Ranking the 2026 NBA non‑playoff teams most likely to make the postseason next season
Some situations feel hopeless, but several NBA teams are on the verge of turning the corner
The NBA playoff picture isn't nearly as static as we assume. Last season, 10 teams missed the postseason entirely. This season, six of those 10 teams will be in either the Play-In Tournament or the playoffs proper: the Charlotte Hornets, Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns, Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs and Toronto Raptors.
For a variety of reasons, we should expect similar turnover next season. A number of the worst teams in the NBA, the ones who have spent the past several years tanking, are poised to start competing next season. Meanwhile, with lottery changes coming, there will be less incentive, if any at all, to lose games. That means teams that otherwise may have been bad intentionally could choose to be competitive.
How different might the NBA look if everyone is actually trying?
That's what we're going to try to find out by ranking the 10 teams that won't participate in the playoffs or Play-In Tournament this year by how likely they are to make the cut next year.
10. Sacramento Kings
We're really just going off of history here, right? In the past 20 years, the Kings have been to the playoffs once. That's a 95% miss rate -- and that includes seasons when they seemingly were trying to win.
It seems unlikely that Sacramento will make any genuine attempt at competing next season. The goal will likely be to shed salary and older players. The Kings are already over next year's projected luxury tax before even factoring in their very high first-round pick and filling out the roster. DeMar DeRozan has a partial guarantee on his contract and seems like a natural candidate to be waived or traded. Domantas Sabonis was available on the trade market at the deadline and likely will be again.
The Kings are moving into a rebuild. Or maybe they never left the rebuild that started two decades ago. Either way, it feels safe to assume that they will not be a 2026 playoff team.
9. Chicago Bulls
Ah, Chicago. Sacramento's spiritual partner in crime and actual partner in many, many trades. The Bulls, who cleaned house by firing executive vice president Artūras Karnišovas and general manager Marc Eversley on Monday, haven't been quite as historically hopeless as the Kings, but that's an unrealistic standard to hold any team to. They're the least ambitious Eastern Conference team, and at the moment, they're also the most directionless.
How many players on Chicago's current roster figure to be on the eventual winner they hope to build? Josh Giddey and Matas Buzelis are the only likely choices, though Jalen Smith could stick around as a backup. The Bulls traded off some key role players at the deadline, but waited too long and got little in return. That signaled that Chicago, which can still create significant cap space if it wants to, plans to take this slow. Their draft pick likely won't be especially high this year, and they need several meaningful additions before this team is ready to win much of anything.
8. Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies may have launched a rebuild by trading Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr., but I'm not sure that means we should expect an all-out tank. New lottery rules may make such a strategy impossible anyway. Besides, with three 2027 first-round picks, the Grizzlies are appropriately hedged to play things out organically.
Ja Morant is still on the team, and his contract is so risky that there's been little trade interest in his services. While I'd expect him to struggle as his ability to get to the rim has declined, the chance that he bounces back certainly exists.
It was a small sample, but the Grizzlies outscored their (mostly bad) opponents by 18.4 points per 100 possessions with Zach Edey on the floor this season. How much better could they look with more of him next season? And more of Ty Jerome, for that matter? Cedric Coward should keep growing in his second season.
This is a talented young roster and a competent organization. But it's also a Western Conference team that just gave away two max players. They likely won't be awful, but the playoffs are a bridge too far.
7. Brooklyn Nets
The Nets don't have as much talent in-house as Memphis does, but they have three pretty meaningful advantages. The first is geography. It's easier to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. The second is financial. Both the Nets and Grizzlies can create cap space this offseason, but Brooklyn has easier paths to a lot of it. The third is motivation. The Nets don't control their own 2027 first-round pick. It's the last piece of the 2021 James Harden trade and, therefore, going to Houston through swap rights. Brooklyn won't want to hand Houston another high draft pick after giving them the No. 3 overall choice in 2024, so expect the Nets to try to win next season.
Last year, the Nets overperformed under first-year head coach Jordi Fernandez until Sean Marks started trading away his veterans. This year, the Nets overperformed in Michael Porter Jr.'s minutes early on. The Nets won't be the last team on this list that probably could've been better over the past few years if they'd gone all out. Next year, they likely will.
6. New Orleans Pelicans
Hey, it's the one team on this list that spent the end of this season trying to win! In fairness, they're the only team here that had no motivation to lose. The Pelicans traded their 2026 first-round pick for Derik Queen and therefore sat out the great tank-off of 2026. As a result, they've actually built some momentum going into the 2026-27 campaign.
