Breaking down NFL playoff picture, plus Week 17 grades and Rams-Falcons predictions for Monday night

Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

This is it. This is your final newsletter of 2025 and we're going to go out with a bang, which is the opposite of what Pittsburgh did on Sunday. The Steelers had a chance to clinch the AFC North and all they had to do was beat the Browns and they couldn't pull it off, which means they'll now have to beat the Ravens on Sunday night if they want to make the playoffs. 

Speaking of the playoffs, with just one game left in Week 17, 12 of the NFL's 14 postseason spots have been clinched with one spot still up for grabs in each conference. We'll be breaking down the playoff picture in today's newsletter, plus we'll be handing out our weekly grades (Spoiler alert: The Steelers got a D), and we'll be taking a look at the biggest overreactions from the weekend. 

As always, here's your reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown. 

1. NFL Week 17 grades: Browns get high mark for pulling off shocking win over Steelers

The NFL semester is almost over, but before that happens, we've got another week of grades. With that in mind, let's check out the grades from three notable games that were played Sunday:

Browns 13-6 over Steelers (full recap)

• Steelers takeaway: The Steelers had a chance to clinch the AFC North title with a win, but instead they choked. With DK Metcalf out due to a suspension, Aaron Rodgers and the offense struggled to move the ball on a muddy day in Cleveland. Rodgers had multiple chances to put his team in a position to win, but the Steelers seemed to come up empty on almost every big play: They went 0-for-3 on fourth down, including a last gasp pass from Rodgers to Marquez Valdes-Scantling that fell incomplete on a fourth-and-goal from Cleveland's 7-yard line with just 21 seconds left to play. Due to this loss, the Steelers' season now comes down to one game: Pittsburgh (9-7) face the Ravens in Week 18 with the winner heading to the playoffs and the loser headed home. Grade: D
• Browns takeaway: The Browns won't be making the playoffs this year, but this probably felt like a playoff win. In what was easily the most stunning win of Week 17, the Browns defense punched the Steelers in the mouth and Pittsburgh never recovered. With the game on the line in the second half, the Browns bullied the Steelers: They held them to zero points while sacking Aaron Rodgers twice over the final two quarters. Rodgers was under constant pressure throughout the game which led to an erratic performance where he only completed 53.4% of his passes. Shedeur Sanders had his ups and downs, but he led the Browns to 10 points during a nearly perfect first quarter that saw him throw for 101 yards and a TD, and that was all Cleveland needed. This was a monumental win by a Browns (4-12) team that did a huge favor for the Ravens by winning this game. Grade: A-

Eagles 13-12 over Bills (full recap)

• Eagles takeaway: This was a defensive masterpiece by an Eagles team that totally shut down Josh Allen for 3.5 quarters. The Eagles had Allen on the run for most of the game and although the Bills QB can sometimes thrive when he's in that situation, he took a beating against Philadelphia, getting sacked five times. The Eagles offense struggled to move the ball for most of the game, but did just enough during a first half where Jalen Hurts threw for 110 yards and a touchdown. The Eagles can't be thrilled with their offensive performance, but they did go on the road and beat a Super Bowl contender, which is the kind of win that should give them plenty of confidence come playoff time. Grade: B
• Bills takeaway: After struggling through three quarters, Josh Allen put on his Superman cape in the fourth quarter, but it still wasn't enough. Allen threw for 102 yards and rushed for two touchdowns in the final quarter, but he came up one play short when he missed a wide-open Khalil Shakir on what would have been a game-winning two-point conversion. Allen's late-game heroics were needed because Buffalo struggled to move the ball for the first three quarters. The only reason Buffalo was in the game is because the Bills defense came through with one of its most spectacular performances of the season. The Bills held the Eagles to just 16 yards during a second half where Jalen Hurts didn't complete a single pass. If the defense plays this well in the postseason, the Bills could make a deep run in the playoffs, but first, they'll have to figure out how to win on the road. With this loss, the Bills have clinched a wild card spot, which means they'll be opening the postseason on the road. The Bills haven't won a playoff game away from Buffalo since 1992. Grade: B-

