Colts' Anthony Richardson has been most boom-or-bust quarterback since merger; will he turn it around?

The Indianapolis Colts benched 2023 first-round pick Anthony Richardson for Sunday's night's game vs. the Vikings in favor of Joe Flacco on the heels of a 23-20 loss to the Texans where Richardson completed 10 of 32 passes and admitted to taking himself out for a play while getting fatigued. 

In some respects, you can't blame the Colts as Flacco is an upgrade right now and Indianapolis is 4-4 with playoff aspirations. On the other hand, Richardson needs more reps as he entered the NFL as one of the most raw, but talented quarterback prospects ever.

Up to this point, that's translated to arguably the most boom-or-bust season by a quarterback since the 1970 merger.

Richardson ranks last in the NFL in completion rate (44.4%), currently the lowest by any quarterback in a season since Bengals first-rounder Akili Smith in 2000, known as one of the biggest busts in draft history. In fact, this is not the type of company you want to keep if you're Richardson. Also on the list, Tim Tebow and JaMarcus Russell. The three others on the chart below started a combined four more games in their careers after these seasons.

Lowest completion rate in a season since 2000

Richardson has some other very troubling numbers here. His completion rate is at 48.4% with a clean pocket. 37.5% in the first half this year. 29.4% vs. man coverage. And an abysmal 26.5% vs. the blitz. He ranks last in the NFL in completion percentage over expectation (-12.5%). 

His season has been something of a "Dos Equis" commercial. He doesn't complete passes often, but when he does they go for a ton of yards.

He leads the NFL in yards per completion (16.2) this year, the highest in a season since 2000. He's taken our breath away with throws like this: 

So, in 2024, he's posting both the lowest completion rate and highest yards per completion in a season since 2000. That is the definition of boom or bust and one reason Indianapolis is making a change at quarterback for the time being.

He is the only qualified quarterback in the last 35 seasons with a completion rate below 50% and a yards-per-completion mark above 15.0. 

The last quarterback to finish last in completion rate, but first in yards per completion, as Richardson currently does, was Heath Shuler in 1994, 30 years ago. 

This is one of the most volatile quarterback profiles ever. The outcomes for his career are about as wide as the grand canyon, ranging as low as a Tebow or Russell to as high as Cam Newton or Michael Vick. 

Perhaps this stat sums it up best. He is the first player with a completion rate below 50% and a yards per completion of 15+ over a six-game span since Tebow from 2010-11. But the last to do that in a six-game span within the same season was Vick in 2001.

So can he turn it around? Absolutely. 

His 10-for-32 performance in Week 8 gives a glimpse into the issue of overreacting to a bad game. He was hardly as bad as it looked on paper and not deserving of being benched. He posted his lowest off-target rate of the year (12.5%) and a majority of the incompletions were not necessarily his fault. He easily could have had a bigger game. He had eight incompletions on throws 15+ yards downfield that were either dropped, defended or a miscommunication, the most of any quarterback in a game this season. 

He has the longest average pass length (12.8 yards downfield) by any quarterback in a season since Tebow in 2011 (12.9). That's one reason his completion rate is so low and why he needs more experience to learn better touch and how to take the checkdown, among other things. 

Can Anthony Richardson turn it around? 

Is the benching a mistake? I believe so. He needs reps to improve. He's thrown just over 600 passes and made 23 starts in his entire college and pro career. The Colts made a questionable commitment to start him in Week 1 as a rookie even though he was one of the most raw quarterback prospects ever. How can they change course now even though he's already had the pause button hit on his development several times. He's played in only 10 of 25 possible games in his NFL career and he's left four of those contests at some point due to injury. Here are some reasons for optimism:

• 23 starts in college/NFL career (10 in NFL)
• Tied for fewest college starts by first-round quarterback since 2000 (13)
• Week 8: lowest off-target rate of season (12.5%)
• Week 8: eight incompletions on throws 15+ air yards, dropped, defended or miscommunication (most of any QB in a game this season)
• 2024: Longest average pass length (12.8) since Tebow in 2011

The Colts don't have a Super Bowl ceiling with Flacco and he's not the long-term answer, yet they are risking not playing Richardson for the rest of the year and stunting his growth just so they can make the playoffs? Sounds like people are worried about their jobs more than what's best for the organization.