Week 1 of the 2024 season is finally here, and it is already chaotic.
Baltimore Ravens MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson threw for what was initially ruled to be a game-tying or go-ahead touchdown pass -- it appeared as though Ravens head coach John Harbaugh was calling for his squad to go for two and the win -- only for the call to be reversed upon further review because tight end Isaiah Likely's right toe was a smidge too big.
Host Kansas City and the back-to-back Super Bowl champion Chiefs survived with a 27-20 victory despite Jackson becoming the first player with at least 250 passing yards (273) and 100 rushing yards in a season opener. Just about anything can happen in the NFL, so what's coming up this weekend? Glad you asked. Here are five bold predictions for the rest of the league's slate opening slate across the next few days.
Multiple rookie quarterbacks earn Week 1 wins
Winning a Week 1 NFL debut isn't easy for rookie quarterbacks. It's been six years since a rookie quarterback won in Week 1.
The last rookie passer to win in Week 1 was then-New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold in 2018. Rookie quarterbacks are 0-7-1 in Week 1 across the past five seasons, including 0-3 last season with each losing by double-digits.
Rookie QBs in Week 1 (last 5 seasons)
| Season | QB | Result |
|---|---|---|
2023 | Anthony Richardson (Colts) | L, 31-21 |
2023 | C.J. Stroud (Texans) | L, 25-9 |
2023 | Bryce Young (Panthers) | L, 24-10 |
2021 | Mac Jones (Patriots) | L, 17-16 |
2021 | Zach Wilson (Jets) | L, 19-14 |
2021 | Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) | L, 37-21 |
2020 | Joe Burrow (Bengals) | L, 16-13 |
2019 | Kyler Murray (Cardinals) | T, 27-27 |
That's why it is bold that both 2024 first overall pick Caleb Williams and 2024 second overall pick Jayden Daniels will each win their first starts Sunday. Williams is looking to become only the fourth No. 1 overall pick to win in Week 1 in the Common Draft Era (since 1967), joining Jim Plunkett (1971), Hall of Famer John Elway (1983) and David Carr (2002).
Williams is the first quarterback chosen in the top five to inherit two wide receivers (Keenan Allen and DJ Moore) who are both coming off NFL seasons with 1,200 or more receiving yards. Plus, Williams also saw Chicago select college football's receiving yards leader Rome Odunze ninth overall in the 2024 draft out of Washington. This will allow the rookie to outduel Tennessee Titans second-year starter Will Levis and his revamped supporting cast that includes Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Boyd and Tony Pollard.
Meanwhile, Daniels upsets the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as quarterback Baker Mayfield struggles in his first football game without former offensive coordinator Dave Canales, who is now the Carolina Panthers head coach.
Josh Allen plays turnover free football vs. Cardinals
Would it surprise you to know Buffalo Bills Pro Bowl quarterback Josh Allen is only 3-2 with 11 touchdowns and 13 turnovers in NFL season openers?
Last year's season opener did him no favors, as he committed four turnovers (three interceptions and a lost fumble) in a 22-16 Week 1 loss against the Zach Wilson-led New York Jets in overtime.
That's why it's a bold prediction for the NFL's leader in passing plus rushing touchdowns since 2020 (173) to play turnover-free football right out of the gate in 2024. Allen is 39-9 as the Bills starting quarterback since 2020 while committing one or fewer turnovers, and he is going to do so against the Cardinals and head coach Jonathan Gannon despite his squad's feisty 2023 in Arizona.
The 2023 Cardinals had the best strength of victory in the NFL last season (.588) with wins against three playoff teams -- the Cowboys Eagles, and Steelers -- as well as the Falcons. Arizona joined the 2023 NFC champion San Francisco 49ers as the only teams in the NFL to beat both Dallas and Philadelphia in 2023. The Cardinals' three wins against playoff teams last season were more than the Chiefs' and Dolphins' combined in 2023.
Without Pro Bowl wideout Stefon Diggs, Allen is unburdened to throw the football to tight Dalton Kincaid or any other target without fear of them getting upset about a lack of touches. This more relaxed outlook for offensive coordinator Joe Brady will yield great results in Week 1 for Allen.
Colts stun Texans to snap 10-game Week 1 losing streak
Only the Cleveland Browns from 2005-2021 had a longer Week 1 winless streak (17) than the Indianapolis Colts' current streak of 10 Week 1s in a row without a victory.
That's going to change when Indy gets its rematch against the reigning AFC South champion Houston Texans in Week 1 this weekend. How are the Colts going to do it? With more and more of bellcow running back Jonathan Taylor. He registered 2023 season-highs in carries (30) and rushing yards (188) in Houston's narrow 23-19 victory in Week 18 last season. That marked his fourth game in a row against the Texans with more than 140 rushing yards.
