How the NFL's three hottest teams can crash the Super Bowl party: Jaguars, Texans and 49ers look dangerous

It's not how you start, it's how you finish. Nobody knows that better than the three hottest teams in the league right now. The Texans (seven straight), Jaguars (six straight) and 49ers (five in a row) have three of the longest win streaks in the league entering the stretch run. 

Safe to say it's a surprise to see them in this position. Houston started 0-3, and the Jaguars and 49ers were just above .500 around midseason. They're still not getting a ton of love for Super Bowl contention but the way this year is shaping up they should be taken as seriously as anyone.

Shortest odds to win Super Bowl LX (DraftKings)

Texans (eighth shortest Super Bowl odds: +1500)

The Texans have won seven straight games, including wins vs. the Jaguars, Bills, Colts and Chiefs (when Indianapolis and Kansas City were still competitive). Statistically, they have the best defense in the league, one that may be even good enough to overcome a below average offense to win a Super Bowl.

Their defense leads the NFL in EPA per game, points per drive and pass success rate. They can be the first team since the 2022 49ers (with DeMeco Ryans as their defensive coordinator) to finish first in scoring and total defense. They are allowing 16.6 points per game and 272.3 yards per game. The last team to hold teams to those marks in both categories was the 2014 Seahawks, who were a play away from winning back-to-back Super Bowls.

The Texans crowning achievement this year was holding Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes without a touchdown. They are one of 32 teams to face both in the same season and the only one to hold both without a touchdown per CBS Sports researcher Ryan Satsky. 

Will Anderson has terrorized quarterbacks all year. He has the most third-down pressures by any player in a season on record (46). It's more than the Bears entire team (34) this year. The Texans get pressure (second-highest rate in the league) without blitzing (eighth-lowest rate in the league) which plays right into the capable hands of lockdown corners Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter. This trio (Anderson, Stingley, Lassiter) were the Texans top defensive pick in three straight drafts from 2022-24 and could be the core that gets Houston to its first Super Bowl. 

The question in Houston is can their offense do enough? Their offensive line is atrocious and their run game is non-existent, yet they rank 16th in EPA per play during their win streak and Stroud is 13th in EPA per dropback since returning from injury. These two games really tell the story of inconsistency on this side of the ball. They rallied down 19 points in the fourth quarter vs. the Jaguars to win at the start of this win streak. However, we saw how cold they could get in Kansas City when they went three-and-out on all four drives in the third quarter. The biggest reason they won was because of Andy Reid's fourth-down gambles that backfired late in the game. 

The one thing they've done really well is take care of the ball, a perfect recipe with the defense they have. They have five turnovers and have allowed 19 points off turnovers since their 0-3 start, both the fewest in the league since Week 4. Plus, no team has more takeaways than Houston over that span (22). If the Texans continue to take care of the ball and C.J. Stroud can hit the occasional explosive pass to Nico Collins and company then this team could make a run to Super Bowl LX.

Jaguars (sixth shortest Super Bowl odds: +1200)

The Jaguars six-game streak started after blowing a 19-point lead in the fourth quarter to the Texans in Week 10. Perhaps that was the jolt they needed. They've won six straight games since, their longest win streak within a season since 1999. They've put up their most points per game (34.2) and best points per game differential (18.8) in a six-game span in franchise history. 

Trevor Lawrence has understandably gotten most of the headlines lately. He leads the NFL in total touchdowns (19) and yards per attempt (8.4) during the win streak and just became the fourth player in NFL history with 10+ total touchdowns and zero turnovers in a two-game span. He's throwing it downfield with confidence and has found instant chemistry with trade deadline acquisition Jakobi Meyers.

The part of the Jaguars team people aren't talking enough about is their defense, though. Jacksonville ranks 11th in offensive EPA per game and first in defensive EPA during the win streak. They also lead the NFL in scoring defense, points per drive allowed and yards per attempt allowed in the past six games after ranking below average across the board prior to that.

They've definitely faced an easier group of quarterbacks during the win streak (Justin Herbert, Jacoby Brissett, Cam Ward, Daniel Jones, Brady Cook, Bo Nix) after a murderer's row to begin the year (included Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Sam Darnold and Matthew Stafford). But, you can't ignore the schematic changes they've made on defense during that time, either. 

They are playing zone coverage at the highest rate in the league in the past six weeks (86%) and blitzing at the fifth-lowest rate (19%) after ranking near the league average in both categories through 10 weeks. Sitting back in coverage has worked wonders for a defense that had allowed an NFL-high 15 touchdown passes with the blitz through Week 10. 

