Perhaps no NFL division appears more wide open entering the 2024 season than the NFC South. While the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have quietly held court atop the quartet for each of the last three seasons, shakeups of multiple coaching staffs and one big quarterback makeover have fans across the South dreaming of a takeover, or at least a significant step forward.
How does the division actually stack up for 2024? We broke it down one position group at a time, ranking each club from top to bottom, to get you prepped for the next NFC South showdown:
QB
- Falcons (Kirk Cousins)
- Buccaneers (Baker Mayfield)
- Saints (Derek Carr)
- Panthers (Bryce Young)
Cousins may not be as "safe" as usual, coming off an Achilles tear at 36, but he's been a borderline top-10 play-action signal-caller for long enough to propel Atlanta into the playoff conversation. Mayfield isn't far off in that he's seasoned and gutsy, albeit without a defining "franchise quarterback" stretch on the big stage. Carr is equally resilient, and has shown he can be efficient, but is also notoriously streaky. Young has perhaps the most upside of them all, with the greatest chance to catapult up the order, if his new coaching staff and improved weaponry helps him accelerate his decision-making to NFL speed.
RB
- Falcons (Bijan Robinson)
- Saints (Alvin Kamara)
- Buccaneers (Rachaad White)
- Panthers (Chuba Hubbard)
Despite inconsistent usage as a rookie, Robinson dazzled as an open-field dual threat, making his case to be the centerpiece of the Falcons offense moving forward. Kamara still has the juice to be the most dynamic back of the division, though he's also missed multiple games due to injury in consecutive years. White's best attribute appears to be pass catching, as his rushing marks have been inefficient. And Hubbard may be just a placeholder until the shifty rookie Jonathon Brooks returns from injury.
WR
- Buccaneers (Mike Evans, Chris Godwin)
- Saints (Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed)
- Panthers (Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen)
- Falcons (Drake London, Darnell Mooney)
Despite getting relatively long in the tooth, the Evans-Godwin combo is still borderline top 10, with the former a virtual lock for 1,000 yards on the perimeter. The Saints have arguably the best downfield ability, with Olave quietly rivaling other young receivers in terms of field-stretching skills. Durability is a concern with Carolina's tweaked pairing, but Thielen remains a high-volume machine, and Johnson at least gives Bryce Young some added speed. Atlanta's crop has upside, but feels more like a couple of No. 2 targets.
TE
- Falcons (Kyle Pitts)
- Buccaneers (Cade Otton)
- Saints (Foster Moreau)
- Panthers (Tommy Tremble)
Like teammate Bijan Robinson, Pitts hasn't necessarily benefited from a go-to role of late, but he's proven capable of a wide receiver-like impact downfield. Otton isn't going to stretch a field, but he's been fairly reliable in two seasons with two different quarterbacks. Moreau profiles more as a No. 2 but has enough experience -- and Derek Carr chemistry -- to draw looks. And Tremble is still emerging as a pass catcher.
OL
- Falcons (Jake Matthews, Chris Lindstrom, Kaleb McGary)
- Buccaneers (Tristan Wirfs, Cody Mauch, Luke Goedeke)
- Panthers (Damien Lewis, Robert Hunt, Taylor Moton)
- Saints (Taliese Fuaga, Erik McCoy, Trevor Penning)
Atlanta enjoys Pro Bowl-caliber blocking on both the bookends and interior, which should bode well for new quarterback Kirk Cousins as he settles back into the pocket. Tampa Bay is arguably a close second, with Wirfs doing a lot of the heavy lifting as one of the NFL's most respected tackles. Carolina beefed up the interior with a couple of new guards, while New Orleans is still taking swings to fix the tackle spots.
DL
- Buccaneers (Vita Vea, Calijah Kancey)
- Panthers (Derrick Brown, Shy Tuttle)
- Falcons (Grady Jarrett, David Onyemata)
- Saints (Khalen Saunders, Nathan Shepherd)
Todd Bowles' stingy defense starts up front, where Vea remains a mammoth gap-plugger and Kancey has the tools to be a Pro Bowl difference-maker. Brown remains a big-time anchor for the Panthers' own trenches, fresh off a career-high 103 tackles. Jarrett may not be the difference-maker he once was at 31, but Atlanta's group doesn't lack experience. The Saints don't have a proven interior pass rusher.
EDGE
- Saints (Cameron Jordan, Carl Granderson)
- Falcons (Matt Judon, Arnold Ebiketie)
- Panthers (Jadeveon Clowney, D.J. Wonnum)
- Buccaneers (Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Yaya Diaby)
Call it the old folks' home, with Jordan, Judon and Clowney all headlining their respective pass-rushing groups above the age of 30. The most accomplished of the trio, Jordan has seen his sack production dip in recent years but is still a stout all-around defender. Judon should benefit from fresh scenery working under Raheem Morris. The Panthers' pairing might be the most underrated, with Wonnum quietly emerging as a solid No. 2. Diaby alone might be able to vault the Buccaneers well up the chart.
