Offensive players, excluding quarterbacks, and defensive players to keep an eye on have already been covered in previous articles. Now, the focus now turns to passers.
Every season, a different set of players face a crossroads or have something to prove for a variety of reasons. The most common reasons are related to age, contract or salary cap concerns, injury, performance or off-the-field issues. Ten such quarterbacks to watch during the 2024 season are below.
The Jets expected to make the playoffs last season after acquiring Aaron Rodgers from the Green Bay Packers right before the 2023 NFL Draft. Things abruptly changed for the Jets once Rodgers was lost four offensive plays into the season when he tore his left Achilles. Rodgers, who will be 41 in December, had a subpar season the last time he saw significant NFL action, which was in 2022. After winning back-to-back NFL MVP awards, Rodgers' 12 interceptions were his most since 2008 when he first became a starter. He threw 13 interceptions combined over the 2019 through 2021 seasons. Rodgers' 91.1 passer rating was the lowest in his career. His 217.4 passing yards per game were also a career low. Rodgers being able to hold off Father Time, where his 2022 season is an anomaly, will likely put the Jets in the playoffs for the first time in 13 years, ending the longest postseason drought in North America professional team sports. Otherwise, his Hall of Fame career could come to a close.
It became apparent pretty quickly that Sean Payton and Russell Wilson were like oil and water after Payton was hired to coach the Denver Broncos last year. The marriage of convenience between the two came to an end in March when the Broncos released Wilson.
The Broncos are contending with $85 million in dead money, a salary cap charge for a player no longer on a team's roster, because of Wilson's departure. The $53 million for 2024, which includes Wilson's fully guaranteed $39 million 2024 base salary from the five-year, $245 million contract extension he signed in August 2022, is an NFL record of dead money related to an individual player in one league year. The other $32 million is a 2025 salary cap charge for the Broncos.
Wilson signed a one-year deal with the Steelers right after his release for the league-minimum $1.21 million because of the salary guarantee from his Broncos deal. He could have a short lease if he falters early on with Justin Fields waiting in the wings. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin didn't hesitate in 2022 to bench an ineffective Mitch Trubisky for Kenny Pickett, 2022's 20th overall pick, four games into the season. Wilson, who turns 36 at the end of November, suffering the same fate as Trubisky because of his play would effectively end his days as an NFL starting quarterback.
Daniel Jones seemed to have taken a big step forward in 2022 when he was one of the NFL's best dual-threat quarterbacks. The Giants made the playoffs and won a wild-card game against the Minnesota Vikings. That led to Jones getting a four-year, $160 million deal (worth up to $195 million thanks to incentives and salary escalators) with $104 million in guarantees, of which $81 million was fully guaranteed at signing.
Jones regressed last season before he was sidelined for the duration in Week 9 with a torn ACL in his right knee. In six games Jones played, the Giants only won once. Jones completed 67.5% of his passes for 909 yards while throwing for two touchdowns with six interceptions to post a 70.5 passer rating.
The Giants explored moving up from the sixth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft to take a quarterback. Instead, this pick was used on LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers to give Jones a dynamic weapon in the passing game. A primary focus in free agency was upgrading the offensive line by signing offensive tackle Jermaine Eluemunor and offensive guard Jon Runyan Jr.
The Giants will likely move on from Jones if he can't take advantage of these key offensive upgrades. It wouldn't be surprising for the Giants to bench a healthy Jones at some point with him looking more like he did in 2023 than in 2022 because $23 million of his $30 million 2025 base salary is guaranteed for injury. On the fifth day of the 2025 league year (March 15, 2025), $12 million of the $23 million becomes fully guaranteed. The Giants would pick up $19.395 million of 2025 salary cap room from parting ways with Jones next March as there would $22.21 million in dead money rather than his $41.605 million 2025 cap number.
It seems odd for someone to be on the hot seat who signed a four-year, $180 million contract in March, averaging $45 million per year, with $100 million of guarantees ($90 million fully guaranteed). That's because the Falcons surprisingly used the eight overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft to take quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
Kirk Cousins was arguably playing the best football of NFL career when he tore his right Achilles last season in a Week 8 contest against the Green Bay Packers. The 13-year veteran, showing ill effects from the Achilles, could make for a short stint in Atlanta. Cousins would probably be willing to waive his no-trade clause with Penix being an easy option to replace him in the starting lineup. A 2025 trade would mean the Falcons paid Cousins $62.5 million for one year given that his deal has a $50 million signing bonus. The Falcons would have $37.5 million of dead money in 2025 from the signing bonus by dealing Cousins next year. This will be a moot point in 2025 if Cousins returns as the quarterback he has consistently been over the last few seasons.
The Browns gave up 2022, 2023 and 2024 first-round picks, a 2022 fourth-round pick, a 2023 third-round pick and a 2024 fourth-round pick for Deshaun Watson and a 2024 sixth-round pick in March 2022, expecting to have an elite quarterback. Watson received an unprecedented fully guaranteed five-year, $230 million contract in connection with the trade.
Being rusty in 2022 was anticipated with Watson missing the first 11 games of the regular season serving a suspension for violating the NFL's Personal Conduct Policy and sitting out the 2021 season after demanding a trade. Watson didn't resemble the quarterback last season, who led the NFL with 4,823 passing yards and set a Texans franchise record for touchdown passes (33) in 2020. He was limited to six games because of a fracture to the glenoid bone in his throwing (right) shoulder. Watson completed 61.4% of his passes for 1,115 yards with seven touchdowns and four interceptions. His passer rating was 84.3.