Jaguars defense this season (with ranks)

With the Jaguars controlling the air on both sides of the ball during their streak (lead NFL in yards per pass attempt on offense and defense in span) maybe Jacksonville is actually the team to beat in the AFC.

49ers (seventh shortest Super Bowl odds: +1300)

I'll be the first person to tell you I wrote the 49ers off after Nick Bosa and Fred Warner suffered season-ending injuries. But, I'm slowly coming back around after a path has emerged for them to capture an elusive Super Bowl title in a year anyone can win it. So, why not the 49ers?

You need any advantage you can get and if the 49ers win out in games vs the Bears and Seahawks they would earn the top seed in the NFC and wouldn't have to play another game away from Levi's Stadium this season. In fact, Monday's game in Indianapolis would be their last game away from home if they win out up until Super Bowl LX, which is at Levi's Stadium. 

Kyle Shanahan's offense, the path to the one seed and injuries to contenders in the NFC (Micah Parsons and Davante Adams) suddenly have opened up a window for the 49ers. They have won five straight games, all by double digits, and have trailed for under four minutes in that span. They lead the NFL in points per game, points per drive and third down conversion rate during the win streak, which also coincides with Brock Purdy's return from his turf toe injury.

I also wrote Purdy off after his three-interception performance on "Monday Night Football" last month vs. the Panthers, but all of the sudden he is turning heads after a rough year and a half. It wasn't just the five-touchdown game at the Colts, either. Purdy is tied with Drake Maye for the NFL lead in EPA per dropback this season (0.23). 

He is providing historic production in an evolving 49ers offense that is now relying on moving the chains over explosive plays. He is putting up the best numbers in each of the following categories by any quarterback in the past 35 seasons:

• 47% of passes are resulting in first downs this year
• 62% of third-down passes are resulting in first downs
• 53% of third-and-long passes are resulting in first downs

It's incredible to note that someone called things like "game manager" and "YAC merchant" is putting up those kind of numbers with half of the YAC bros (Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk) out of the picture and his other top weapons (George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey) a little older and a step slower.

Purdy has been the best third-down passer in the NFL (albeit in a small sample size) despite averaging an NFL-low 2.7 YAC per completion on third downs this year. It's not just the lowest this year, it's the fourth-lowest by any quarterback in the past two decades. As you can see from the image below, no other qualified passer is in Purdy's galaxy this year when it comes to his third-down proficiency without the benefit of YAC.  That's a wild turn from 2023 when he averaged 6.1 YAC per completion on third downs. 

He's putting the ball where it needs to be this year and his average pass on these critical downs has traveled nearly three yards past the sticks. Purdy could not have handed the ball to Jennings in a better spot on this third-and-goal touchdown on Monday. 

Purdy has leaned on a 49ers trio during the win streak completing 80% of his passes for 8.7 yards per attempt and 12 touchdowns targeting George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey and Jauan Jennings. Jennings doesn't get enough credit as Purdy's go-to-target on third down. Purdy is 9-of-11 with nine first downs targeting Jennings on third down in the past five weeks. 

The 49ers rank 21st in explosive plays this season after ranking first from 2017-24 under Shanahan. Purdy's quick, accurate passing has helped the 49ers offense maintain its usual efficiency by keeping them on track on third down.

49ers offense Under Kyle Shanahan (with ranks)

Huge credit also goes to Christian McCaffrey, who leads the NFL in touches (372) and first downs this year (101) after missing 13 games last year with bilateral Achilles tendinitis and a PCL sprain. He's been a driving force in the 49ers methodical offense and is still one of the league's best chess pieces in the passing game as he's on pace for his third season with 100 catches and might be the first player with multiple seasons of 1,000 rush yards and 1,000 receiving yards. 

The 49ers offense hasn't punted in the last two games and they have a very small margin for error the way this defense has been playing. San Francisco ranks bottom 10 in the NFL in defensive EPA, plus success rate defending the run and the pass. They have the fewest sacks in the NFL and the lowest pressure rate since Nick Bosa went down in Week 3.

Robert Saleh is squeezing everything he can out of young defense that is among the league leaders in snaps from rookies this year. It'd be easy to continue writing the 49ers off with the schedule they've played this year and the injuries on defense, but if the defense starts to grow up quick then the rest of the NFL could be in trouble.