John Harbaugh heading to Giants, divisional round picks, best SB matchups

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Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

The divisional round of the playoffs will be kicking off this weekend, but the Giants have decided to completely overshadow that today with the hiring of John Harbaugh. The Giants have only been in the divisional round of the playoffs once over the past 14 seasons, which might explain why they were in the market for a new head coach.

In today's newsletter, we'll break down why it made sense for Harbaugh to take the Giants' coaching job, plus we'll be handing out some picks for this weekend's four playoff games. Oh, and we'll also be taking an early look at free agency by ranking the top 50 players who are expected to be available. So buckle up and get ready.

As always, here's your reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. Let's get to the rundown.

1. Giants finalizing deal with John Harbaugh: Former Ravens coach set to take over in New York

Less than 10 days after being fired, John Harbaugh already has a new job lined up. The 63-year-old is finalizing a deal to become the next head coach of the New York Giants in what will be the first coaching hire of the offseason. Harbaugh will be getting a five-year deal that's expected to pay him about $20 million per year.

Here's what you need to know about the Giants:

Harbaugh met with the Giants on Wednesday. Harbaugh spent the day at the Giants' practice facility meeting with multiple team executives, including co-owners Steve Tisch and John Mara. The team was hoping to get Harbaugh under contract before he left the facility, but that didn't happen. Harbaugh was scheduled to interview with the Titans on Thursday, and it looked like he would go through with it, but late Wednesday night, he decided to start negotiating a contract with the Giants. By midnight, the deal was essentially done.
Why this move makes sense for Harbaugh. The former Ravens coach was going to have plenty of suitors this offseason, including the Falcons, Titans and Dolphins, but he decided to take the Giant job and that decision likely had to do with the fact that he likes the building blocks he sees in New York. The team has several cornerstone players that you can build a franchise around, including Jaxson Dart, Malik Nabers, Cam Skattebo and Andrew Thomas on offense, along with Abdul Carter, Brian Burns and Dexter Lawrence on defense. The Giants also have the fifth overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, so Harbaugh will be walking into a situation where he'll be almost immediately be able to add another key player. He's also headed to a division that's in disarray. The Eagles just fired their offensive coordinator, the Cowboys can't figure out how to contend for a Super Bowl and the Commanders fell apart in 2025 after a magical 2024 season.
Why this move makes sense for the Giants. Since winning the Super Bowl in 2011, this team just hasn't done much. They were in need of a steady hand to command the ship and that's what they'll be getting in Harbaugh. The Giants only had two playoff appearances and one playoff win over the past 14 seasons, compared to Harbaugh, who has eight playoff appearances and eight playoff wins over that same span. After hiring two unproven head coaches in their last two searches (Joe Judge, Brian Daboll), the Giants decided to swing for the fences by hiring a former Super Bowl-winning head coach for the first time in franchise history.
Harbaugh is already building his staff. Todd Monken spent the past three seasons in Baltimore as Harbaugh's offensive coordinator and it appears that he's now the frontrunner to land the same job in New York. According to NFL Media, Monken is expected to be hired by the Giants and it will likely be as the team's offensive coordinator. This is one of the biggest hires that Harbaugh will make because being able to develop an offense around Jaxson Dart will go a long way to determine whether the Harbaugh hiring ends up working out in New York.

The Giants haven't had any stability at the head-coaching spot since Tom Coughlin left after the 2015 season, and now Harbaugh will be expected to turn things around in New York. That being said, the Giants are hiring a coach who was just fired and he was fired because he couldn't win very many big postseason games for the Ravens over his final few years in Baltimore. In seven full seasons with Lamar Jackson as his starter, Harbaugh never made the Super Bowl and he only made it to one AFC title game. This feels like a smart hire for the Giants, but there's definitely no guarantee that it's going to work out.

There are still eight other coaching jobs that need to be filled and we're tracking every candidate and interview for those jobs here.

2. Divisional viewing guide: Ranking the four playoff games from most watchable to least watchable

There are four NFL playoff games this weekend and if you don't have time to watch them all, that's OK, because we're going to tell you which ones you need to watch. We ranked every game in the divisional round from most watchable to least watchable. Zachary Pereles handled the rankings, and like the good company man that he is, he has the CBS game on top (And I actually agree with him).

Let's check out his rankings:

1. Bills at Broncos, 4:30 p.m. ET, Sunday (CBS): There will be questions about Josh Allen's legacy (some unfair) until he wins a Super Bowl. There will be questions about Bo Nix until he proves it on the playoff stage. This is what the playoffs are all about.

2. Rams at Bears, 6:30 p.m. ET, Sunday (NBC): Matthew Stafford and Caleb Williams have two of the most talented arms in the sport. We'll see some truly "wow" throws from both. Puka Nacua has blossomed into a superstar, and the Bears will have their hands full trying to limit him. Davante Adams has tormented Chicago before, too, going back to his days with the Packers. Then you add in the spectacle. Soldier Field was absolutely rocking last week, and it will be again. The temperatures are expected to dip into the single digits. It's going to be cold. It's going to be physical. It's going to be a whole lot of fun.

