Falcons eyeing Tua Tagovailoa: Four possible landing spots for QB, who is set to be cut by Dolphins
The former first-round pick is going to have a new team this year
Tua Tagovailoa is on his way out in Miami, but he might have a new team to play for by the end of the day. The Atlanta Falcons are making a strong push to get a deal done with Tua and "a deal could come together soon," according to NFL Media.
The Dolphins announced on Monday that Tua will be released when the new league year starts on Wednesday, which means the 28-year-old quarterback will officially become a free agent at 4 p.m. ET on March 11. Under NFL rules, teams are allowed to contact a player if his team has announced that he's going to be released, so the Falcons are allowed to communicate with Tua's camp since the Dolphins announced this morning that they were going to release the quarterback.
If Tagovailoa ends up in Atlanta (or with another team), he's likely going to come cheap and that's because the Dolphins will be paying almost all of his salary. Tagovailoa has $54 million in guaranteed money owed to him for the 2026 season and the Dolphins have to pay that, but there are some offsets involved. If Tua signs a contract for the league minimum of $1.3 million this year, then the Dolphins will be on the hook for $52.7 million and his new team will pay the $1.3 million.
By cutting Tua, the Dolphins are now going to be stuck with an NFL-record $99.2 million dead cap charge. However, they're expected to make him a post-June 1 cut, a move that would allow them to split the $99.2 million hit over two seasons with a $67.4 million hit in 2026 and a $31.8 million dead cap hit in 2027.
Even though it's looking like Tua could end up in Atlanta, that's not quite a lock just yet. So what other teams would make sense? Let's take a look at four possible landing spots, starting with the Falcons.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons currently have Michael Penix Jr., but he comes with some serious question marks. For one, he just tore his ACL for the third time in his football career. Then there's the fact that even when he's healthy, he hasn't proven he can play consistently good football.
Although the Falcons expect him to be ready for Week 1, he's playing for a new coach and a new front office that didn't draft him, so it wouldn't be surprising at all if they brought in some competition for him. Falcons coach Kevin Stefanski has shown that he can win games even if he has to cycle through quarterbacks. He led the Browns to the playoffs during a 2023 season where Cleveland started five different players at quarterback. Stefanski is a smart offensive mind and if he thinks that Tua has more upside than Penix, then he would almost certainly be interested in bringing him to Atlanta.
Bringing in a left-handed QB to compete with a left-handed QB would be a plus for the Falcons because it means that Atlanta wouldn't have to make any huge changes from an offensive standpoint.
The man making the decisions in Atlanta's front office, Matt Ryan, was noncommittal when asked if Penix would be the starting QB in 2026. Ryan told CBS Sports NFL insider Jonathan Jones that Penix's role will be decided by new head coach Kevin Stefanski.
"Kevin's responsibility is to be the head coach of the football team and he's going to let you know who our starters are and who our starters are not. It's not my place to go in there," Ryan said during Super Bowl week.
So the QB job will be up to Stefanski, which certainly leaves the door open for Atlanta to bring in a new quarterback. As we mentioned above, Tua has shown the ability to thrive with the right weapons and Atlanta has a loaded offense with Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts and Drake London.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are currently in a nightmare situation at quarterback. They appeared to have their quarterback of the future in 2024 with Sam Darnold, who led them to a 14-3 record. The Vikings could have kept him last year, but instead of signing Darnold to a long-term deal (or even just franchise tagging him), they decided to roll the dice by going all in with J.J. McCarthy and that gamble totally backfired. In his first full year as a starter, McCarthy looked much closer to being a bust than someone who will eventually be the team's future franchise quarterback.
Say what you will about Tua, but he's definitely a much more polished quarterback than McCarthy. Although he's had some trouble staying healthy, Tua has been productive when he's on the field and he's been especially good when he's had the right weapons around him and the Vikings have a lot of offensive weapons to work with in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. Tua might have to compete with McCarthy for the job, but that's likely a competition where he would be feeling pretty confident.
And let's not forget, Tua's former offensive coordinator, Frank Smith, is now in Minnesota. Smith worked with Tua for four seasons in Miami and he's now the assistant head coach for the Vikings after being hired this year, so there would be some familiarity there.
The biggest question mark here is whether Tua would want to join a team that includes Brian Flores. The Vikings defensive coordinator was Tua's head coach in Miami for two seasons (2020-21) and the two definitely didn't get along. Tua ripped Flores' coaching style back in 2024 and it's not clear if the two sides have mended fences. If they have, then Minnesota seems like an enticing spot for the former fifth overall pick.
Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray has played his last down in Arizona, which means the Cardinals will almost certainly be in the market for a new starting quarterback this offseason. Jacoby Brissett, who started 12 games last season, is under contract for 2026, so the Cards do have a safety net -- and they could stick with him -- but it would make a lot more sense tor them to bring someone in.
New Cardinals coach Mike LaFleur just spent three seasons as the offensive coordinator with the Rams, where he got to work with one of the NFL's top pocket passers in Matthew Stafford. That's not Murray's playing style, but it definitely is what Tua prefers, which why he might be able to fit in with Arizona's new offense.
The Cardinals have some solid weapons, including Trey McBride, who's one of the best tight ends in the NFL. They have also have an impressive receiving duo in Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson. Tua was at his best in Miami when Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle were both on the field, so the Cardinals know what kind of production he's capable of when he has some weapons around him.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts did use the transition tag on Daniel Jones, but they might still need a quarterback to start the season because it's not clear if he'll be ready to play in Week 1.
Jones had a strong season during his first-year with Indianapolis, but it came to a painful end in December when he tore his Achilles. That's one of the most brutal injuries in sports and it wouldn't be surprising at all if he had to miss the first few weeks of the 2026 season. As a matter of fact, if you look at the recovery timeline for quarterbacks, it would be a borderline miracle if Jones were to play in Week 1. Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins both tore their Achilles in 2023 and they ended up playing in Week 1 of the following season, but both of those injuries happened early in the season (Cousins' injury came in Week 8 while Rodgers tore his Achilles in Week 1. Jones suffered his injury in Week 14).
This could be a situation where it would make sense for Tua to sign a one-year deal with the understanding that he'll be the starting QB until Jones is ready to play.
One thing working in Tua's favor is that the Colts have a set up where he could thrive: They have a solid offensive line, they have one of the best running backs in the NFL (Jonathan Taylor), they have a solid receiving group led by Michael Pittman and they have a solid young tight end in Tyler Warren. Tua could put up some big numbers in Indy.
Weather eliminates several QB-needy teams
You may have noticed that every team on this potential Tua list plays indoors. If Tua has proven one thing in his career, it's that he struggles when the weather gets cold, so it doesn't make much sense for him to play in a cold-weather city, which is why we don't have the Jets, Steelers or Browns listed here.
The final start of Tua's Dolphins' career came in a December loss to the Steelers where the kickoff temperature was 17 degrees. That dropped Tua's career record to 0-6 when the temperature is below 40. If I'm a team in a cold-weather city, I don't want Tua, and if I'm Tua, I don't want to play in a cold-weather city. For Tua, playing indoors will guarantee that he'll get perfect weather for at least eight games per year. Tua has an 8-4 career record when playing indoors (dome or retractable roof) with his last game coming in Week 8 against the Falcons, a day that saw him throw four touchdown passes in a 34-10 win.
