The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have ruled the NFC South of late, claiming three consecutive division titles after winning Super Bowl LV following the 2020 season. No, the South obviously isn't one of the strongest divisions in the NFL, but someone has to finish first, and the Buccaneers have been answering the call.
Tampa Bay had a strong season after defeating the Kansas City Chiefs 31-9 to take home the Vince Lombardi Trophy for the second time in franchise history, posting a 13-4 record in 2021 to finish four games ahead of the New Orleans Saints for the NFC South crown. The team went just 8-9 the following year but still grabbed the division title, as the Saints, Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers all were 7-10.
That ended the legendary Tom Brady's three-year tenure with the club, as he made good on his second promise to retire. It didn't end Tampa Bay's run of supremacy in the NFC South, however, as Baker Mayfield stepped in last year and guided the team to a 9-8 record and third straight division title after signing a one-year contract during the offseason.
The Buccaneers proceeded to post a stunning 32-9 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles in the wild-card round of the playoffs before being defeated by the Detroit Lions 31-23 in the divisional round. Mayfield cashed in on his successful season, signing a new three-year contract worth up to $100 million.
The 29-year-old quarterback, who was selected first overall in the 2018 NFL Draft by the Cleveland Browns, had the Buccaneers humming over the first six weeks this season. The team posted a 4-2 record over that span, with one of its losses being a 36-30 overtime setback at Atlanta in Week 5.
Tampa Bay had another crucial divisional game a week later in New Orleans and stormed out to a 17-0 lead before going into halftime with a 27-24 deficit. Whatever was said in the locker room during intermission worked, as the Bucs scored 27 unanswered points en route to a 51-27 victory.
Mayfield and company got off to another strong start against the Baltimore Ravens this past Monday night, scoring on each of their first two possessions for a 10-0 lead. Things went downhill fast for the Bucs, however, as the Ravens found the end zone the next time they had the football to cut their deficit to three points.
Mike Evans, who tallied the 100th touchdown catch of his career in the first quarter, nearly added another on Tampa Bay's next series but was unable to hold on to the ball in the back of the end zone. Making matters worse, the 31-year-old wideout suffered a hamstring injury on the play and missed the remainder of the game.
Baltimore went on to score the next 27 points and carried a 34-10 lead into the fourth quarter. The Bucs battled back to get within 10 but fell 41-31, and they lost the other half of their superb receiving duo with just over a minute remaining, as Chris Godwin dislocated his ankle on a 21-yard catch and will likely miss the rest of the season.
The 28-year-old Godwin was in the midst of the best year of his NFL career. He currently leads the league with 50 receptions, ranks second with 576 receiving yards and is tied for third with five touchdown catches. Meanwhile, Evans - who isn't expected back until after Tampa Bay's bye in Week 11 - shares the NFL lead with six TD receptions.
Being without Evans for a month and Godwin for the rest of the year figures to severely hurt a Tampa Bay attack that is fifth in the league in total offense (383.4 yards), seventh in passing (248.3) and fourth in scoring (29.9 points). The club also ranks eighth in rushing with an average of 135.1 yards per game.
Mayfield certainly has done his part, as he enters Week 8 with a league-leading 18 touchdown passes and is second with 1,859 passing yards. Tight end Cade Otton, who set career highs on Monday with eight receptions and 100 yards, is second on the team with 27 catches and figures to be targeted even more than the 5.9 times per game he has been this season.
Running backs Rachaad White (23 receptions, 198 yards) and Bucky Irving (13, 124) will continue to come out of the backfield to haul in passes, while Sterling Shepard could become a bigger part of the aerial attack. The 31-year-old veteran has only eight catches for 93 yards and a TD in five games during his first season with Tampa Bay after having only 10 receptions for 57 yards and one score over 15 contests in his eighth and final year with the New York Giants in 2023.
The Buccaneers and Falcons are even atop the NFC South with 4-3 records, although Atlanta owns the tiebreaker by virtue of its Week 5 victory. Tampa Bay certainly will need to come away with a win on Sunday against the visiting Falcons, who are 3-0 against division rivals thus far this season.
With the Bucs at full strength, the SportsLine Projection Model felt strongly about their chances for a fourth consecutive NFC South title. Its simulations had them winning the division 59% of the time and said their prospects of making the playoffs were 75.8%.
But the injuries to Evans and Godwin greatly reduces the outlook for Tampa Bay. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, now projects the Bucs win the NFC South 46.4% of the time and gives them a 59.5% chance to qualify for the postseason. It has their prospects of appearing in the Super Bowl at 5.4% and winning it at 2%.
The model is calling for an extremely close contest between the Buccaneers and Falcons on Sunday. However, it isn't one of the three with A-grade picks based on model simulations for the eighth week of the season. You can find those top-tier Week 8 NFL picks at SportsLine.
