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The divisional round of the playoffs is here and the intensity has turned up a notch. There are rematches, high-tier quarterback duels and some absolute slugfests in the trenches. 

However, when you get to this round of the playoffs, most games come down to smaller matchups and battles that'll have massive ripple effects in the flow of the divisional round. So, what are those key matchups? Let's dive in, starting with the Saturday games.

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

Key matchup: The Broncos' run game vs. the Bills run defense

The obvious matchups will be the Bills' offensive line and run game against the Broncos' defensive line and their ability to defend gap scheme runs, but I'm flipping it to the trenches on the other side of the ball. While I think the Broncos can, and will try to run the football against this light Bills' defensive front, they've struggled to move the ball on the ground since JK Dobbins got hurt. 

Since week 11 (the first week without Dobbins), the Broncos are third in the NFL in Yards Before Contact per carry at 1.27 -- very good! However, their Yards After Contact per Carry sits at 2.67, which is 31st in the NFL -- not as good! Dobbins was setting the pace for Rushing Yards over Expected per carry at 1.1, but R.J. Harvey and Jaleel McLaughlin didn't even crack a positive number. 

I think Harvey is a very fun back and can be a quality starter in the NFL, but this year he's struggled to use his vision to maximize runs. He's the most explosive back on the roster, but his vision sometimes sets him back. The Bills can be beaten on the ground, as evidenced by the Jaguars 154 yards on 23 carries, but Harvey, McLaughlin (and Nix to an extent) will have to keep the Broncos out of obvious dropback scenarios.

If they do have to throw the ball in obvious passing situations, I would keep an eye on Bo Nix's post-snap processing. The rotations and disguises Sean McDermott and DC Bobby Babich threw out against Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence last Sunday were some of the best I've seen from his unit in years, sending pressures while still keeping a lid on explosive plays.

The funny thing about the Broncos' offense is that over the back half of the season, Nix has improved a lot despite the run game falling off a cliff. From weeks 11-18, Nix had a 0.18 EPA per dropback (fifth in the NFL among qualifying QBs) and a 48.6% Success Rate (ninth in the NFL among qualifying QBs). For comparison, from weeks 1-10 Nix had a 0.04 EPA per dropback (20th in the NFL among qualifying QBs) and 41.3% Success Rate (31st in the NFL among qualifying QBs). Nix has improved a lot when it comes to sniffing out presnap blitzes and undressing them, but I worry about him doing too much in a playoff scenario. That's why I think if Denver wants to make the AFC Championship game, their run game will have to find life once again.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

Key matchup: Christian McCaffrey vs. Seattle's second level defenders

Seattle's run defense is one of the best, if not the best in the NFL. They're also uniquely suited to slow down San Francisco's run game, because they weaponize run blitzes. With San Francisco's heavy zone-based rushing attack, Seattle is able to get free runners via LB Drake Thomas blitzing or DB Nick Emmanwori coming from his nickel spot. On top of that, DTs Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy and Jarran Reed are not only able to two gap in the run game, but make plays and stuff runs off of that. 

With TE George Kittle on IR with a torn achilles, I think San Francisco is going to try and lean on RB Christian McCaffrey more than they ever have before. McCaffrey did a fantastic job maximizing all of the small windows he had in the run game, and when the Niners pass the ball McCaffrey is such a threat on option routes and checkdowns that he can pull defenders out of dig windows for QB Brock Purdy to exploit.

However, the last time these two teams played, Seattle was very comfortable with letting the others for the 49ers try and beat them, focusing in on McCaffrey and Kittle in the passing game. The Seahawks played man coverage on 23.8% of their snaps in week 18, the 2nd-highest mark of the season for their defense and well above their 15.2% man coverage rate this entire season (per TruMedia). Purdy on those man coverage dropbacks? 6/8 on 9 dropbacks, 24 yards and a -0.43 EPA per play. 

With Seattle having a rotation of CB Devon Witherspoon, Emmanwori and other fast players in the middle of the field, McCaffrey had six catches for 34 yards, and not a single target against man coverage.