49ers 42-38 over Bears (full recap)

• Bears takeaway: Caleb Williams and the Bears offense went toe to toe with the high-powered 49ers, but Chicago's defense continues to be a concern, especially when it comes to stopping the run. The Bears surrendered 200 yards on the ground and they've now given up at least 175 yards in six of their 16 games this year and they've gone 3-3 in those six games. The defense got torched for nearly 500 yards, but the Bears still almost won thanks to an offense that's absolutely clicking right now, even without Rome Odunze. Williams seems to find a new favorite receiver every week, and this week, it was rookie Luther Burden, who went off for a career high 138 yards on just eight catches. Williams threw for 330 yards and that number could have been higher if not for a few drops and a few errant throws. The Bears (11-5) have proven all season that they can play with the best teams in the NFC and with their offense playing at such a high level, they could certainly be a dangerous team come playoff time as long as their defense can just make a stop or two. Grade: B-
• 49ers takeaway: One week after throwing five TD passes, Brock Purdy somehow topped himself. The 49ers QB threw a pick six with his first pass, but after that, he was nearly flawless against the Bears, throwing for 303 yards while totaling five touchdowns. The 49ers offense was firing on all cylinders against the Bears; Purdy got plenty of help from Christian McCaffrey who rushed for a season-high 141 yards. The 49es didn't have George Kittle, but they did have Ricky Pearsall back in the lineup and he provided a HUGE boost by catching five passes for a team-high 85 yards. The 49ers offense is getting hot at the right time. On the other side of the ball, the defense struggled for most of the night, but they did hold the Bears out of the end zone at the end of the game when it counted most. For most of the season, the 49ers (12-4) were an afterthought in the NFC West, but now, they're just one win away from clinching the division title and the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC. Grade: B

As for the other 24 grades we handed out in Week 17, you can check those out by clicking here. 

2. Overreactions from Week 17: Did Giants make a mistake beating the Raiders?

Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that's especially true when we're talking about the the NFL. With that in mind, Tyler Sullivan decided to take a look at several things that happened in Week 17 to decide if we're all overreacting. 

Statement:  Steelers effectively lost the AFC North with loss to Browns.  
Overreaction or reality: Reality. Pittsburgh technically still has an opportunity to claim the division title with a win at home next week against the Ravens. That said, it feels like the Steelers effectively let it slip through their fingers in Week 17 with this loss to Cleveland. Even if Baltimore turns to Tyler Huntley with Lamar Jackson still injured, the veteran showed us this week that he's more than capable of entering a hostile road environment and putting together a winning performance. And if Derrick Henry keeps his current pace going, it'll be an uphill climb for Pittsburgh.

Statement: Giants should have tanked against Raiders. 
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. It doesn't seem like the Raiders put their best foot forward leading up to this matchup, putting the likes of Brock Bowers and Maxx Crosby on injured reserve before Sunday. Some argue that New York should've followed suit and essentially tanked this game in order to secure the No. 1 pick. While I get the logic, I don't believe the Giants should've gone that route. While holding the top pick at the draft his extremely valuable, especially when you already have your franchise quarterback, the messaging behind such an effort doesn't set a great foundation for this rebuild. New York will have a high pick this spring regardless, and not laying down in this type of game will help them in the long run even if it stings in the moment.

Statement: Drake Maye locked up the MVP with historical day against Jets. 
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. Drake Maye was on another level in Week 17. He became the first quarterback in NFL history to complete at least 90% of his passes, while throwing for at least 250 yards and five touchdowns in a game. While it was awe-inspiring to behold, it may not have vaulted him up to securing the MVP award just yet. At DraftKings Sportsbook, Maye is still second in the MVP odds at +180 and looking up to Matthew Stafford, who is a -225 favorite at the moment. Stafford and the Rams play on Monday night, and if he struggles in that contest, it could open the door for Maye to leapfrog him. But this performance alone doesn't move the needle entirely in favor of Maye to win MVP. 

There are plenty more overreactions, and if you want to check those out, be sure to click here. 

3. 11 wild stats from Week 18: Patriots pull off historical turnaround

Every Sunday night, I get an email from our research department here at CBS Sports, and every Sunday, that email always includes some wild stats about the games that were just played. 

