Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
The Super Bowl countdown is officially on. Super Bowl LVIII is just 12 days away, which means we're going to spend 12,000 words today breaking down the game. Actually, it turns out 12,000 words would almost be an entire book and I don't have time to write an entire book, so we're going to go with a slightly lower word count.
As far as the Super Bowl goes, we'll be looking at some early best bets in today's newsletter, plus we've got five early bold predictions.
As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. All right, let's get to the rundown.
1. Today's show: Early bets for Super Bowl LVIII
We're going to be talking about the Super Bowl every day between now and Feb. 11 and that starts with today's episode of the podcast. For today's show, our crew decided to make some EARLY best bets for Super Bowl LVIII.
Katie Mox was joined by Will Brinson along with R.J. White and Alex Selesnick, our two gambling gurus from SportsLine.
The crew covered several of their favorite early bets and we're going to look at a couple of those below.
- Selesnick: Chiefs (+1.5) to cover against 49ers. After watching the Chiefs pull off two straight playoff wins as an underdog, Selesnick isn't willing to bet against them in the Super Bowl. "The Chiefs have such a balanced offense, which isn't something we're used to with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. Mahomes has reminded us [over the past two weeks] why he's the best player in the NFL right now. I like the Chiefs quite a bit in this spot."
- R.J. White: Travis Kelce to win MVP. Our gambling guru sees some serious value in betting on Kelce as MVP. "I think the best value for MVP is playing Travis Kelce at 20-1. Kelce is having a big postseason with three touchdowns in his last two games." White also mentioned that he likes the MVP betting number for Patrick Mahomes (+130) and that it could make sense to bet on that instead of the Chiefs' moneyline (+105) if you think Kansas City is going to win the game.
If you want to hear every early best bet that the crew made today, then be be sure to listen to today's show by clicking here. You can also WATCH today's episode on YouTube by clicking here.
2. Five early bold predictions for the Super Bowl
Between now and Super Bowl Sunday, we will be making a lot of predictions about the game, so I thought I'd get things started off early here by offering five bold predictions from our Jordan Dajani.
- 1. Travis Kelce retires. "After his third Super Bowl win (and he even scores a TD), with Taylor Swift by his side as confetti falls from the sky, Kelce makes an eyebrow-raising comment concerning his future, saying he's going to take some time to ponder what's next. That ramps up retirement speculation, and Kelce ultimately does step away this offseason, just like his brother. "
- 2. Patrick Mahomes wins MVP. "MVP is a quarterback award, whether that be in the regular season or Super Bowl. I predict Mahomes will become the first player to win three Super Bowl MVPs in a five-year span. Another Super Bowl MVP would make him the third player in NFL history to win three Super Bowl MVPs, along with Joe Montana (3) and Tom Brady (5)."
- 3. Chiefs win as an underdog. "The 49ers opened up as 2.5-point favorite over the Chiefs, but the line immediately started moving in Kansas City's direction (The 49ers are currently -1.5). People realize getting Mahomes at plus money is an auto-bet. ... Mahomes is 10-1-1 ATS in his career as an underdog, and 9-3 straight up. He's also 3-0 SU as an underdog in his playoff career, with two of those wins coming over the last two weeks."
- 4. The game comes down to a fourth-quarter drive. "In the last Super Bowl matchup between these two teams, the Chiefs were down 10 points entering the fourth quarter. However, Mahomes' offense scored 21 unanswered points to win by 11 (31-20). We won't see that much scoring in the final stanza this time around, but the ball will be in Purdy's hands with a chance to win the game late."
- 5. Nick Bosa records 2.0 sacks. "The 49ers defense has struggled this postseason, allowing an average of 386 total yards per game, which ranks No. 6 among the eight teams that played at least two playoff games this year. Bosa is going to take it upon himself to be a game-changer. In 11 playoff games, Bosa has recorded 10 sacks. He got to Mahomes once during their last Super Bowl meeting. This time, he gets to the quarterback twice."
If you want to see Jordan's full explanation for each prediction, be sure to click here.
3. Ranking the 12 losing playoff teams based on their chances of getting to the Super Bowl next year
The NFL playoffs started with 14 teams, and now that we're down to two. That means there are 12 teams from this year's postseason that didn't make it to the Super Bowl. The only reason I'm pointing that out is because Cody Benjamin decided to rank those teams based on which has the best chance of getting to NEXT YEAR'S Super Bowl.
Here's how that list breaks down:
1. Ravens
2. Bills
3. Eagles
4. Lions
5. Cowboys
6. Texans
7. Packers
8. Dolphins
9. Rams
10. Browns
11. Steelers
12. Buccaneers
Although I totally agree with Cody's top-two teams, I do think the Eagles are probably ranked a little high. You could make the argument that they're the second-worst NFC team on this list, which would put them behind the Cowboys, Lions, Packers and Rams.
