The Miami Dolphins made a big decision on Tuesday by reportedly replacing Ryan Fitzpatrick with Tua Tagovailoa ahead of their Week 7 bye. The move comes days after Fitzpatrick helped guide Miami to its second straight win -- and just a game out of first place in the AFC East. And while the upside of the turn to Tua justifies the Dolphins' unexpected change at quarterback, you might be wondering what history has to say about rookie QBs and how their teams tend to fare after they take over under center.
The short answer: It isn't pretty. Again, the Dolphins are in the unique position of both needing some juice for a rare AFC East title run and needing to see what they have beyond 2020, so unleashing Tagovailoa early on is probably the right move. But if you're going strictly off previous results of first-round QB takeovers, the numbers heavily suggest Miami is bound to sit out the playoffs altogether. Of course, that could all change if Tua hits the ground running (not literally speaking), but history is working against the Dolphins for sure.
We decided to comb through every one of the first-round QBs of the last 10 years, including this season, and chart what happened in their first start, which veteran they replaced, and how their respective teams finished the year. Here are the broad results:
Combined record of QB first career starts: 9-20-1
Combined record of teams with QB change: 168-282-3
Best team finish: 2012 Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
Worst team finish: Five-way tie (3-13)
Understand, most of all, that teams turning to rookie first-round QBs are often on track for bad seasons anyway; there's a reason they were able to draft a QB so high in the first place. In other words, it shouldn't be a surprise that the majority of teams who've made switches to first-round QBs ended up with losing records. Still, if anything, it should speak to the unlikely position in which the Dolphins have placed themselves by making the call at 3-3 and in the division race. Should the Tagovailoa swap work, it'll also stand out as one of the rare occasions where a first-round rookie successfully uplifted his entire team that same season.
Here's the full breakdown of first-round QBs to get their first career starts over the last 10 years:
2020
| QB | Team | Drafted | Replaced | First Start | Team Finish | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joe Burrow | No. 1 | Andy Dalton | Week 1 (L, 16-13) | TBD (1-4-1) | ||
Tua Tagovailoa | Dolphins | No. 5 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | Week 8 (TBD) | TBD | |
| Justin Herbert | Chargers | No. 6 | Tyrod Taylor | Week 2 (L, 23-20) | TBD (1-4) |
2019
| QB | Team | Drafted | Replaced | First Start | Team Finish | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kyler Murray | No. 1 | Josh Rosen | Week 1 (T, 27-27) | 5-10-1 | ||
Daniel Jones | No. 6 | Eli Manning | Week 3 (W, 32-31) | 4-12 | ||
| Dwayne Haskins | Washington | No. 15 | Case Keenum | Week 9 (L, 24-9) | 3-13 |
2018
| QB | Team | Drafted | Replaced | First Start | Team Finish | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baker Mayfield | No. 1 | Tyrod Taylor | Week 4 (L, 45-42) | 7-8-1 | ||
Sam Darnold | No. 3 | Josh McCown | Week 1 (W, 48-17) | 4-12 | ||
| Josh Allen | Bills | No. 7 | Nathan Peterman | Week 2 (L, 31-20) | 6-10 | |
| Josh Rosen | Cardinals | No. 10 | Sam Bradford | Week 4 (L, 20-17) | 3-13 | |
| Lamar Jackson | Ravens | No. 32 | Joe Flacco | Week 11 (W, 24-21) | 10-6 |
2017
| QB | Team | Drafted | Replaced | First Start | Team Finish | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mitchell Trubisky | No. 2 | Mike Glennon | Week 5 (L, 20-17) | 5-11 | ||
Patrick Mahomes | No. 10 | Alex Smith | Week 17 (W, 27-24) | 10-6 | ||
| Deshaun Watson | Texans | No. 12 | Tom Savage | Week 2 (W, 13-9) | 4-12 |
2016
| QB | Team | Drafted | Replaced | First Start | Team Finish | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jared Goff | No. 1 | Case Keenum | Week 11 (L, 14-10) | 4-12 | ||
Carson Wentz | No. 2 | Sam Bradford | Week 1 (W, 29-10) | 7-9 | ||
| Paxton Lynch | Broncos | No. 26 | Trevor Siemian | Week 5 (L, 23-16) | 9-7 |
2015
| QB | Team | Drafted | Replaced | First Start | Team Finish | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jameis Winston | No. 1 | Josh McCown | Week 1 (L, 42-14) | 6-10 | ||
Marcus Mariota | No. 2 | Zach Mettenberger | Week 1 (W, 42-14) | 3-13 |
2014
| QB | Team | Drafted | Replaced | First Start | Team Finish | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Blake Bortles | No. 3 | Chad Henne | Week 4 (L, 33-14) | 3-13 | ||
Johnny Manziel | Browns | No. 22 | Brian Hoyer | Week 15 (L, 30-0) | 7-9 | |
| Teddy Bridgewater | Vikings | No. 32 | Matt Cassel | Week 4 (W, 41-28) | 7-9 |
2013
| QB | Team | Drafted | Replaced | First Start | Team Finish | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EJ Manuel | Bills | No. 16 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | Week 1 (L, 23-21) | 6-10 |
2012
| QB | Team | Drafted | Replaced | First Start | Team Finish | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Andrew Luck | Colts | No. 1 | Peyton Manning | Week 1 (L, 41-21) | 11-5 | |
Robert Griffin III | Washington | No. 2 | Rex Grossman | Week 1 (W, 40-32) | 10-6 | |
| Ryan Tannehill | Dolphins | No. 8 | Chad Henne | Week 1 (L, 30-10) | 7-9 | |
| Brandon Weeden | Browns | No. 22 | Colt McCoy | Week 1 (L, 17-16) | 5-11 |
2011
| QB | Team | Drafted | Replaced | First Start | Team Finish | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cam Newton | No. 1 | Jimmy Clausen | Week 1 (L, 28-21) | 6-10 | ||
Jake Locker | Titans | No. 8 | Matt Hasselbeck | 2012 Week 1 (L, 34-13) | 6-10 | |
| Blaine Gabbert | Jaguars | No. 10 | Luke McCown | Week 2 (L, 32-3) | 5-11 | |
| Christian Ponder | Vikings | No. 12 | Donovan McNabb | Week 7 (L, 33-27) | 3-13 |