With that in mind, here are 11 crazy stats from Week 17: 

1. Patriots pull off historical turn around. The Patriots picked up their 13th win of the year on Sunday, which marks just the second time in NFL history that a team has won 13 games following a season where they lost 13 games. The only other team to pull off the feat was Peyton Manning's Colts in 1999.  
2. Drake Maye makes history. The Patriots QB completed 90.1% of his passes for 254 yards and five touchdowns making him the first QB in NFL history to finish a game with at least 250 passing yards, at least five TD passes and a completion percentage above 90%. Not even Tom Brady has ever done that. 
3. Steelers can't beat bad teams. With their loss to the Browns, the Steelers have now lost their last five games that they've played against teams that are at least eight games under .500. That's tied with the Buccaneers (1985-87) and Raiders (1993-2009) for the longest streak in NFL history.  
4. Raiders losing streak just won't end. The Raiders lost their 10th straight game on Sunday and if you combine that with their 10-game losing streak from last season, they're now just the fifth team in NFL history to have a losing streak of at least 10 games in back-to-back seasons. The 2016-17 Browns are the only other team to pull off that ugly feat over the past 40 years. 
5. Texans join exclusive club. The Texans clinched a playoff berth over the weekend after beating the Chargers, which makes them just the seventh team in NFL history to make the playoffs after an 0-3 start. Over the past 25 years, only two teams have made the postseason after an 0-3 start: The 2018 Texans and the 2025 Texans. 
6. Jets set unfortunate NFL record. The Jets got outscored by 102 points during the month of December, which is the worst point differential ever by a team in December. The Jets played four games during the month and got blown out all four times with losses of 34-10 (to the Dolphins), 48-20 (to the Jaguars), 29-6 (to the Saints) and 42-10 (to the Patriots). 
7. Trey McBride was the one bright spot for Arizona. With 10 catches against the Bengals, McBride now has 119 receptions on the year, which is the highest single-season total by a tight end in NFL history. McBride broke the old record of 116, which was set by Zach Ertz in 2018. 
8. Chimere Dike for rookie of the year? From returning kickoffs to returning punts to playing receiver, the Titans rookie has been doing it all for the team this year. Dike had 102 all-purpose yards on Sunday against the Saints and now has 2,371 on the season, which is the new NFL record for most all-purpose yards by a rookie. Dike broke the old record of 2,317, which was set by Tim Brown in 1988. 
9. Ugly second half for Jalen Hurts. The Eagles QB completed zero passes during the second half against the Bills marking the second time this season that he's had zero completions in the second half of a game. That makes the Eagles the first team since the 1987 Patriots to win multiple games in a single season without completing a pass in the second half. 
10. Sam Darnold makes history. With the Seahawks' win over the Panthers, Sam Darnold now has 13 wins as a starter this season and if you combine that with his 14 wins in Minnesota last year, that makes him the first QB in NFL history to win at least 13 games in back-to-back seasons with different teams. 
11. Packers punt on winning. The Packers didn't punt a single time during their 41-24 loss to the Ravens on Saturday, marking the THIRD time this season that they've lost a game where they didn't punt. That's the most losses ever in a single season since detailed records started being kept in 1950. The 2021 Chargers and 2024 Bengals are the only teams in that span that have even lost two games where they didn't punt.   

If you see any other fun facts, feel free to tweet them at me. 

4. Breaking down the NFL playoff picture: Four divisions still up for grabs

With just ONE FULL WEEK left to play in the season, there is still plenty to be decided in the NFL playoff race. There are still four divisions up for grabs and no one has clinched the No. 1 overall seed in either conference. With that in mind, here's where everything stands heading into tonight's game. 