The Pelicans have hovered around .500 since the end of January. Zion Williamson just had one of the healthiest stretches of his career. Queen and Jeremiah Fears showed promise as rookies. They didn't wind up trading Trey Murphy III or Herbert Jones. Dejounte Murray's comeback from a torn Achilles hasn't been as publicized as Jayson Tatum's, but it's been just as impressive. I wouldn't pick New Orleans to make the 2027 playoffs, especially without knowing what the roster looks like, but it's not crazy.
5. Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks are by far the most complicated team to predict for next season in this group. If they wind up trading Giannis Antetokounmpo, depending on the return, they could fall to as low as No. 9, making them less likely to make the playoffs than anyone but the Kings. If they keep him, they jump a couple of spots because having an MVP candidate in the East goes a long way... if he's healthy. That's no certainty with Antetokounmpo anymore, but this year was still the outlier on that front.
Considering how many feasible scenarios exist here, the middle of the list feels appropriate. The Bucks might wind up trading Antetokounmpo for draft picks. They might be forced to trade him for veterans. Or they could keep him and flip their three tradable first-round picks into something good to pair with him. In six months, they'll either be higher or lower on this list, but for now, they come in at No. 5.
4. Washington Wizards
Trae Young and Anthony Davis are complementary in several ways. Obviously, they should form a strong pick-and-roll partnership for the Wizards next season. But they also fill different big-picture roles. Young is a floor-raiser. His presence generates consistent half-court offense. That's needed to win regular-season games. Davis is the ceiling-raiser. He doesn't have the same playoff weaknesses as Young. Defensive big men are a postseason necessity, and the pairing with Alex Sarr has a chance to be great.
Do I expect Davis to be healthy all year? No. I'd also say he's trending down as a player and will likely continue to do so with age. But he was the upside swing here. Young was the baseline. Just having Young and another year of experience for the younger players on the roster should give the Wizards a baseline competence. They should at the very least be in the mix for a Play-In spot next year. And if they get the best version of Davis? That's when their ceiling starts to rise beyond just the Play-In Tournament.
3. Dallas Mavericks
Now we're talking. We don't know what version of Kyrie Irving the Mavericks are getting back, but even a diminished Irving would be a significant improvement over the guards Dallas has had this year. Davis was the only notable veteran to get traded here, so most of the supporting cast that Nico Harrison assembled when he was trying to win was still intact. The lottery gods seem to have a soft spot for Dallas, so watch them add another top rookie.
But this is really a Cooper Flagg ranking. Second-year All-Stars aren't exactly common, but they do happen. This decade alone, Zion Williamson, LaMelo Ball, Paolo Banchero and Victor Wembanyama all did it. The rookie version of Flagg has been as promising as any of them aside from Wembanyama. If he's the player we think he is, he's going to be a star next year, and if he is a star next year, there's more than enough supporting talent in place for the Flagg-Irving duo to compete for a postseason spot.
2. Utah Jazz
Here's where we cross the threshold from "could make the playoffs" to "I would actually predict that they make the playoffs." The Jazz have spent four years kneecapping Will Hardy at every turn by trading veterans and sitting out key players. Whenever the Jazz have had their best players, they've overperformed. Next year, they will presumably have everyone who is healthy at all times.
The roster lacks a single All-NBA performer, but makes up for it in depth. Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Keyonte George are all possible All-Stars. Walker Kessler should be back in restricted free agency, and he and Jackson are an ideal front-court pairing that should make attacking the basket all but impossible. Ace Bailey's rookie year has been better than the Jazz could have hoped. He's not just a scorer; he's a balanced all-around wing. They'll have another high pick incoming. Other youngsters like Isaiah Collier and Kyle Filipowski have grown into very solid backups.
The Jazz aren't ready to seriously contend, but they have an extremely high floor, an exceptional coach, and after four years of misery, it's safe to presume there's an organizational mandate here to start winning. When the dust settles, I expect the Jazz to be a 2027 playoff team.
1. Indiana Pacers
We started this list with the team that never makes the playoffs and we end it, appropriately, with the team that just last season reached Game 7 of the NBA Finals. The Pacers would be back in the playoffs this season if Tyrese Haliburton were healthy. Tatum and Murray have done so well in their returns from torn Achilles that the Pacers should feel reasonably confident in Haliburton's return. But even if he's compromised, remember that they made the Eastern Conference in 2024 despite Haliburton playing through hamstring issues.
Most of the 2025 Finals roster is still here. The only core player who's been replaced is Myles Turner, and Ivica Zubac is an upgrade. They'll effectively have a 50-50 shot at adding a high draft pick. Whether the Pacers can return to the Finals remains to be seen, but it seems like a no-brainer that they'll at least be in the postseason.
Indiana has missed the playoffs just 10 times since 1990. Multi-year swoons are a rarity here.