WR Ricky Pearsall's potential return to the lineup should help ease some of the strain on Purdy and McCaffrey when the Seahawks go to man coverage, but you have to lean on your stars in the playoffs. If Seattle slows down McCaffrey on the ground and through the air, it'll be hard to put points on the board for San Francisco.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots

Sunday, 3 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)

Key matchup: Both offensive lines' communication in drop-back scenarios

I couldn't choose which offensive line to focus on with these key matchups, so happy divisional round weekend! We're doing both! Let's start with the higher seed, the New England Patriots, specifically on the left side of their offensive line. While I think rookies Will Campbell and Jared Wilson have their moments (in the run game in particular), I do think their communication and poor play in pass protection is going to be a major issue on Sunday. Houston poses a problem not just because they have arguably the best defensive line in the league, but it's how they win that matters just as much. EDGEs Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter aren't going to try and win with bend around the corner, they're going to try and run through you with power and length.

In Will Campbell's losses as a pass protector this year, you've seen the lack of length come up, but not in the way that you think. Because he doesn't have long arms, he has to try and beat guys to the spot on the edge and not give up the outside shoulder, leaving him susceptible to inside moves and leaving his chest open. On top of that, it strains communication between him and Jared Wilson (who also struggles with power), and they give up pressures and sacks off stunts a lot. Expect Houston to try and exploit that matchup and force those two to communicate in obvious dropback scenarios.

Flipping it to Houston, the Texans' offensive line has to communicate well on stunts because QB CJ Stroud still hasn't looked comfortable under pressure. Against Pittsburgh, when Stroud was pressured he took three sacks, threw a pick and had a -1.66 EPA per dropback. That EPA per dropback is the worst mark of any quarterback in the Wild Card round…since 2015. Stroud was crumbling under pressure, not showing any willingness to scramble or just let a play die. Stroud was damn near flawless when he wasn't pressured, but if the Texans aren't able to communicate on pass rush games or come up with answers for the looks New England is going to send them, it might look like the Steelers game once again.

How both teams' offensive lines communicate could be the difference between going home and playing for a Super Bowl.

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears

Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET on NBC

Key matchup: Both defenses defending multiple TE sets

If you want to find out where this game is going to be won, watch both these teams when they're in 12 and 13 personnel. Both of these teams are shredding teams when they force them into base defenses, but do it in different ways. We've talked ad nauseum about the Rams in 13 personnel, but I think what gets lost in that is how successful the Rams have been as a rushing offense out of 13 personnel, and how it deviates from what head coach Sean McVay has normally done. 

This Rams team is still one of the most successful rushing teams in the NFL in 13 personnel, but they're mainly running duo and more gap-based runs, instead of the wide zone schemes McVay became known for. 

With RBs Kyren Williams and Blake Corum running at defenses and linebackers effectively, their 13 personnel can pull linebackers out of dig windows, which is more than enough space for QB Matthew Stafford to hammer middle of the field targets to WRs Puka Nacua and Davante Adams and TEs Terrance Ferguson, Colby Parkinson and Tyler Higbee. Ferguson is a fascinating player in this offense, because he can separate downfield against linebackers and open up the congested areas for Nacua. The Bears play a lot of man coverage (28.8% man coverage is eighth-highest in the NFL in the regular season), so this game feels like the reason why the Rams went out and signed Adams, to provide some easy separation vs man coverage.

Flipping it riverside, the Bears have the ability to give defensive coordinators nightmares when they're in 12 personnel. Since week 12, they're fifth in the NFL in EPA per play out of 12 personnel, and when QB Caleb Williams throws the ball out of 12 personnel they want to attack downfield. Dual threats like TEs Colston Loveland and Cole Kmet pose opposing defenses problems with how they want to defend the Bears. Because both are willing blockers and able to win in the run game, you have to play this team with the ability to defend the run when they're in tight. However, the drawback is both will eat your linebackers alive in passing situations, Loveland especially is a problem with his ability to separate downfield, and when Caleb Williams is throwing the ball downfield he has the ability to crush teams.

The Bears could draw inspiration for how to attack this Rams defense from Ben Johnson's old team, the Detroit Lions. Despite the Lions losing, WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams had two of the three best performances by Yards per Route Run given up by the Rams defense across the entire season. With as much quarters as the Rams play, there should be opportunities to hit big posts over the top and force the Rams cornerbacks to try and run with Burden, WR Rome Odunze and others for Chicago. Expect a lot of points in this one, especially if neither team can win against 12 and 13 personnel.