After 13 weeks of the 2024 NFL season, the Jacksonville Jaguars appeared to have an excellent opportunity to land the No. 1 overall draft pick for the third time in five years. They were one of three teams with a league-worst 2-10 record and had lost quarterback Trevor Lawrence for the remainder of the campaign due to a concussion and a shoulder injury that required surgery.
Granted, the teams remaining on the Jaguars' schedule wouldn't have any opponent quaking in its cleats, as they had a pair of meetings with the Tennessee Titans ahead in addition to matchups against the Las Vegas Raiders, New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts. Those four clubs entered Week 14 with a combined 14-35 record, while Jacksonville was in the midst of a five-game losing streak.
Things were looking good for the Jaguars in Tennessee last Sunday as they trailed the Titans 6-0 after three quarters. But they scored on their first two possessions in the fourth and came away with a 10-6 victory, severely damaging their chances of stepping up to the podium first at the 2025 NFL Draft in Green Bay next April.
According to the SportsLine Projection Model, Jacksonville saw its prospects of finishing with the No. 1 overall pick fall from 13.6% prior to that win to just 4.72%. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, now says the most likely outlook for the Jaguars is that they conclude the year with five victories (37.90%).
With the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders both sitting at 2-11 and likely coveting quarterbacks in the draft, finishing with the third overall pick might suit Jacksonville just fine. Lawrence, who was the first No. 1 overall pick in franchise history back in 2021, figures to be ready for the start of the 2025 season and would be thrilled to have a target in the form of Travis Hunter.
Hunter has excelled at both wide receiver and cornerback for the Colorado Buffaloes this season and is the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. The junior has made 92 catches for 1,152 yards and 14 touchdowns with Colorado while also recording 31 tackles and four interceptions on the defensive side of the ball.
If the Giants and Raiders possess the first two picks in the draft and select QBs Cam Ward of the Miami (FL) Hurricanes and Shedeur Sanders of Colorado, Hunter certainly would be the third player chosen. That would leave the Jaguars battling the Jets, Titans, Cleveland Browns, New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers - all of whom also have 3-10 records - for the two-way phenom.
Based on remaining strength of schedule, Jacksonville has the upper hand as it is last in the NFL at .269. The Jaguars have home games against the Jets and Titans, as well as road meetings with the Raiders and Indianapolis Colts (6-7).
The model says the Giants currently have the best chance to finish with the No. 1 pick at 36.78%, while the Raiders get the selection 17.16% of the time. New England's prospects are at 14.74% and Cleveland drafts first in 13.28% of the simulations. The Patriots have the toughest strength of schedule among those four teams at .654, while the Giants and Browns both are at .596.
| Team | No. 1 pick | 2 Wins | 3 Wins | 4 Wins | 5 Wins | 6 Wins | 7 Wins | 8 Wins | 9 Wins | SOS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Giants (2-11) | 36.78% | 23.94% | 44.95% | 25.24% | 5.50% | 0.37% | --- | --- | --- | .596 |
Raiders (2-11) | 17.16% | 14.52% | 37.58% | 33.62% | 12.64% | 1.64% | --- | --- | --- | .423 |
Patriots (3-10) | 14.74% | --- | 31.27% | 43.10% | 20.90% | 4.42% | 0.30% | --- | --- | .654 |
Browns (3-10) | 13.28% | --- | 18.63% | 40.65% | 30.18% | 9.59% | 0.96% | --- | --- | .596 |
Panthers (3-10) | 6.58% | --- | 14.97% | 36.97% | 33.81% | 12.50% | 1.76% | --- | --- | .462 |
Jaguars (3-10) | 4.72% | --- | 4.49% | 21.85% | 37.90% | 27.92% | 7.84% | --- | --- | .269 |
Titans (3-10) | 4.47% | --- | 14.08% | 35.60% | 33.90% | 14.26% | 2.16% | --- | --- | .423 |
Jets (3-10) | 2.27% | --- | 6.24% | 27.45% | 40.26% | 22.75% | 3.30% | --- | --- | .500 |
Cowboys (5-8) | 0.01% | --- | --- | --- | 12.77% | 35.54% | 35.43% | 14.18% | 2.08% | .558 |
The Giants have difficult matchups against the Baltimore Ravens (8-5) and NFC East-rival Philadelphia Eagles (11-2), while their other two contests are against the Colts and Atlanta Falcons (6-7). Las Vegas' remaining schedule is more favorable, as its only opponent currently with a winning record is the Los Angeles Chargers (8-5) and three of its four games are at home. But the Raiders could be down to third-string quarterback Desmond Ridder as Gardner Minshew (collarbone) is out for the year and Aidan O'Connell (knee) is questionable after being carted off in last weekend's loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
New England has two meetings with the AFC East champion Buffalo Bills (10-3) and one with the Chargers on its slate, while two of Cleveland's remaining contests are against the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs (12-1) and Baltimore.
Two games feature A-grade picks based on the model's simulations for the 15th week of the season, with one (Panthers-Cowboys) featuring a team that has an opportunity to finish with the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. You can find those top-tier Week 15 NFL picks at SportsLine.