LB
- Saints (Demario Davis, Pete Werner)
- Buccaneers (Lavonte David, K.J. Britt)
- Panthers (Shaq Thompson, Josey Jewell)
- Falcons (Kaden Elliss, Troy Andersen)
Davis is an ageless wonder at the heart of the Saints' tough defense, flying around the field with elite instincts and physicality at age 35. David isn't far off, still leading Tampa Bay's front seven at 34, though he's got a less proven running mate after Devin White's exit. Thompson missed all but two games in 2023 after a long run as Carolina's tackle machine. Jewell should make for a solid all-around complement.
CB
- Saints (Marshon Lattimore, Paulson Adebo)
- Falcons (A.J. Terrell, Mike Hughes)
- Buccaneers (Jamel Dean, Zyon McCollum)
- Panthers (Jaycee Horn, Dane Jackson)
Lattimore has struggled to stay on the field in recent years, but he's been a top cover man before; he also has the luxury of starting opposite Adebo, who emerged as a big-time playmaker for the Saints secondary in 2023 (four picks, 18 pass breakups). Each of the other three teams really only has one proven full-timer at corner, and they come with questions: Terrell has been more solid than special since a 2021 breakout, and both Dean and Horn have repeatedly missed time due to injuries.
S
- Falcons (Jessie Bates III, Justin Simmons)
- Buccaneers (Antoine Winfield Jr., Jordan Whitehead)
- Panthers (Xavier Woods, Jordan Fuller)
- Saints (Tyrann Mathieu, Jordan Howden)
Atlanta went from having one all-star roamer to two by adding Simmons late this offseason. Even if the ex-Denver Broncos star isn't as fast or durable as he once was, Bates has proven to be one of the game's rangiest back-end defenders. Winfield alone justifies the Bucs as candidates for No. 1 here, possessing a killer combo of instincts, athleticism and physical edge. Fuller could be an underrated ballhawk for Carolina after coming over from the Los Angeles Rams. Mathieu needs a partner in New Orleans.
STs
- Panthers (Eddy Pineiro, Johnny Hekker)
- Falcons (Younghoe Koo, Bradley Pinion)
- Buccaneers (Chase McLaughlin, Jake Camarda)
- Saints (Blake Grupe, Lou Hedley)
Pineiro quietly boasts the third-best career field-goal rate (89%) of all active kickers, while Hekker has been a mainstay among the game's best punters for years. Koo is coming off a rough preseason outing but has been reliable for a half-decade in Atlanta, hitting almost 90% of his kicks with the Falcons. McLaughlin was almost perfect in his debut year for the Bucs, while Grupe is also newer to his team.
Coaches
- Falcons (Raheem Morris, Zac Robinson, Jimmy Lake)
- Buccaneers (Todd Bowles, Liam Cohen)
- Panthers (Dave Canales, Brad Idzik, Ejiro Evero)
- Saints (Dennis Allen, Klint Kubiak, Joe Woods)
A new coach up top? Sure, because while Morris is fresh on the scene, he's not new to the head coaching game, and besides his own well-esteemed background as a defensive schemer, he brings with him a fellow L.A. Rams disciple in Robinson. Bowles tends to lean curiously conservative as a decision-maker but still deserves credit for defensive prowess. The Canales-Evero pairing has the potential to be a long-term hit for Carolina. The Saints, meanwhile, have been too flat despite a refusal to rebuild the lineup.
Final tally
- Falcons (6 of 12)
- Saints (3 of 12)
- Buccaneers (2 of 12)
- Panthers (1 of 12)
By these measurements, the oddsmakers aren't wrong to call the Falcons the favorites to claim the South, despite turning over head coach and quarterback after a six-year absence from the playoffs. And the Saints, who have widely been shrugged off while running it back with the Derek Carr-Dennis Allen team-up, might warrant a further look considering they not only edged out the reigning South champions but also had a couple of second-place marks at key offensive spots: running back and wide receiver.
Still, Tampa Bay's third-place total is a bit deceiving. The Bucs also had six (6) second-place marks, including at premium spots like quarterback and offensive line, suggesting they're just as likely to challenge for another division title. So much of the Falcons' 2024 chances, meanwhile, hinge on Cousins and Morris being the leaders they were hired to be. Otherwise Atlanta's fate could rest on the shoulders of, say, rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr., a total projection.
One thing is clear, however: Unless Bryce Young takes an even bigger leap than expected under Canales, the Panthers still feel a year or so away from entering the postseason conversation. And the 2024 race is most likely to be a three-horse contest between the Bucs, Falcons and Saints.