3. Texans at Patriots, 3 p.m. ET, Sunday (ABC/ESPN): I'll admit, there's a chance that this one is sloppy. Did you watch either of these teams' wild card games? But it could also be awesome. Drake Maye can be a superhero, and he might need to be against Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter, Derek Stingley Jr. and a monstrous Texans defense. There's a real chance for a back-and-forth affair between the potential MVP and the NFL's most dangerous defense. And while last week was ugly, don't discount CJ Stroud, who made some really impressive downfield throws, nor a Patriots defense that dominated Los Angeles. This is a heavyweight battle, and either Maye takes an impressive next step or the Texans continue to show their defense can carry them, even against high-level offenses.

4. 49ers at Seahawks, 8 p.m. ET, Saturday (Fox): The biggest reason this game lands at the bottom is that we have proof of concept: Less than two weeks ago, the Seahawks beat the 49ers 13-3 to win the NFC West and earn the NFC's No. 1 seed. It was, obviously, an important game, but not a particularly exciting one.

If you want to check out Zach's entire rankings, be sure to click here.

3. Key matchups for divisional round: Patriots rookie offensive lineman will have his hands full

Now that you know which games you need to watch this weekend, we're also going to let you know which matchups you should focus on. Pereles identified several key matchups that could decide the divisional round.

Let's take a look.

Patriots OT Will Campbell vs. Texans EDGEs Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. There's an argument about the "best" defense in the NFL, but the Texans have a straightforward path to being declared the "scariest," and it starts with Anderson and Hunter... Campbell has been mostly solid as a rookie blindside protector -- no easy task -- but he had a rough go of it in the Patriots' wild card win over the Los Angeles Chargers: five pressures and one sack allowed. Drake Maye took five sacks against the Chargers.
Rams WR Puka Nacua vs. Bears CB Jaylon Johnson. This section could really read "Nacua vs. any Bears cornerback," considering how much Sean McVay moves his star wide receiver around. He'll line up on the right side, the left side and in the slot. It's an enormous challenge for Chicago. Johnson will take on at least some of that challenge. He's given up a lot of big plays, but he's also made some of his own. Nacua will be his toughest test yet, not just in a coverage sense but in a tackling sense, too.
Bills RB James Cook vs. Broncos EDGEs Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper. Cook has been terrific this season. He gashes teams between the tackles and outside of them. Cook had 149 carries out wide (behind the tackles or around the edges), the most in the NFL, and his 45.6% success rate on those carries was fourth-highest (minimum 100 carries). Bonitto and Cooper are one of the NFL's premier pass-rushing duos, but the more important aspect Saturday could be how they hold up in the run game.

Pereles has a few more matchups that you'll definitely want to watch out for this weekend and you can check those out right here.

4. NFL divisional round playoff picks: Bills storm past Broncos, Patriots fend off feisty Texans

It's officially time for your favorite part of the Thursday newsletter, which is where I round up a few NFL writers and we all make some picks. Just in case you've forgotten, our writers are: Pete Prisco, Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan and myself. Last week, I mentioned that Prisco won the regular season picks title and I must have jinxed him, because he went 0-6 against the spread in the wild card round. It was the biggest choke of the playoffs by anyone not named Brandon McManus.

Prisco is back, though, and he's eager to prove that last week was a horrible fluke.

Anyway, you probably know how our predictions work by now: I'll give you one pick from each writer and then link you to the rest of their picks. That way, if you like their pick, you can click over and check out all of their divisional round predictions.

