With three weeks remaining in the 2024 NFL season, there appears to be a two-team race for the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, with five others still having a slim chance of finishing with the dubious prize. The New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders lead the competition with 2-12 records, while the New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans all sit at 3-11.
New York and Las Vegas are both in need of a franchise quarterback, and there are only two players that can be categorized as such in the upcoming draft - Shedeur Sanders of the Colorado Buffaloes and Cam Ward of the Miami (FL) Hurricanes. It's a toss-up as to which one will be selected with the top pick, as both have been predicted to go first in the numerous mock drafts put together by football pundits.
The Giants have had the first overall draft pick twice in their history and chose a running back both times. They selected Kyle Rote from the SMU Mustangs in 1951 and took Tucker Frederickson from the Auburn Tigers in 1965, with the former helping them win the NFL Championship in his sixth NFL season. Rote was a four-time Pro Bowler, while Frederickson earned the honor in his rookie campaign.
Meanwhile, the Raiders have owned the No. 1 pick just once since joining the NFL in 1970, and they used it on a quarterback. However, they're hoping that things work out better than they did in 2007 should they be the first team at the podium in Green Bay next April.
With the first selection that year, the franchise - which called Oakland home at the time - took JaMarcus Russell from the LSU Tigers. After three seasons during which he compiled a 7-18 record as a starter and completed 52.1% of his pass attempts with 18 touchdowns and 23 interceptions, Russell was released and never resurfaced in the league despite several tryout attempts.
Both Ward and Sanders have had superb seasons as they conclude their collegiate careers. Ward leads the nation with 36 touchdown passes and ranks second with 4,123 passing yards, while Sanders is second (35) and third (3,926 yards), respectively, in those categories.
New York, which has lost nine straight, has the more difficult remaining schedule of the two teams as it has road games against the Atlanta Falcons (7-7) and NFC East-rival Philadelphia Eagles (12-2) sandwiched around a home meeting with the Indianapolis Colts (6-8). And even though that opponent will enter with a losing record, the Giants are 0-8 at MetLife Stadium this year.
Even though Atlanta remains hopeful of overtaking the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6) for the NFC South title, it has elected to bench veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins and give 2024 eighth overall draft pick Michael Penix Jr. his first NFL start on Sunday. That could open the door for New York to end its losing streak and, at the same time, damage its chances to finish with the No. 1 pick in April.
Las Vegas hosts Jacksonville in Week 16 and visits the New Orleans Saints (5-9) before wrapping up the season at home against the AFC West-rival Los Angeles Chargers (8-6). But since evening their record at 2-2 with a 20-16 triumph over Cleveland in Week 4, the Raiders have lost 10 consecutive contests.
According to the SportsLine Projection Model, the Giants have a 38.6% chance to finish with the No. 1 draft pick. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, says the most likely outlook for the team is that it conclude the year with three victories (46.96%).
The Raiders possess the top overall selection in 20.31% of the model's simulations and also wrap up the campaign with three wins (46.75%), even though their remaining strength of schedule is just .381. Of the five 3-11 clubs, Cleveland - which faces the AFC North-rival Cincinnati Bengals (6-8) and Baltimore Ravens (9-5) on the road and the Miami Dolphins (6-8) at home - has the best opportunity to pick first in the draft (13.32%), according to the model. The Browns' chances could improve this weekend, considering they will be starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson at QB over Jameis Winston against Cincinnati.
While it's possible the Titans or Browns could select a quarterback with the first or second pick, it's more likely that Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter of Colorado would be their choice. The 21-year-old, who excelled at both wide receiver and cornerback for the Buffaloes this season, has made 92 catches for 1,152 yards and 14 touchdowns while also recording 31 tackles and four interceptions on the defensive side of the ball.
Hunter also figures to be at the top of the list for Carolina, New England and Jacksonville, so that could bode well for the Giants and Raiders should they miss out on the No. 1 pick.
| Team | No. 1 pick | 2 Wins | 3 Wins | 4 Wins | 5 Wins | 6 Wins | Remaining SOS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Giants (2-12) | 38.60% | 34.26% | 46.96% | 17.07% | 1.71% | --- | .595 |
Raiders (2-12) | 20.31% | 25.88% | 46.75% | 23.70% | 3.66% | --- | .381 |
Browns (3-11) | 13.32% | --- | 29.06% | 47.40% | 20.87% | 2.66% | .500 |
Patriots (3-11) | 10.68% | --- | 43.02% | 42.96% | 12.92% | 1.10% | .714 |
Panthers (3-11) | 8.29% | --- | 33.52% | 45.40% | 18.66% | 2.42% | .524 |
Jaguars (3-11) | 6.20% | --- | 9.86% | 35.50% | 39.88% | 14.75% | .262 |
Titans (3-11) | 2.60% | --- | 23.78% | 43.79% | 26.84% | 5.59% | .429 |
Las Vegas currently owns the first overall pick by virtue of overall strength of schedule (.538 to New York's .550). Both clubs are in complete disarray at quarterback, as third-stringer Desmond Ridder would make his second straight start for the Raiders in Week 16 if Aidan O'Connell (knee) is unable to return. The Giants are in a similar situation, with No. 3 option Tim Boyle potentially getting the nod due to injuries to Tommy DeVito (concussion) and Drew Lock (heel).
New England has an outside chance of sneaking into the No. 1 spot, as it has two meetings with the AFC East champion Buffalo Bills (11-3) and a matchup against the Chargers remaining on its slate.
The only game that currently features an A-grade pick based on the model's simulations for the 16th week of the season involves a team that has an opportunity to finish with the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft (Browns-Bengals). You can find that top-tier Week 16 NFL pick and other selections at SportsLine.
