the trade deadline, but the team that's made back-to-back Western Conference Finals is falling into form again.

Tier 3: What, Why and How?

Boston Celtics

Raise your hand if you thought the Celtics would be legitimate Eastern Conference contenders midway the season? Unless you live in Boston, Malden or Waltham put your hand down. Actually put your hand down if you live in those places too. No one believes you. Deep down, I doubt even the Celtics really believed they'd be in this spot right now.

But here they are. Jayson Tatum went down in the 2025 playoffs with an Achilles injury and still hasn't played this season (though he and the Celtics have made plenty of noise about him returning in time for the postseason, if not sooner). Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porziņģis, Al Horford and Luke Kornet were all cost-cutting measures in order to keep the organization from paying roughly half a billion dollars for a team everyone figured was taking a gap year.

Instead, the Celtics are right where they usually are -- near the top of the Eastern Conference. Jaylen Brown is having a career year and should be in the MVP conversation. Derrick White is once again on the short list for All-Defense -- he's in the 96th percentile in defensive estimated plus-minus -- while also having the highest usage rate of his career and being asked to shoulder more of the offensive load than he ever has before.

Outside of those guys and Payton Pritchard, it's anyone's guess who steps up on a given night because Joe Mazzulla has gone so deep into his coaching bag that he has 11 guys in his regular rotation. What an achievement all the way around. As I mentioned, Bickerstaff is my Coach of the Year right now, but no one could argue with Mazzulla winning it.

Maybe the Celtics should be in Tier 2. Before the season, saying they could legitimately win the East would have sounded ridiculous. Not anymore.

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Jack Maloney

Tier 4: Rest of the West

Houston Rockets
Los Angeles Lakers
Phoenix Suns

Before starting their recent home stand, the Rockets played just 13 of their first 36 games in Houston. That's unusual, and it didn't help their record. Houston is 11-12 on the road and had to deal with some strange trips this season, including a recent swing where the Rockets opted to stay in San Francisco ahead of a game against the Kings, who play more than 80 miles away in Sacramento. There were evidently hotel issues. First-world problems. The point here is that more time on their own floor should help even things out for the Rockets, who are 15th in remaining strength of schedule. Being home might also help them find their offensive oomph again; they're 22nd in offensive rating in January after a cold spell. The good news is that their +6.4 point differential is second-best in the West, and they're top-10 in both offensive and defensive rating for the season even with their January struggles.

Putting the Lakers and Suns here feels more aspirational than real. The Lakers have Luka, LeBron James and Austin Reaves (when he eventually returns from a calf injury) which gives them a chance to play spoiler and maybe win a playoff series, but they have obvious roster design flaws. They're 26th in defensive rating -- but somehow third in that department in Clutch games where they've gone 13-1. That disparity and inconsistent effort has very nearly driven head coach JJ Redick to madness. The poor guy is aging in president years.

Unlike the Lakers, the Suns are playing with house money. No one expected them to do anything this season. They're one of the league's pleasant surprises and are on the verge of moving out of the play-in, and into the top six. Jalen Green should be back from injury soon, Devin Booker is having an excellent season, and there are a whole host of really useful players in the rotation, from Dillon Brooks to Grayson Allen to Collin Gillespie. First-year head coach Jordan Ott should get some COY love, too.

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Tier 5: Uh oh?

New York Knicks

Let's start with the positives. The Knicks are third in the East. They're third in offensive rating. And at present they remain the betting favorites to win the conference (+300 on FanDuel).

Now the concerning parts. Since winning the NBA Cup and refusing to hang a banner (never anger the all-powerful Cup Gods), the Knicks are 7-10. They've lost eight of their last 10 games, including getting stomped by the Pistons, an ugly road loss at Sacramento, and a home loss to the Suns over the weekend with a host of Knicks alumni on-hand at Madison Square Garden to watch the indignity. Jalen Brunson is having an MVP-caliber season -- but he rolled his ankle early in that loss to the Kings and has sat out the last two games. You'll recall that Brunson has had ankle issues previously, including last season when he missed a month of the season. The Knicks are praying that isn't the case this time.

Karl-Anthony Towns is having another All-Star-caliber campaign even while having one of the worst shooting seasons of his life. (His 52.5 eFG% would be the worst mark of his career.)

Most concerning of all, they can't seem to stop anyone, which is alarming considering they employ two of the best all-around defenders in the league in OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges, as well as one of the best rim protectors in Mitchell Robinson. The Knicks are 19th in defensive rating. That's worrisome by itself, but they're getting worse. Over the last 15 games, they're 27th in that department. Only the Pelicans, Nuggets and Jazz have been worse. Hard to be true contenders when you're getting consistently cooked on defense. History suggests they're in trouble.

Tier 6: Honorable mention

The Cavaliers haven't been able to get into a real rhythm all season. The Warriors have won seven of their last 10 but the vibes have not been great for a while now. Justice for Jonathan Kuminga. There were next to no expectations for the Raptors and Sixers coming into this season. Count them among the pleasant surprises. (If Joel Embiid plays half a season and is upright for the playoffs, that's a massive win for the Sixers -- especially with Tyrese Maxey emerging as the main man in Philly.) I'm still not sold on Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero working as a viable duo.

Tier 7: Not pictured

Everyone else. The Blazers and Deni Avdija are a surprisingly fun watch. The Grizzlies are a mess. Good luck finding a taker and a real return for Ja Morant (even with the monster game he had in London). Yes, the Clippers have played much better lately -- they've won five in a row and 12 of their last 14 -- but no I'm not buying them doing anything of note even if they sneak into the play-in. Especially since they just sent Kawhi Leonard home from their road trip due to irritation in his left knee.