With Taylor having spent a full offseason with the Colts and not fighting through a contract dispute like he did last offseason, expect him to beat his career rushing yards per game average of 135.2 against the Texans on Sunday. He continues his six-game touchdown scoring streak that ran the last six games of 2023 into the first contest of 2024. Taylor's 135.2 rushing yards per game against the Texans is the most against a single opponent in league history (minimum five games played)
Most career rush YPG vs. single opponent
- Jonathan Taylor vs. Texans: 135.2
- Walter Payton vs. Saints: 132.0
- Eric Dickerson vs. Buccaneers: 128.0
Taylor will be joined by dual-threat quarterback Anthony Richardson in the backfield, a player who stuffed the stat sheet with 577 passing yards, a 3-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio as well as 136 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns last season in just four games played before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. Richardson's presence alongside Taylor will allow Indy to play keep away from 2023 NFL Offensive Player of the Year C.J. Stroud and his high-flying receive trio of Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs.
When Stroud does have the ball, he'll have to go up against the only pass rush in football with four players to have at least eight sacks in 2024 with Samson Ebukam (9.5), Kwity Paye (8.5), DeForest Buckner (8.0) and Dayo Odeyingbo (8.0). Ebukam actually suffered a torn Achiles tendon on the third day of training camp, which makes general manager Chris Ballard's first-round pick of UCLA All-American edge rusher Laiatu Latu even more critical. Latu, the 15th overall pick and first defensive player drafted this year, had the most sacks (23.5) and second-most tackles for loss (34.0) in college football across the last two seasons.
Taylor allowing the Colts to control possession, along with a ferocious pass rush, will provide Indianapolis with a stunning statement win to begin the 2024 season.
Panthers upset Saints to snap New Orleans' Week 1 win streak
The Saints have won five consecutive Week 1 games, the longest active streak in the league. They have also won seven of the past 10 meetings against their Week 1 opponent, the Carolina Panthers, sweeping the series a year ago.
Those streaks will both come to an end Sunday behind the revitalized play of 2023 first overall pick Bryce Young. New Panthers head coach and offensive play-caller Dave Canales' arrival coincides with a massive offensive personnel overhaul in Carolina.
The Panthers signed former Seattle Seahawks starting guard Damien Lewis to a four-year, $53 million contract and former Miami Dolphins guard Robert Hunt to a five-year, $100 million deal this offseason. The Panthers also brought in ex-Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson via trade before selecting three offensive playmakers with their first four picks in the 2024 NFL Draft: South Carolina wide receiver Xavier Legette (32nd overall), Texas running back Jonathon Brooks (46th overall) and Texas tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders (101st overall).
Each of Canales' last two quarterbacks -- the Seahawks' Geno Smith (2022) and the Buccaneers' Baker Mayfield (2023) -- threw for career-highs in passing yards and passing touchdowns while working with the now-Panthers head coach. Sure, Young's 5.5 passing yards per attempt and 73.7 passer rating were both the worst in football last year, but between Canales and his new weapons, Young comes out firing in 2024, leading to a 1-0 start for the new regime in Carolina.
49ers fail to sack Aaron Rodgers on 'Monday Night Football'
No team cycled through more starting offensive linemen (13) in the NFL last season than the Jets. As a result, their patchwork unit allowed 64 sacks (tied for the third-most in football) and 280 quarterback pressures (fourth-most).
That's why it's bold to say 40-year-old quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who is coming off tearing his Achilles four plays into the 2023 season on "Monday Night Football" a year ago, will NOT be sacked against the reigning NFC champion 49ers on Monday. New York went out and signed Tyron Smith, the 2023 second-team All-Pro left tackle who is a future Hall of Famer, to a one-year deal. It also drafted Penn State All-American tackle Olu Fashanu 11th overall in the draft on top of acquiring two of the Ravens' best offensive linemen from a year ago in John Simpson and Morgan Moses.
Despite Nick Bosa, the 2022 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, and Leonard Floyd, who is one just three players with at least nine sacks in each of the last four seasons, leading the charge for the San Francisco pass rush, Rodgers will remain upright all night.
This prediction is even more bold considering Floyd was the Bills pass rusher who took Rodgers down when he tore his Achilles this time a year ago, something the four-time NFL MVP doesn't hold against him.
"I've always enjoyed some side conversation with Leonard over the years," Rodgers said, via SNY. "He is a great player. Played against him on a couple different teams now. I hope he doesn't in any feel responsible for that at all. He is a stand-up guy. I've worked out with him in the offseason. I tease him because a few years ago, he was with the Rams, and I got him to bite on a pump fake and kind of snuck in the end zone. That never happened again the next time we ran that pump fake, he ran right into my chest. He is a great player. He has played at a high level for a long time, and I'll enjoy dapping him up before the game."