Watson regaining some semblance of his 2020 form should make the Browns Super Bowl contenders. Even if Watson doesn't, his contract and the two restructures for salary cap purposes ensure that he will be in Cleveland next season. It's hard to imagine there would be a trade market. Watson has 2025's largest cap number at $72.935 million. Cleveland would have $118.935 million in 2025 dead money with the use of a post-June 1 designation to release Watson where the $53.835 million of bonus proration from his 2026 contract year and the fake/dummy 2027 and 2028 contract years would be a 2026 cap charge. That's because Watson's fully guaranteed $46 million 2026 base salary would be attributed to 2025 under the NFL's salary cap rules.
Derek Carr didn't make a good first impression in New Orleans as the Saints were 5-7 after 12 games. There was buyer's remorse with Carr's four-year, $150 million deal, averaging $37.5 million per year and containing $100 million in guarantees, where $60 million was fully guaranteed at signing. He made a strong closing statement. In the final five games, Carr completed 74% of his passes for 1,117 yards while throwing 14 touchdowns and two interceptions for a 118.9 passer rating. The Saints won four of those games to finish with a 9-8 record.
Carr has nothing to worry about if he can build on that closing statement. A third season in New Orleans will be in jeopardy with inconsistent play where the Saints miss the playoffs for a fourth straight year. The Saints would clear $30 million in 2025 cap space by releasing Carr in the offseason with a post-June 1 designation in which the dead money would be taken over two years. There would be a $28.674 million cap charge in 2026 relating to Carr in addition the $21.458 million of dead money for 2025, which would include his $10 million fifth day of the 2025 league year roster bonus (next March 15) that's already fully guaranteed.
Efforts for a new contract this preseason were rebuffed by Seahawks general manager John Schneider. Geno Smith was interested in addressing his contract because the quarterback market has dramatically changed since he signed a three-year, $75 million deal, averaging $25 million per year worth up to $105 million through salary escalators, in March 2023.
Smith was solid in 2023 but didn't quite measure up to his 2022 season when he threw for a franchise-record 4,282 yards with 30 touchdowns while connecting on 69.8% of his passes for a 100.9 passer rating and was named the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year. His completion percentage dropped 5.1%. He threw 10 fewer touchdown passes and his passer rating slipped to 92.1.
Seattle missing the playoffs with a 9-8 record after starting 5-2 led to longtime coach Pete Carroll's departure. New coach Mike Macdonald hired Ryan Grubb from the University of Washington as his offensive coordinator. An inability to thrive in Grubb's offensive system could make 2024 Smith's last season in Seattle.
The Panthers didn't do Bryce Young any favors by including the offense's most explosive weapon, wide receiver DJ Moore, in the trade with the Chicago Bears to move up to take him first overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. Young completed 59.8% (31st in the NFL) of his passes for 2,877 yards with 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions for a 73.7 passer rating (32nd in the NFL) while being sacked 62 times. Only Sam Howell was sacked more than Young last season. Young's struggles were magnified with C.J. Stroud, the player taken right after him in the 2023 NFL Draft by the Texans, having a historic season as a rookie quarterback.
Buccaneers offensive coordinator Dave Canales was hired as Panthers coach due to his work with Baker Mayfield last season and Geno Smith in 2022 as the Seattle Seahawks quarterbacks coach. The interior of the offensive line was revamped in free agency. Robert Hunt was given a five-year, $100 million contract and Damien Lewis received a four-year, $53 million deal to play right and left guard, respectively. Wide receivers who can create better separation were brought in. Diontae Johnson was obtained from the Steelers for cornerback Donte Jackson and a 2024 sixth-round pick. The Panthers traded up to take Xavier Legette with the last pick of 2024's first round (32nd overall). A second-round pick was used on Jonathon Brooks, the top running back in the draft.
Panthers owner David Tepper hasn't shown much patience, particularly with head coaches. That could extend to Young if he doesn't take a major step forward, considering the offseason was focused on surrounding him with better talent. Without dramatic improvement this season, the Panthers could be in a position to draft Young's replacement or bring in a veteran quarterback to challenge him for his starting job.
The Chicago Bears securing the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, which was used to select USC quarterback Caleb Williams, thanks to the trade with the Panthers last year, made Justin Fields expendable. The trade market for Fields, who was 2021's 11th overall pick, was softer than the Bears were anticipating. Fields was dealt in the middle of March to the Steelers for a conditional sixth-round pick that converts to a fourth-round pick if he takes 51% of Pittsburgh's offensive snaps during the 2024 season. The fully guaranteed $25.664 million fifth-year option in 2025 for Fields was rightfully declined. The Steelers got more of a look at Fields with the first-team offense during preseason than anticipated because of Russell Wilson's calf injury. There is a belief that it is just a matter of time before Fields gets an opportunity to demonstrate whether he can be a long-term solution for the Steelers at quarterback.
The Vikings signed Darnold to a one-year, $10 million deal to be a bridge quarterback. At some point this season, a transition to 2024's 10th overall pick J.J. McCarthy was expected to take place. That isn't going to happen. McCarthy is out for the year after tearing the meniscus in his right knee during the preseason opener against the Las Vegas Raiders. Darnold is going to get the entire season to demonstrate to other teams that he can be a starting quarterback after failed attempts with the New York Jets as 2018's third overall pick and the Carolina Panthers in 2021.