Pete Prisco -- Rams (+4.5) 33-27 over Bears. "The Rams didn't look great in beating the Panthers last week, but they found a way. The Bears rallied to beat the Packers. The concern here is both defenses. They have had issues as of late. The Rams have secondary issues. The Bears do as well. But the Bears don't rush the passer either. This will be a day where Matthew Stafford lights that defense up. Look for the Rams to win a tough road game in a shootout against Caleb Williams." Prisco's full picks for the divisional round here.
Tyler Sullivan -- Broncos (-1.5) 27-23 over Bills. "I think there's an opportunity here for Denver to enact some revenge from the playoff loss a year ago. First off, this game will be in their building, which wasn't the case last year. Over the regular season, the Broncos were 8-1 straight up at Mile High, and the added elevation does give them an added advantage. They also have the rest advantage after being on the bye as the No. 1 seed. Moreover, Denver has a defense capable of keeping Josh Allen at bay. They were a historically great unit at attacking the quarterback this season, piling up 68 sacks (tied for fifth-highest all-time)." You can find Sullivan's full divisional round picks here.
Jordan Dajani -- Patriots (-3.5) 20-16 over Texans. "The Texans defense has been a major storyline all year, but this Patriots defense had Justin Herbert seeing ghosts on every drop back. The Chargers converted just one third down last week, to go along with 207 total yards and three points. I have faith that Mike Vrabel can put enough pressure on C.J. Stroud, who was terrible on Monday night. His five fumbles tied an NFL postseason record, and he threw an interception as well. Additionally, star wideout Nico Collins suffered what appeared to be a nasty concussion. Will he be back in the lineup? We all knew at some point this Texans offense was going to let down this Super Bowl-caliber defense. That should be this week." Dajani's full slate of picks will be released Friday, but you can get a preview here.
John Breech -- Seahawks 19-16 over 49ers (+7.5). "The Seahawks are healthy, they're going to be rested and they're playing at home. On the other hand, the 49ers are not healthy, they're not going to be rested and they're not playing at home. So I should obviously take Seattle here, right? The 49ers were my preseason pick to win the Super Bowl, which makes it very easy for me to talk myself into a 49ers win here. Kyle Shanahan has NEVER lost in the divisional round (5-0) and Purdy has never lost in Seattle (4-0), but I just feel like San Francisco is too banged up to pull off the upset, especially after losing George Kittle." You can find the rest of my divisional picks here.

For more divisional round picks, you can check out our CBSSports.com picks page.

5. Ranking all 16 possible Super Bowl matchups with a historical rematch on top

With eight teams left in the NFL playoffs, there are still 16 possible Super Bowl matchups this year. And since we love ranking things here, I decided to rank all 16. However, we're only to go over the top four here, so let's get to it.

1. Rams vs. Patriots. If this Super Bowl happens, the NFL needs to cancel the MVP vote and just give the award to the quarterback who wins the game. Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye were the two MVP frontrunners for most of the year, and having the season end with these two quarterbacks dueling it out with the Lombardi on the line would be a must-watch game. ... If this game does happen, it would mark the third time the Rams and Patriots have met in the big game, tying Cowboys-Steelers for the most Super Bowl matchups in NFL history.

2. 49ers vs. Bills. The Super Bowl is on NBC this year, and I have to think there's nothing they would love more than having Josh Allen go up against one of the NFL's most storied franchises in the 49ers. Not only that, but the 49ers wouldn't exactly have home-field advantage here, because this game would be played just 115 miles away from where Allen grew up. The Bills quarterback was born and raised in Firebaugh, California, which is a roughly two-hour drive from Levi's Stadium, the site of Super Bowl LX.

3. Rams vs. Bills. This would be Matthew Stafford vs. Josh Allen, so it would need no other selling points. The last time these two teams were on the same field together was in December 2024, in a game that turned into a shootout, with the Rams winning 44-42. The best part of the game is that both quarterbacks put on a show: Allen became the first QB in NFL history to throw for three touchdowns and rush for three touchdowns while also passing for more than 300 yards. As for Stafford, he threw for 320 yards and two touchdowns in the win. Basically, the defenses wouldn't even need to show up for this game because it would be three straight hours of offensive fireworks.

4. Bears vs. Patriots. If there's one Super Bowl rematch you should be excited about possibly getting, it's this one. These two teams met back in Super Bowl XX, so it would be almost fitting if they were to meet once again on the 40th anniversary of that game. In the first meeting, the vaunted 1985 Bears defense helped Chicago dominate the Patriots in a 46-10 win. ... This would mark just the second time in Super Bowl history that two quarterbacks from the same draft class have faced off. The only other time it happened was in Super Bowl XIX, when Jim Plunkett led the Raiders to a win over Joe Theismann's Washington team, a game that featured two quarterbacks from the class of 1971.

If you want to see how I ranked all 16 matchups, you'll have to check out my full story here.

6. Ranking the top 50 free agents for 2026: This definitely isn't a star-filled class

With eight teams in the playoffs, that means 24 teams are NOT in the playoffs. Many of those teams are likely getting their early prep work done for free agency, which kicks off in March, so we thought we would do our own early prep by ranking the top 50 players expected to be available this year.

This ranking was handled by Garrett Podell, who locked himself in a small room for three days so he could get this done. Let's check out the top 10 players on his list:

1. Cowboys WR George Pickens
2. Bengals DE Trey Hendrickson
3. Colts QB Daniel Jones
4. Eagles DE Jaelan Phillips
5. Ravens C Tyler Linderbaum
6. Colts WR Alec Pierce
7. Packers LT Rasheed Walker
8. Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers
9. Jets RB Breece Hall
10. Packers LB Quay Walker

As I mentioned at the top, this is an early list. Some of these players might not hit free agency because they could sign an extension with their current team or they could get hit with the franchise tag or they could retire (I'm looking at you Aaron Rodgers), so a lot could still change between now and March.

If you want to get a good idea of who's going to be available when free agency starts, then you're definitely going to want to check out Garrett's full ranking of all 50 players here.