If you want to know see how Cody put his rankings together, you can see his full story here.
4. Chiefs and 49ers players NOT allowed to gamble in Las Vegas
The Chiefs and 49ers will be spending an entire week in Las Vegas, but they won't get to enjoy everything the city has to offer and that's mostly because the NFL has implemented a strict gambling policy for the Super Bowl.
Here's what you need to know:
- Chiefs and 49ers players are not allowed to gamble on ANYTHING. During the regular season, NFL players are allowed to gamble on almost anything that doesn't involve the NFL. When the two teams get to town next week, they won't be allowed to gamble on ANYTHING. They can't play casino games, they can't bet on sports. There's simply no gambling.
- How this differs from the normal NFL rule. During the regular season, NFL players can gamble in casinos AND bet on sports, except for the NFL. If any player who's NOT playing in the Super Bowl decides to make a trip to Vegas next week, they're allowed to gamble all they want with two exceptions: They can't bet on the NFL and they're not allowed to go into any sports books (unless they have to walk through one to get where they're going).
- Chiefs and 49ers will be staying far away from the strip. The NFL is doing its best to keep the Chiefs and 49ers from all the action. The two teams will be staying in separate hotels that are 25 miles away from Allegiant Stadium, which is located on the south end of the strip. The NFL definitely does not want to see any shenanigans next week.
There will be a lot of gambling going on in Las Vegas next week, but none of it will be coming from Chiefs or 49ers players. You can read more about the gambling policy here.
5. Every NFL team's MVP for the 2023 season
Now that the season is over for 30 of the NFL's 32 teams, we decided to take a look back at the year that was by going through and naming the MVP for each team in 2023.
For some teams, this is easy -- Josh Allen was definitely the Bills MVP -- but for other teams, it's not so easy.
Here's a look at five team MVPs that Tyler Sullivan came up with:
- Browns: Joe Flacco. "Of course, Myles Garrett is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate and a cornerstone to the Browns franchise, but I don't believe they make the playoffs without Joe Flacco."
- Cowboys: DaRon Bland. "The Cowboys have a number of players (Micah Parsons, Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, etc.) who could easily be the team MVP, but let's give it to Bland. The third-year corner led the NFL in interceptions, broke the NFL record for most interceptions returned for a touchdown and was named a first-team All-Pro because of it."
- Rams: Puka Nacua. "If not for C.J. Stroud, Puka Nacua would've been the runaway Offensive Rookie of the Year winner. The Rams wideout put together the greatest rookie year that a receiver has ever seen, breaking the single-season rookie record for receptions and receiving yards."
- Titans: Derrick Henry. "The Titans didn't have a good offensive line in 2023, but that didn't matter much for Derrick Henry. The veteran back still put up strong totals and continued to be the focal point of Tennessee's offense. His 1,381 yards from scrimmage were the fourth most of his career."
- Bengals: Trey Hendrickson. "Hendrickson continues to fly a bit under the radar as it relates to being one of the top pass-rushers in the NFL. He was a dominant piece for Cincinnati this season, playing in all 17 games and totaling 17.5 sacks on the year. Those sack totals were a career-high and ranked only behind Steelers star pass-rusher T.J. Watt."
If you want to know who was named MVP for your favorite team, be sure to check out Sullivan's full list here.
6. Extra points: Chiefs will be without star defender in Super Bowl
It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Chiefs star out for Super Bowl. The Chiefs will be missing a key defensive player in the Super Bowl after tests showed that Charles Omenihu has a torn ACL. The pass-rusher suffered the injury against the Ravens in the AFC title game. Omenihu, who came up with a huge strip-sack of Lamar Jackson in the Chiefs' win, finished third on the team with 7.0 sacks in 2023. You can read more about his injury here.
- Chargers set to hire a new general manager. Ravens director of player personnel Joe Hortiz is expected to be named the new GM of the Chargers. This move means that Hortiz will be making the jump from one Harbaugh brother to the other. The 48-year-old Hortiz had been with the Ravens since 1998 when he was hired as a personnel assistant. You can read more about his hiring here.
- Steelers president not happy with playoff drought. The Steelers haven't won a playoff game in seven years and team president Art Rooney II made it clear this week that he's not OK with that. "We've had enough of this," Rooney said. "It's time to get some wins; it's time to take these next steps." Rooney also expressed confidence in Mike Tomlin, but it will be interesting to see if he expresses that same confidence after the 2024 season if the Steelers don't win a playoff game.
- Deshaun Watson is recruiting Tee Higgins to Cleveland. With Tee Higgins set to be a free agent, Deshaun Watson is trying to recruit the Bengals receiver to Cleveland. "We're gonna take good care of you," Watson told quarterback trainer Quincy Avery on Avery's podcast. "The Cleveland fans are gonna love you to death. We got the Clemson ties. We ain't get to play with each other, but this is our opportunity." You can read more about Watson's pitch here.
