Wild Card Sunday in the NFL playoffs certainly had its moments, starting with the Washington Commanders thrilling upset victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Washington was the lone road team to win this weekend, setting up a showdown with the Detroit Lions next week.
The Philadelphia Eagles and Buffalo Bills took care of business at home as the No. 2 seeds, emerging into the divisional round next weekend. The Bills will face the Baltimore Ravens while the Eagles will play the winner of the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams.
Plenty of overreactions resulted from the outcome of the Sunday games. Which overreactions are merited? Which ones are actually overreactions?
Commanders can go into Detroit and beat the Lions
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
The Commanders have no business being slept on after Sunday's last-second victory over the Buccaneers. This is a franchise that won their first playoff game since the 2005 wild-card round, so Washington is playing with house money.
They are also tempting fate. This is their sixth victory when tied or trailing in the final 10 seconds this season, the most since 2000. Washington has won four straight games in the final 10 seconds of regulation or overtime, a streak that seems improbable -- and yet they have done it.
Jayden Daniels is having one of the greatest rookie seasons in NFL history, and kept up his tremendous season by throwing for 268 yards and two touchdowns while bringing the Commanders back after trailing in the fourth quarter -- on the road.
Don't count the Commanders out, but also don't bank on them needing a great play in the final seconds to beat the Lions. This game will be on a short week too, so Washington will have to play a near-perfect game to win.
Buccaneers have reached their ceiling
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Hard to tell what the Buccaneers ceiling is, which is why it's hard to give a definitive answer. Since Todd Bowles took over as head coach, the Buccaneers have won the NFC South in three straight years, but are also 1-3 in the playoffs -- bowing out of the wild-card round twice.
Sunday's loss to the Commanders could have gone either way, and there was a good chance the Buccaneers win in overtime if Zane Gonzalez's kick bounces the other way when it hit the crossbar. Baker Mayfield is one of the best quarterbacks in the conference, Bucky Irving is the next star running back, while Chris Godwin will be back to join Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan at wide receiver.
This Buccaneers team still has the pieces in place to make a deep playoff run, which is why it's hard to determine their ceiling. This question may be better off being pushed back to next year.
Eagles defense will be the reason they win a Super Bowl
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The Eagles defense was the reason they beat the Packers today, holding a Green Bay offense to a season-low 10 points and forcing three interceptions by Jordan Love. This has been on par with what Philadelphia's defense has been all year, as the unit finished second in points allowed per game (17.8) and first in yards allowed per game (278.4).
Even with the injury to Nakobe Dean, the Eagles defense didn't miss much of a beat. The Packers scored just twice on nine possessions and had only 302 yards of offense. They also turned the ball over four times, three by the offense. With the Eagles offense being inconsistent throughout the game, the defense needed to step up.
If the Eagles do win the Super Bowl, the defense will be the reason why. The unit has been consistently good all season, and arguably the best in the league.
Packers are still a Super Bowl contender in 2025
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
The Packers had the second-youngest playoff roster in NFL history (behind only last year's team), yet didn't have the look of a team that could make a deep playoff run all season. When the Packers faced any team at their level, they failed to win. Green bay was 0-6 against teams that finished with 11+ wins this season, a poor sign for a team that was supposed to be amongst the elite in the NFC.
The truth behind the Packers? They were a third-place team in their division that beat up on the bad teams and couldn't beat the good teams. They did improve their win total in each of the last three seasons, but this year was supposed to be more than just being a No. 7 seed and trying to make a Cinderella playoff run.
The roster improved, but the wins against the elite teams were nonexistent. Green Bay has to start collecting victories against Detroit, Philadelphia, and Minnesota if the Packers want to be on their tier. They just weren't able to do it this year.
Jordan Love is still talented. The offense and defense are top-10 units, but just came up small against really good teams. That will have to change in 2025.
Broncos were one of the seven best teams in AFC
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
The Broncos deserved to be in the playoffs as a No. 7 seed, a reward for their surprising 10-win season. They finished with a better record than the Bengals and were in the playoff race since October. The key word here is deserved.
The reality? The Broncos weren't one of the seven best teams in the AFC, and that's okay. The Bengals were a better team than the Broncos, but didn't make the playoffs because of their slow start to the year. Give credit to the Broncos for standing tall and making the postseason, despite losing to the Bengals as Cincinnati was making a late playoff push.
The Bengals would have given the Bills a better game for four quarters, but the Broncos were the team playing Buffalo -- because they deserved to by virtue of having a better record. The Broncos could be better next seaosn and not make the playoffs, much like the Bengals were this year.
Credit to the Broncos for making the playoffs. They weren't one of the conference's seven best teams.
James Cook proved he should have been a Pro Bowler
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Cook has been quietly good all season and his efforts have gone unnoticed. When Cook was a Pro Bowl snub, the Bills running back let it be known on social media he was omitted from making the Pro Bowl for a second straight year.
Cook had a point to prove in Buffalo's wild card win over Denver, and did just that. He finished with 23 carries for 120 yards and a touchdown, doing most of his damage in the first half when Buffalo's offense was struggling to put up points. Cook had 13 carries for 78 yards in the first half, averaging 6.0 yards per carry, as Buffalo only led 10-7 at halftime.
Thanks to what Cook was able to do in the first half, Josh Allen was able to settle in and take over the game in the second half. The Bills may not have been able to blow out the Broncos without Cook running the ball as well as he did in the opening 30 minutes.
Cook led the NFL with 16 rushing touchdowns and had 1,009 yards on 4.9 yards per carry. The running back field was crowded in the AFC, but there should have been a Pro Bowl spot for Cook.
Broncos defense hasn't been a top-10 defense in weeks
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The Bills score 30 points off a lot of teams, as evidenced by the number of 30+ point games they put up this season. The Broncos defense was supposed to contain them, a unit that allowed just 18.3 points per game (third in NFL) and 317.1 yards per game (seventh in NFL).
The reality regarding the Broncos defense? The unit hasn't been a top-10 unit since the start of December. Take out the Week 18 game where the Chiefs rested their starters, and the Broncos have allowed 22.0 points per game (13th in NFL) and 362.2 yards per game (24th in NFL). Basically, the potential blowout by the Bills was coming. This is including the playoff loss on Sunday.
The Broncos defense faltered toward the end of the year, as they made the playoffs off the strength of Bo Nix's arm and the resurgent offense. This unit is still very good, but Sean Payton certainly had a right to be mad at Vance Joseph on Sunday.