Let's check out the AFC first: 
1. Broncos (13-3) -- AFC West champion
2. Patriots (13-3) -- AFC East champion
3. Jaguars (12-4) -- AFC South leader
4. Steelers (9-7) -- AFC North leader
5. Texans (11-5)
6. Chargers (11-5) 
7. Bills (11-5)
IN THE HUNT
Ravens (8-8)

AFC takeaway: Six of the seven playoff spots in the AFC have officially been clinched. The final spot will go to the winner of the Ravens-Steelers game on Sunday night. Although the Jaguars and Texans have both clinched a playoff spot, the AFC South is still up for grabs. The Jags will win the division title with a win over the Titans in Week 18. However, if the Jags lose, then Houston can win the division by beating the Colts. As for the No. 1 seed, the Broncos will claim that with a win over the Chargers in Week 18. If they stumble, then the Patriots could get the top seed with a win over the Dolphins. If the Patriots and Broncos were to both lose, the Jaguars could get the No. 1 seed by beating the Titans (The Jags, Broncos and Patriots are the only three teams still mathematically alive to earn the No. 1 seed). 

Now, let's check out the NFC: 
1. Seahawks (13-3) -- NFC West leader
2. Bears (11-5) -- NFC North champion 
3. Eagles (11-5) -- NFC East champion
4. Panthers (8-8) -- NFC South leader
5. 49ers (12-4)
6. Rams (11-4)
7. Packers (9-6-1)
IN THE HUNT
Buccaneers (7-9)

NFC takeaway: There are seven playoff spots in the NFC and six of them have now been clinched. The only spot still up for grabs will go to the winner of the NFC South (We'll cover the details of that race below). The No. 1 seed in the NFC and the NFC West title will go to the winner of the Seahawks-49ers game, which will be played on Saturday night at 8 p.m. ET. The Packers are the only team that has clinched a seed so far: Green Bay is locked into the seventh seed for the postseason. 

Monday night note: Yes, the Falcons are eliminated from the playoffs, but they could actually have some control over who wins the NFC South. As things currently stand, the Panthers-Buccaneers game on Saturday is NOT a winner-take-all game and that has everything to do with Atlanta. If the Falcons win their final two games, then Carolina will win the division no matter what happens in the Panthers-Bucs game (If the Falcons win out and the Bucs beat the Panthers, that would create a three-way tie at 8-9 and Carolina would win that). Due to that tiebreaker, the Buccaneers will definitely be rooting for the Falcons to lose. As for the Rams, if they win out, they can lock up the No. 5 seed in the NFC, which would mean they get to play the NFC South champion in the wild card round. 

If you want a closer look at the playoff picture, we've got that here.  

5. Monday night preview: Picks and best bets for Rams at Falcons

The final Monday night game of the regular season will be going down in Atlanta. The Panthers and Buccaneers will both be watching this game closely since the Falcons could still have an impact on the NFC South race as we explained above. As for the Rams, the 49ers' win over the Bears on Sunday night means that L.A. can no longer win the NFC West, so the Rams will be playing for seeding. The Rams will either get the fifth seed or the sixth seed and the difference is huge. If they're the fifth seed, they'll play the NFC South champ in the opening round of the playoffs. If they're the sixth seed, they'll hit the road to play Philadelphia or Chicago in the opening round. 

Even though one team in this game has already been eliminated from playoff contention, there's a lot on the line tonight. 

Here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into the team: 

• Why the Rams can win: The Rams have averaged 30.5 points per game this season, which makes them the highest-scoring team in the NFL and if they can turn this into a shootout, it's hard to imagine the Falcons keeping up (Atlanta has averaged just 20.5 points per game this year, which ranks in the bottom 10 of the NFL). It shouldn't be too hard for the Rams to get their offense going, especially on the ground. With Kyren Williams and Blake Corum leading the way, the Rams have the seventh-most rushing yards in the NFL this year and they'll be facing a Falcons team that has struggled to stop the run. If the Falcons go all in on stopping the run, then Matthew Stafford will likely make them pay. Basically, this should be a defense that the Rams can take advantage of as long as they don't turn the ball over (The Rams are 0-2 this season when they turn the ball over at least two times). 
• Why the Falcons can win: The Falcons are likely going to need a big game from Bijan Robinson if they want to pull off the upset tonight. It's not easy to run on the Rams, but if Robinson can get going, that will be a good sign for a Falcons team that's 3-1 this year when they rush for 150 yards or more. That seems to be the magic number on both sides, because the Rams are 1-2 this year when they give up 150 yards or more. If the Falcons are running the ball well, that will also chew up the clock, which will keep the Rams' high-powered offense off the field. 

You can get a full preview of the game from Jared Dubin by clicking here. 

If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props (via DraftKings). 

• ONE RB PROP I LIKE: Bijan Robinson OVER 4.5 receptions (-127): The Falcons running back has gone over this total in three of his past four games and he's been especially active during Atlanta's two-game winning streak. Robinson caught eight passes in the Falcons' Week 15 win over the Buccaneers and then he followed that up with seven catches in Week 16 against the Cardinals. Kirk Cousins will probably be facing a lot of pressure tonight from the Rams defense, and if that happens, it won't be surprising if he simply dumps the ball off to Robinson. 
  
• ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE TONIGHT: Team with the longest field goal: Falcons (+105): The Rams haven't really been using Harrison Mevis from long distance this year. In his seven games with the Rams, he only has two attempts from over 45 yards and he missed one of those, so Sean McVay may hesitate to use him from long range. On the other hand, Zane Gonzalez has made six kicks from 45 yards or long, including four kicks from outside 50. The Falcons won't hesitate if they have to use Gonzalez from long range, which actually makes it somewhat surprising that the Falcons side of this bet is getting plus money. 

If you're wondering how my props are doing this year, I'm 34-32 (14-17 on kicker props and 20-15 on all other props). Now, it's time for some picks.  

PICKS FOR 'MNF'

My pick: Rams 30-20 over Falcons
Dubin's pick: Rams 26-17 over Falcons
Prisco's pick: Rams 31-21 over Falcons
Tyler Sullivan: Rams 30-20 over Falcons
Jordan Dajani: Rams 23-20 over Falcons

Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, all seven of us are taking the Rams to win straight up, but only four of us are taking Los Angeles to cover as an 8.5-point favorite. 

6. Extra points: Ravens-Steelers will play in the final game of the regular season

It was a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. 

• Full Week 18 schedule released. The Ravens and Steelers have been tabbed to play in the final game of the season. Pittsburgh will host Baltimore on Sunday night with the AFC North title and the AFC's final playoff berth on the line. There's also a doubleheader on Saturday with the Buccaneers and Panthers playing at 4:30 p.m. ET followed by Seahawks-49ers at 8 p.m. ET. If you want to see the full Week 18 schedule, we've got that here. 
• Steelers likely won't have T.J. Watt in Week 18. The Steelers' star pass rusher has already missed three games due to a partially collapsed lung and it sounds like he's going to miss at least one more. According to Pro Football Talk, Watt is a long shot to play in Pittsburgh's winner-take-all game against the Ravens. If Watt can't go, that means the Steelers will be missing a top defensive star and a top offensive star on Sunday night. DK Metcalf won't be playing as he serves the final week of a two-game suspension. The Steelers also won't have tight end Darnell Washington, who broke his arm against the Browns. 
• Josh Allen undergoes X-rays. The Bills QB had to have his foot examined after the team's loss to the Eagles on Sunday. The good news for Buffalo is that Allen's X-rays were negative. With Buffalo locked into a wild card spot for the postseason, it won't be surprising at all if the Bills decide to rest Allen for their Week 18 game against the Jets. 
• Raiders and Maxx Crosby could he headed for divorce. The Raiders star wanted to play on Sunday against the Giants, but the team decided to place him on injured reserve due to a knee injury, which ended his season. The decision by the Raiders clearly upset Crosby, who shared a video over the weekend where he played basketball and did other physical activities on his supposedly injured knee. According to one report, Crosby will evaluate his future with the team after the season (Details here). With that in mind, we came up with some landing spots for Crosby and you can check those out here. 
• NFL Draft order after Week 17. The Raiders are in total control of the No. 1 overall pick following their loss to the Giants. If they lose to the Chiefs in Week 18 they'll clinch the top pick. On the other hand, if the Raiders in Week 18, that could open the door for the Giants or Jets to steal the top pick. If you want to know what the draft order looks like right now, we've got that here.